Economy of Belarus

Main article about the country: Belarus

GDP

2022: 4.7% decline in GDP

By the end of 2022, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Belarus decreased by 4.7% compared to 2021. This figure was announced in January 2023 by the National Statistical Committee (Belstat).

According to the department's calculations, the volume of GDP at current prices amounted to 191.4 billion Belarusian rubles, or 95.3% in comparable prices to the level of 2021. The GDP deflator index amounted to 113.6% compared to 2021.

According to TASS, according to the forecast of the socio-economic development of Belarus for 2022, the country's GDP was supposed to grow by 2.9% to the level of 2021. In December 2022, experts from the Eurasian Development Bank predicted a 4.6% decline in Belarus's GDP by the end of 2022.

The fall of the Belarusian economy in 2022 was largely due to the subsidence of industrial production, trade, transport against the background of Western sanctions. The Ministry of Economy of the republic says that macroeconomic conditions have formed in the country so that in 2023 the GDP growth will be 3.8%. Experts believe that the situation in Belarus will largely depend on the Russian economy.

The volume of industrial production at current prices reached 169.6 billion rubles, which is 5.4% less in comparable prices than a year earlier.

An increase of 2.5% was recorded only in the mining sector. The manufacturing industry sank by 6.2%, the direction "Supply of electricity, gas, steam, hot water and conditioned air" - by 2.3%, "Water supply; collection, treatment and disposal of waste, activities to eliminate pollution "- by 2.6%.

Agricultural production in 2022 increased by 3.6% to 31.8 billion rubles. Housing construction decreased by 3.7% to 4.22 million square meters. m. At the same time, the construction of apartments with state support increased by 4.1% to 1.39 million square meters. m.

At the end of November 2022, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko approved the parameters for the forecast of the country's socio-economic development for 2023, which provide for the country's GDP growth by 3.8%.^[1]

2021

Agriculture's share of GDP - 6.8%

GDP growth by 2.3%, lag behind Kazakhstan in GDP growth after the collapse of the USSR

The National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat) estimated the country's GDP growth at 2.3% at the end of 2021. The agency published the relevant data in mid-January 2022.

The real indicator turned out to be slightly higher than predicted by the government - a 1.8% rise was expected there. The volume of GDP in current prices at the end of 2021 amounted to 173.2 billion Belarusian rubles. The GDP deflator index reached 113.1%, Belstat said.

They also cited data according to which the volume of industrial production in Belarus increased by 6.5% in 2021 and amounted to 154.4 billion Belarusian rubles.

Including by type of economic activity, the growth index was:

• mining - 102.8%;
• manufacturing - 105.9%;
• supply of electricity, gas, steam, hot water and conditioned air - 112.6%;
• water supply; collection, treatment and disposal of waste, activities to eliminate pollution "- 102.7%.

Agricultural production in 2021 in the country decreased by 4.2% to 25 billion Belarusian rubles in all categories of farms, and in agricultural organizations - by 3.2% to 21.08 billion rubles. The largest share in the total volume of agricultural production is occupied by Minsk (26.1%) and Brest (20.5%) regions, followed by Grodno (16.6%), Gomel (13.2%), Vitebsk (11.9%) and Mogilevskaya (11.6%) regions.

Talking about the situation in the Belarusian economy, Belstat also reported that investments in fixed assets in 2021 decreased by 5.6% compared to 2020 - to 30.13 billion Belarusian rubles.

In 2021, 4.387 million square meters were build. m of housing with a total area of ​ ​ 5.7% more than a year earlier. The construction of housing with state support increased by 2.2% to 1.335 million square meters. m.

Cargo transportation in 2021 decreased by 3.5% to 384.9 million tons, and passenger traffic - by 3.5% to 1.547 billion people.^[2]

2020: 0.9% decline

According to the National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat), the country's GDP at the end of 2020 amounted to 147 billion Belarusian rubles, having decreased by 0.9% compared to 2019. The GDP deflator index in 2020 compared to the previous year amounted to 110.1%. The main reason for the decline in GDP, as in many other countries, was the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Data from the World Bank and Belstat show that since 1990, the real GDP of Belarus has doubled by 2020, industrial production has tripled, and agricultural production by 37%. For comparison: in Russia, real GDP has grown by only 20% over 30 years.

Meanwhile, as the Belarusian economist and ex-presidential aide on economic issues Kirill Rudy told Vedomosti, the growth of the country's economy has slowed down over the past decade. Previously, development was due to active investments in production and stimulation of consumption. But over the years, investments began to give less returns and outstripped labor productivity.

Retail trade in Belarus at the end of 2020 amounted to 53.1 billion Belarusian rubles, or 101.8% in comparable prices to the level of 2019. On average, one Belarusian left 15.4 rubles a day in retail trade last year, which is exactly one ruble more than it was in 2019.

The volume of industrial production at current prices in 2020 reached 116.5 billion rubles, which is 0.7% less than in 2019. At the same time, production volumes in 2020 exceeded the level of 2019 in such areas as the production of wood and paper products; printing activity - by 14.7%, basic pharmaceutical products and preparations - by 10.1%, vehicles and equipment - by 5%, food, drinks and tobacco products - by 2.7%.^[3][4]

2019: 1.2% rise

In 2019, despite the government forecast for economic growth by 4%, Belarus' GDP grew by only 1.2%. The largest part of this growth was given by the ICT sector (information and communication technologies), it was he who provided 45% of all GDP growth. For comparison: Belarusian industry last year contributed 19% to GDP growth, agriculture - 17%, and construction - 14%. The contribution of wholesale trade and transport was completely negative.

2018: Up 3%

2016: $18K per person

Financial system

Currency

Main article: Digital Belarusian ruble

Gold and foreign exchange reserves

The total volume of ZVR of the Belarusian National Bank from January 2020 to April 2021 collapsed by 25%, to $6.9 billion, while only $2.8 billion remained directly in the form of liquid assets.

The amount available to Belarus is already below the critical threshold of the IMF, which recommends keeping the equivalent of three months of imports in reserves.

Key rate

From April 21, 2021, the Central Bank of Belarus raised the rate to 8.5% (from 7.75%).

External debt

2021: $42.1 billion

As of April 2021, the external debt of Belarus exceeds the reserves in foreign currency by 15 times and amounts to $42.1 billion.

2019

Debt to Russia - $8.1 billion

with

Debt to China - $5 billion

with the

Public debt: 39.8 billion Belarusian rubles

The total national debt of Belarus increased in January-July 2017 by 2.8 billion Belarusian rubles. (by 7.6%) to 39.8 billion Belarusian rubles.

External public debt $18 billion

The external public debt of Belarus increased in 2016 by 9.6% to $13.6 billion.

By August 31, 2017, the external public debt of Belarus increased since the beginning of the year by 14.3% (by $2 billion) and amounted to $15.6 billion, the Ministry of Finance of Belarus reported.

In January-July, Belarus attracted external government loans in the amount of $2 billion 572.5 million. This amount includes:

• $1.4 billion raised through the placement of Eurobonds,
• $600 million loan from the Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund (EFSR),
• $300 million of loans from the government and banks of Russia,
• $176.6 million bank loans, China
• a $92.6 million loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and
• $2.9 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Since the beginning of the year, $653 million has been paid to repay the external public debt, including $217.5 million to Chinese banks, $226.8 million to the Russian government, $176.6 million to the EFSP, $31.2 million to the IBRD, $700 thousand to US banks, $200 thousand to the EBRD.

According to the Ministry of Finance of Belarus, its external public debt as of July 1, 2020 amounted to $18 billion, having increased by 5.3% since the beginning of the year.

The debt of Belarus on loans provided by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSR) exceeds $2.5 billion.

Belarus is the main borrower of EFSR funds - since 2011, it has approved two loans for budget support totaling $5 billion.

Domestic public debt: 9.5 billion Belarusian rubles

In 2016, the domestic public debt of Belarus reached 10.2 billion Belarusian rubles. (+ 5%).

Since the beginning of 2017, the domestic public debt of Belarus decreased by August 1, 2017 by 7% (by 700 million Belarusian rubles) to 9.5 billion Belarusian rubles.

In January-July, the Ministry of Finance of Belarus placed internal foreign currency government bonds for legal entities and individuals in the amount of $406.7 million, repaid foreign currency and ruble government bonds for legal entities and individuals in the amount of $897.9 million and 120.5 million Belarusian rubles. respectively^[5].

State loans

2021: Financial assistance in the amount of $630 million from Russia

Russia has allocated financial assistance to Belarus in the amount of up to $640 million. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a press conference following talks in the Kremlin with his Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, which took place on September 9, 2021.

Alexander Grigorievich and I also spoke about this. The total volume of loans from September of this year to the end of 2022 will be somewhere around $630 million, $630-640 million, "Putin said during a conversation with journalists.

In June 2021, Belarus received from Russia the second tranche of a loan in the amount of $500 million. The total amount of the loan is $1 billion.

On September 9, 2021, the President of Russia and Belarus made a reservation to unite industrial policy, access to public procurement, as well as gas, electricity and petroleum products markets. The corresponding agreement will be signed by the governments of the two countries on December 1, 2023, Vladimir Putin announced. The price for Belarus for Russian natural gas in 2022 will remain at the level of 2021 - $128.5 per thousand cubic meters without indexing to inflation.

As one of the main outcomes of the negotiations, the transition to a single macroeconomic policy was announced. Countries will move to a unified industrial policy, common access to public procurement and government orders. It was possible to reach agreements on the integration of payment systems, deepening cooperation in information security, in the customs, tax, energy spheres and other areas. Oil, gas and electricity markets will also be standardized.

Belarus and Russia will increase joint counteraction to military threats. The presidents dwelt in detail on the situation in the zones of instability, primarily in Afghanistan, in terms of threats to the security of the Union State, including the topic of the allied military exercises "West-2021."^[6]

2020

EDB issued a loan to Belarus for $0.5 billion

In mid-October 2020, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) transferred a loan to Belarus in the amount of $500 million at a floating interest rate (defined as the average return on Russian Eurobonds in US dollars for a period of 7 years) for 10 years. The grace period will be up to 5 years, the press service of the bank reports.

A loan from the Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund (EFSR) is aimed at supporting the budget of Belarus in the context of the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The EDB added that Minsk has prepared a program to counter the impact of the pandemic on the economy, financial and social sector.

It includes measures to strengthen the debt stability of Belarus. In particular, we are talking about the consolidation of non-priority budget expenditures, optimization of tax incentives, the continuation of policies to ensure market mechanisms for the formation of exchange rates and interest rates. The EDB also noted that in the complex all these measures are aimed at strengthening the debt stability of Belarus.

On September 20, 2020, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that Belarus will direct the bulk of the loan - $330 million - to pay off the debt to the Russian Gazprom.

On September 14, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a decision to allocate a loan of $1.5 billion to Minsk. This was done during a meeting in Sochi with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Later, the Kremlin clarified that a significant part of these funds would go to refinance the debt of the Belarusian side to Moscow, and refused to consider this interference in the internal affairs of Belarus. It was also emphasized that Russia will continue to provide economic support.

In addition to the funds of the EFSR, Russia will issue a loan to Belarus for $1 billion. The republic will receive it in two tranches: the first $500 million - in 2020, the second $500 million - in 2021.^[7]

Russian loans account for about 48% of Belarus' external debt

Russia is the main source of external borrowing for the Belarusian government: according to the Ministry of Finance of Belarus, Russian loans account for about 48% of the republic's external state debt (as of the end of the first quarter of 2020), or $7.92 billion. The indicator includes intergovernmental loans and loans from the state corporation ВЭБ.РФ, all foreign currency loans. In second place is China, which has credited the Belarusian state for $3.3 billion.

2018

Since 2018 Russia , it has changed its approach to lending to the union republic, for the first time publicly refusing to refinance the Belarusian debt. After that Belarus , she placed bonds in Russian on the rubles Russian exchange market. President Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said in February 2020 that Minsk he pays about Russia $1 billion a year for using previously taken loans and does not Moscow ask for new money.

2008

Since 2008, the Russian government and VEB have issued Belarus at least eight loans, it calculated. RBC At the end of March 2020 Minsk , the government owed about $7.5 billion Russia and another $0.44 billion to VEB (on a loan for the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant)^[8]

The ratio of public debt to the country's GDP

2023: State debt - 40% of GDP

2017: State debt - 53% of GDP

Direct investment

Russian capital is the largest source of foreign direct investment in Belarus. According to the Russian Central Bank, in 2018-2019, investors from Russia annually invested $0.65 billion in the Belarusian economy, and the total volume of accumulated investments from Russia to Belarus by the beginning of 2020 amounted to $4.26 billion^[9]

However, these indicators underestimate the true volume of investments of Russian origin in Belarus. The Bank of Russia takes into account only investments directly in Belarus, and investments in transit through other countries (for example, Cyprus) are not counted. According to the National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat) and the local Ministry of Finance, in 2019 alone, the country received $2.87 billion of direct investment from Russia, or almost 40% of the total ($7.2 billion). This is more than four times the amount appearing in the statistics of the Bank of Russia.

The discrepancy is explained by the fact that the Ministry of Finance of Belarus took into account investments of Russian origin, even if they were carried out through other jurisdictions, such as Cyprus or the Netherlands. But even this indicator does not include investments in the banking sector, taking into account which Russian investments in Belarus will be even higher. According to the rating agency Expert RA, as of January 1, 25% of the assets of the banking sector of Belarus fell on banks with Russian capital (Belgazprombank, Alfa-Bank Belarus, Sber Bank (formerly BPS-Sberbank), VTB Bank Belarus, BelVEB).

Inflation

2022

Inflation in November - 15.2%

Inflation in July - 18.1%

2015: Inflation 12%

Inflation in Belarus amounted to 12% in 2015, said Alexei Yarkovets, head of the main department of price statistics of the National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat), in January 2016.

"In 2015, we fulfilled the forecast indicator for inflation growth, although in the middle of the year, according to the government and the National Bank, it was planned at the level of 15-16%. At the beginning of 2015, the inflation rate was slightly higher than 2014, but since April inflation has slowed down a little, "Yarkovets said

.

According to Belstat, food products in Belarus rose in price in 2015 by 11%, non-food - by 11.5%, services - by 15.7%.

Yarkovets believes that the denomination scheduled for July 1, 2016 should not affect prices.

"According to

our assessment, the denomination should not affect inflation, the denomination process should not affect the price level," the official emphasized^[10] down in ^[10]

The government's inflation forecast for 2015 was about 12%, the forecast of the National Bank of Belarus - 18% plus or minus 2%. The budget for 2016 included inflation at the level of 12%.

For comparison, inflation in Ukraine in 2015 amounted to 43.3%, in Russia - 12.9%.

Banks

Main article: Banks in Belarus

Largest companies

Electronic payment systems in Belarus

Main article: Electronic payment systems in Belarus

Salaries

Main article: Salaries in Belarus

Unemployment

2020: Unemployment rate - 1.4%

Consumption

Cars

2018: Number of cars per 1000 people

Milk

2018: Milk consumption in litres per year per person

Meat

2023: Pork is the most consumed type of meat

2019: Pork is the most consumed type of meat

Beer

2019: Beer consumption in litres per year per person

Energy carriers

2020: Energy consumption per capita

and

Oil pipelines

Main article: Druzhba oil pipeline

Gasoline price

Foreign trade

Export of food and agricultural raw materials from Belarus

Main article: Export of food and agricultural raw materials from Belarus

2024: Rising imports from China at the beginning of the year

2023

Belarus in 2 years increased exports to Russia by $8.5 billion to $25 billion

At the end of 2023, the volume of Belarusian exports to Russia reached $25 billion, which is a record figure. Growth compared to the previous year was recorded at 9.1%. At the same time, over the course of two years (2022-2023), Belarus increased exports to the Russian Federation by $8.5 billion. Such figures were announced on February 13, 2024 by the Embassy of Belarus in Russia.

Western sanctions triggered the growth of supplies to the Russian market. The issue of reorienting $10.5 billion in exports to friendly countries, in particular to the Russian Federation, was by and large a question of the survival of our economy. In two years, we have grown in export supplies to the Russian market by $8.5 billion, - said the Ambassador of Belarus to the Russian Federation Dmitry Krutoy.

Belarusian exports to Russia reach $25 billion

According to him, an important indicator of the success of integration processes between countries is the implementation of investment projects. This is, in particular, the supply of Belarusian components and components to Russian enterprises within the framework of the import substitution program. Krutoy notes that Rosatom, Rostec, the UAC and other representatives of Russian business "are ready to finance import-substituting projects for their own needs." He noted that for two years (by the end of 2023), representatives of Belarus visited almost all the largest Russian enterprises ready to cooperate with Belarus. With each of them there are medium-term supply programs for components and auto components.

In early February 2024, Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko announced that the volume of mutual trade between the republic and the Russian Federation in 2023 increased by 6% on an annualized basis and reached approximately $53 billion. Settlements in national currencies between Belarus and the Russian Federation at the end of 2023 reached a record level in history - 92% of the total.^[11]

Poland's exports to Belarus reach a new historical maximum

In December 2023, Poland's exports to Belarus reached a new historical maximum.

Take-off imports from China

2022

Trade with Russia for the first time reached $50 billion

In 2022, for the first time in history, trade between Belarus and Russia reached $50 billion.

Delivery of light industry goods to Russia for $1.1 billion in 9 months

Belarus delivered $1.1 billion to the Russian market for light industry goods in January-September 2022.

2021

The fourth largest importer to Russia

EU adopted economic sectoral sanctions against Belarus

In June 2021, the EU adopted economic sectoral sanctions against Belarus. The restrictions will affect the oil, potassium, financial and tobacco industries of the republic. By the decision of the EU Council, the following restrictions were introduced:

• Concerning the export and transfer of equipment, technologies or software intended for use in the interests of the Belarusian authorities in monitoring or intercepting the Internet and telephone communications on mobile or stationary devices;

• Regarding the export to Belarus of dual-use goods for military use;

• Regarding the export to Belarus of goods used for tobacco products.

• Regarding the import of petroleum products into the EU from Belarus;

• Regarding the import of potash fertilizers into the EU from Belarus;

• Regarding access to the EU financial markets to the Belarusian government, as well as to Belarusian state financial institutions and entities. It is forbidden to buy, sell, provide investment services and deal with government securities and money market instruments with a maturity of more than 90 days. This applies to Belarusian financial and credit institutions, where the state's share exceeds 50%. Belarusbank, Belinvestbank and Belagroprombank are included in the list.

The restrictions will also affect access to the capital markets of the European Union for the government of Belarus and state financial institutions. The European Investment Bank is prohibited from financing projects in the public sector, and the EU member states are obliged to limit the participation of multilateral development banks in Belarus, of which they are members.

US sanctions against 9 state-owned enterprises in Belarus

In April 2021 USA , the sanctions regime against nine state-owned enterprises was restored, the Belarus American Ministry of Finance State Department announced. The largest oil-processing concerns Belneftekhim and Naftan, fertilizer producer Grodno Nitrogen, as well as the Khrushchev-built plants Grodno Khimvolokno, Lakokraska and Polotsk fiberglass are returning to the "black list" of the Office for Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

The decision was made "because of the blatant disregard for human rights and Belarus's failure to fulfill its obligations under international law,"  the State Department said in a statement. The companies that fell under the sanctions, as the agency notes, "finance and support the Lukashenka regime," contributing to repressions against the Belarusian people and undermining the rule of law. "

The US sanctions strike is aimed at Belarusian exporters supplying the economy with foreign currency. Oil products produced from Russian raw materials provide 20% of export revenue coming to Minsk.

The loss of export earnings will be a painful blow for the candidate of the country Lukashenka, who has less than $3 billion in foreign exchange reserves at his disposal.

Lukashenko urged Putin "not to steam" and return to the planned economy

Russia and Belarus are able to live on full self-sufficiency: for this it is enough to return to the planned model of the economy, said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting with Union State Secretary Grigor Rapota.

According to Lukashenko, who will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in two days, neither Moscow nor Minsk should "steam" because of Western sanctions.

"Russia, like us, is trying to scare everyone with some sanctions. I'm from the Soviet era. I know what a state plan is as planned. I figured out so, my God, that we were fluttering and parading. We can calculate everything and fully provide for ourselves. With the exception of some details, "the BelTA state agency quotes Lukashenka in February 2021.

Self-sufficiency can be made complete within 3-5 years, after which Russia Belarus other former republics of the USSR - and, Kazakhstan Ukraine Lukashenka believes.

2020

Export Structure by Country and Product

Reducing the deficit in trade with Russia due to lower oil prices

In 2020, Russia's export advantage sharply decreased: exports to Belarus in the first half of the year amounted to $6.9 billion, and imports - $5.7 billion. This is due to the fact that in Russian exports to Belarus, 46% (according to 2019 data) falls on hydrocarbons - oil, oil products and natural gas. In 2020, oil and gas prices fell, in addition, Russia reduced oil exports under the OPEC + agreement. In January - June 2020, Russia supplied only $2.3 billion of hydrocarbons to Belarus - less than a quarter of last year's value.

With the exception of the oil and gas that Russia supplies to Minsk and the milk and meat that Belarus supplies to Russia, the commodity structure of mutual trade is very close: in 2019, Russia exported goods from the categories "Electric Machines," "Nuclear Reactors, Boilers and Equipment," "Ground Transport Means" and "Plastics and Products from Them" to Belarus for a total of $3.7 billion, and imported products from Belarus from the same categories for $4.2 billion.

2019: Declining trade with Russia

In the external trade between Belarus and the world, the share of Russia is about 48%, and in terms of imports, the republic depends on Russia by 56%. The second largest trading partner of Belarus with a large lag is the European Union - 18% of the total trade turnover of the republic.

In mutual trade with Belarus, Russia is a net exporter: in 2019, Russian goods worth $20.8 billion were delivered there, and products worth $13.1 billion were imported from Belarus.

Information Technology

• ICT (Belarusian market)
• IT market of Belarus
• Information technologies in Belarus
• Information security in Belarus
• Cellular communications (Belarusian market)
• Internet in Belarus
• Web development (Belarus market)
• Digital economy of Belarus

R&D

2020: R&D expenses - $907 million

Agriculture

2019: Low use of pesticides in agriculture

Potato production per capita

1. Belarus - 631.3 kg per 1 person

2. Ukraine - 487.4 kg

3. Netherlands - 384.8 kg

4. Denmark - 343.3 kg

5. Belgium - 299.2 kg

6. Latvia - 251.3 kg

7. Kyrgyzstan - 230 kg

8. Poland - 229.8 kg

9. Russia - 216.8 kg

10. Kazakhstan - 208.5 kg

Alcohol market

Minimum age to purchase alcoholic beverages

Automotive market

2021: 30,000 cars produced