2020: IDC: As the coronavirus will help the ICT industry
On February 16, 2020 analysts of IDC published a research in which reported that the outbreak of a coronavirus of COVID-19 in China not only undermines world economy, but also is capable to affect favorably development of the ICT industry and opens new business opportunities for developers of information and communication technologies.
In particular, virus epidemic urges on the governments to update the activity, moving towards smart and most modern technologies. It creates opportunities for development of digital platforms and the solutions Big Data.
Also the flash of a kronovirus pushes to creation of the smart cities and parks, promoting decentralization of management of city clusters and, on the contrary, centralization of the certain cities.
Other opportunities are connected with medical online services as the virus stimulates acceleration of digital transformation of health care systems.
Besides, according to specialists, new opportunities for the companies and services offering to employees remote work are created. Approaches and in education change: at mass diseases people will aim at remote education and online courses.
Developers of technologies for shops where the minimum of personnel is used have opportunities for business development or it in everything is absent and also Internet services for delivery of food and telecom operators at construction of a 5G networks and start of services on their basis.
At last, the outbreak of a coronavirus is capable to give a new round of development of robots for their use in management systems for deliveries. Demand for industrial and service robots should grow that, in turn, contributes to the development in China of national strategy under the name China + 1. Within it the authorities and the companies aim to constrain or reduce labor costs, including due to use of technological solutions.
The analyst of IDC Lianfeng Wu recommends to vendors to use fully digital technologies for development of opportunities and habits of remote customer interaction and partners, implementations of effective marketing of online products and services and also proper cost control and use of state support. Working in this direction, investing in the perspective business ideas and innovations, the companies will be able strongly to promote and to earn much after the termination of epidemic, the expert considers.
Despite prospects which for the ICT market are offered by the outbreak of a coronavirus it has a huge negative impact on world economy and China, in particular. So, according to forecasts of IDC, the global difficulties which arose because of COVID-19 will lead to the fact that expenses on information and communication technologies in the People's Republic of China in the first quarter will be cut down 2020 for 10%. For 30% sales of computers and smartphones, will drop by 15% — servers, network equipment and storage systems. Influence on all Celestial Empire will be huge, considering that 37.8% of local economy are the share of digital technologies, analysts consider.
| ||The flash of COVID-19 will have even more impact on the general economy, than flash of SARS [atypical pneumonia there are comments of TAdviser] in 2003 — the managing director of IDC China Kitty Fok says. — We expect that influence will be considerable in the first quarter, but will gradually decrease next quarters, and according to the results of all year influence on economic growth will be limited. Effects for the Chinese ICT market will also be more essential, than in 2003 as then the role of information and communication technologies was not such as now.|| |
ICT market volume in Russia reached $47 billion
In 2019 the amount of the Russian market of information and communication technologies reached $47.05 billion that became the greatest result among all countries of Central and Eastern Europe (TsVE), analysts of IDC counted.
By their estimates, a total ICT expenses in TsVE at the end of 2019 made $136.66 billion that for 4% exceeds an indicator of year prescription. Thus, slightly more than one third of investments were the share of Russia.
The second place after the Russian Federation was taken by Poland with an ICT costs in the amount of $20.44 billion at the end of 2019. The leading three was closed by the Czech Republic with result in $10.86 billion.
The share of expenditure for telecommunication services in total amount of the considered market in 2019 made 41%. 34% and 13% respectively were the share of sales of the equipment and IT services.
As for the industries, most of all representatives of production, financial and telecommunication sectors invest in ICT — their cumulative share in Central and Eastern Europe made 48%.
On growth rates telecommunication operators who, as expected, in 2020 will increase expenditure for ICT for 6.3% are in the lead. At the same time the amount of all regional market will rise by 3.1%.
The analysis in terms of organization size shows that in 2019 50% of expenses on ICT in the region fell to the share of large enterprises (more than 500 employees). The contribution of medium business estimates approximately at 23%, and the small organizations and small/home offices spent another 17% and about 10% of total amount.
According to experts, the ICT market in the countries of TsVE slows down growth that is connected with economic downturn and also the fact that state agencies, state companies and consumers began to spend money more rationally.
| ||In Central and Eastern Europe expenses and efficiency, as a rule, are on the first place in business priorities. The companies should think over carefully where it is possible to tighten belts and to use new technologies which will promote economy of means, but not to create load of their budget — the analyst of IDC Ivana Slaharova considers.|| |
IT services for the first time stepped for $1 trillion — Gartner
In 2019 the amount of the world market of the information and communication technologies (ICT) reached $3.74 trillion, having increased by 0.5% concerning the 2018th. Such data brought on January 15, 2020 in Gartner analytical company.
According to the experts, annual expenses on IT services for the first time in the history passed for $1 trillion and made $1.03 trillion. This segment showed growth by 3.6% that became almost best dynamics among all ICT categories. According to poll of Gartner, 46% of the organizations say that IT services and consolidation of suppliers are included into the three of the most effective optimization methods of costs.
Strongest — annual sales of the corporate software grew by 8.5% to $456 billion — in 2019. According to the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock, almost everything segments of the market of business software grow are stimulated with SaaS solutions.
| ||We even expect that expenses on types of the software which are not cloud will continue to grow, though lower rates. More and more new expenses are the share of SaaS, but the software with licenses will be bought all the same, and it will become wider to be used till 2023 — the expert considers.|| |
It is expected, corporate IT expenses on cloud solutions till 2022 will quicker grow costs for traditional (local) IT products. Analysts see also big perspectives in the field of software solutions for ensuring cyber security and personal data protection.
Segment of the global ICT industry communication services remain the largest, but demand for them falls. In 2019 costs in this area on a global scale were equal $1.36 trillion, having decreased by 1.1% in comparison with previous year.
Also sales of the IT equipment fall. In 2019 revenue decreased by 4.3% to $682 billion in many respects because of high dollar exchange rate here. This factor also negatively affected demand for the equipment for data centers in the countries which more suffer from adverse exchange rate fluctuation.
For example, sale of mobile phones in Japan, most likely, will be reduced in 2020 because of the rise in price of devices caused by the rising in price American currency. Sales of computers, printers, servers and external systems of data storage in Britain will drop by 3%, it is specified in a research.
Analysts believe that demand for the PC from the corporate sector which strengthened thanks to transition to Windows 10 OS will continue to grow some time. At the same time, in Gartner warned about a possibility of short-term negative effects because of deficit of Intel processors.
According to John-David Lavlok though world sales of the PC, tablets and mobile phones showed the strongest recession among all ICT categories, they should return to growth in 2020 due to emergence of new less expensive phone models for emerging markets.
| ||Though political uncertainty pushed world economy closer to recession, in its 2019 did not occur. And such scenario is not the most probable in 2020 and the next years — John-David Lavlok says. — Due to the reduction of global uncertainty of the company double investments into IT again, expecting revenue growth, but the structure of their expenses constantly changes.|| |
According to Gartner expectations, global expenses on ICT in 2020 will increase by 3.4% and will make nearly $3.87 trillion, and in the 2021st they will for the first time exceed $4 trillion thanks to increase by 3.7%.
2018: An ICT expenses of consumers in a year estimated at $1.61 trillion
In 2018 expenses of consumers on information and communication technologies on a global scale reached $1.61 trillion, data of IDC analytical company demonstrate. The research was published on October 11, 2019.
Experts divide consumer technologies into traditional and developing. Costs for the first make about 75%, and more than a half is the share of communication services (voice calls and the mobile Internet) here.
Experts refer to the developing technologies devices of the complemented ivirtualny reality, unmanned aerial vehicles, services in a request, the robotic systems, intelligent home devices and wearable electronics.
As for entertainments, most of all consumers spend for the services connected with broadcasting or loading of TV-programs, videos and movies and also listening of music and computer games.
Games in augmented reality (CAGR of 82.9%) and house automation (59.8%) will be the most dynamically growing options of use of technologies.
The largest market in terms of consumer spendings on technology in IDC call the USA — in 2018 about $391 billion were spent there. The second place is taken by China, however Celestial Empire will be in the lead on costs growth rates (+6.8% annually during the period from 2018 to 2023). The leading three is Closed by Western Europe.
The research manager in division of IDC Customer Insights & Analysis Stacey Soohoo says that technology achievements define and will define "convenience" to users.
| ||Beginning from consumer robots for cleaning and service of the house and finishing with smart illumination or the systems of house security / monitoring, consumers implement these solutions in the houses and everyday life, performing own digital transformation — she noted.|| |
According to her, the companies study new opportunities of interaction with consumers to find the correct combination of personalisation and functionality for providing harmonious functions.
According to forecasts of IDC, in 2019 consumers will spend $1.69 trillion for technologies worldwide, and in the 2023rd the indicator will raise to $2.06 trillion. Annual average rates of this market are expected at the level of $5.1.
The highest growth rates of sales are expected in segments of headsets of augmented and virtual reality, drones and robots (see the chart above).
Costs for the traditional and developing technologies will increase by 2.2% and 13.2% annually during the period from 2018 to 2023.
More than 80% of expenses of this direction is necessary on "smart" wearable gadgets and devices for "smart" houses. The same segment will be also the most fast-growing among the developing technologies: growth rates will reach 38% here.
| ||Services on demand provide access to networks, the markets, content and other resources in the form of services on the basis of a subscription and includes such services as Netflix, Hulu and Spotify. As Internet users start several services on the devices, it is important that suppliers of technologies understood how acceptance of these different technologies and services will influence their consumer experience in the future — Stacey Sokhoo considers.|| |
According to forecasts of IDC, world expenses of consumers on the services providing content on demand will increase approximately by 14.2% annually during the period from 2018 to 2023. Growth rates will be measured in a segment of wearable electronics by 11.8%. Costs for other categories of devices and services will grow for 3.4% annually.
10 main trends in the ICT industry in 2019 — TrendForce
In October, 2018 experts of TrendForce analytical company submitted forecasts in the field of information and communication technologies for 2019, having focused on 10 key subjects.
Improvement and acceleration of work of memory thanks to products of the next generation and advanced technologies of configuration of crystals
In the field of semiconductors transition to each new level becomes more difficult because of physical restraints. In 2019 producers will continue to invest in research and development of the advanced solutions. In addition to economy of the place requirements to the speed of reaction and a variety of structures will increase. In comparison with the existing products DRAM of the solution of the next generation will be compatible to different architecture. They will also help to improve performance, for example, having reduced energy consumption at the expense of a non-volatile memory.
Universal commercial use of a 5G
It is expected that in 2019 commercialization will accelerate 5G. First of all in the United States To South Korea, Japan and China. smartphones Other devices supporting this technology also should be available for sale. Higher speed and fast connection will become advantage of a 5G. Distribution of a 5G will cause demand and for other technologies, including video of high resolution (4K/8K), mobile AR/ VR- games and multimedia applications with effect of immersion, remote surgery Internet of Things, automated management of vehicles, etc.
Technical characteristics of smartphones will be updated, also a 5G smartphones will appear folding
In 2019 emergence of a large number of models with full-screen design, narrower framework and the corresponding front cameras of the smaller size is expected. Moreover, in the market of smartphones biometric technologies will gain ground. The advanced solutions will allow brands to release one-screen folding and a 5G smartphones. The offers combining a 5G and the folding screen, can also have high potential and cause splash in the market.
In smartphones of an average and premium class the fingerprint sensor under the display will appear
In 2018 sensors of fingerprints usually were installed in flagman smartphones, but, as expected, in 2019 they will appear in the Android models of an average and premium class. Also Android producers of phones can begin to build in ultrasonic sensors of fingerprints directly the display. By TrendForce estimates, in 2019 13% of all sensors will fall on a share of the ultrasonic and optical pickups located under the display. In 2018 this value was 3%.
Mini LED in consumer electronics
Having the bigger brightness and contrast, Mini LED will be able to compete with OLED and to get into displays of smartphones, tablets, desktop PCs, TVs and other consumer electronics. In 2019-2020 the accelerated Mini LED distribution therefore their market value can reach $1699 million by 2022 is predicted.
A large number of applications with voice management
In 2019 the number of the applications supporting voice interaction, including voice assistants, voice shopping, etc. will grow. The companies will continue to develop new voice applications for studying of market potential.
eSIM will give to the smartwatch additional benefit
With assistance of the large companies, such as Apple, Huawei and Qualcomm, in 2019 more and more applications will be used by eSIM for support of stream transfer of music, calls, sendings messages, etc.
Key year for Internet of Things and gain of the competition in the market
It is expected that thanks to technology achievements (LPWAN, etc.) and to global implementation IoT will be widely adopted in work of the industrial companies, and 2019 will become key for them to estimate results of use of IoT at the enterprises. Meanwhile, the competition will also amplify therefore the enterprises will consider a question of whether investments into IoT are rather effective in terms of costs to increase profitability in the long term.
New technologies will change the health care industry
According to the Law on methods of treatment of the 21st century the Food and Drug Administration of the USA (FDA) announced new rules of sequencing (NGS) and the principles of digital medicine. Development of surgical robots and the systems of surgical navigation (SNS) is expected. FDA will continue to be engaged in development of the genetic ClinVar and ClinGen databases and also PrecisionFDA which checks sequencing algorithms. In combination with new methods of treatment, NGS will help to increase the accuracy and quality of medicine in the future.
Intelligent power supply systems, management systems for the electric power and savings of energy will become key in the world market of photo-electric energy
In 2019 the attention of developers of the photo-electric systems will be drawn to permanent decrease in a rate for electrical supply to network, intelligent power supply systems, energy management systems and storages. They will need to achieve effective accumulation of energy to balance loads of power plants and to stabilize the general quality of the electric power.
The world market of telecom services will grow by 1.7% in 2017
At the end of 2017 the world market of telecommunication services and paid TV-services will grow by 1.7%, and its volume in monetary calculation will be $1.67 trillion. It became known from the fresh research of IDC analytical company published on December 4, 2017.
Experts expect that the uptrend in 2018 will proceed: global expenses on communication services and a pay TV will increase by 2% and will exceed $1.7 trillion Read more here.
Market of ICT-grows twice quicker than GDP
On October 18, 2017 the International Data Corporation (IDC) analytical company published results of a research of the world industry of the information and communication technologies (ICT). Expenses on them as it became clear, grow twice quicker than the global gross domestic product (GDP).
According to IDC, in 2016 expenses on IT solutions and telecommunication services in the world reached $4.3 trillion that is nearly 5% more, than the previous year. At the same time real GDP grew approximately by 2.2%. It is expected that in 2021 the volume of the ICT market will increase by 6.5%, and GDP — for 2.5-2.6%.
The main drivers of the industry of ICT experts call "accelerators of innovations": Internet of Things (Internet of Things, IoT), robots, complemented (AR) and virtual (VR) of reality, 3D-printers, cognitive calculations, the artificial intelligence (AI) and the next generation of technologies of the information security (IS). In 2017 the sales volume of these technologies will increase by 17% while world expenses on traditional IT solutions will increase by 3–4% a year during the period from 2017 to 2021, and costs for telecom services — only for 1%.
| ||Accelerators of innovations are the important engine of the third platform which is quickly replacing the second platform which local data centers, devices and the software treat — the analyst of IDC Stephen Minton says. — It not only creates new fast-growing categories, like play devices of VR content, drones, 3D-printers and IoT-solutions, but also involves strong shift in traditional segments, including growth of the IoT-cerverov markets and cognitive AI software.|| |
Follows from the message of IDC of October 18, 2017 that several years before the company recorded the sharp shift towards the third platform integrating cloud computing, mobile technologies, means of data analysis, social networks and the concept of Big Data. For a short time these technologies became dominating in terms of revenue. Accelerators of innovations are capable to cause a new wave of growth of the third platform therefore on it three quarters of an ICT expenses by 2021 is necessary, analysts predict.
According to Stephen Minton, the second platform is reduced, but developed economies still have huge base of outdated IT infrastructure for support of this platform and transition from it to the third. As for emerging markets, some of them can step over the second platform and be engaged in implementation of new technologies. For example, in the Pacific Rim which became the leading innovator in development of IoT and robotics the explosive growth of mobile technologies is already observed in recent years, the analyst reported.
The vice president for a research of the software market in the region of CEMA of IDC company Thomas Vavra says that in Central and Eastern Europe (TsVE) which Russia treats many categories of technologies of the second platform are in decline whereas the directions of the third platform promptly grow, except for some segments in the field of mobile devices. Thus, investments into the third platform will become the engine of growth of the IT industry in the region, the specialist is sure.
| ||Mobile technologies and IoT already had a great influence on IT expenses in TsVE, and in the future they will quickly grow further. Though AR/VR and cognitive artificial intelligence are small segments, in the years ahead they will quicker grow other technology categories — Vavra considers.|| |
- ↑ IDC says China's ICT Market Faces Both Opportunities and Challenges amid the COVID-19 Outbreak
- ↑ ICT Spending Growth in Central and Eastern Europe in 2020 Expected to Fall Short of Previous Year, According to IDC -
- ↑ Gartner Says Global IT Spending to Reach of $3.9 Trillion in 2020
- ↑ New IDC Spending Guide Sees Consumer Spending on Technology Reaching of $1.69 Trillion in 2019
- ↑ TrendForce Announces Top 10 Trends in Information and Communication Technology Industry for 2019
- ↑ Worldwide Spending on Telecommunications Services and Pay TV Services Set to Grow by of 2% in 2018, According to IDC
- ↑ New Technologies Will Drive ICT Spending Back to Double the Rate of GDP Growth, According to IDC