Main article: Economy of Russia
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Main article: A mortgage in Russia
Raiffeisenbank: The volume of shaky, problem and bad loans in Russia reached 8.5 trillion rub
The volume of shaky, problem and bad loans in a banking system of Russia reached 8.5 trillion rubles. Such data are provided by Raiffeisenbank at the beginning of July, 2020.
From the general array of troubled assets banks covered with the created reserves on possible losses only slightly more than a half - 4.9 trillion rubles.
Thus, without covering there are left potentially default credits of 3.6 trillion rubles. At the same time the capital stock in a banking system for May 1, 2020 made 4.2 trillion rubles - on so much own means of banks exceeded minimum allowed level (8% for conventional banks and 10% - for backbone).
In other words, full redundancy of troubled assets can leave a banking system practically without "safety cushion". Moreover, during creation of reserves in full the sufficiency indicator for some systemically important banks would fall below minimum allowed level.
That it did not occur, the Central Bank entered regulatory eases: it is authorized to banks not to recognize deterioration in credit quality of borrowers if it occurred owing to COVID-19, and not to create reserves on such credits.
The scale of the implemented credit risk is confirmed by data on the basis of form 0409115 which are still available only for March, analysts of bank specify: the volume of non-standard, shaky, problem and bad loans jumped by 1.48 trillion rubles. At the same time on assets of 370 billion rubles "return of means has the probability, close to zero".
NBKI: The quantity of the consumer loans issued by banks in May decreased in a year by 44.7%
According to 4,000 creditors transferring data to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBCH) in May, 2020 it was issued to 0.82 million credits for purchase of consumer goods (consumer loans) that is 44.7% less in comparison with the same period of 2019 (in May, 2019 – 1.48 million units) (Table 1). On June 16, 2020 the NBKI reported about it.
At the same time in comparison with the last month, in May, 2020 growth of issue of consumer loans - for 22.4% was mentioned (in April, 2020 – 0.67 million units).
In turn, the average personal credit rating (PCR) of the borrower on the consumer credits in a year did not change and in May, 2020 made 633 points (the minimum value – 300 points, maximum – 850 points)
In May, 2020 the greatest number of consumer loans in regions of the Russian Federation was issued in Moscow (33.3 thousand units), the Moscow region (30.6 thousand units), the Republic of Bashkortostan (30.0 thousand units), Krasnodar Krai (28.1 thousand units) and Sverdlovsk region (26.1 thousand units).
Reduction of issue of consumer loans in May in comparison with the same period of 2019 it was mentioned practically in all regions of the country. At the same time the most serious dynamics of decrease (among 30 leading regions on volumes of the issued credits of this type) in May, 2020 was shown by Moscow (-51.7%), the Tyumen region (-51.4%), Krasnodar Krai (-51.3%), the Moscow region (-50.9%) and also Stavropol Krai (-49.3%) (Table 2).
|Falling of issue on consumer loans in May, 2020 in comparison with the same period of 2019 was quite essential – more than for 40%, - the marketing director of NBKI Alexey Volkov believes. – Risk-management of banks still adheres to conservative approach when crediting citizens, in April-May consumer loans were issued only to those citizens whose level of a debt load and value of the personal credit rating (PCR) were at the high level. And the number of requests of these citizens for the credits in April-May, 2020 decreased more than by 70%. It means that people select tactics of decrease in the debt load, restrictions of consumption and, as a result, more careful relation to acceptance of debt obligations.|
NAPKA: Debtors began a thicket to refer to financial difficulties
On May 6, 2020 NAPKA company reported that events of the last month had an impact on solvency of the population. The first the borrowers having one or several unsecured loans got into risk group. According to the statistics, such clients for May, 2020 already about 28 million people, i.e. about 40% of economically active population. Whether they will be able to continue to service earlier undertaken obligations, will show time. According to forecasts of NAPKA if support from the government works, then the number of the debtors who came for delay should not exceed 5.7 million people against 5.2 million for May, 2020.
However, according to NAPKA if to speak about those who had problems with payments already earlier and the overdue loan, then here a situation more difficult has.
In 2019 about 50% of debtors referred to financial difficulties. And financial difficulties were caused by the different reasons: falling of level of income (30%), impossibility to cope with the credit loading (20%), work loss (18%), a lack of available funds because of increase in prices (17%), family circumstances (5%), unplanned acquisitions (10%).
For the beginning of May, 2020 the share of those who refer to financial difficulties grew by 10 items and makes about 60%: falling of level of income (40%), impossibility to cope with the credit loading (10%), work loss (30%), a lack of available funds because of increase in prices (20%). In spite of the fact that debtors directly refer to a coronavirus upon only in isolated cases – no more than 1%, however in the company note that the pandemic became the powerful factor which negatively affected debtors.
|For May, 2020 we did not record splash in addresses concerning providing credit vacation or decrease in the amount of monthly payment. It was affected by several factors. As a rule, monthly payment to the collection agency working within the assignment agreement is, less, than to bank, and already is at the level, rather acceptable for the debtor. Secondly, it is quite possible that clients have a certain stock of means which allows them to continue to repay the debt in full. If the situation with the mode of self-isolation lasts 1.5-2 more months, then the number of addresses will grow and can be 20% of all debtors by the end of 2020.|
Elman Mekhtiyev, the president of SRO NAPKA told
The biggest credits take in Moscow and St. Petersburg
On January 27, 2020 the Raiffeisenbank company reported that as showed a research in Moscow and St. Petersburg take the credits for large sums and pay them quicker. Inhabitants of the center of Russia and the Volga cities, on the contrary, take rather small loans for longer term. Most often loans use for repair, construction and purchase of the car.
According to the company, in the central Russia citizens prefer to take the credits for rather small amounts and long term. According to a research of Raiffeisenbank, the average credit amount in this macroregion makes about 360 thousand rubles. Small loans are preferred also by residents of the Volga cities — about 380 thousand rubles.
|For January, 2020 the consumer loan is utilized most often for the solution of routine tasks. It is not obligatory for client to specify the loan purpose, however most often clients note that the credit is necessary on repair, construction or purchase of the car. Much less often the loan is taken on purchase of home appliances or furniture — for this purpose there are credit cards. In Raiffeisenbank the minimum rate on a cash loan is 8.99% per annum - it is an easy and profitable way of the solution of such tasks.|
Andrey Spivakov, the managing director for credit retail products of Raiffeisenbank told
Income of 26% of borrowers does not exceed 50 thousand rubles a month. From them 8.8% of borrowers live in Moscow and the Northwest Federal District (NFD), and 17% — in other regions of the country. 41% of clients locate an income of 51-100 thousand rubles per month, among them are significant more Muscovites and residents of the Northwestern Federal District (25%). Thus, in these two regions the income of borrowers is higher.
For January, 2020 the average term of the credit makes 4.3 years or 51 months. At the same time borrowers try to return the credit quicker — on average, for 2 years, statistics showed. At the conclusion of the loan agreement the "shortest" loans are recorded in Ivanovo, Kazan and Kemerovo. Here the loan term was 3.9-4.2 years. On the "longest" credits residents of Blagoveshchensk, Izhevsk and Kirov — expected 5.3-5.8.
The lowest monthly payment on a consumer loan is recorded in Stary Oskol, Kirov and Ivanovo — here it made 5-7 thousand rubles. Most of all on the credit pay in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Surgut — 12-15.5 thousand rubles.
Russians owed to banks more than 17.6 trillion rubles
On February 4, 2020 the National Association of the Professional Collection Agencies (NAPCA) reported that at the end of 2019 Russians owed to banks more than 17.6 trillion rubles, from them about 740-750 billion rubles without penalties and a penalty fee are the share of arrears (on reporting system of RAS). Thus, the share of arrears makes about 4-4.2%.
It should be noted that the previous year the volume of arrears of individuals to banks did not exceed 757.5 billion rubles, and its share in a portfolio was up to standard – 5%.
Thus, for the present we see a trend on reduction of arrears as in the absolute, and share relation. According to analysts, there is a risk that in 2020 the delay will show for the first time for 2 years positive dynamics, however its rates will lie within expected, and it will not lead to serious effects.
At the same time a number of regions of Russia are beaten out from statistics on the low level of payment discipline. So, for example, the arrears share (one of indicative indicators of financial health) in these regions by 1.5-3 times exceeds average value over the country.
The list of regions where worst of all the population pays on credit debts:
- Республика Ingushetia 13%
- Karachay-Cherkess Republic 9%
- Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 7%
- Republic of Buryatia of 6.5%
- Республика Adygea (Adygea) of 6%
- Chechen Republic of 6%
- Republic of Dagestan of 6%
- Kaliningrad region 6%
- Kabardino-Balkar Republic 6%
- Zabaykalsky Krai 5.5%
- Krasnodar Krai 5%
- Volgograd region 5%
- Stavropol Krai 5%
- Jewish Autonomous Region 5%
- Republic of Tyva of 5%
- Astrakhan region 5%
- Rostov region 5%
- Samara region 5%
- Republic of Kalmykia of 5%
- Altai Republic 5%
- Krasnoyarsk Krai 5%
- the Kemerovo region - Kuzbass 5%
#Ивановская area of 5%
- Omsk region 5%
- Amur region 5%
- Moscow 5%
- Irkutsk region 5%
- Novgorod region 5%
- Saratov region 5%
- Republic of Khakassia of 5%
It is interesting to note that these regions are included into the list of leaders where a share of the promised payments the lowest. Most likely both the general low financial literacy of the population, and an economic status of regions has the impact, as a result, it finds reflection and on financial wellbeing of citizens:
- Republic of Ingushetia
- Ryazan region
- Altai Republic
- Republic of North Ossetia
- Republic of Dagestan
- Lipetsk region
- Tambov region,
- Republic of Adygea
- Nenets Autonomous Okrug
At the same time the share of arrears is only in 15 regions at the minimum level and does not exceed 3%.
- Sevastopol 1.6%
- Nenets Autonomous Okrug 1.6%
- Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 2%
- Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area 2%
- Republic of Crimea 2%
- Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug 2%
- the Chuvash Republic - Chuvashia 2%
- Arkhangelsk region 3%
- Udmurt Republic 3%
- St. Petersburg 3%
- Tyumen region 3%
- Republic of Mari El of 3%
- Sakhalin region 3%
- Komi Republic 3%
- Republic of Mordovia of 3%
For February, 2020 18-20 thousand rubles of an unsettled debt are the share of one economically active inhabitant on average that is commensurable with one average monthly salary (66% of the average salary). In 10 years this indicator grew by 6 times – for the beginning of 2010 each economically active inhabitant had no more than 3 thousand rubles of an unsettled debt, or 15% of the average salary.
- Республика Tyva 31,471
- Moscow region 30,112
- Sakha (Yakutia) Republic 29,114
- Karachay-Cherkess Republic 29,078
- Tyumen region 28,806
- Republic of Buryatia 28,761
- Kaliningrad region 26,608
- Moscow 26 452
- Krasnoyarsk Krai 25,696
- Republic of Adygea (Adygea) 25,667
- Irkutsk region 25,000
- Zabaykalsky Krai 24,452
- Republic of Kalmykia 24,322
- Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug 24,054
- Amur region 23,404
- Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area 23,329
- Magadan region 22,841
- Novosibirsk region 22,699
- Jewish Autonomous Region 21,956
- Krasnodar Krai 21,849
- Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 21,631
- Sverdlovsk region 21,290
- the Kemerovo region - Kuzbass 20,807
- Kamchatka Krai 20,621
- Astrakhan region 20,517
- Republic of Khakassia 20,459
- Rostov region 20,427
- Perm Krai 20,402
- Samara region 20,319
- Murmansk region 19,684
- Leningrad Region 19,481
- Omsk region 19,182
- Komi Republic 19,163
- Sakhalin region 19,143
- Khabarovsk Krai 19,078
- St. Petersburg 18 883
- Republic of Bashkortostan 18,833
- Stavropol Krai 18,729
- Altai Republic 18,718
- Novgorod region 18,700
- Tula region 18,643
- Volgograd region 18,589
- Republic of Karelia 18,586
- Orenburg region 18,339
- Primorsky Krai 18,327
- Ryazan region 18,123
- Kaluga region 18,081
- Vologda region 17,967
- Saratov region 17,447
- Kurgan region 17,429
- Chelyabinsk region 17,388
- Tomsk region 17,059
- Altai Krai 16,835
- Ulyanovsk region 16,560
- Yaroslavl region 16,355
- Arkhangelsk region 16,086
- Pskov region 15,843
- Voronezh region 15,662
- Smolensk region 15,531
- Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan) 15,143
- Lipetsk region 15,080
- Tambov region 14,870
- Penza region 14,841
- Tver region 14,832
- Oryol region 14,723
- Ivanovo region 14,708
- Kursk region 14,650
- Belgorod region 14,554
- Kostroma region 14,391
- Bryansk region 14,164
- Nizhny Novgorod Region 14,157
- Vladimir region 13,783
- Udmurt Republic 13,757
- Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 13,333
- Kirov region 13,289
- Kabardino-Balkar Republic 12,529
- Nenets Autonomous Okrug 12,511
- Republic of Mari El 12,242
- the Chuvash Republic - Chuvashia 11,981
- Republic of Mordovia 10,669
- Republic of Ingushetia 7,750
- Chechen Republic 6,463
- Republic of Dagestan 5,909
- Republic of Crimea 2,449
- Sevastopol 1 866
|Unfortunately, Russian regions are too different on the economic development and often this gap is enormous. As we see, the most serious situation remains in regions of the North Caucasus, but also local problems are also in other federal districts. At the same time it is impossible to say that the situation desperate as we see from practice, 70% to debtors is possible to resolve an issue after they begin to work with arrears,|
reported in NAPKA
In 11 months the volume of debt on the retail credits grew by 16% to 17.39 trillion rubles
On January 30, 2020 it became known that the arrears share in the retail credit portfolios of banks in 11 months 2019 decreased by 30 billion rubles and made 4.3% of total portfolio of debt. Without a mortgage debt (43% are the share of a mortgage in the retail credit portfolios) the share of overdue loans occupies 6.7%, having reduced for the same period by 1.5 percent points. Analysts of the collection agency "Debt Consultant" on the basis of the analysis of own data and statistics of the regulator came to such conclusions.
As it was reported, in 11 months 2019 the volume of debt on the retail credits grew by 16% or for 2.38 trillion rubles to 17.39 trillion rubles. At the same time the volume of unsettled debts on balances of banks was reduced by 4% from 774 to 744 billion rubles. The vector of decrease in a share of overdue loans can proceed thanks to restrictive measures in retail lending, undertaken by the Bank of Russia in 2019.
|Reduction of problem debt in country scales for 30 billion rubles in the conditions of growth of volume of crediting speaks about two multidirectional trends: banks and the collection agencies learned to collect well and quickly, and secondly, banks sell arrears from balance for the purpose of deduction of a share of arrears at the allowed level.|
Denis Aksyonov, the CEO of the collection agency "Debt Consultant" told
In June, 2020 becomes effective change in the legislation on the 30-day moratorium for banks about attraction to the procedure of collecting the third parties that will affect dynamics of decrease in the arrears reflected in balance of banks.
|The regulator managed to reduce growth of volumes of consumer crediting from 23 — 25% to 16% by December, 2019 earlier, however all this still two-digit rates of a gain, at further deceleration of growth rates of crediting the share of overdue loans will grow, and questions of collecting will become more relevant for banks. From the social point of view concentration of the borrowers having arrears in some cities is very big that affects quality of life of the population in regions.|
Denis Aksyonov, the CEO of the collection agency "Debt Consultant" told
Without a mortgage debt the retail credit portfolio of banks grew by 13% to 9.96 trillion rubles. The volume of arrears decreased by 4% to 667.4 billion rubles. Leading regions on arrears volume traditionally are Moscow and the Moscow region (in total the share of these regions in total amount makes 20.2%), Krasnodar Krai (8%) and St. Petersburg (4%). Data on top-15 regions are provided in table No. 1.
Table No. 1. Regions with the maximum volume of problem debts in the retail credit portfolio without a mortgage.
The minimum reduction of a share of arrears on the retail credits without a mortgage is recorded in the Kaliningrad region (-0.15 percent points), the Republic of Crimea (-0.3 items) and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The greatest share of the problem credits is mentioned in the Republic of Ingushetia (15.6%), the Karachay-Cherkess Republic (11.6%) and Buryatia (11.5%). Data on top-15 regions are provided in table No. 2.
Table No. 2. Dynamics of change of a share of arrears of the retail credits without a mortgage in a regional section.
The indicator of a debt load more than a half of Russians exceeds 50%
According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2019 a half of the Russian borrowers directed to payments on the credits more than 50% of the monthly income. On November 22, 2019 reported about it in RBC.
According to the prepared MEDT of the draft of the work plan of Government Commission on Economic Development and Integration, in 2019 the indicator of a debt load (IDL) of a half of the Russian borrowers is 50 and more percent. So they spend more than a half of the monthly income for repayment of the credits. In 2018 this indicator was 42%.
Department is going for 10 items to reduce annually a share of loaded with debt citizens, by 2020 having lowered an indicator to 40%, and 2023-2024 — to 10%.
The rating of regions on the level of debt load of the population
The average level of debt load of Russians grew for 2019 from 44.9 to 47.1%. Most of all banks are had to by residents of Kalmykia (86.2%), least of all — Ingushetia (9.9%).
6.1% of borrowers have credits in the 4th and more banks
The share of the most risky clients of banks doubled in five years. In this group there are about 2.5 million Russians. In November, 2019 6.1% of borrowers had the credits in four and more banks, in five years the share of such clients doubled. In their November, 2014 there were 3.15%.
The first reduction of volume of issue of the consumer credits
Volumes of issue of the consumer credits in May, 2019 were nearly 250 billion rubles, having reduced in annual terms for the first time in 2019. Besides, the number of the credits for purchase of consumer goods decreased by 2.2%, up to 1.4 million credits from 1.45 million last May.
More than 70% of debtors of IFI – the working borrowers aged up to 40 years
As showed results of a research of SRO NAPKA, the maximum number of debtors with the term of delay 90+ are in age of 25-30 years – nearly a quarter of total number (24.3%), on the second place – borrowers at the age of 35-40 years (17.9%), close top three category 31-34 years (16.4%). The minimum quantity – aged from 51 year is also more senior (51-60 – 8%, 61+ - 4 of %). Apparently from statistics, more than 72% of debtors are the share of economically active population aged from 25 up to 40 years.
The prevalence of these age among debtors of IFI is explained by their greatest activity in the consumer plan and intensive development of an online segment of microfinancial market - in 2018 about 45% of loan agreements were signed with IFI in the online mode. This category is considered more progressive in use of technologies, including also financial. So, for example, penetration of the Internet among those to whom up to 40 years at the moment in Russia reaches 98% among more age category this indicator does not exceed 36%.
Due to use of mobile applications they take microloans in general considerably more often than the senior generation, but in smaller sizes. So, for example, in 25-40 years borrowers on average ask to issue them 6.7-8 thousand rubles, and citizens are more senior than 50 years request the amounts more than 12 thousand in size.
It is interesting to note that the payment discipline also has a certain interrelation with age – young people at a stage have collectings arrears with term 90+ it higher, than at citizens of mature age. Let's remind that in a segment of microloans the delay more than 90 days is upon hopeless and hard gives in to collecting because of feature of clients. From all 'hopeless' debtors of IFI which paid off a debt within 1 half-year 2019, the age category of 18-24 years worked more actively other - in 11.6% of cases collecting came to an end with return of means (Chart 2). Slightly less actively elderly people worked with the debt 60 years are more senior: they repaid a debt in 10.2% of cases. And most worse clients at the age of 31-50 years - despite stable earnings and already available bases of a material wealth fulfill debt obligations before IFI.
|According to experts if among more age category the payment discipline can be explained with life experience and "the Soviet mentality" - took-return, then among youth other trends prevail. So, for example, the vast majority of young debtors pay off the "small" debts to microfinance institutions after failure of other creditor to issue them the necessary amount, including the speech can go about a mortgage. As a rule, in 18 years clients address to IFI for the reason that the bank or refused, or there was a wish to make purchase here and now, however over time the young client of IFI becomes more solvent and thinks of large purchases: car, apartments. It is obvious that at a current economic environment when 70% of the population have no significant savings, it is not possible to make so many expensive purchases without use of borrowing facilities. At the same time the bank is not ready to credit the client with open arrears, partly because of desire to correct the credit history the youth makes contact with execution creditors more actively".|
Speaking about a gender ratio of debtors, it should be noted that the share of women the senior age categories among debtors increases. So, for example, if at the age of 18-30 years 45% of loans, then at the age of over 51 year – 60% are the share of women.
400 thousand borrower marginal persons to whom nobody gives the credits
More than 400 thousand Russians got to category of so-called "borrower marginal persons" — refuse to issue them the credits even microfinance institutions (IFIs). Men who are from 26 to 35 years old were them mainly. These borrowers get paid at the level of average over the country — 30-40 thousand rubles, and their monthly payment on the credit does not exceed five thousand rubles.
16% of the credits to business and natural persons in Russia for 10.2 trillion rubles are problem
In July, 2019 the S&P rating agency accused banking supervision of the Bank of Russia of the huge volume of the problem credits. About 16% of the credits issued by the Russian banks are problem: they either are already re-structured, or are serviced with the delay exceeding 90 days.
In terms of money it is about the amount of 10.2 trillion rubles (all loan portfolio of banks of the Central Bank estimates at 64 trillion) is practically every sixth ruble issued by credit institutions in the form of loans to the companies and natural persons.
The share of the problem credits in the banking sector of Russia "has permanent character and first of all reflects shortcomings of banking supervision", states S&P: these shortcomings led to emergence of new "bad debts", aggravating effects of economic crises of 2009 and 2015.
Every fourth borrower gives to banks 75% of income
Difficulties with repayment of debts to banks and IFI for June, 2019 are tested by about 60% of the Russian borrowers, follows from poll of the World Bank and Rospotrebnadzor. Every fourth gives 75% of income.
The retail loan portfolio without a mortgage was continuously reduced, beginning November, 2014 (except for short growth in July-August, 2016) therefore resuming of steady growth of crediting without mortgage in 2017 is a milestone event. Recovery of portfolio growth happens against the background of significant growth in issues of the new credits in 2017.
Record of issue of loans and credits to the population
The market of retail lending in 2017 showed impressive results on volumes of issue of loans and the credits to the population. Indicators of several previous years were exceeded and even record results of pre-crisis 2013 are blocked.
At the same time the risk of emergence of delay on the first year of issue is almost twice lower, than in 2013, on all types of loan it made 4.5% (data of BKI "Equifax"). It is quite low hazard rate and it is explained first of all by adjustment by banks of the risk procedures after crisis years and also accurate segmentation of good and bad clients. Besides, decrease in level of risks is reached due to improvement of mechanisms of collecting of arrears.
Each credit institution has domestic policy, the ranges and methodology of work with arrears, but three schemes of return of debts are traditionally selected. Creditors apply the initial stage (soft) to return of debts with delay to 90 days and as a rule is limited to calls and messages from the creditor, second (hard) is applied at emergence of debt of more impressive in 90-180 days and already has more persistent character. To the debtor the creditor's representative at the place of residence or to a work address for carrying out personal meeting can leave. The third, critical option (legal), is applied at delay in 180 days and above, in this case the credit institution takes legal action.
For the last 4 years in the market of retail lending increase in efficiency of collecting at all three stages is noted. At the stage soft it is possible to return 80% of the debt formed in 2017 that is 14 items higher, than in 2014. Indicators grow in hard and legal less intensively and made 10 items and 7 items respectively.
Having segmented the market on five groups (national banks, foreign banks, monoliners autobanks and POS-crediting, IFI) and having analyzed indicators of each of them, the following picture was received. The biggest growth of efficiency of collection is shown by national banks:
- soft from 63% to 85%;
- hard from 13% to 32%;
- legal from 1% to 22%.
The maximum indicators are recorded in group of foreign banks:
- soft 86%,
- hard 33%,
- legal 34%.
The highest rate at a stage of hard is characteristic of the banks issuing only car loans and makes 40.6%, the indicator grew since 2014 by 50%. Here the large role is played by specifics of a product which actually is mortgage and on which the level of efficiency of return is higher, than on unsecured loans.
The smallest indicators of growth at all stages are recorded at the companies of microfinancial market, dynamics from 2014 to 2017 remains one of the lowest:
- soft from 41% to 49%;
- hard from 13% to 14%;
- legal from 7% to 21%.
The debt of Russians to banks grew to 12 trillion rubles
For 2017 the total debt of citizens of the Russian Federation grew to 12.2 trillion rubles, Kommersant reports. Data on 82 million people who took the credit are provided in statistics. It is noted that for last year on credit issued over 5.7 trillion rubles. It should be noted that, according to the report of the Joint credit bureau, the quantity of the issued credits concedes to the amount of the given money: if the amount of the credits for 2017 grew by 12%, then the loan increased by 37%.
The segment of credit cards became the leader in growth of amounts: this year 660000 cards more in comparison with last year was issued. And the amount of the approved limits grew by 48%: the general limit for 2017 made 544.5 billion.
Bigger everything people took a cash loan: at quantity in over 24 million the amount of the given money was 2.97 trillion rubles. In 2017 over 21 million credits for the amount 2.23 trillion rubles were issued.
In general, growth of amount was observed also in other spheres of crediting. So, the mortgage segment grew quantitatively by 30%, and a car loan – for 25%. It is also worth noting that for the end of 2017 about 698 thousand Russians declared a bankrupt of.
Only 10% of SP have the credits
According to "The joint credit bureau" in 2017 in general the scope of individual entrepreneurs retail lending is at very low level. No more than 10% registered in Russia by SP have the allotted credits. Among other economic and active busy population of the country the credits have more than 60% of citizens.
At the same time credit loading of SP is very high. Borrower YIP is the share of everyone on average 2.7 allotted credits with the total amount of debt more than 2.2 million rubles. For comparison the average Russian borrower has 1.7 allotted credits and owes bank 10 times smaller – about 210 thousand rubles.
The most popular credit product among individual entrepreneurs are cash loans – nearly 63% borrower YIP have such credit. 15% have a secured loan, 9.2% have open credit cards, 8.9% - a mortgage loan, 4.3% - a car loan.
Most often entrepreneurs at the age of 40-49 years take the credits. Their share makes 36.3% of a total quantity borrower YIP, is more rare than all SP aged up to 25 years, their share does not exceed 0.2%.
High credit load of individual entrepreneurs affects also their payment discipline. According to experimental design bureau of 26.5% of borrowers of SP do not pay on the credits in time. 21% from them are in a default, i.e. more than three months did not make payments on the credits.
For comparison among all individuals borrowers with open accounts the share of borrowers in a default makes about 15%.
Individual entrepreneurs traditionally belong to the category not of the most "favourite" borrowers for banks. It is connected with the fact that in the existing economic realities revenues of SP not always stable and often difficult predicted for the creditor. Entrepreneurs often take the credit for the purpose of development of the business, and in case of failure, most likely, will not be able to fulfill the obligations, and it will be difficult to recover a debt from such borrower to the creditor.
Besides, the data array which is saved up by banks and BKI testifies to the high level of debt load borrower YIP and also to quite bad payment discipline in comparison with average individuals borrowers.
FICO and NBKI: Index of credit health
The FICO company and the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBCH) fix increase in the Index of credit health. This indicator for last year grew by 2 points and made 92 points (in July, 2016 – 90 points). After the period of rapid fall of the Index in 2015 and its stabilization in 2016, the tendency to its recovery was outlined in 2017. Now the indicator of the Index "returned" on level II of quarter 2015.
The FICO company analyzed data of NBKI on crediting of the population in all federal districts of Russia. Increase in the Index for last year was observed in all federal districts, except for Northwest, Siberian and the Ural Federal District in which its indicator was left without changes. As of July 1, 2017 the most substantial increase of this indicator was mentioned in Central Federal District – at once on 3 points. In Youzhny and the North Caucasian Federal District the value of the Index was 2 points higher, than the previous year. In Far East and the Volga Federal District growth was 1 point.
At the same time, in comparison with the I quarter 2017, the Index of credit health in the Russian Federation grew by 1 point, and the largest growth in federal districts was mentioned in Central and the Ural Federal District – on 2 points. In turn in Volga, Northwest and Southern Federal District increase in the Index was 1 point. In Far East, North Caucasian and Siberian Federal District the Index indicator in a quarter did not change.
As of July 1, 2017 in three districts the value of the index was above the all-Russian indicator. The leader is Central Federal District – 97 points. After it the Northwestern Federal District, the indicator of the Index of credit health in which was 95 points, was located. In the Volga Federal District the value of the Index was slightly lower – 93 points. Other FO are below the all-Russian level – Far East (90), Ural (90), Southern (89), North Caucasian (87) and Siberian (85).
The index is calculated specialists of FICO on the basis of data of NBKI. At calculation the share of "bad" debts among their total number (bad rate) is considered. At the same time as "bad" the loans delayed more than for 60 days within the last six months are considered. The first bad rate value is established as original value of the index equal 100. The index is scaled in such a way that its reduction by 20 points means doubling of bad rate, and increase at 20 points – reduction of bad rate twice.
Romir: Russians refuse the credits
For 2016 a share of Russians who did not take and did not pay the credits, increased from 60% to 65%. Survey results, carried out in June, 2017 by research holding "Romir" demonstrate to it. 1.5 thousand respondents from all federal districts participated in poll.
In parallel the number of those who pay several credits at once continues to be reduced. Now such 3% though still a year ago there were 6%, and before crisis, in 2012 — at all 17%. Almost so sharply the share of the Russians who are going to obtain the credit in the next year decreased: from 14% in 2016 up to 8% in 2017.
"Lending market still remains in a difficult situation, and the situation was even a little aggravated in comparison with two previous years. Russians try to expect more own means, refusing loans. The credit loyalty is shown generally young and well-founded", the study says.
The general downward trend of interest of Russians in the credits is not confirmed, however, by participants of mortgage market. On the contrary, according to AHML, only for the first half of the year 2017 in the country over 420 thousand mortgage loans on 765 billion rubles were issued. It is 15% more in comparison with a similar indicator of 2016 and corresponds to the level of record 2014. "The current status of mortgage market does not cause concern" — analysts of the agency summarize.
25.83 million (+14%) the credits of 3.25 trillion rub (+28%) are issued
In total for 2016 banks issued to 25.83 million new credits with a total amount more than 3.25 trillion rub. In the annual relation the quantity of the credits grew by 14%, and volumes of crediting increased by 28%. In 2015 it was issued to 22.58 million credits of 2.55 trillion rub.
The quantity of new cash loans in the annual relation grew by 18%, volumes of issues increased by 31%. In 2016 it was issued to 17.09 million credits of 1.75 trillion rub, the previous year banks issued to 14.43 million credits of 1.34 trillion rub. The average size of a new cash loan grew from 93 to 102 thousand rubles.
In a mortgage segment the total quantity of the new credits grew by 16%, volumes of crediting for 19%. In 2016 it was issued to 575.04 thousand credits of 945.89 billion rubles, in 2015 – 497.83 thousand credits of 797.20 billion rubles. "Average bill" on mortgage loans increased from 1.60 to 1.64 million rubles.
The quantity of new car loans grew by 10%, and volumes for 25%. In 2016 267.42 thousand car loans on 195.08 billion rubles against 244.15 thousand credits of 155.74 billion rubles were issued the previous year. The average size of the issued car loan grew from 638 to 729 thousand rubles.
In a segment of credit cards the most insignificant increase in number of new cards with the most significant increase in volumes of new issues is observed. The number of new cards grew only by 5% in the annual relation, at the same time volumes of the approved limits grew by 44%. In 2016 it was issued to more than 7.59 million cards with the general limit of 335.37 billion rubles, the previous year – 7.26 million cards on 223.31 billion rubles. The average limit of the card increased from 32 to 44 thousand rubles.
December, 2016 became the most credit and active month of year, however the traditional seasonal surge in activity was lower, than it was expected. If in December, 2015 the quantity of the new credits grew by 28% in comparison with November, then in 2016 growth for the same period was only 15%. Most likely it is connected with more uniform distribution of demand of the population for the credits during the whole year.
Level of a load debt load of Russians decreased to 33%
The joint Credit Bureau analyzed dynamics of level of a debt load of the population for 2016 on the basis of information about 66.5 million borrowers, information on whom is stored in Bureau and also data of Federal State Statistics Service on the average monthly salary of citizens.
Credit loading or indicator of PTI (payment-to-income) designates a ratio of the size of the monthly credits on all credits of the borrower to the level of its income. In bank classification the indicator of PTI at the level of 30-35% is considered normal.
At the end of 2016 the reference level of credit loading in general across Russia made 33% whereas in 2015 it made 37%. Average monthly payment on all credits for one borrower made 12.1 thousand rubles, a year ago it made 12.7 thousand rubles. The average nominal yield on average in Russia grew for 2016 by 2.7 thousand rubles.
In the range of PTI up to 35% according to the results of last year there were 14 regions, a year ago there were 8 such regions. In 15 regions of Russia the level of credit loading still exceeds 50%, however in 2015 there were 26 such regions.
- The lowest level of credit loading is mentioned on Chukotka (17%), the Sakhalin Region (22%), the Tyumen Region taking into account KhMAO and YaNAO (23%), Moscow (27%) and in Kamchatka Krai (28%).
- The highest level of credit loading remains in Karachay-Cherkessia (69%), Kalmykia (59%), Kabardino-Balkaria (59%), Ivanovskaya (58%) and the Oryol Region (55%).
- Level of credit loading at borrowers of Chukotka (from 32% was most considerably reduced to 17%), by the Republic of Altai (from 52% to 38%), Dagestan (from 59% to 46%), the Jewish Autonomous Oblast (from 41% to 29%) and Zabaykalsky Krai (from 50% to 39%). The most noticeable increase in level of credit loading is mentioned in the Tambov Region (from 37% to 54%), the Ulyanovsk Region (from 44% to 55%), the Lipetsk Region (from 43% to 51%), the Belgorod Region (from 39% to 46%) and Kabardino-Balkaria (from 55 to 59%).
- On the credits residents of the Magadan Region (23.6 thousand rubles) had the highest monthly payments in 2016, Moscow (19.1 thousand rubles), the Republic of Sakha (18.1 thousand rubles), the Moscow Region (17.6 thousand rubles) and Kamchatka Krai (17.2 thousand rubles).
- The lowest payments at borrowers of Ingushetia (7.7 thousand rubles), the Republic of Altai (9.0 thousand rubles), North Ossetia (9.2 thousand rubles), the Chechen republic (9.2 thousand rubles) and the Jewish Autonomous Oblast (9.3 thousand rubles).
- The biggest decrease in average payment on the credits is recorded on Chukotka where the payment decreased by 10.9 thousand rubles at once (from 25.6 to 14.7 thousand rubles), in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast – on 3.3 thousand rubles (from 12.6 to 9.3 thousand rubles), the Magadan Region – on 3.2 thousand rubles (from 26.8 to 23.6 thousand rubles), Zabaykalsky Krai – on 2.8 thousand rubles (from 15.5 to 12.7 thousand rubles) and the Republic of Tyva – on 2.7 thousand rubles (s15.2 to 12.5 thousand rubles).
- Most strongly the average payment in the Tambov Region – grew by 4.3 thousand rubles (from 8.0 to 12.3 thousand rubles), the Ulyanovsk Region – by 3.3 thousand rubles (from 10.0 to 13.3 thousand rubles), the Lipetsk Region – by 2.8 thousand rubles (from 10.6 to 13.4 thousand rubles), the Belgorod Region – by 2.4 thousand rubles (from 9.9 to 12.3 thousand rubles) and in the Murmansk Region – by 2.0 thousand rubles (s14.3 up to 16.3 thousand rubles).
Russians owed to banks 11 trillion rub
According to Fitch, all Russians owed to banks in 2015 about 11 trillion rub. And such debtors — about 40 million people, more than a half of economically active population of the country. Is able to service the debts — about 8 million.
Decrease in crediting in all directions
Most strongly car loans "sank". Decrease in quantity in comparison with 2014 was 57%, volumes decreased by 54%. At the end of 2015 230.6 thousand car loans for the amount more than 147 billion rubles, in 2014 – 531 thousand on 323 billion rubles were issued.
"Average bill" on car loans grew from 608 to 638 thousand rubles that is caused, first of all, by increase in prices for cars. The best dynamics was shown by issues of car loans in the II-III quarter that it is connected with start of the program of preferential car loans, stabilization of national currency rate and also consecutive decrease in a key interest rate of the Central Bank from 14% to 11%.
In a mortgage decrease in number of new issues was 36%, volumes decreased by 38%. Last year it was issued to 470 thousand credits for total amount about 749 billion rubles, in 2014 – 730 thousand credits of 1.2 trillion rub. "Average bill" on mortgage loans was reduced from 1.65 to 1.59 million rubles. This results from the fact that in 2015 Russians made the choice for benefit of cheaper segment of housing more often in new buildings which was provided with state support.
The quantity of the issued cash loans in 2015 decreased by 29%, volumes – for 48%. In total in 2015 about 1.3 trillion rub, in 2014 – 19.5 million credits of 2.5 trillion rub were issued to 13.9 million credits for the amount. Average loan amount cash decreased from 127 to 93 thousand rubles.
Also at the end of 2015 issues of credit cards decreased. Decrease in quantity in comparison with 2014 was 27%, volumes decreased by 47%. In total in 2015 it was issued to 7 million cards with the general limit more than 241 billion rubles, in 2014 – 9.8 million cards on 454 billion rubles. The average limit of the card was also reduced from 46 to 34 thousand rubles.
The number of the issued credits was reduced by 29%
The joint Credit Bureau summed up the results of credit activity of Russians in 2015. In comparison with 2014 the quantity of the issued credits decreased by 29%, and volumes of issues – for 46%. In total in 2015 banks issued to 21.7 million new credits with a total amount more than 2.4 trillion rub. In 2014 it was issued to 30.6 million credits with a total amount of 4.5 trillion rub.
The quantity of overdue loans for last year grew by 9%: from 11.5 to 12.6 million credits. The share of overdue loans on the end of the year made 16.8% of a total quantity of the active credits. The quantity of the "bad" credits with non-payments more than 90 days in a year grew by 23%: from 7.7 to 9.5 million pieces. The share of such credits made 12.5% of a total quantity of the active credits for the end of the year.
Despite the moderate growth of quantity of overdue loans, volume of arrears continues to grow in high gear. For 2015 growth was 48%: from 775 to 1,150 billion rubles. Now the share of arrears makes 12.7% of the total amount of loan debt of citizens. Volumes of "bad" debts with delay of payments more than 90 days for last year grew by 51% from 736 to 1,115 billion rubles.
The highest growth rates of volumes of arrears were shown in 2015 by traditionally stable segment of mortgage loans. It is connected, first of all, with recalculation of a currency mortgage by new exchange rates. In spite of the fact that currency loans make no more than 1% of a total quantity of mortgage loans, depreciation of national currency negatively affected all mortgage portfolio.
In total on the end of the year in portfolios of banks there were 2.6 million active mortgage loans for total amount slightly less than 3.3 trillion rub.
The quantity of overdue mortgage loans in a year was reduced by 3%: from 84 to 82 thousand credits. On the end of the year the share of the credits with delay of payment made 3.2% of the total mortgage portfolio of banks. However arrears volume on a mortgage grew by 58%: from 83 to 132 billion rubles. At the moment the share of arrears makes a little more than 4% of the total amount of a loan mortgage debt.
Cash loans were traditionally badly serviced. The total quantity of the active credits for the end of the year made 35 million pieces for the total amount more than 6.6 trillion rub.
The quantity of overdue loans in this segment grew since the beginning of year by 9%: from 6.6 to 7.2 million pieces. By the end of the year the share of overdue loans made 20.6%. Arrears volumes in this segment grew in a year by 48%: from 450 to 709 billion rubles. The share of arrears made 16.6% of all loan credit debt cash.
The portfolio of credit cards at the end of 2015 contained 35.6 million credits with a total amount of 928 billion rubles.
The number of expired maps for 2015 increased by 11%: from 4.6 to 5.1 million pieces. The share of overdue loans makes 14.4% of a total quantity of active credit cards now. Growth of volumes of arrears was 54% in a year: from 157 to 242 billion rubles. In December the share of arrears exceeded 26% of the total amount of loan debt on cards.
The Segment of car loans showed moderate growth rates of arrears. For the end of 2015 in the loan portfolios of banks there were more than 1.4 million car loans for the total amount a little more than 536 billion rubles.
The quantity of overdue loans since the beginning of year grew by 5%: from 180 to 189 thousand pieces. The share of overdue loans from the total number of car loans made 13.2%. Volumes of arrears grew by 27%: from 54 to 68 billion rubles. The arrears share makes 12.7% of the total amount of loan debt on car loans now.
|In 2015 banks practically did not increase the loan portfolios that affected reduction of volumes of loan debt and a small gain of quantity of the new credits. On the one hand, borrowers did not hurry to take the credits on high rates, and with another – banks seriously toughened requirements to potential borrowers. This tactics of banks positively affected growth rates of quantity of overdue loans: since the beginning of 2015 growth was only 12%. |
However, volumes of arrears continued to grow practically at the same high rates, as well as last year. It is necessary to celebrate that growth goes generally at the expense of old debts (with payment delay more than 90 days). The share of such debts exceeds 95% of the total amount of arrears. Unfortunately, to return this money impracticablly therefore banks are forced to clean the portfolios due to write-off of "bad" debts or sale of portfolios to collectors.
In 2015 most banks limited crediting of public market, having focused mainly at work with the current client portfolios: salary clients, owners of deposits, etc. In October-November the trend began to change, some credit institutions begin to credit gradually clients "from the street".
The current macroeconomic situation, decrease in a real income of the population, lack of foreign investments will hardly allow banks to increase significantly crediting next year. A factor which will be able to recover credit activity is further decrease in a key interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and as a result decrease in credit rates by commercial banks. The arrears share in a situation of insufficient inflow of the new credits most likely will continue to grow at moderate rates.
2014: The mortgage for the first time exceeded cash loans on volume
In December, 2014 banks issued mortgage loans for 227.6 billion rubles, having exceeded unsecured lending (225 billion rubles) on this indicator, follows from the analytical report of consulting company Frank RG. The previous year, in December, 2013, issue of a mortgage lagged behind consumer loans twice — 184 billion and 383 billion rubles respectively.
"Banks squeeze risky unsecured lending" — the CEO of Frank RG Yury Gribanov explains. The tendency to lag of retail lending from a mortgage was shown, according to him, even in the summer of 2014.
Unsecured lending is under pressure from two parties, the representative of the Home Credit and Finance Bank says. First, the Central Bank seriously regulates issue of such credits and it led "to significant cooling" the market. The regulator began to pursue such policy in 2013 — it consistently toughened regulations of reservation and the requirement to the capital of retail banks, trying to stop growth of debt load of the population.
Secondly, in the second half of 2014 the additional factor was added: the income of the population, after them — consumer demand began to decrease, and rates on the credits grew.
"Retail lending for the first time endures such distortion" — Gribanov notes. In crisis 2009 banks reduced issue of all credits, he remembers, but already a year later, on the contrary, directed in highly profitable subprime-crediting; on it such market participants as the Home Credit and Finance Bank, "East express", Trust rose. This time this market will hardly be recovered also quickly, Gribanov doubts. Especially difficult situation in regions, pays it attention: the income of the population is reduced quicker there, than in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and unemployment rate is higher. Meanwhile inhabitants of regions — just because at them the level of income, than at capital inhabitants is lower — gathered the subprime-credits more often. "Banks even more often complain that the non-return grows in regions, and it is not result of fraud how often was before crisis, and social defaults" — Gribanov tells.
"For retail banks — HKF, OTP, Russian Standard and so forth — came hard times, they should fight for efficiency: reduce personnel and network which at such falling of crediting is not necessary to them, to attract more reliable categories of clients" — he summarizes.
2012: The average volume of a debt load is 70 thousand rub
The average debt load on Russians from 2007 to 2012 grew from 20 to 70 thousand rubles while salaries for the same period increased only from 12 to 27 thousand rubles. It is said in a research of the bureau of credit histories Equifax devoted to behavior the Russian borrowers (December, 2012).
Data of Equifax demonstrate that debts of Russians grow one and a half times quicker than the average salaries. At the same time the level of debt load of citizens remains to much lower, than in Europe where the average credit debt is close to annual earnings.
In a research of Equifax it is also noted that the number of borrowers on whom more than one credit "hang" gradually grows in Russia. In the report it is said that the average borrower services 1.38 credits. For comparison, in 2008 this indicator was 1.23 credits.
The seasonality of the Russian credit market is noted: Russians sharply increase credit activity in December, and for January the sharp slowdown of interest in borrowed money is necessary.
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