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2020/05/21 15:02:34

IT market of Russia

The market of the information technologies (IT) of Russia forms due to activity of the companies of the following segments: computer and network equipment, software and IT services.

Content

Market size

IDC published the following indicators of volume of IT market of Russia which by a technique of the company includes expenses of the population and the corporate sector:

  • 2008 - $31 billion
  • 2009 - $21 billion
  • 2010 - $28 billion
  • 2011 - $32.1 billion
  • 2012 - $34 billion
  • 2013 - $34.49 billion
  • 2014 - $29.3 billion (-16%)
  • 2015 - $17.4 billion (-38%)
  • 2016 - $17 billion
  • 2017 - $21.8 billion
  • 2018 - $22.6 billion (forecast of spring of 2018)
  • 2019 - $24.18 billion (+7%)

ICT market of Russia

Main article: ICT (market of Russia)

IT market is a part of larger industry of infocommunication technologies (ICT, ICT) which part communication service providers also are.

The systemically important IT companies and telecom operators in Russia

Main article: The systemically important IT companies and telecom operators in Russia

The systemically important organizations are large corporations and holdings which contribute significantly to development of national economy. Inclusion in the list of backbone opens to the enterprise access to preferential crediting and the state guarantees according to investment projects, refinancing of debts, etc.

Segments of the market

Main article: Segments of IT market of Russia

Directory of materials of TAdviser about separate segments of IT market of Russia.

Market development

2020: IDC expects decline of the market by 30%

The amount of the Russian IT market at the end of 2020 can drop more than by 30%, the vice president of Research Firm IDC in Russia and the CIS Robert Farish considers. According to him, the forecast is based on waiting of fall of GDP of Russia for 3-6% in 2020 on condition of stable ruble exchange rate.

Farish says that the situation in the middle of April, 2020 could be compared to the 2015th when recession was 37.3%. However statistics of decrease in cargo transportation speaks about more serious falling of the market.

Analysts prophesy to the Russian IT market strong recession

Most the market participants polled by Kommersant are solidary with estimates of IDC. Most likely, the Russian IT market will sink for 15–40% in dollar expression, the Deputy CEO of Angara group Dmitry Pudov considers. After crisis of 2015 the market practically saved volume in rubles, though was cut by half in dollars, was rebuilt and returned to growth, but now the situation cardinally differs, he argues, "the market not just should accept a new coordinate system, he just should learn in what conditions it is necessary to work in the future". It means that you should not wait for fast return to growth trajectory, mister Pudov summarizes.

The head of directorate of computer systems, service and outsourcing of Jet Infosystems company Anton Pavlenko compared a situation in the market to dominoes: some industries suffer and pull for themselves others. Especially strongly it affects the IT industry which works on service model, providing services for the companies of different sectors, he added.

IDC also expect that in 2021 IT market waits for purposeful, though difficult recovery. At the same time the prices of the mobile Internet will grow, and many employees will work from the house, Robert Farish considers.[1]

2019

The largest IT companies of Russia. TAdviser100 ranking

Growth of the market by 7.01% to $24.18 billion

The amount of the Russian market of information technologies in 2019 was $24.18 billion that is 7.01% more, than the previous year. Data of analysts of IDC demonstrate to it.

According to them, IT expenses in Russia in 2020 will be reduced to $17.81 billion, and in the 2021st the market will add 17.9% and will reach $20.95 billion. Thus, forecasts of IDC show that recovery of the Russian IT market up to the "dokoronavirusny" volumes happens not earlier than 2022.

The Russian IT market in 2019 added 7% in currency
«
We predict recovery process at least till 2021" — the marketing manager of IDC Russia Yana Frolova reported ComNews.
»

The edition also provides the following data of the CEO of information and analytical center of Rostec of Central Research Institute Elektronika Alyona Fomina: in 2019 the main growth of added value was concentrated on IT market in software and services (22%).[2]

The consultant for the analysis of IT market in Central and Eastern Europe of Race Bogdan of Kotovelea reported that the amount of the Russian market of IT services in 2019 was 413.7 billion rubles.

The Pierre Audoin Consultants analytical company (RAS) entering into the French Teknowlogy Group considers that that the size of the market of software in Russia in 2020 at optimistic succession of events will be 240.3 billion rubles, and at pessimistic - only 215.3 billion rubles. The corrected forecast of RAS for the market of IT services in the Russian Federation the current year makes 403.5 billion rubles and 361.4 billion rubles respectively.

In the publication it is noted that totally software and IT services in Russia at the end of 2020 in ruble calculation at best it will be reduced by 0.8%, and in the worst — will sink for 11% in comparison with results of the 2019th. According to the "dokoronavirusny" forecast of RAS, this market had to grow by 8%. In dollars the Russian market of software and IT services will decrease from $10.04 billion in 2019 to 8.89 billion $/7.97 billion $ at the optimistic/pessimistic scenario (i.e. it will be reduced by 11.4%/20.6%).

2018

The volume of IT market of Russia for the first time since 2012 increased in rubles by 18.7%

On August 2, 2019 it became known that the volume of IT market of Russia in rubles in 2018 increased by 18.7% and if to consider inflation, then for 13.8%. According to the RUSSOFT dual currency index, at the end of 2018 the Russian IT market increased by 10%. This gain appeared more, than in 2017 (+9.5%) and exceeded the value (+7.5%) predicted a year ago. The corresponding calculations were made by RUSSOFT Association within own annual research.

As it was reported, at application of a deflator in calculations, the explicit growth of IT market of Russia measured in rubles is recorded for the first time since 2012. In 2013-2015 reduction of IT market was observed, and in 2016-2017 its volume remained stable.

It is important to explain that the RUSSOFT Association does not conduct own research of IT market but only it analyzes data about it from numerous sources. Sources for this analysis are the ratings of the IT companies CNews100 and TAdviser100; results of researches IDC Gartner, ITResearch J’son & Partners Consulting iKS-Consulting; data the large domestic software companies giving estimates of separate segments of the market SOFTWARE; and also official results of work of the Russian and foreign IT companies taking the leading positions in the market of Russia.

Within the annual research, since 2014 "RUSSOFT" represents three views of scope changes of the Russian IT market:

  • Look of the global companies and foreign investors who are guided by dollar indicators (data of IDC);
  • Look of the domestic IT companies which the expenses and income measure in rubles (recalculation of dollar indicators of IDC in ruble);
  • Look of the Russian buyers of IT whom the received functionality (RUSSOFT dual currency index) interests.

Scope change of the Russian IT market in 2013-2019

It is supposed that at the end of 2019 the official rate of inflation will be 5%, and annual average dollar exchange rate — 66 rub.

Most of experts and analysts agree in opinion that in 2019 growth of IT market of Russia will remain and will be not really high (moderate). IDC expects increase in IT market by 4.8% in dollar expression. Messages about sales in I and II quarters allow to assume that growth will be slightly higher. The small gain of all IT market, according to the forecast of IDC, is caused by deceleration of growth in sales of the equipment (+3% instead of +15% at the end of 2018). At the same time, IT services will grow by 8.2%, and sales of software — almost for 12%.

Own annual research RUSSOFT allows to do estimates by the amount of the Russian market of software on the basis of data on sales of the domestic software companies in domestic market. Taking into account that not less than $2 billion sales in the Russian market (several large foreign companies announced sales volume in Russia in recent years), according to Association are the share of foreign software suppliers, the Russian market of software in 2018 increased by 10-11%, having reached about $8-9.3 billion (in rubles, taking into account inflation, the gain made about 5.5%). It is significantly more, than according to IDC ($3.07 billion at increase in a year for 2.2%).

The main characteristics of the Russian market of software in 2015-2018

Unlike IDC, RUSSOFT refers to the market of software also custom development (the Russian developers provided the corresponding services for $2 billion) and service of SaaS. If to select only "sale, implementation and support of own software products", then the Russian companies earned from it in Russia $2.7 billion that also hardly completely corresponds to the data obtained by a technique of IDC. Nevertheless, the market of software without custom development and SaaS nevertheless should be more than $4 billion (it is possible that it exceeds even $5 billion) if to add sale of the foreign software companies in Russia (not less than $2 billion) to revenues of the Russian developers.

At the same time, opposition of data of "RUSSOFT" and IDC will be incorrect. The matter is that mismatch, most likely, is caused significantly by different approaches and techniques which in turn are defined by tasks. For IDC these tasks global (the company studies a situation in all world IT market), it is focused on requests of the global IT companies. At the same time, at the Russian companies and at the Russian government of the purpose can be absolutely others.

The largest IT companies of Russia. TAdviser100 ranking

2017

Share of 0.9% in GDP of Russia. Export of IT services for the first time exceeded import

The IT industry — the most dynamically developing segment of the sector of ICT and economy in general. At the same time its share in GDP of Russia at the end of 2017 is small — 0.9%. The industry creates 1.1% of VDS of a business sector (in Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Great Britain — 3-3.4%).

Growth of its export potential testifies to positive trends in development of the industry. At the end of 2017, for the first time for the last 9 years in foreign trade of computer services export though it is insignificant (for 0.5%), but exceeded import: export volume — 3417 million US dollars, import — 3398 million US dollars. In comparison with 2016 these indicators grew by 28 and 11% respectively.

The highest growth rates of sales of products of own production show the organizations performing activities for data processing, provision of services for placement of information (114% by 2016 in real terms), development of the computer software (113%). Results of advisory activity in the field of computer technologies grew by 7%, activities for management of a computer hardware — did not exceed the level of 2016 (97%).

In an IT industry self-produced product structure about 45% occupy services in development and software testing (software), a quarter — services in data processing, placement of information.

In domestic market software dominates import. In 2017 its share in costs of the organizations of a business sector for acquisition of software products reached more than 70%[3].

TAdviser: the volume of the Russian market grew by 13%

TAdviser estimated the volume and dynamics of IT budgets of the largest Russian companies and departments and also analyzed changes in demand for information technologies among domestic customers. The volume of the Russian IT market in 2016, according to TAdviser, was more than 900 billion rubles, and in 2017 increased, by estimation, by 13%. In more detail - in the separate article.

IDC: Sharp growth in currency due to strengthening of ruble

According to IDC analytical company, in the 2017th the Russian IT market grew in comparison with previous year by 17% and reached $21.8 billion. At the same time in all main segments there was a rise exceeding 10%. According to the forecast made in an assumption of preserving of current exchange rate in the 2018th growth will continue, but speed will slow down a little. As a result IT market will increase by 4% to $22.6 billion.

IDC in the report of 2017 noted signs of recovery of demand after long recession and reduction of sales volumes. According to the vice president of the company in Russia and the CIS Robert Farish, in general the last year's forecast was very exact:

«
"That the market grew more, than we predicted, is explained by the fact that the section of corporate infrastructure included cloud services".
»

According to him, these results could be expected as in the 2017th GDP of the country grew by 1.5%:

«
"IT market reacts to GDP growth, and grows quicker. So, segments of software and IT services doubled in comparison with GDP".
»

However Robert Farish noted that the result in dollars was better, than in rubles. For example, the equipment segment (without mobile phones) in rubles was reduced by 1%, and in dollars grew by 13.5%. For a segment of IT services these indicators were 4.2 and 20%, and for the market of software — 3.9 and 19% respectively.

It shows that strengthening of ruble had a huge impact on raising of IT market in 2017.

«
"We saw such indicators 10-11 years ago when IT market quickly grew. But at present it is hard to say how steady will be this growth as a lot of things depend on a situation in foreign exchange market. Therefore IDC advises market participants to show discretion as such favorable situation with dollar exchange rate will hardly repeat in the nearest future" — Robert Farish told.
»

For an illustration of influence of cost of dollar on IT market volume it showed that if to estimate dynamics of IT expenses in Russia in 2016-2017 at a current rate of dollar, then Russia is in the fifth place from 89 countries. But if to look at this dynamics at permanent dollar exchange rate, i.e. without change in 2016-2017, then Russia appears already on the 62nd place.

Telling about how in the 2017th events in separate segments of IT market developed, Robert Farish noted that sales of the PC grew by 17% (hereinafter — in dollars), and it in general corresponded to a situation with dynamics of currency rate.

«
"Besides, the PC market was influenced that the companies began to update client devices and also to pass to Windows 10, especially in SMB sector. Besides some vendors tried to find more profitable niches, passing to deliveries of more expensive products that led to increase in prices and, respectively, to market size" — he added.
»

The Segment of tablets falls several years in a row and in the 2017th was reduced by 2%. But, according to IDC, there was already a situation when updating of devices begins to cause sales growth though a replacement cycle for tablets quite long. Nevertheless analysts do not expect in the 2018th special revival in this a segment, believing that recession will continue.

The Segment of mobile phones grew by 24%. As Robert Farish noted, these devices already became the main consumer platform, in other words, first of all people buy mobile phones. However IDC notes that here growth began to slow down and this trend will proceed in 2018. Partly such deceleration is connected with reduction of sales of normal phones, not smartphones which are now delivered very little. In general the market of mobile devices is already saturated, the number of vendors is reduced here as some of them leave.

In print area and peripheral devices in 2017 there was a significant growth — for 19%. According to Robert Farish, the suppliers having strong positions in the field of the copy equipment as they received return from the investments made earlier most of all won. Consumer segment began to rise only in the second half of 2017 though demand here still weaker, than in a corporate segment.

«
"Considering a situation to the 2019th, we believe that in the market of printing and the periphery growth at the level which corresponds to state of the economy in the country will remain. We do not expect two-place growth, most likely this indicator will not exceed 10%" — Robert Farish told.
»

Passing to a segment of servers and the corporate equipment, he emphasized that in the 2017th it very strongly grew — by 43%. The reason, on the one hand, in a sharp slowdown of demand in the 2016th, and with another — at the beginning of revival of investments into the corporate sector. In particular, new investments into solutions of the highest price level arrived from the energy companies, banks, manufacturing enterprises, i.e. traditional consumers of the server hardware. Along with it in the 2017th investments from the Internet companies considerably grew that urged on market growth of servers, especially in piece calculation.

Robert Farish noted one more trend which influenced the market of servers:

«
"Many Chief information officers and managers were faced the urgent need of updating of corporate infrastructure caused with lack of investments into purchase of the new equipment in previous few years. Now came it is time to make decisions. It is possible that such situation will cause some increase in demand for the corresponding cloud services, but in general with big confidence figure it is possible to expect that market growth of IT infrastructure will continue to the 2019th".
»

As for a cloud segment, in 2017 its volume grew by 15% and reached half a billion dollars. IDC expects further growth, at the same time the lion share is the share of SaaS ("software as service"), and the main investments arrive from the corporate sector, but not SMB.

According to Robert Farish, it is impossible to analyze IT market in Russia, disregarding sanctions and import substitution policy. So, at the macrolevel of the sanction influenced economy in general though differently were reflected in the separate directions of economy:

«
"We do not see that they strongly affected the ICT market, though affected an infrastructure segment. In particular, growth in the development area of software happens into the account of reduction of purchases of ready software".
»

Besides, sanctions complicate work of the global companies in Russia as attract many problems connected with requirements of regulators, and a part of products gets under prohibition. But influence of sanctions is distributed unevenly as most they are felt by the American companies, and in the smallest — Chinese.

Import substitution policy somewhat made favorable impact. Some segments on which the international companies dominated earlier opened. It allowed the local companies to raise and conduct developments in which earlier they could not be engaged, and served as an incentive for creation of software in Russia.

But the role of the state is not exhausted by it.

«
"Considering plans for development of digital economy, we expect in the future growth of a share of the state investments into ICT connected with this initiative. At the same time the number of megaprojects, such as "smart' cities, implementation of the advanced IT in health care and education will grow" — Robert Farish told.
»

2016

0.8% of world export of ICT services fall to the share of Russia

In 2016 0.8% of world export of ICT services fell to the share of Russia (computer, telecommunication, information). Leaders — Ireland and India — create respectively 14.4 and 11.2% of world export of ICT services, the Netherlands, the USA, Germany, China, Great Britain, France — 3.4-7.8%.

"Руссофт": IT market is rather in plus, than in minus

Analysts of NP Russoft recorded improvement in the Russian IT market at the end of 2016 though from a position of the western companies falling did not end yet. The association made the outputs published on August 14, 2017 on the basis of the analysis of open data from different sources, including results of ratings, the market researches (or its segments) conducted by the Russian and international analysts, the results of year announced by the largest IT companies and also estimates of experts. From own information "Russoft" have only data of annual poll on sales of the Russian software companies in domestic market which allowed to make own assessment of the situation in the Russian market of software.

Stabilization

In opinion of "Russoft", the situation in the market of information technologies of Russia in 2016 was stabilized if to look at it from abroad: reduction of market size in currency expression if took place, then was no more than 3-4% (approximately to $17 billion) after a collapse almost by 40% in 2015 and for 16% the previous year. If to take a position of the Russian IT companies and consumers, then at the end of 2016 it is possible to see explicit improvement of a situation in IT market.

At the same time in the first half of 2016 experts of IDC predicted decline of IT market by 13% for the end of the year. "Руссофт" predicted growth of IT market by 2-3% or the same falling, but in ruble expression. The similar indicator in dollars was predicted depending on change in the exchange rate of ruble in relation to dollar. Upon national currency depreciated approximately for 10%. However reduction of IT market appeared much less. Thus, the situation was better, than experts and "Russoft", and IDC predicted.

Growth in dollar expression: arguments

At the same time, there are bases to assume presence in 2016 of growth of IT market in dollar expression. Such assumption in "Russoft" is supported with data of ratings of TAdviser and CNews. Aggregate turnover of 100 largest companies in dollars in the rating of TAdviser100 was reduced by 1.5%, and in the rating of CNews increased by 4.7%. At the same time minus of TAdviser100 provided Rostec. At the same time, the small software companies which could not get to these ratings increased the domestic sales by 24% (according to the calculation of "Russoft" based on data of annual poll).

Other argument for benefit of the version about increase in dollar volume of IT market — assessment of OCS company, the multi-profile Russian distributor in the field of ICT according to which IT market grew in 2016 by 2-3% in dollar expression. However you should not oppose estimates of OCS and data of IDC as experts can have significantly a different idea of what belongs to IT market and that does not belong, emphasized in "Russoft".

One more argument for benefit of growth of IT market — indicators of sales volume of a number of the foreign companies. At SAP growth in dollar expression was about 1%. The same growth at Microsoft. The American company SAS added 27%, Apple — 55% (possibly, in many respects thanks to significant increase in demand for expensive smartphones). Only IBM (from those companies which summed up the results of year publicly) lost 12%.

At last, the majority of segments of the Russian IT market received an essential gain. Falling concerned only those segments which are reduced also within all world market. According to experts of "Russoft", such reduction demonstrates or saturation of these segments, or implementation of alternative technologies, but not existence of the crisis phenomena in the Russian market in any way.

Considering the arguments stated above "Russoft" inclines that more probable is the version about the small growth (not less than 3%) of the market in dollar expression. Data of IDC can also quite be fair, but this company, most likely, does not carry some growing segments to IT market. If to consider them, then the volume of this market can be not $17 billion, but not less than $20 billion.

Market size in ruble expression

In terms of rubles IT market increased by 5.1% (if to be based on the data of IDC) that almost corresponds to the official rate of inflation in 5.4%. Therefore, in ruble expression and at the comparable prices market size did not change. If to recognize the version about dollar growth by 3%, then ruble sales increased by 13% (taking into account inflation — for 7.5%), counted in "Russoft".

Ruble expression is important for the Russian IT companies which measure the achievements and failures in rubles. Growth of the market for the Russian companies is not less than 5-10% in ruble expression in the comparable prices (taking into account official inflation). This version is confirmed that total ruble revenue of 100 largest IT companies of Russia of rating of Cnews100 increased by 15% (taking into account inflation it will be about 10%).

Pluses for consumers

There are bases to assume, as consumers of IT in Russia were in a favorable situation — they received more useful functionality, than a year ago. If to be guided by data of IDC taking into account growth and falling of the prices (on the equipment they decreased, and on software — grew), then the zero gain will turn out. If to allow growth of IT market in dollars for 3%, then consumers received about 5% more. However it is necessary to consider not only the change in price, but also the received bigger functionality for the same money upon transition to cloud computing and the open source. This transition has big scales what, for example, tells rapid increase in demand for such cloud services as SaaS and IaaS about. Therefore, consumers also, as well as the Russian companies, were in a favorable situation, concluded in "Russoft".

Forecast of IDC: falling continues

IDC expect that in 2016 the Russian IT market will continue to be reduced by two-digit rates: "The current main scenario of market development provides annual reduction for 13%", declared in March, 2016 analysts. Earlier in IDC expected that in 2016 the market will be reduced less considerably.

«
The Russian economy continues to endure recession that as we see, affects in expense reduction IT from outside of both home users, and the organizations and the enterprises, – Robert Farish, the vice president of IDC in Russia and the CIS says
»

Expectations of players of the market

The head of Lenovo in Russia, the CIS and Eastern Europe Gleb Mishin expects that year-on-year the market will drop by 10-15% if there are no geopolitical or global financial shocks. Consumer market at the expense of exhaustion of savings of the population will be reduced generally, he noted in a conversation with TAdviser. In the corporate sector Mishin even expects revival of purchases, connecting it with pent-up demand of last year.

The popularity of multifunctional devices and tablets on Windows OS which with reduction in cost of construct and the platform become more attractive to consumers, than traditional notebooks will grow Besides, the representative of Lenovo considers.

Gleb Mishin, the head of Lenovo in Russia, the CIS and Eastern Europe, expects revival of purchases of IT in the corporate sector in 2016

The chairman of the board of IBSSergey Matsotsky is inclined to consider the forecast of IDC for 2016 realistic: "If not to consider rate fluctuation, and I definitely cannot predict them, the forecast looks realistic. So in rubles, I consider, the market will be reduced approximately by 10% "plus or minus".

Boris Bobrovnikov, the CEO of Croc company, believes that the forecast of IDC rather correct provided that dollar exchange rate will remain at the current level. At the same time in rubles market size, by estimates of the company, will remain at the level of 2014-2015 year, he expects.

«
It is clear, that year will be difficult and many industries will continue to cut down the expenses on IT. First of all - the financial sector and a telecom, retail and an oil and gas industry "will not so strongly sink". At the same time in all these industries there are points of growth, - Bobrovnikov noted in a conversation with TAdviser. - Financial and a telecom of the industry are closely connected with automation – respectively completely they cannot reduce the costs on IT. Now the companies of these industries are focused on consolidation of computing powers within consolidation processes, besides, in 2016 projects on transfer of personal data on the territory of the Russian Federation will proceed.
»

In the retail market which was reduced by 10% this year there are also consolidation processes, also large shopping facilities are completed, at the same time the companies try to optimize the expenses on IT, Boris Bobrovnikov continues. Most often, according to it, it occurs at the expense of cloud computing and outsourcing of DPC. In turn, the companies of an oil and gas sector the main objective put industrial automation: many projects are directed to implementation of the systems of collecting of dispatching data and maintenance of an automated system of technical electricity metering. All for decrease in capital costs of production.

To the Russian IT market, according to the CEO Croc, the public sector, industry, transport and, perhaps construction industry within large state infrastructure projects and preparation for the World Cup of 2018 will give positive dynamics.

The CEO Croc Boris Bobrovnikov believes that in 2016 many industries will continue to cut down the expenses on IT

I-Teco found it difficult to give the forecast for IT market in dollar expression because of high volatility of currency rates. In ruble calculation in 2016 falling of the market in the company do not expect: "More likely, we expect moderate growth practically in all industries, except, maybe, financial sector, it is possible to refer implementation of the large-scale state projects first of all connected with preparation for a FM of 2018 on soccer and also development of the innovative solutions and a course towards the import substitution which covered practically all industries to premises of what", TAdviser stated Vladimir Lviv, the director of strategic development of I-Teco.

The representative of I-Teco added that their company stakes on services and outsourcing, including - here demand steadily grows in infrastructure.

Olga Tyrnovskaya, the vice president for work with vendors of the Asteros group, in a conversation with TAdviser noted that though the company is included into new projects and she continues to invest in development of new examination, the first quarter 2016 shows a tendency to preserving of the pacing economic and political restrictive factors for IT market Among them she calls the low prices of oil, sectoral sanctions, high cost of attraction of financing and falling of the general consumer demand. Optimization of budgets on IT will continue, Tyrnovskaya believes.

«
In terms of the industries – hard times are waited by IT budgets of banks and insurance companies, an oil and gas sector, retail and a telecom. Many of the companies of these segments are waited by consolidation and reorganization of strategy of work with the market for improving competitiveness and customer retention, - Olga Tyrnovskaya says. - Import substitution, data security provision, decrease in operating expenses due to outsourcing and "clouds", implementation of large infrastructure projects in the field of the IT supported by the state will remain drivers of the market.
»

IT notes that when forecasting IDC applied scenario approach and decline of the market by 13% - it is the most probable, from the point of view of analysts, but not the only forecast digit. There is also an optimistic scenario with scanty growth, there is also a scenario of deeper falling that contacts different options of dynamics of an exchange rate of ruble and prices of oil.

«
IT as the Russian company, makes the plans and estimates in national currency and, of course, we estimate only a corporate segment of IT. For 2016 we expect insignificant – unit of percent – growth of IT market in Russia in ruble calculation, - the representative of the company Dmitry Vedev told TAdviser
»

The expectations in IT connect with stabilization in foreign exchange market, decrease in rates of reduction of GDP and noted extremely insignificant growth of IT budgets of customers for the purpose of compensation for expenses on a support and maintenance of information systems where the share of import hardverny and software components is still big.

Speaking about industry specifics, Vedev noted that in the conditions of an economic crisis there are no industries, "good" and "bad" in terms of IT consumption. There are enterprises which got into a difficult situation and hardly make ends meet, there are enterprises which selected tactics to wait hard times, without investing in development, and there are enterprises which, on the contrary, in crisis invest in technologies to gain advantage over competitors.

IT stakes on the last type of the enterprises which are practically in each industry, Vedev says. According to him, for the beginning of 2016 the company has "an interesting order portfolio" on such subjects as implementation of Business Process Management Suite, transition to digital content, applications of a class Internet of Things, corporate mobility and so forth.

Maykor is inclined to agree with analysts of IDC in their forecasts for the market in general. The company hopes at the same time that IT services will be reduced not so promptly, especially in rubles. The representative of Maykor Irina Semyonova notes that, at least, for their segment – IT outsourcing – 2015 was issued rather stable.

2015

Data of PMR: decline by 31.7% in euro to 9.7 billion euros

On August 3, 2016 the PMR analytical company published short results of a research of the Russian market of the information technologies (IT). Its volume in terms of euro was reduced by a third. In rubles recession was not so strong. Experts predict further falling of the market in 2016 and rise in the 2017th.

According to estimates of PMR, in 2015 sales of IT products and services in Russia made 652.1 billion rubles that is 8.8% less than an indicator of year prescription. In July, 2015 experts predicted the small growth of the market in the Russian currency — for 0.8%.

Forecast of analysts of PMR for the Russian IT market

Decrease in euro was also stronger, than it was expected earlier — for 31.7% against the predicted 22.7%. In 2015 the volume of the Russian IT industry was 9.7 billion euros.

Specialists say that assessment in euro in the best degree characterizes the market. The matter is that a considerable part of the equipment and the software comes to the Russian Federation from abroad, and the prices of foreign solutions directly depend on currency rates.

The sharp devaluation of ruble caused by sanctions of the West and falling of cost of oil in the second half of the 2014th and in 2015 led to rise in price of the hardware and software that in turn caused notable recession of the computer market and redistribution of shares among producers of IT solutions.

The main segments of the Russian IT market and also certain types of products showed ambiguous dynamics in 2015. For example, sales of the equipment were reduced as in euro, and rubles, and implementation of software and IT services recorded small growth partly as a result of price increase.

In 2015 the global IT companies began to rebuild the strategy in Russia, having focused on direct contacts with large retailers and end users. It is interesting that the corporate sector began to show more interest in B-brands and even producers of non-branded products, analysts note.

One more trend in PMR orientation of the Russian business and public sector to equipment procurements released by the Chinese vendors call. The last, including Huawei and Lenovo, were engaged in active investment into development of sales and support in the Russian market that can lead to strengthening of positions of Asian suppliers in Russia in 2016-2017, the study says.

According to the report of PMR, the Russian IT market is rather consolidated: on it no more than 100-120 companies work with the annual revenues exceeding 1 billion rubles. The largest domestic IT companies by the extent of turnover in 2015 analysts called Merlion, DNS, National Computer Corporation, Marvel Distribution and Lanit.

The greatest segment of the Russian IT market is the equipment to which share about 44% of revenue in 2015 fell. The previous year this share indicator byl above. Sales of solutions SaaS increased by 28%.

85% of corporate expenses on information technologies in 2015 were the share of big the companies. The remained share was occupied by small and medium business.

As for costs of the government for IT, they increased in 2015. State agencies continue to invest in IT systems despite the general reduction of budgets and its growing deficit.

The growing macroeconomic uncertainty and economic crisis in 2015 business and state agencies pushed to implementing solutions, allowing to optimize expenses, and at the same time to postponement of implementation of new projects, analysts report.

According to the staff of PMR, further economic development of Russia and a situation in the IT industry will depend on many factors, first of all on actions of the government. The role of the authorities in management of economic growth in Russia is much bigger in comparison with other countries.

Analysts expect that in 2016 the Russian IT market will continue falling, however rates of regress will be less relative the 2015th — for 1.2% in rubles and for 5.5% in European currency. In 2017 the market will return to growth: sales of IT products and services in our country will rise by 7.2% and 6.3% in rubles and euro respectively (see the diagram above).

The largest IT companies working in Russia

TAdviser100 ranking: The largest IT companies in Russia 2016

"Руссофт" about real falling of the Russian IT market in 2015

In the spring of 2016 experts of "Russoft" carried out the traditional data analysis, characterizing the Russian IT market and received from different sources. As a result they provided the vision of scope change of IT market of Russia in 2015. In general, confirming outputs of the leading foreign analytical agencies about considerable falling of size of the market of IT in dollar expression, analysts of "Russoft" came to a conclusion that the main drop in sales was the share of foreign vendors while rather domestic software development industry and all software market of Russia it is possible to speak even about some growth.

According to these IDC and Gartner, in 2015 there was a collapse of the Russian IT market to reduction of its volume approximately for 40% (39% according to IDC and 44% according to Gartner). A basic reason - approximately the same devaluation of ruble on value.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the IT market size in 2015 was 740 billion rubles that is 9% less, than the previous year if to consider in the comparable prices.

"Руссофт" developed the "dual currency" index for assessment of the Russian IT market. It is calculated as follows: the market is separated into import and domestic goods and solutions, and for each segment growth or decrease in the corresponding currency is defined, and then when calculating total amount of the market the weight of each segment is considered.

It is necessary to take into account that at it "dual currency approach" "Russoft" did not consider three significant factors. First, the prices in dollars and rubles, most likely, for buyers decreased by several percent. Secondly, the begun mass transition of corporate customers to the free software assumes acquisition approximately of the same functionality without payment of licenses (when costs of the buyer consist of payment for support of the purchased software). The similar effect gives transition to cloud computing, and it also has significant scales for the Russian IT market. Therefore, falling in 25% which was received by analysts of "Russoft" needs to be reduced still.

Three views of size variation of the Russian IT market at the end of 2015.

Assessment position Change Notes
From a position of the global companies ($)-39%the version of IDC
From a position of the domestic companies (rubles taking into account inflation)-9%the version of the Ministry of Economic Development
-14%are calculated by "Russoft" according to IDC taking into account official inflation of 12.9%
The dual currency Russoft index (from a position of consumers of IT)-25%falling value without a number of factors which influence it is still difficult to measure.
-10.15ekspertno taking into account influence of transition to Open Source, more active use of cloud computing and the reduced prices in dollars and rubles

Three views of size variation of the Russian software market at the end of 2015.

Assessment position Change Notes
From a position of the global companies ($)-43.10%the version of IDC
From a position of the domestic companies (rubles taking into account inflation)-19%are calculated according to IDC taking into account official inflation of 12.9%
The dual currency Russoft index (from a position of consumers of software)-7% (-3%)the software solutions only replicated (taking into account transition to Open Source and SaaS)
+2% (up to +10%)together with services in custom software development (taking into account transition to Open Source and SaaS)
Sales of the Russian software companies in domestic market+28% (+13%)nominal yields in rubles (taking into account official inflation)
«
It is possible to draw a conclusion that positive influence of IT on economy and society in 2015 decreased in comparison with 2014, but development of IT market with change of its structure continues, even at such reduction, - say in "Russoft".
»

Result of IDC: Reduction of the market for 38% in dollars to $17.4 billion

On March 31, 2016 IDC announced reduction of volume of IT market in Russia at the end of 2015.

"The Russian economy continues to endure recession that as we see, affects in expense reduction IT from outside of both home users, and the organizations and the enterprises", – Robert Farish, the vice president of IDC in Russia and the CIS says.

The volume of the Russian IT market in dollar expression was reduced for 2015 by 38% and was $17.4 billion, reported TAdviser in IDC.

B. Bobrovnikov's forecast: Sales reduction of the equipment for 20% in currency, software - for 30%

In November, 2014 the personal forecast of Bobrovnikov Boris Leonidovich for 2015 such is that sales of the equipment will decrease approximately by 20% in currency, software products - for 30% in currency, and IT services will save present volume in rubles (but in currency will respectively be reduced).

Forecast of IDC:-15% in currency and-1% in rubles

The forecast of IT market for 2015 made by IDC at the rate of fall of GDP by 3%, the annual average dollar exchange rate of 45 rub, the continuing escalation of sanctions, and reduction of prices of oil to level less than $80 - $95 for Brent barrel, assumes significant recession of sales in currency[4].

According to analysts of the company, in 2015 sales of the equipment in Russia should drop by 20% in currency (3% in rubles), sales of software - for 25% in currency (9% in rubles), and IT services to show decline by 10% in currency, but in rubles grow by 9%. In general the Russian IT market, according to the forecast of IDC, should drop by 18% in currency and for 1% in rubles.

2014

The largest IT companies

TAdviser100 ranking: The largest IT companies in Russia

Pivot table of estimates of market size

Image:ИТ-рынок России 2014.jpg

Data of PMR: The market sank for 17.5% in euro

On July 14, 2015 the PMR analytical company published results of a research of the Russian IT market. Its volume as experts found out, without currency factors decreased a little, and taking into account devaluation of ruble recession was more than essential.

PMR follows from the report that in 2014 sales of products and services in information technology field made about 700 billion rubles in Russia that is 1.6% less, than the previous year. In European currency which rate against ruble considerably grew in the fourth quarter 2014 the Russian market showed 17.5 percent decrease — to 14 billion euros.

In rubles the Russian IT market dropped by 1.6% in 2014, however in euro recession was much stronger — for 17.5%

Specialists say that assessment in euro characterizes a situation better in the domestic industry as the most part of the equipment and the software has a foreign origin here, and the prices of such products directly depend on exchange rate fluctuation.

Rapid devaluation of ruble in the second half of 2014 led to rise in price of foreign IT solutions that, in turn, affected increase in market size in ruble expression. However, even if to exclude adverse change of currency rates, in Russia sharp decline in demand for IT products and services which can be compared with a situation of 2009, said in the research PMR all the same takes place.

According to analysts, political and economic difficulties in Russia and also exchange rate fluctuations are not the main factors which defined a picture of the Russian IT market in 2014. Stagnation began to be shown here in 2013, and many participants of the industry still then spoke about saturation of the main segments of the IT industry.

The Russian IT companies which participated in poll of PMR speak about need of adaptation of their strategy under deceleration of growth rates or stagnation of the market. Besides, they agreed in opinion that recovery of IT market can happen on condition of the general economic restructuring, creation of new innovative companies and the industries in the country.

Specialists say, in 2015 that the situation in the Russian IT market is indefinite and there will be like that in the next five years.[5]

Data of the Ministry of Economic Development

In 2014 the volume of capacity of IT market is estimated in the amount of 698  billion rubles, said in the forecast of social and economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015 and for planning period of 2016-2017, the prepared Ministry of Economic Development in September, 2014. In the same place revised estimate of IT market for 2013 - 658  billion rubles is given. It was slightly higher than the preliminary estimate made by department in February, 2014: then data on market size were provided to 635 billion rubles.

At basic option of development of economy of Russia (assumes preserving of the inertial trends which developed during the last period, the conservative investment policy of private companies, limited expenses on development of the companies of the infrastructure sector at stagnation of the state demand) the Ministry of Economic Development predicts by 2017 growth of IT market more than for 6% in comparison with  2013.

The further nature of development of the domestic IT industry will be caused by set of global and local trends among which: increase in demand for "smart devices" and Internet services, further implementation of IT systems in business management, automation of a public sector, note in the Ministry of Economic Development.

The highest potential has a segment of development of software products, also the segment of system integration and distribution as demand for information technologies will increase within the country will continue to grow however.

The perspective directions of development of IT, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, will become:cloud computing, mobile applications,information security, new human-computer interfaces, neurotechnologies. Growth of volume of software for mobile devices will continue that is connected with mass increase in demand for smartphones and mobile devices.

Also increase in inventions in the field of ICT is expected. According to forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the number of the patents granted in this sphere will increase in 2017 by 13% in comparison with 2013 and will be 4516  units. Their share in a total quantity of the granted patents will increase to 10.6% against 9% in 2013. The number of the certificates granted on the computer programs of the database and topology of integrated microcircuits will be in 2017 13025 units (94.6% to the level of 2013).

In structure of the IT market by 2017 there will be changes towards increase in a market share of software tools and the market of services at decrease in a share of hardware, note in the Ministry of Economic Development.

IDC Data:-16% in dollars to $29.3 billion

On March 19, 2015 the IDC company noted "dramatic nature" of the economic and political events occurring in our country[6].

"Since 1990, vendors in Russia had to deal with the instability periods. Nevertheless, declines in sales were quickly recovered therefore in Russia it was accepted to make of the volatility periods light. But everything changed in 2014: it seems that the Russian economy, and respectively IT market, were included into a long band of recession", - the company in the press release noted[7].

By calculations of specialists of the company, the Russian Itrynk's volume decreased in 2014 by 16% to $29.3 billion (data of March, 2016).

It is interesting that in October, 2014, estimating drivers of growth, analysts of IDC said that they on development of IT market of Russia will have a positive impact rather high prices of oil, the extending interaction with China, new opportunities of business interaction within the Eurasian Economic Union. As positive factors also the impact of processes of import substitution in defense industry, expansion of availability of clouds in the Russian Federation with assistance of the international suppliers and wider use of the Internet was noted.

In particular, it was noted that the defense industry of the Russian Federation will invest more in local suppliers. There is a plan of replacement of the western IT products in defense industry on products with the open code, and the government creates the plan of transition meaning replacement of the import equipment with domestic IT products including development of own processor. A main objective is security of automated systems of control of arms. All this will lead to considerable costs for IT services, in particular on services in development of special applications, IT consulting and system integration.

Concerning restraining factors of IT market, analysts of IDC noted the international difficulties in the country in connection with a situation in Ukraine, deceleration of growth of the Russian economy, withdrawal of the capital from the country, insufficient diversification of economy, the continuing weakening of ruble exchange rate.

Among other it was noted that large government projects quite often are not really effective. The crossed functions of federal and regional structures lead to growth of cost of IT projects, the broken deadlines and the inflated budgets.

In 2015 consumers of the Russian modern technologies will be forced to bring the expenditure into accord with new economic realities, spoke in IDC. The Russian corporate sector will review all aspects of the expenses, including model of use of IT. In a public sector emergence of the further legislative initiatives directed to support of local producers in state procurements is expected, analysts noted.

According to Robert Farish (Robert Farish), the vice president of IDC company in the CIS, the business activity in Russia is politized, the structure and Itrynk's volume in Russia will feel a negative impact.

The company points to opinion of the majority Itvendorov in Russia, expressed expectations of difficult 2015.

IDC consider low the probability of revival of IT market of the Russian Federation in 2016.

Boris Bobrovnikov's forecast was correct

According to the company executive Croc Boris Bobrovnikov, the Russian IT market in 2014 will drop by 15% in euro and for 13% in dollars[8].

2013

RAEX: the leading Russian IT companies sharply slowed down growth

According to the ranking of the largest domestic IT companies at the end of 2013 made by RAEX rating agency, growth rates of their revenue decreased almost by 20 percentage points. Total revenue of the participating companies of the present list increased for last year by only 2% and made 451.4 billion rubles (in 2012 – for 21.5%, in the 2011th – for 30.7%).

Stagnation in the market of ICT is connected as with reduction of investments into non-financial assets (according to Rosstat, for 2013 their volume was 9.66 trillion rubles against 9.77 trillion rubles the previous year), and with end of large-scale infrastructure projects which led to falling of number and order amount on integration with large-scale supplies of equipment and software. By estimates of RAEX, the gain of total revenue of participants of a ranking in a segment of supplies of equipment and the software within integration projects was in 2013 the ode negative and made minus of 13% (against +22% in 2012). From all types of IT activity of supply of equipment and software meanwhile the only direction where change of total sales of participants of a ranking was negative.

The greatest share of revenue of participants of a ranking in 2013 is the share of a segment of IT services. Totally consulting and integration, support and training brought to the leading IT companies of 207.3 billion rubles (46% of their total sales).

The most noticeable rates the direction of software development develops: based on 2013 the gain of total revenue of participants of a ranking made 16% here, and its volume - nearly 50 billion rubles.

"The need for software is quite often dictated by the aspiration of the customer to increase the efficiency by technologization of different spheres of activity for the purpose of cost reduction. Separately for developers of software demand for IT solutions from the state in connection with transition to electronic document management and continuation to an urs on development of remote nature of interaction of the state with the external environment works", – Vartan Hanferyan, the analyst of RAEX notes.

According to forecasts of RAEX, in the ICT market decrease in revenue in a segment of integration deliveries will continue, and will continue to urge on the market IT services. As for customers, participants of a ranking expect that the significant share will be occupied in the nearest future by a public sector, in connection with the program of development of the IT industry on the near-term outlook.

IDC Data: $34.49 billion (+0.8%)

According to IDC of February, 2015, the volume of the Russian IT market in 2013 was 34.49 billion dollars that is 0.8% more, than the previous year[9].

Earlier in IDC announced decrease in the market for this period. According to the company, in 2013 the Russian IT market was reduced by 0.9% in comparison with previous year and made 33,358.91 mln. dollars. It is interesting what else in October, 2013 IDC predicted that growth of IT market of Russia in 2013 will not exceed 7%.

"Times of two-digit digits of annual growth rate of the Russian IT market remained in the past. Nevertheless, the market will continue moderate growth thanks to action of a number of factors to which it is possible to carry rather high prices of oil, process of preparation for large-scale international sporting events, the general revenue growth of the population and also bigger penetration of the Internet, – Victor Pratusevich, the leading consultant of IDC said. – Growth will be especially considerable in sectors of mobile solutions, the software and IT services".

Data of February, 2014

According to the forecast the highest gain of rate of development - more than 10%, had to be observed in technology segments of the market - the software, servers of the average level, the IT service. The markets of servers of a line hi-end and personal computers, predictably will show reduction – almost for 10% and for 6.5%, respectively.

As a result the equipment segment in 2013 decreased by 3.5% in comparison with last year while IT services and the sector of the packaged software grew by 8.1 and 3.4% respectively.

The tendency to deceleration of growth was shown also by the Russian market of software, but it reached the maximum historical value in 4.99 billion dollars. More than a half of this amount is the share of different applications, about 30% − on infrastructure to software, slightly less than 20% − software for application development.

In a segment of applications the most demanded in 2013 were solutions for automation of enterprise management systems:

Process of use of cloud computing in Russia considerably lags behind world indicators: in the general structure of the market of software costs for cloud solutions do not exceed several percent. Large Russian business so far hardly refuses internal corporate solutions. The most probable, according to IDC, is the scenario of use of hybrid clouds at which separate divisions in the company will use cloud services.

The market of IT services in 2013 showed the smallest growth rates for the last few years and stopped on a mark of 7.73 billion dollars that is 8.1% more, than the previous year. This segment of the market is still insufficiently transparent as many Russian supplier companies prefer not to disclose details of the activity.

Data of the Ministry of Economic Development

In 2013 the volume of IT market is estimated in the amount of 762.3 billion rubles (106.9% in the comparable prices by 2012). At the same time, the total amount of IT products made by the Russian companies is about 0.6% of the world market. Domestic IT industry satisfies requirements of the Russian market for 25%, the state and the companies with the state participation remain main customers, the MEDT notes. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Russian IT market in 2013 can grow by 6.9%. Software development will become a main growth driver, and the main customer — the state and the companies with the state participation.

In February, 2014 information on the volume of the Russian market of information technologies was published - by a preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development in 2013 it made 635 billion rubles. Such data are provided in monitoring about results of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2013 published by the ministry[10].

In 2012, according to similar last year's monitoring, the size of the market of IT was 716 billion rubles, and in 2011 – 649 billion. Thus, in a year this indicator decreased by 81 billion rubles, and in relation to 2011 – by 14 billion rubles. The Ministry of Economic Development could not explain the reason of falling of the market and changes in its structure. The Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications believes that the main factor of "jumps" of digits — refining of a technique of calculation, but not a market change.

The software, services, personal computers, the server hardware and storage systems belongs to IT market by a new technique. Printing devices (30-40 billion rubles do not belong, according to the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications) and tablets (50-60 billion rubles).

In 2012 the IT market volume counted by a technique of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications was 620 billion rubles. "The digits specified in data of monitoring of Ministry of Economics in 2013 are based on the planned targets specified in our strategy, - say in the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications. - In this regard the digit of 635 billion for 2013 looks quite reasonable".

The most part of the market of information technologies in 2013, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, was made by a segment of hardware - 56.1%. On the software 19.5%, were the share of IT services – 24.4%.

The previous year the segment of the equipment made 50.3%, software - 20.9%, services – 28.8%. Thus, the share of "iron" in structure of the Russian IT market in 2013 if to trust data of the Ministry of Economic Development, considerably increased.

The conclusion can be drawn on the accuracy of calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development, having compared the forecast of volume of IT market in 2013 and total value. At the end of September, 2012 the ministry assumed that the market will reach 762.3 billion rubles. It on 127.3 billion exceeds the value specified in the preliminary estimate published in February, 2014.

Data of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications

Less than 4% (30 billion rubles) of the Russian software market are occupied by domestic manufacturers and developers. According to the Minister of Telecom and Mass Communications Nikolai Nikiforov, the only completely Russian sector in information technologies are IT services. The Minister of Telecom and Mass Communications said it at a meeting of the Government of Russia, submitting to the Cabinet the draft of the strategy of development for the industry for 2014-2020 and on perspective till 2025.

"Nearly 100% of the equipment are imported, among the software of import more than 75%, the Russian sector only almost completely are IT services, - Nikolai Nikiforov explained. - In other words, we buy the IT equipment abroad, and we integrate it". 120 billion rubles (20%) of the market make IT services of the Russian companies.

In confirmation of the words of the minister the strategy developed the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications for the term of 2014-2020 is directed to increase in the country of origin of IT products which will be demanded in global market.

PMR:-0.5% to 711.6 billion rub

The volume of the Russian market of IT products and services in 2013 reached 711.6 billion rubles It 0.5% below in comparison with 2012, the PMR research company in September, 2014 reported[11]

The market was reduced for the first time since 2009, analysts noted. For comparison, in 2012 market size grew by 13.9% in comparison with 2011.

At the end of 2012 some segments of the Russian IT market began to show recession. However none of the Russian market analysts expected that in 2013 the market in general will show negative dynamics. They were uniform in opinion that growth will be, though modest.

In foreign currency reduction of the market was more considerable that is caused by ruble depreciation: decrease in euro was 6%, in US dollars — 3%.

In 2013 short-term projects prevailed, at the same time the tendency to expense optimization remained. Corporate clients in Russia reduced the number of purchases of the new equipment and program licenses and increased expenses on support of IT and outsourcing.

Reduction of activity of corporate clients in 2013 made the state the important customer. Many integrators announced increase in a share of public contracts in total sales.

Besides, in 2013 distributors faced a payment delay, were forced to make concessions, allowing clients to make payment of projects by installments. In 2013 in the Russian IT market there were quite quiet changes. Sales considerably did not fall as it was at the end of 2008 and 2009. Projects were not cancelled, and their budgets were not reviewed. Stagnation reflects market evolution, on not influence of any external factors, commented in PMR.

Two largest geographical regions of the Russian IT market are Moscow and St. Petersburg. The lion share of expenses on information technologies in the country is the share of them. The reason of it is that in these cities there are federal authorities and offices of most the largest companies. The set of the IT contracts implemented in regions consist in Moscow. 25% of all IT expenses in Russia are the share of Moscow.

According to the forecast of analysts, in 2014 the volume of the Russian market of IT products and services will be reduced by 3% in rubles in comparison with 2013, i.e. negative dynamics will amplify. According to experts, mainly this decrease will be caused by cost reduction on the hardware, including personal computers.

Analysts of PMR partially connect dynamics of the IT market in Russia with a macroeconomic situation. "Now the economy of Russia balanirut between stagnation and moderate growth" — experts say. According to their forecast, GDP growth of Russia next year will be reduced to 1% in comparison by growth of 1.3% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2012.

Let's remind that according to the forecast of PMR of August, 2013, the Russian IT market in 2013 had to grow by 8.4% up to 735 billion rubles. In ruble expression growth will be maximum, analysts said: in dollars the market will grow by 7.8%, in euro - for 6.2%.

Analysts believed that in 2013 growth will partially form due to outsourcing while the hardware segment will practically cease to play the role in growth - because of market saturation.

Growth of the Russian IT market also has to be promoted by the government: due to financing of technoparks and decrease in social tax for the hi-tech enterprises on 30% to 14% (such rate is going to be saved till 2021). According to PMR, more than one take tax advantage - thirds of the IT companies in Russia.

Dynamics of IT market of analytics of PMR is also connected with change of the gross domestic product (GDP). In 2012 GDP growth was 3.4%, however in 2013 the indicator will be less. During the period from January to April, 2013 GDP growth was only 1.8% in comparison with the same period of last year. It is expected that according to the results of all 2013 the indicator will not exceed 3%.

IT market of Russia in 2030? Forecast of the authorities

In March, 2013 government Russia approved the forecast of long-term social and economic development of the country until 2030 developed Ministry of Economic Development under the decree of the president Vladimir Putin , and mentioning including, and IT market.

The authorities predicted rates of development and volume of IT market to the specified term taking into account several possible scenarios of development of the Russian economy. In particular, the Ministry of Economic Development selected three main scenarios: conservative (it is characterized by moderate long-term rates of development on the basis of active upgrade of energy industry at relative lag in civil and high technologies), the innovation (relies on development of transport infrastructure and high technology productions along with upgrade of energy industry) and the target (forced) scenario (it is characterized by the raised form of accumulation of private business, creation of the large-scale non-oil sector and considerable inflow of the foreign capital).

According to the forecast of officials, at the conservative scenario of economic development by 2030 the volume of the Russian IT market will increase by 2.7 times in relation to an indicator of 2011 and will reach 4102.6 billion rubles, and at the innovation scenario – will grow by 3.7 times to 5640.4 billion rubles.

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Decrease in a share of hardware in its general structure and transition to formation of the markets of software and services will become a top trend of IT market in Russia these years, consider in the Ministry of Economic Development. At the same time the market share of software and the market of services at the innovation scenario will be higher, than in the conservative scenario of development.

Values on separate segments of IT market on the basis of these technology platforms in which there are differences from the indicators given in the report of officials are also given in the document. In particular, technical platforms estimated the volume of the Russian market of software for 2011 at 208.5 billion rubles and predict its growth by 2020 to 858 billion rubles.

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To the key scientific and technology trends creating IT market, the authorities refer development of researches in the field of creation of a unified managing environment and a common information space of transport infrastructure, development of researches in the field of the new principles of the organization of calculations and creation of the computing architecture constructed on new paradigms, researches in the field of the systems of machine learning based on new methods and algorithms, researches in the field of communication infrastructures at terabitovy information transmission rates, development of supercomputer calculations due to development of new algorithms for the solution of applied tasks with difficult logic of computation process and others.

The forecast of IDC till 2018

  • According to the forecast of IDC (October, 2013) from 2013 to 2017 the annual growth of expenses on IT in Russia will be higher on average for 6% and in 2017 the absolute amount of costs will be $46.7 billion. Retailers will show high growth - 10.7% on average in a year. Indicators on banks and insurance companies can reach 8.2%, and suppliers of other financial services will show average growth rate of expenses in 13.9% consider in IDC.

  • By estimates of IDC (March, 2013), in the next five years IT market of Russia will grow only for 5-7% a year. The analyst of IDC Timur Farukshin is convinced that in the next five years growth of the market will be caused by investments into "the third IT platform", i.e. into mobile devices, applications for them, social networks and cloud computing. "Costs of the companies for "the second platform" are the standard personal computers, local and global networks organized on the client-server architecture - in the next years will remain at the previous level, - Farukshin explained. - And growth of the market will happen for the investment account to "the third platform".

According to IDC, today less than 50% of the European companies are ready to work with such manifestation of "the third platform" as Big Data. At the same time actively use clouds and social networks.

The share of "the third platform" in structure of volume of IT market will increase along with growth of need of use of mobile devices. In 2012 the share of smartphones in the market of personal devices, according to IDC, approached 50% and made 11.2 million pieces. The remained half of personal devices are the share of the PC (4.3 million pieces), notebooks (8.4 million) and tablet PCs (900 million). It is supposed that by 2015 in the Russian market there will be 17.7 million smartphones, 3.9 million PCs, 13 million notebooks and 3.2 million tablets.

Earlier forecasts of IDC which completely did not come true are given below.

  • During the period from 2012 to 2016 IDC expects steady growth of costs for IT in Russia. During the predicted period these costs will increase annually on average by 8% and in 2016 will make $47.3 billion. Nevertheless, the world economic instability and the worsening demographic country situation can negatively influence also a situation in the Russian IT market.

  • During the period predicted earlier IDC from 2011 to 2015 expenses on IT will grow in Russia annually on average for 11.6% and in 2015 will make $41.1 billion. Growth rates will be the highest for retailers (on average 17.4% a year). Also relatively high growth rates (15.1%) are predicted for the integrated vertical covering the enterprises of transport, communications, power and housing and public utilities.

  • During the period predicted earlier IDC from 2010 to 2014 expenses on IT will grow in Russia annually on average for 16.8% and in 2014 will make $34.9 billion. Growth rates will be the highest for the market of home users (on average 19.8% a year). Also relatively high growth rates (17.3%) are predicted for the integrated vertical covering the enterprises of transport, communications, power and housing and public utilities.

2012

Ministry of Economic Development: Growth of +6.7% and 732 billion rub

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, at the end of 2012 the volume of the Russian IT market grew by 6.7% relatively 2011 and reached 732 billion rubles. The general climate changed, deceleration of sales, decrease in marginality is felt. Customers considerably raised quality requirements of the provided services, and it forces the IT companies to work more effectively.

Data of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications

The total amount of in-Russian IT market is 620 billion rubles for 2012. The share of domestic manufacturers of software on it is low: 30 billion or less than 4%. About another 20% are the share of IT services of the Russian companies. These are 120 billion rubles.

Along with sales on domestic market IT products made in the country in large volume leave for export. The total amount of export — more than 4 billion dollars USA (or about 120 billion rubles). The high rate of export very positively characterizes our IT industry which makes competitive products in the conditions of global economy.

In the IT industry of Russia work about highly skilled 300 thousand specialists. Plus of 700 thousand people works at the enterprises which are directly connected with the IT industry. On number of jobs, indicators of development and export the IT industry of Russia already overtook many industries of domestic economy.

The most successful IT companies work in the sector of drawing products and services. They are in the lead in the segments both in the Russian market (1C), and on world: ABBYY, Kaspersky Lab. However, so far in a total amount of global production of IT products we are hardly noticeable: the contribution of Russia is less than 1%, in TOP 100 of the world IT companies there is no Russian. To world measures, even the largest domestic IT-Business are an average by the size on a global scale. At the same time considering the level of technologies and ready practices in the perspective directions it can be changed.

Rates of further development of the IT industry will be defined by capability of the state to solve a number of problems:

  • staff shortage (70% of IT-Business are people, the existing education system lets out not those specialists, but even they are not enough: 150 thousand instead of required 350 thousand for the next 5 years),
  • insufficient quantity of research and development (so far all industry lives on the Soviet scientific backlog, but it will come to an end soon),
  • imperfection of the legislation,
  • the low level of koordination of actions of public authorities with assistance of the IT industry.

IDC: Market size is $34 billion

Final assessment of IDC company of size of the market of IT in Russia in 2012 made $34 billion.

Earlier, according to IDC, sounded in February, 2013, the Russian IT market in 2012 grew by only 3.9% - to $36 billion from which:

  • the most part, $24 billion, fell on sale of the equipment,
  • about $7 billion more – on IT services,
  • and income from sale of the software was the remained $5 billion.

"It is the lowest level of growth of the market for the last decades, except for crisis years - for example, 2008", - the director of the consulting "IDC Russia and CIS" Timur Farukshin told journalists.
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Assessment about record-breaking low growth rates was made on the basis of information for the I-III quarters 2012 and without data for the IV quarter.

It is interesting what the Ministry of Economic Development predicted that the volume of the domestic market of information technologies in 2012 will be 732 billion rubles that above a similar indicator of 2011 (648.6 billion rubles) for 6.7%.

According to Timur Farukshin, decrease in growth rates of IT market is in terms of money connected with an economic crisis. "Though say that the peak of crisis is passed, but the same prices of oil do not grow and there is no extra money on development of IT in the companies, - the top manager (the quote by Interfax) said. - Also it is necessary to consider that in quantitative expression the market grew more - just the cost of servers and computers constantly decreases. In general in Russia the situation is not bad - IT market volume does not grow in many other countries of Eastern Europe at all, and decreases"
.

PMR: Growth of 13.9% and 678 billion rub

According to the Polish PMR, the volume of the Russian market of IT products and services in 2012 reached 678 billion rubles. In comparison with 2011 the market grew by 13.9%. In comparison with 2011 the growth rate decreased. At the end of 2011 in rubles the indicator of growth reached about 15%. However analysts note what is 2012 the third in a row year according to the results of which the Russian IT market prodemonstirovat two-digit growth rate, despite its decrease.

The actual growth was higher, than experts calculated. In July, 2012 analysts of PMR predicted that in 2012 growth will be 12.5% - to 657 billion rubles.

Data for 2012 - the forecast of July, 2012.

"Most the leading vendors, distributors and system integrators in Russia reported about growth of revenue at the end of 2012. At the same time nearly a half of growth was created thanks to devaluation of Russian ruble in relation to U.S. dollar", the report says. In dollar expression growth was 7.5%, and in euro - 16.4%.
"In 2012 the Russian IT market was better balanced. Sales of services, program and the hardware were comparable, strong jumps were not observed in one of segments. This results from the fact that IT market in Russia reached a maturity therefore in each of segments the value of growth cannot be too high", - one of authors of the report Pawel Olszynka explained.
"We expect that the annual average growth rate of the Russian IT market will reach 9% within the next 5 years", - the analyst of PMR said in July, 2012, having warned that this forecast is based on a condition of macroeconomic stability during the specified period. According to him, many Russian IT companies call the probability of the second wave of crisis and reduction of prices of oil and gas the most dangerous threats to development of the IT industry in Russia[12].

2011

IDC: $32 billion

According to IDC, costs for IT in Russia in 2011 exceeded $32.1 billion. The main market size fell on home users. Thanks to revenue growth of the population, deceleration of rates of inflation and also bigger price availability of many IT products, home users increased the expenses on the PC, mobile devices and applications and also on software of information security, according to the report of analytical company.

Victor Pratusevich, the leading consultant of IDC, noted that the Russian economy is one of EMEA which are most quickly growing in the region. Last year growth rates of expenses on IT in a number of the industries exceeded 20%, the expert said. "The high prices of raw materials together with intention of the government to carry out upgrade of national economy serve as the main guarantors of investments into IT in the near future", he believes.

In the corporate sector the main volume of costs for IT fell on the enterprises of the transport, communication and power industries. A number of communication holdings continued policy of merger of less large companies of the industry that demanded additional investments into integration of the equipment and applications. Growth of the mobile Internet and aspiration of many market participants to develop cloud services promoted growth of expenses on infrastructure and consulting services.

Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications: 649 billion rub

According to the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications, in 2011 the IT market increased by 14.6% and made 649 billion rubles. According to information provided to the Ministry of Economic Development, the IT market made also 649 billion rubles, but increased by 6.6% in relation to 2010.

In February, 2012 in the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation provided data on sales pattern in the IT market in 2011 on segments:

  • the hardware - 51.2% of the market;
  • IT services - 28.4%;
  • SOFTWARE - 20.4%.

According to PMR, in 2011 the size of the market of IT products and services in Russia grew by 15.4% in comparison with 2010 up to 584.4 billion rubles (14.3 billion euros). The volume of the Russian IT market in 2011 for the first time exceeded peak value of pre-crisis 2008 in 14.1 billion euros[13].

Growth after the economic crisis in 2009 was promoted by the following factors:

  • sustainable development of the Russian economy in the second half of 2010 and in 2011 which allowed to increase investments into the corporate sector;
  • expansion of telecommunication companies and providers of services which started construction of new data processing centers, and
  • investments into the program of the electronic government.

For 2011 most the leading vendors and system integrators recorded two-digit growth rates. Among the largest IT projects in Russia in 2010-2011 analysts noted SAP implementation in Gazprom and Severstal, the contract with Oracle signed by MTS, the agreement of Gazprom on purchase of the software (S) with Microsoft, implementation of Oracle e-Business Suite in Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation and Oracle Siebel CRM - in Sberbank.

Analysts of IDC At the end of 2011 expected growth of expenses on IT by 13.3% and increases in market size up to $26.9 billion (the forecast on November 17, 2011). The greatest growth rates – over 20% - will be shown by a segment of IT services. In the previous report of analytics for all predicted period foretold the maximum growth in an equipment segment.[14]

Image:Рынок ИТ в России 2009-2012 (прогноз IDC).JPG

Source: IDC, September, 2011

Though the Russian IT market is considered to be developing, at the end of 2011 analysts of Pierre Audoin Consultants (PAC) saw the first signs of its transition to a maturity. Qualitatively changed demand for technologies from banks allows to draw such conclusions and telecommunication companies. Practically reached saturation implementation of IT in large retail networks – on level the constructed infrastructure does not concede to global retailers. At the same time, very strong dependence of the Russian market on the hardware which share makes 46% against 27% in countries of Western Europe still remains.

2010

IT market of Russia against the background of other countries

According to Timur Farukshin (IDC), in a segment of expenses on the IT equipment Russia in 2010 was included into ten the leading countries, with the indicator of total amount of expenses for 12% exceeding the average world value and by only 3-5 times lagged behind countries of Western Europe and the USA per capita.

However on expenses on software we took already the 16th place, lagging behind the average world value for 55%, and the USA and Western Europe – respectively in 20 and 10 times.

With IT services the situation is even worse: The 22nd place, lag respectively for 66%, in 24 and 17 times[15].

IDC: The volume of IT market is $28 billion

By estimates of IDC, IT market volume in Russia at the end of 2010 was $23.7 billion. Its main share, as well as the previous year, is the share of home users – 35.7%[16]. They are followed by the enterprises of transport, communication and power sectors. Also in IDC select a segment of state structures, education and health care.

Later the company reviewed the assessment of the amount of the market and increased it to $28 billion.

Ministry of Economic Development: the market grew to 565.8 billion rubles (+3.7%)

According to the Ministry of Economic Development (on February 3, 2011) in the comparable prices, i.e. taking purchasing power of ruble into account in comparison with 2009 the volume of IT market of Russia in 2010 grew by 3.7% and was 565.8 billion rubles against 496.5 billion rubles in 2009. The most part of this volume is the share of hardware - 51.4%, IT services – 28.4%, and the share of the software made 20.2%.

According to the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications, published earlier, the total amount of revenue of IT market also equaled 565.8 billion rubles. But dynamics of growth at two ministries differs strikingly. According to industry department, the IT market in 2010 increased by 14%. The reason of discrepancy is in what the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications does not consider inflation in the calculations.

Preliminary data of the MEDT, February, 2011.

The IT markets and communications grow more slowly, than the total amount of the goods made in the country and the rendered services. In a year the ICT share (at positive indicators of the industry by any estimates) in GDP of the country decreased to 4% (4.6% a year ago, 4.2% in 2008 and 4.8% in 2007).

Image:Цены на нефть и рост рынка ИТ в России 1994-2010.JPG

In estimates of number of the computers operated in the country and Internet users of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications and the Ministry of Economic Development met. For 2010 in the country it became 18.4% more than the PC - 61.9 million pieces, their more than 74% them are connected to the Internet.

Forecast of GlobalCIO: growth of IT budgets for 5-10%

In 2010 IT budgets of the large Russian companies will rise 5-10%, follows from the research prepared by analytical center of the union of IT directors —[17]. The center polled IT directors of 237 Russian companies with the aggregate turnover about $53 billion and the general IT budget at the level of $0.5 billion. As a result it became clear that the volume of expenses on information technologies will average in 2010 0.87% of revenue of these companies against 0.8% in 2009. So the relation of IT costs to revenue will increase approximately by 9%. At the similar foreign companies this indicator is two-three times higher — they spend for IT 1.7-2.4% of annual revenues (depending on business scale), the study says.

And in terms of one employee growth of IT budgets is hardly noticeable at all: in 2010, as well as in 2009, the companies invest about $1600 for the person in IT. It is 40% less, than in pre-crisis times. For example, in 2008 IT budgets of the largest Russian companies averaged $2700 for the employee.

Many IT projects begun before crisis in 2009 were not financed, but continued to develop in 2010, the vice president of VimpelCom for IT Vladimir Filippov told through the press service. Therefore it is more correct to compare 2010 not to previous, and since 2008, he considers. In crisis many projects were frozen therefore in absolute values IT expenses of 2010 will be significantly higher than last year's, the press secretary of MTS Irina Osadchaya agrees.

In October, 2010 analysts of IDC predicted that sales of IT products and services in Russia will increase in 2010 by 17.3%. But calculations of IDC included also IT expenses of private users and budget structures. Besides, unlike GlobalCIO, IDC polled IT suppliers who are inclined to estimate optimistically market prospects, the Chief Editor of the GlobalCIO portal Konstantin Zimin explains. He estimates an error of the research at 5-6 items.

According to Filippov, the Russian IT budgets did not reach pre-crisis levels yet, and the rate of their growth IDC, average between estimates, and GlobalCIO. And Osadchaya considers that assessment of IDC is closer to reality.

However, in the near future the union of IT directors looks with optimism. Are going to implement new IT-systems in 2010-2011, according to a research, 1.5-3 times more than the companies, than in 2009, and plans for development of already implemented systems are 1.5-2 times higher, than in 2009.

2009

On January 13, 2010 at a meeting with journalists the Minister of Communications Igor Shchegolev declared about 8% decrease in the volume of income of the IT companies in 2009 in comparison with 2008 [18].

In February, 2010 the director of the department of economy and finance of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications Alexander Narukavnikov reported that at the end of 2009 the volume of IT market of Russia was 500 billion rubles, 28% of the total amount of revenue of the ICT industry.

In 2008 the ministry expected significant growth in IT market, believing that it will make 32.8%. Execution of this forecast would allow the Russian IT industry to earn 770 billion rubles in comparison with 580 billion rubles in 2008. Upon instead of growth the market showed falling on 80 billion rubles. Thus, in percentage expression in comparison with 2008 recession was about 13.8%.

At the beginning of 2010 the Minister of Communications Igor Shchegolev called the last year's forecast of department "a technical error". He also said that fall of revenues of the IT companies in 2009 in comparison with 2008 was 8%.

At the beginning of February, 2010 the Ministry of Economic Development gave similar calculation of results of work of the IT industry. By a preliminary estimate of this department the volume of IT market was 496.5 billion rubles, 87% of the level of 2008 in the comparable prices.

In February, 2010 in the Ministry of Economic Development provided data on revenue breakdown in the IT market on segments:

  • hardware - 51.4%,
  • software tools - 20%,
  • services - 28.6%[19].

According to IDC, the main volume of the Russian market in 2009 is the share of home users; enterprises of transport, communications, power and housing and public utilities; and also organizations of authorities, education and health care.

2008

According to preliminary data IDC growth in sales of IT services and products to the Russian corporate clients slowed down up to 10.5% from about 35% the previous year.

Distribution of revenue of the IT companies by branches of the economy in 2008
[20]

Notes