Main article: Mortgage in Russia
Sale of real estate for debts at auction
Main article: Sale of real estate for debts at auction
2022
44% of new mortgages received those who already spend more than 80% of income on debt servicing
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in October-December 2022, 44% of new mortgage loans were received by those who already spend the vast majority of income on debt servicing - more than 80%.
The volume of overdue mortgages for the purchase of housing under construction has decreased by 11% since the beginning of the year
The volume of mortgages overdue housing under construction since the beginning of 2022 has decreased by 11%. At the same time, the share of overdue debt in the primary market remains insignificant, for 11 months of 2022 it decreased from 0.2% to 0.16%. The dynamics of the deterioration of overdue mortgages will be influenced by a drop in sales in the market of new buildings, as well as an increase in mortgage rates. to the credits This collection agency "" Debt Consultant was reported on December 16, 2022.
 | Mortgage defaults in the housing market under construction do not greatly affect the overall situation with overdue mortgage loans, but if a couple of years ago the developers who delayed the commissioning of houses were partially to blame for the structure of non-payments at the construction site, now the situation has changed dramatically, - said Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency. - We see a slight increase in problem mortgages among investment borrowers who, in the wake of the growth in the cost of the "square," bought construction for further resale. It has become more difficult to find buyers, subsidized preferential programs for assignment do not work, and rates have begun to rise in the secondary housing market. |  |
According to the expert, the indicators of mortgages in the primary market, both for total debt and in terms of non-payments, depend on the efficiency of the borrowers themselves: after the completion of construction and registration of ownership rights, these loans go into the category of mortgages in the secondary market.
| | The decrease in the volume of problem mortgages in the primary market was influenced by the fact of a decrease in the number of problem real estate objects. Recently, there have been no bankruptcies of development companies, and the efforts of the state (through the Territory Development Fund and regional funds for the protection of the rights of equity holders) to combat long-term construction began to bring results. Debtors, in turn, act reasonably and strive to arrange the property for apartments as quickly as possible in order to sell the finished housing as soon as possible. When registering an apartment as an apartment, a mortgage loan leaves the category for "housing under construction" as standard, - said Denis Aksyonov. | |
In his opinion, the increase in the volume of overdue mortgages in the secondary housing market by 0.25% in October 2022 confirms the fact that the trend is increasing to shift problems from the new building to the secondary segment.
By, in to data Federal Registration Service January - September 2022, sales in new buildings Russia in decreased by 16%. The weighted average rate in the primary housing market increased to 10.6% per annum from 8.4% in October 2021. The weighted average for preferential"" programs also increased from 6% to 6.6% per annum.
At the beginning of September, at the risk of seizure by banks from owners - 10.8 thousand mortgage apartments
At the beginning of autumn banks Russia , 10.8 thousand mortgage apartments were at risk of seizure of housing from owners as a whole. In three years, their number has decreased 2.6 times. This conclusion was shared on September 23, 2022 by experts from the collection agency "" Debt Consultant based on the analysis, and. data Bank of Russia Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation Rosstat
At the beginning of autumn 2022, banks reported a portfolio of overdue mortgage debt in the amount of 58.2 billion rubles. This amount is equivalent to 10,848 apartments or 617 thousand square meters, if you extrapolate it to the average size of the housing area per resident of the Russian Federation (according to Rosstat for 2022 - 56.9 m2) and the average market value of one square meter in each of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (according to the Ministry of Construction). According to the conclusions of a previous study by experts of the Debt Consultant collection agency, in October 2019, the "apartment" equivalent of overdue mortgage debt of 72.3 billion rubles was 27,785 apartments (or 24,716 objects on average).
| | We provide a conditional benchmark for assessing the level of overdue mortgage debt, the actual number of apartments that can be put up for sale due to the impossibility of mortgage payments, unfortunately, is many times more in the country, "said Denis Aksyonov, general director of the Debt Consultant collection agency. - Of course, our model is based on the average price of a square in the Ministry of Construction, to which the social obligations of the state are tied, and on the average area of an apartment in Rosstat, which in some cases in a mortgage is still slightly overestimated. | |
The leading regions in terms of overdue debt, measured in the number of pledged apartments that can be put up for sale to pay off mortgage debt, are Moscow and the Moscow Region, Krasnoyarsk Territory (see Table 1 for the top 10 regions).
Table No. 1. The minimum estimated number of mortgage apartments, the loan for the purchase of which borrowers have ceased to repay
| | The reduction in the number of apartments that creditor banks can and, more importantly, must withdraw and put up for sale is associated with a decrease in the total portfolio of overdue mortgages, explains Denis Aksyonov. - Real estate prices increased significantly, as a result, borrowing debtors began to agree to pre-trial sale of apartments, repaying mortgage loans. Indirectly, this is also evident from the reduction in the number of sold apartments at the auction in enforcement proceedings, which we noted earlier. | |
According to the results of the first half of 2022, the number of completed trades decreased by 20% compared to the same period in 2021, amounting to 1,560 apartments or their parts (shares) (the study is available at the link).
Banks reflect overdue mortgages on the balance sheets with a non-payment period of more than 90 days. The estimate of the average number of problem mortgage apartments did not take into account apartments that have already passed into the ownership of banks as part of the execution of court decisions to pay off debts.
| | Our calculation does not include mortgage apartments for which banks sold mortgages to collection agencies. According to our expert assessment, for the completeness of the picture, mortgage overdue debt reflected on the balance sheets of banks must be multiplied by one and a half times, "said Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency. | |
The process of recovering mortgage loans takes 2-3 years if the borrower refuses to voluntarily implement the pledge. Time is needed for court proceedings, the execution of court decisions by the FSSP and public tenders, for which the apartment is put up at a discount of up to 35% of the estimated value.
The full version of the table with an estimate of the number of problem mortgage apartments by region is available here.
The volume of overdue mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction for the year decreased by 29%
The level of overdue mortgage debt on loans issued for the purchase of housing under construction in monetary terms is gradually decreasing. This was announced on July 19, 2022 by the company Debt Consultant (Doc). At the same time, the number of regions in which the growth of problem mortgages was recorded doubled.
For 12 months, the volume of overdue mortgage debt secured by equity agreements (DDUs) in the country as a whole fell by 29% or 2 billion rubles, to the level of 4.9 billion rubles. From the beginning of the year to June 1, 2022, the rate of decline slowed down to 11% in five months (which is equivalent to 2.2% per month or 26% in annual terms). At the same time, the number of regions with the growth dynamics of problematic mortgages in the primary housing market has doubled: from the beginning of 2022, it was recorded in 29 regions, while from June 2021 to June 2022 - only 15.
| | Absolute figures depend on the disrupted deadlines for putting houses into operation, the duration of the process of registering rights and issuing mortgages, the impossibility of assigning under preferential mortgage programs, and the conclusion of transactions by the creditor bank to assign problem loans, "said Denis Aksyonov, general director of the Debt Consultant collection agency. - The growth in terms of the number of regions is most likely associated with technical indicators and affects the unit number of loans. | |
According to the expert, in the largest regions in terms of overdue debt in the primary market (Moscow, Moscow region, Krasnodar Territory, St. Petersburg and Voronezh region) - the situation is positive. {{quote 'For the 1 half of 2022 year, out of the top 5 regions, only in St. Petersburg recorded a 10% growth, in the rest - a decrease. This means that the regional authorities and the Territory Development Fund are completing the facilities of bankrupt developers as much as possible, "Denis Aksyonov believes. }}
Source: Debt Consultant, CBR
| | Mortgages in the housing market under construction are riskier when compared with lending for the purchase of finished housing: they do not allow you to receive rental income when the financial situation in the borrower's family changes, "said Denis Aksyonov. - As of July 2022, the growth of mortgage portfolios of banks will be inextricably linked with the subsidized mortgage program for housing under construction, so in the near future we predict an increase in overdue debts in this segment. | |
2021: Reduction in the volume of overdue mortgage loans by 18% to 15 billion rubles
At mortgage credits banks the end of 2021, the volume of overdue balances decreased by 18% or 15 billion. rubles A year earlier, in 2020, banks faced an increase in non-payments, during that period the portfolio of problem debts increased by 7%. According to analysts at the collection agency "," Debt Consultant the sharp decline in the indicator is confirmed by an active increase in demand for collateral real estate due to the widespread rise in prices in 2021. The company "Debt Consultant" announced this on February 2, 2022.
At the end of 2021, in just three regions of the country, the volume of overdue mortgage payments continued to increase: in the Republic of Ingushetia (by 30%), in Ivanovo (by 7%) and Leningrad regions (by 5%). The maximum reduction was noted in Novgorod (-40%) and Pskov (-33%), as well as in the Republic of Karelia (-37%).
Table 1. Regions are leaders and outsiders in the dynamics of overdue mortgage debt in 2021.
The full version of the table can be found at the link.
| | The main reason for the decrease in mortgage delinquency is a significant increase in real estate prices and, as a result, sale at auction or voluntary sale from under collateral, - Denis Aksyonov, general director of the Debt Consultant collection agency, estimates the fall in overdue debt. - In a short period of time, banks recovered mortgage debt, which was accumulated for three years. | |
In 2021, the number of banks issuing mortgage loans for the purchase of finished housing decreased by 5%, in the market under construction - by 12%.
| | The market is gradually monopolized thanks to state subsidy programs, and the number of banks ready to provide refinancing, one of the effective tools to reduce the debt burden, is also decreasing, the expert summarizes. - At the same time, borrowers for 2021 became more, financially are educated a third of debtors took advantage of the increase in real estate prices and voluntarily, with the consent of the creditor, realized the pledge in order to pay off debts without worsening credit history and their future. | |
2020
Overdue mortgage debt in Russia increased by 7% over the year
On February 4, 2021, the Debt Consultant (Doc), after studying the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, told TAdviser that in 2020 the volume of overdue payments on mortgage loans increased by 7%, or by 4.95 billion rubles, exceeding 77.5 billion rubles. On mortgages in the primary housing market, growth dynamics exceeded the indicators of all recent years of statistics by 19%, or 1.09 billion rubles.
In terms of the share of overdue loans in current debt, 2020 may seem successful: the share of problem debt decreased in 12 months from 1.1% in January to 0.9% by the end of December. Absolute figures showed accelerating growth, by 4447 million rubles, including 1086 million on mortgages for housing under construction. The share of overdue loans secured by DDU (equity agreements) in the total volume of problem mortgages increased by 1 percentage point, from 8% to 9%.
| | The overdue debt figures do not take into account borrowers who first faced problems in debt servicing in the IV quarter of 2020. Also, borrowers who took advantage of credit holidays were not fully included in the statistics, but the grace period was not enough to restore solvency. For these reasons, we predict an increase in the volume of overdue debt already in the first quarter of 2021, noted Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency.
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Source: CBR, Debt Consultant
Overdue loans fall into the category of overdue loans after banks stop receiving payments on them for more than three months. As a rule, after this moment, borrowers completely cease to service the debt, no more than a quarter of them manage to restore solvency.
The maximum increase in overdue mortgage debt occurred in the Kaliningrad region (5.7 times, up to 1.97 billion rubles) and Sevastopol (2.4 times, up to 31 million). The largest growth rate of mortgages in the primary market was recorded in the Republic of Crimea (6 times), Ivanovo (2.9 times) and Astrakhan (2.6 times).
In the regions directly designated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as having formed the greatest demand for preferential mortgages due to the large share of investment loans for housing under construction, the growth rate of overdue debt under DDU is below average: in Moscow, the volume of problem mortgage debts increased by 39%, the Moscow region by 22%, in St. Petersburg - by 2%.
Source: CBR, Debt Consultant
| | The year was difficult for borrowers and creditors, the fall in income due to coronavirus restrictions accelerated the process of emergence of problem debtors, the introduction of credit holidays smoothed out the possible spring peak of non-payment takeoff, redistributing it to autumn and winter months, and preferential mortgages showed that banks need to take a balanced approach to issuing loans for real estate under construction, since this segment is the most susceptible to an increase in non-payments due to an increased financial burden on the family budget of borrowers for the construction period , commented Denis Aksyonov.
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The volume of overdue debt at the end of the year could have been slightly more if it had not been for the formed trend, when debtors themselves come out with an initiative to sell collateral objects to pay off debt. Indirectly, this fact also confirms the decrease in the number of apartments put up for public auction by bailiffs in 2020.
| | Rising real estate prices made housing less affordable, but helped mortgage debtors, because an increase in the price per square meter for them became an advantage, since after the sale of an apartment at a market price, it became possible to return initial investments in the form of live money, added Denis Aksyonov.
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By June, the growth rate of overdue mortgages increased fivefold
On July 13, 2020, the Debt Consultant reported that by June 2020, the growth rate of overdue mortgage debt increased fivefold, from January to May 2020, the volume of loans for which borrowers stopped paying increased by 2.6 billion rubles. A year earlier, for the same period, the volume of overdue debt increased by only 541 million rubles. Analysts of the Debt Consultant collection agency came to such conclusions after analyzing the statistical data of the Bank of Russia.
| | The acceleration of the accumulation of overdue mortgage debt does not cause concern either the regulator or creditors, formally they are guided by the share of overdue debt in the total portfolio. This share due to the active issuance of mortgages decreased to 0.96% as of June 2020 from 1.2% in January 2019, says Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency. - In absolute terms, with an average loan of 2.3 million rubles, overdue mortgage loans mean that another 1,100 families in the country will have to part with their housing in the near future. | |
In general, as of June 1, 2020, residents of the Russian Federation stopped paying 75.14 billion rubles on mortgage loans. According to the methodology of the Debt Consultant collection agency, this volume is comparable to 25.7 thousand apartments purchased on a mortgage and which should be transferred to the ownership of banks. In December 2019, the Debt Consultant collection agency, based on its own data and statistics, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation estimated the volume of accumulated overdue mortgage loans in the form of 24 thousand apartments (study "Apartment issue: banks can put up for sale more than 24,000 apartments").
| | It should be understood that the figures for overdue mortgage debts reflect non-payments on loans that ceased to flow to banks 90 or more days ago, that is, the housing market faced only non-payments of the month of March, "sums up Denis Aksyonov. - In April and May, the solvency of borrowers decreased even more noticeably. Banks adapted their restructuring programs to crisis conditions, many borrowers took advantage of the granted grace periods. But whether they can regain their solvency is a big question. | |
According to the results of five months of 2020, the increase in overdue debts was noted in half of the regions of the country, the greatest dynamics in them is presented in Table No. 1.
You can read more about the growth rate of overdue mortgage debt in the regional context here.
2019
Overdue mortgage debt in Russia increased by 700 million to 73.9 billion rubles
On March 30, 2020, it became known that for the year from February 2019 to February 2020, overdue mortgage debt in Russia increased by 700 million to 73.9 billion rubles. Residents of half of the country's regions faced difficulties in repaying loans. These conclusions were reached by the Debt Consultant analytical and collection agency after analyzing the data of the Bank of Russia and its own portfolio of problem debts.
As reported, for 13 months (from February 2019 to February 2020), the volume of mortgage loans for which payments stopped grew by 699 million rubles and reached 73.96 billion rubles. At the same time, in just one month - February 2020, the volume increased by 120 million rubles. The size of overdue mortgage loans is comparable to the total mortgage debt in such regions as the Arkhangelsk region (residents of the region issued a mortgage for 70.4 billion rubles) or the Tula region (64.9 billion rubles).
| | The statistics include mortgage borrowers who have not paid for three or more months, that is, those who began to experience problems in October-November 2019, when the economic situation in the country was more prosperous and mortgage rates were lower by one to two percentage points. We expect a surge in mortgage defaults in the near future, in the statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation this can be seen closer to May-June 2020. The plans announced by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to provide credit holidays will not solve the problems of mortgage borrowers, but will postpone them in the payment calendar for exactly as long as they are approved - for six months. By the end of 2020, we expect a sharp increase in overdue mortgage debt and, as a result, the active entry into the secondary housing market of mortgage apartments. told Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency | |
According to him, the level of overdue mortgage debt in bank portfolios remains at the level of 1%, but the trend towards an increase in interest rates will increase the share of problem mortgage loans due to a decrease in the volume of issuance and the actual curtailment by banks of refinancing programs for previously issued mortgages.
The average growth rate of overdue mortgage debt in the country for 13 months (from February to February) amounted to 16% among regions in which the volume of problem mortgage debts increased. So, 2.3 times overdue mortgage debt increased in Sevastopol, 1.7 times - Karachay-Cherkessia, by a third - in the Kostroma region (data on the top 15 regions are given in table No. 1).
The average rate of reduction in overdue debt over 13 months was 10% among the regions in which it was declining, which is 1.5 times lower than its growth rate. Thus, problematic mortgage debt decreased by a quarter in the Republic of Karelia, by 22% in the Amur Region, by 21% in the Novgorod Region (data on the top 15 regions are given in Table No. 2).
The volume of problem mortgage loans for the year increased by 13% to 5.8 billion rubles
On March 11, 2020, the Debt Consultant collection agency reported that in January 2020, the growth rate of overdue mortgage debt for the purchase of housing under construction exceeded the average monthly pace in 2019 by 4.6 times and amounted to 5%. Overdue debt in January increased in absolute terms by 297 million rubles compared to December 2019. The situation speaks of the approaching crisis of non-payments on mortgages for certain objects of housing under construction. Such conclusions were reached by analysts of the Debt Consultant collection agency after analyzing the data of the Bank of Russia and its own portfolio of problem debts.
For 12 months of 2019, the volume of problem mortgage loans secured by equity agreements (DDUs) increased by 13% or 651 million rubles to 5.8 billion rubles. In a number of regions, overdue mortgage arrears for housing under construction showed multiple growth. So, 7 times it grew in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, 2.8 times - the Trans-Baikal Territory, 2.2 times - the Perm Territory, 2.1 times - the Novgorod Region (data on the top 15 regions are given in Table No. 1).
In January 2020, overdue mortgage debt in the primary market increased immediately by 297 million rubles, or 5% compared to the previous month, exceeding 6.1 billion rubles. The leading regions were the Kostroma region (1.4 times), the Amur region (1.3 times), the Tver region (an increase of 29%). Data on the top 15 regions with the maximum growth dynamics of overdue debt are given in Table No. 2.
| | "Traditionally, borrowers who have taken a loan for the purchase of real estate very rarely allow delay in the first year of the loan term, if they face a deterioration in the financial situation, then later. During this period, the house manages to build itself and the loan deposit goes into the category of the secondary real estate market, that is, under normal construction terms, there is not enough time to spoil mortgage statistics in the primary housing market, " noted Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant Collection Agency | |
According to him, the decrease in overdue debt in the secondary mortgage market by 0.4% at the end of 2019 just suggests that the developer has time to build a house, borrowers - to arrange the property in order to sell the apartment for settlements with the lender. "There is either nothing to sell in the primary market, or it is extremely difficult to do this without a significant loss of initial investments," the expert noted.
In February 2020, the Debt Consultant collection agency, based on its own data and statistics, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation estimated the annual level of reduction in total overdue mortgage debt (primary and secondary housing markets) by 0.4%.
The trend for a sharp increase in overdue debt is unlikely to slow down in the coming year, despite the fact that the share of overdue mortgage loans under DDU is still in 0.3% of total debt comfortable for banks, against 1% in mortgage portfolios for finished housing, noted in the Debt Consultant.
| | "We believe that by the end of the year the share of problem mortgages in the housing market under construction will grow to 0.7-1% due to a reduction in the volume of loans issued secured by housing under construction and the transition to the problem category of loans from even more families," noted Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant Collection Agency | |
The volume of overdue mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction at the beginning of November increased by 17% (to 5.9 billion rubles)
On December 11, 2019, the Debt Consultant reported that overdue mortgage debt in the primary housing market is growing 1.5 times faster than the total debt, and the share of mortgages secured by equity agreements (DDUs) in the total mortgage portfolios of banks is decreasing in 80% of the country's regions. Such conclusions are contained in the study of the Debt Consultant collection agency based on the analysis of data from the Bank of Russia.
The volume of overdue mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction (mortgage secured by DDU) in Russia as a whole at the beginning of November 2019 increased by 17% or 882 million rubles to 5.942 billion rubles.
The largest share of problem mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction in the total mortgage debt portfolio in the primary housing market was in the Chechen Republic (1.75%), Perm Territory (1.47%) and Saratov Region (1.23%). The share of delinquency for the year increased in almost all regions.
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| | Overdue mortgage debt on housing in houses under construction depends not only on borrowers, but also on developers - the more time before the end of the term [construction explains Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency
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The total mortgage debt secured by equity agreements (DDU) as of November 01, 2019 increased by 12% to 1.47 trillion rubles over 12 months. At the same time, in 69 out of 86 regions of the Russian Federation, the share of loans in the primary housing market in the total mortgage portfolio is decreasing. The leaders in the decline for 12 months as of November 1, 2019 were the Tomsk region (-14.28%), the Trans-Baikal Territory (-13.56%) and the Kemerovo Region (-9.11%).
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| | It is difficult to work with overdue debts in the primary housing market, since there is no liquid collateral that can be sold and repaid a loan. "Primary" cannot be leased for additional income, as debtors often do in the secondary market. Overdue mortgage debt in the primary housing market is, among other things, the result of unsuccessful investments in the primary market. In theory, borrowers taking loans secured by claim rights should have a financial position sufficient to wait out possible construction delays, says Denis Aksyonov
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The volume of overdue mortgage real estate exceeded 24 thousand apartments
On December 6, 2019 Debt advisor , it reported that the accumulated banks volume of overdue mortgages credits is at least 24,000 apartments in the secondary housing market or 1.38 million square meters. Their inhabitants can be completely populated by four average small towns. This is the conclusion reached Russia by analysts of the collection agency based on the analysis, and. data Bank of Russia Ministry of Construction RUSSIAN FEDERATION Rosstat
The leading regions in terms of the number of pledged apartments that can be put up for sale to pay off mortgage debt are Moscow, Tyumen Region and Krasnoyarsk Territory (see Table 1 for the top 15 regions). With a one-time offer for the sale of all real estate objects, the cost of apartments on the secondary market in each region may decrease by 5-7%.
| Region | Overdue mortgage debt, billion rubles, as of 01.11.2019 | Minimum number of apartments |
| Москва | 14 029 | 1 976 |
| Московская область | 7 455 | 1 923 |
| Тюменская область | 3 025 | 1 120 |
| Красноярский край | 2 420 | 910 |
| Краснодарский край | 2 519 | 907 |
| Челябинская область | 1 569 | 818 |
| Свердловская область | 2 139 | 687 |
| Санкт-Петербург | 3 314 | 680 |
| Пермский край | 1 785 | 654 |
| Иркутская область | 1 591 | 625 |
| Ростовская область | 1 584 | 584 |
| Новосибирская область | 1 654 | 567 |
| Ставропольский край | 1 120 | 554 |
| Самарская область | 1 271 | 536 |
| Ханты-Мансийский автономный округ-Югра | 1 550 | 483 |
Source: Debt Consultant, Bank of Russia
| | This is the estimated minimum without correction factors. Banks reflect overdue mortgages on the balance sheets with a non-payment period of more than 90 days. It is this category of mortgage debts that we transform into potential for the sale of an apartment - in the event of problems with debt servicing, the sale of collateral is a profitable tool for both the lender and the borrower, commented Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency
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The number of apartments, the mortgage for the purchase of which has ceased to be serviced, is growing.
| | Each rule has its own exceptions, there are borrowers who have not made a single payment, there are those who stop paying in recent terms, but in general, banks received problems with mortgage loans issued in the post-crisis 2016-2017 years, the expert noted. | |
The assessment of the average number of problem mortgage apartments in the regions did not take into account apartments that have already passed into the ownership of banks as part of the execution of court decisions to pay off debts. So, for 10 months of 2019, overdue mortgage debt on bank balance sheets decreased by 847 million rubles, which is estimated at 289 apartments.
| | We did not take into account that when applying for a mortgage, a down payment is required. Also, our calculation did not include mortgage apartments, mortgages for which banks have already sold to collection agencies. We can safely assume that for an objective assessment of residential real estate, the pricing of which every month is increasingly influenced by the former mortgage apartments put up for sale with a discount of 10-30%, our minimum estimated indicators must be multiplied by one and a half times, emphasized Denis Aksyonov, General Director of the Debt Consultant collection agency
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The process of recovering mortgage loans takes 2-3 years if the borrower refuses to voluntarily implement the pledge. Time is needed for court proceedings, the execution of court decisions by the FSSP and public tenders, for which the apartment is put up at a discount of up to 35% of the estimated value.
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the volume of overdue mortgage debt in the 10 months of 2019 reached 72.3 billion rubles. According to Rosstat, on average, the total area of an apartment in Russia at the end of 2018 reaches 55.7 square meters. There are two methods for assessing the market value per square meter of finished housing: the assessment of the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation, updated once every six months, it is used for social payments for the purchase of real estate from the state budget. The second assessment is the operational data of Rosstat.
The increase in the number of divorces leads to an increase in overdue mortgage debt (+ 7% to 78 billion rubles )
The increase in the number of divorces leads to an increase in overdue mortgage debt. At the same time, an increase in the age of those who marry has a positive effect on a decrease in the growth rate of delinquency on bank balance sheets. These conclusions were reached by experts from the Dolgovoy Consultant collection agency (research data were published in July 2019).
The volume of problematic mortgage debt on bank balance sheets in 2018 increased by 4.91 billion rubles, or 7%, to 78.03 billion rubles compared to the results of 2017. And it was in 2017 that the peak of divorce proceedings in the country fell - 4.2 cases per 1000 inhabitants or 611 thousand divorces according to Rosstat. A year earlier, there were 4.1 cases of divorce and 0% increase in overdue debt.
| | "Of those in divorce proceedings, half of mortgage borrowers begin to violate the loan payment schedule even before receiving a divorce certificate. After 3-4 months, on the strength of six months, a third of them go into the category of problematic, that is, payments on loans are partially or completely stopped, "comments Denis Aksenov, General Director of the Dolgovoy Consultant collection agency. | |
According to him, the increase in overdue mortgage loans in 2018 is only indirectly associated with an increase in the number of divorces recorded by state statistics in 2017.
| | "Of course, it is impossible to identify a direct dependence of a stamp in a passport or stamp certificate of divorce on the dynamics of the volume of overdue debts, but, according to our assessment, civil status of at least a quarter affects the quality of mortgage loan service," the expert believes. | |
The reasons for the termination of payments on a mortgage loan are the unresolved debt obligations of the parties after the divorce process.
"At the time of the decision to end the marriage, unfortunately, most spouses are on such an emotional level that they do not allow them to think judiciously. If there were no minor children in the family, then the marriage is dissolved without trial. The state does not interfere and does not control the process of dividing the property of former spouses, giving them the right to independently resolve property disputes in the courts. And the former spouses file lawsuits only at fundamental points when they are trying to divide the property, and not credit obligations, "notes Denis Aksyonov.
Due to the legal nihilism of borrowers, lenders learn about the fact of divorce last in the chain of family values. However, in 99% of cases, the courts side with the creditor: any debt must be repaid. Most of the former spouses are increasing the volume of debts, believing that it is the former partner who is reported to take on all obligations to pay for loans.
| | "Unfortunately, when a family breaks up, the established approaches to paying debts in it are violated. If the income of one of the spouses was directed to mortgage payments, and the income of the second - provided for the current spending of the family, then upon divorce this oral agreement is violated. And members of the former cell of society have to reconfigure their lives and financial principles, which most of our citizens are not ready for, "comments the general director of the Debt Consultant collection agency. | |
Rosstat data do not contain statistics on divorces by age of former spouses. It could identify the low number of divorces from couples at a more mature age and determine the responsibility of those who marry to mortgage debts. Thus, over the past five years, the age of marriage has significantly increased, which may have a positive effect on reducing the share of overdue debts due to a decrease in the number of divorces in the medium term.
For example, at the end of 2018, the share of grooms marrying at the age of 18-24 years decreased by 2.2 percentage points (pp) to 19.1% compared to 2015, the share of brides of the same age decreased by 2.5%. On the contrary, the proportion of grooms and brides marrying in the more mature age category - over 35 - increased by 3.3 and 3.7 pp, respectively.
| | "The more resilient the family, the lower the lender's risks on potentially distressed mortgages. Banks gradually learned to protect not only their interests or the interests of minors in mortgage lending, it gradually began to resort to the requirement for the mandatory allocation of shares in real estate acquired in a mortgage. Such measures increase the responsibility of borrowers to pay debts. However, we did not reveal the impact of mortgages on family preservation, "summed up Denis Aksyonov, general director of the Debt Consultant collection agency. | |
According to the BKI "Equifax" and SRO "NAPKA," according to the results of the 1st half of 2019, there are a total of 25 thousand mortgage agreements in Russia, which are in the status of delay for 90 or more days. As the study shows, of this number of borrowers, only 4 thousand are divorced or at the stage of divorce proceedings. Thus, this represents about 20% of all overdue debts in this segment. It is interesting to note that about 40% after the decision to divorce admit insignificant delays in payments associated with an internal conflict, but after a while most of them manage to resolve this conflict.
It is interesting to note that, if among those who are not burdened with loan obligations, the share of divorces varies from 10 to 20%, then among mortgage borrowers it is minimal - about 2%.
2016: Increase in overdue mortgage debt by 14% to 124 billion rubles
The volume of overdue mortgage debt increased by 14% in 2016: from 108.9 to 124.4 billion rubles. and amounted to 4.2% of the total loan debt on ruble mortgages.
The largest annual growth rates of overdue mortgage debt are observed in Kalmykia (+ 258%), Pskov region (+ 144%), Tuva (+ 95%), Rep. Altai (+ 87%), Trans-Baikal Territory (+ 76%), Karelia (+ 76%), Rep. Sakha (+ 74%), Mari-El (+ 73%), Murmansk region (+ 72%), Kirov and Ivanovo regions (+ 70% each).
It is important to take into account that such significant growth rates arise, first of all, due to the effect of the "low base" (that is, initially an extremely small amount of overdue debt) in these regions. Mortgage portfolios in these regions are still of fairly high quality, and the share of overdue debts in them is significantly lower than in the whole country. Thus, in Kalmykia, the share of overdue mortgage debt is 2.3% (114.6 million rubles), in the Pskov region - 0.8% (87.6 million rubles), and in Tuva - 1.5% (73.0 million rubles).
A decrease in the volume of overdue mortgage debt was noted in the Tver region. (-12%), Kamchatka Territory (-8%) and Kursk region. (-2%). Extremely moderate growth rates are observed in the Penza region. (+ 4%), Mordovia (+ 6%), Arkhangelsk, Volgograd region. and in Moscow and the Moscow region. (+ 8% each).
The highest share of overdue mortgage debt is noted in Ingushetia - 13.4% (41.9 million rubles), Moscow and the Moscow region. - 11.1% (70.3 billion rubles), Chelyabinsk region. - 7.1% (6.1 billion rubles), in the Kaliningrad region. - 7.0% (841.4 million rubles), Tomsk region - 4.8% (1.2 billion rubles), Krasnodar Territory - 4.7% (3.4 billion rubles), Perm Territory - 4.0% (2.6 billion rubles), Altai Territory - 3.9% (1.2 billion rubles), Karachay-Cherkessia - 3.7% (154 million rubles). In general, only in 6 regions of Russia, the share of overdue mortgage debt exceeds the average value of 4.2%.
The lowest share of overdue debt in the total loan debt on mortgages was noted in the Magadan region. - 0.3% (23.2 million rubles), Sakhalin region - 0.4% (43.7 million rubles), Murmansk region - 0.5% (72.3 million rubles), Karelia - 0.6% (92.1 million rubles), Chuvashia - 0.6% (124.0 million rubles), Kirov region - 0.6% (112, 3 million rubles), Arkhangelsk region - 0.6% (204.4 million rubles), Oryol region - 0.7% (77.4 million rubles), Mari El - 0.7% (63.6 million rubles), Khakassia - 0.7% (44.2 million rubles), Rep. Sakha - 0.7% (370.4 million rubles).
Notes
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