IT market of Russia

Market size

TAdviser data includes only enterprise information technology costs:

• 2022 - 2.1 trillion rubles ($30.66 billion)

Previously, IDC published the following indicators of the IT market volume in Russia, which, according to the company's methodology, includes expenses of the population and the corporate sector:

• 2021 - $31.2 billion
• 2020 - $24.66 billion (+ 2%, preliminary estimate) or 1.833 trillion rubles (+ 14%)
• 2019 - $24.18 billion (+ 7%)
• 2018 - $22.6 billion (spring 2018 forecast)
• 2017 - $21.8 billion
• 2016 - $17 billion
• 2015 - $17.4 billion (-38%)
• 2014 - $29.3 billion (-16%)
• 2013 - $34.49 billion
• 2012 - $34 billion
• 2011 - $32.1 billion
• 2010 - $28 billion
• 2009 - $21 billion
• 2008 - $31 billion

ICT market of Russia

Main article: Russian ICT market

The IT market is part of a larger industry of information communication technologies (ICT, ICT), which also includes communication service providers.

Backbone IT companies and telecom operators in Russia

Main article: Backbone IT companies and telecom operators in Russia

Backbone organizations are large corporations and holdings that make a significant contribution to the development of the country's economy. Inclusion in the list of backbone provides the company with access to preferential lending and state guarantees for investment projects, debt refinancing, etc.

Market segments

Main article: Segments of the Russian IT market

Catalog of TAdviser materials on individual segments of the Russian IT market.

Development strategy, trends, investments

• Strategy for the development of the information technology industry in Russia
• IT market trends in Russia
• Business climate of IT companies in Russia
• Venture capital investments in the IT sector of Russia

The largest IT companies in Russia

• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2022
• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2021
• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2020
• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2019
• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2018
• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2017
• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2016
• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2015

2024

Natalia Kasperskaya estimated the volume of the Russian IT market at 5.5 trillion rubles

The volume of the Russian IT market is 5.5 trillion rubles. Natalia Kasperskaya, CEO of Infowatch and Chairman of the Board of the Association of Software Product Developers (ARPP) "Domestic Software," voiced this assessment at the anniversary annual meeting of the association.

As follows from Kaspersky's presentation, the volume of the Russian information technology industry in 2022 was measured at 2.17 trillion rubles, the number of IT companies in the country - 100 thousand units, and the number of IT specialists - 781 thousand people. By April 2024, there were almost 1 million IT specialists in the Russian Federation, the head of Infowatch said. She attributed to the trends of the domestic IT market in 2024:

Natalia Kasperskaya

• strengthening the role of the state;
• the growing role of information security;
• "real, not paper import substitution" in the field of software and IT equipment.

Among the challenges, Natalya Kaspersky named:

• restricting access to foreign software and hardware;
• Adapt to changing suppliers and distributors
• increase in prices and terms of delivery of equipment;
• consolidation of the IT market;
• exit of developer companies to IPO. 

We see that the market is now enlarging, companies are starting to go public, and quite successfully. The capitalization of Russian IT companies is growing, and several members of the association have become public companies with us. So I think that this trend will continue, - said the head of the ARPP.

He also cited data according to which the share of Russian software in the volume of purchases in the first three quarters of 2023 amounted to 54.2%.

This pleases, but nevertheless worries the fact that purchases of foreign software amounted to 36.4%. That's a lot. In our opinion, foreign software does not need to be bought at all. If we are engaged in import substitution, then we need to move in this direction, "Kasperskaya added.[1]

Chernyshenko: Revenue of the top 100 Russian IT companies by 2030 will grow 2.5 times

The total revenue of the 100 largest Russian IT companies by 2030 will grow 2.5 times and reach 5.3 trillion rubles thanks to the implementation of the national project Data economics"." The deputy chairman Governments of the Russian Federation Dmitry Chernyshenko announced this forecast on January 17, 2024.

According to the Deputy Prime Minister, by 2030 more than 1,000 technological startups will be supported, about 2,000 solutions and products in the field have been created, and more than 850 thousand have been prepared. IT specialists and citizens will be available 3.5 times more public services online.

Chernyshenko also touched upon data on state-owned companies, in particular, on their IT costs in the period 2022-2024 - they will spend more than 1 trillion rubles. In addition, the Deputy Prime Minister expects that thanks to artificial intelligence technologies, Russia's GDP will grow by 11.2 trillion rubles.

Chernyshenko also stressed that the state should be able to quickly introduce new solutions for prompt response to citizens' problems and business needs. For this, by decree of the president, a single digital platform "GosTech" is being developed.

In the next two years, more than 100 projects will be implemented at it, including ready-made services and standard solutions for the regions. Starting this year, we are starting to transfer systems and services of the constituent entities of Russia to GosTech. It is also important that the platform has an unprecedented level of protection - it is completely based on Russian software and technological solutions, it is protected from natural and cyber threats, - said the Deputy Prime Minister on January 17, 2024.

According to him, in 2023, the digital maturity of the sectors of the economy in Russia exceeded 74%, and all planned socially significant services were transferred online. In turn, the cost of information technology amounted to more than 540 billion rubles.^[2]

What to expect from 2024? Opinions of key players in the Russian IT market

For the Russian IT market 2022-2023. turned out to be difficult and largely turning points: during this period, the course of further development of vendors and IT infrastructure of customers crystallized, which is noticeably different from what it was before. TAdviser talked with representatives of more than 20 Russian IT companies and found out what significant events and trends they expect from 2024. Read more here.

2023

Dynamics of the development of the IT industry in Russia for 2019-2023

The Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) HSE analyzed the development dynamics IT of the industry for 2019-2023. on the basis data Rosstat of and on April 15, 2024 shared with the TAdviser results of his research. According to the document, the industry showed steady growth in key indicators - contribution to, volume of GDP sales of products and services of its own development, headcount and investments. This was facilitated by increasing domestic demand for digital technologies from outside, population business and, states active import substitution in the segments and - ON IT equipments. The positive trend continued throughout the entire period, including in 2020 "covid" and subsequently, when many industries faced a sharp reduction in the supply of imported technological solutions.

According to ISIEZ HSE, in 2019-2023. the volume of sales of proprietary products and IT services increased with an average annual rate of 26%. In the B2B and B2G segments, this was ensured by an increase in sales of circulation domestic software, custom development and support of existing (locally deployed) IT systems, Russian cloud services (SaaS, IaaS), and in the B2C segment - by expanding the audience of Russian online services.

IT industry - No. 1 among large sectors of the economy on the topic of growth in the volume of sales of its own products and services for 2019-2023
.

Since 2019, in terms of gross value added (GVA) dynamics, the IT industry has outstripped most other large sectors of the economy. The average annual growth rate of the GVA IT industry in real terms (CAGR) for 2019-2023 exceeds 10%. As a result, the contribution of the IT industry to GDP reached 2% in 2023, according to the HSE IIEZ report.

IT industry - No. 1 among large sectors of the economy in terms of the GVA growth rate (in prices as of April 2024) and the growth rate of the share in GDP for 2019-2023
.

The number of employees in the IT industry increased annually at double-digit rates. So, according to researchers, only in May-July 2022 there was a short-term decline, but by October 2022 the IT industry made up for minor losses. The average wage in the IT industry is twice the average for the economy.

IT industry - No. 1 among major sectors of the economy in terms of the growth rate of the number of employees and wages for 2019-2023
.

IT companies have been actively increasing investments in fixed assets, primarily in IT equipment. The highest growth rates were observed in 2020, including due to the massive deployment of infrastructure for online services, and in 2022-2023, when the leading factors in increasing capital investments were the intensification of the development of import-substituting circulation software, the expansion of the IT infrastructure of Russian cloud services, a jump in demand for computing power.

IT industry - No. 1 among large sectors of the economy in terms of the growth rate of investment in fixed assets (in prices as of April 2024) for 2019-2023
.

The HSE Research Institute for Research and Development compared the growth dynamics of the IT industry with a similar indicator for other types of economic activity. The comparison took into account all types of economic activities corresponding to the sections of the 1st level of OKVED2 (A, B, C, etc.), as well as the 2nd and 3rd levels (codes of type XX and XX.X), if their share in the economy in terms of the indicator exceeded 1% in 2023 IT^[3]

Growth dynamics of the IT industry: comparison with other economic activities

The share of the IT industry in Russia's GDP approached 2%

At the end of 2023, the share of the IT industry in the country's total GDP approached 2%. Such data from TAdviser on April 10, 2024 were shared in the press service of the State Duma deputy RFAnton Nemkin with reference to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. According to him, in general, the domestic IT industry is developing at an accelerated pace. The Deputy Prime Minister also noted that the state of the national segment of the worldwide network largely reflects the social processes that are taking place in the country.

The driver of the growth of the domestic IT market, of course, was the departure of foreign vendors, said Anton Nemkin, a member of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technology and Communications. Back in 2021, according to analysts, the industry's share in the total GDP structure was less than 1%. It was possible to achieve significant changes by activating the import substitution policy: both in terms of development and in terms of production of the necessary IT equipment.

"Thus, analogues of foreign software are already presented for 90% of solutions, and the volume of investments of the largest state-owned companies in the integration of proprietary software in 2023 reached more than 180 billion rubles. Interestingly, the market instantly reacted to the emergence of a free niche. Already in 2022, the development of computer software and related services became the leader in the growth of new business registrations - 42% more individual entrepreneurs and LLC appeared in the niche compared to 2021, "the deputy said.

According to Nemkin, the growth of the IT market was also influenced by a change in legislative regulation and the introduction of effective measures to support the industry.

"In 2024, the IT development financing program will continue. Companies will be able to apply for state support at 50% of the total cost of the project. At the same time, funding for IT solutions in the industry segments continues. First of all, the Skolkovo Foundation will continue to issue grants for the development and implementation of pilot projects in the field of artificial intelligence, "the parliamentarian continued.

As he specified, domestic developers will be able to apply for a grant in the amount of 20 to 100 million rubles. Another support line is the "Take-off - from startup to IPO" program, for which in 2023 the Government is going to allocate additional funding in the amount of 1 billion rubles.

The IT industry has every chance of taking more stable positions in the total share of GDP, Nemkin said.

"That's what we have to come to. Now the Government is developing the national project "Data Economics," one of the goals of which is to increase GDP by 11.2 trillion rubles due to the active introduction of artificial intelligence technologies. The President of Russia has already instructed to provide funding for the national project in the amount of at least 700 billion rubles, "the deputy said.

According to the parliamentarian, the national project "Economy" data also needs to provide for measures to stimulate the export potential of the industry. A significant part Russian developers is interested in replicating its solutions to friendly markets. countries

Estimate of the IT market volume from APKIT Director Nikolai Komlev - 3.1-3.5 trillion rubles

The volume of the Russian information technology (IT) market in 2023 amounted to about 3.1-3.5 trillion rubles. Nikolai Komlev, executive director of the Association of Computer and Information Technology Enterprises (APKIT), announced this preliminary assessment at the end of February 2024. The analytical company Strategy Partners estimated the market volume at 3.1 trillion rubles at the end of 2023.

According to Nikolai Komlev, in 2023 Russia overcame the critical milestone of import substitution of software. The expert says that the main drivers of the growth of the domestic IT market were "efforts, money and policies" of the state, which accounts for more than half of orders and investments in the industry. Thanks to the support of the authorities, importers began to actively invest in production, said the executive director of APKIT.

He also drew attention to the difficulties faced by market participants. The main problems, he said, are associated with Western sanctions against Russia, which limit Russian IT exports.

The domestic market is too small for the profitability of the IT-Business. When we replace the main one, growth without exports will slow down, - said Komlev (quoted by Rossiyskaya Gazeta).

At the end of 2023, Nikolai Komlev listed several trends that had developed in the Russian IT market by that time. In addition to increasing the state's share of the industry, these are:

• strengthening the role of banks in capital concentration, merging banks and ICT companies, enlarging private holdings that work closely with the state;
• Growing impact of digital service companies on the economy and regulatory issues:
• sanctions and import substitution pushed importers to invest in the production of IT equipment, and integrators and owners of service companies to invest in the development of software products.
• in some cases, sanctions do not lead to the creation of Russian products, but to a change in dependence from European and American vendors to Asian ones. In particular, this situation in 2023 was observed in the field of electronics;
• competition with Western producers is replaced by "intraspecific" competition between products, holdings and capital.

Komlev noted that since the fall of 2023, the Russian IT industry has entered a new period - "post-military, sub-sanctioned, paternalistic, closing informational, with a changing structure of owners, the enlargement of corporations, the opening of industries and a difficult to predict economy."

According to Nikolai Komlev's forecasts, the volume of the Russian IT market by 2030 will grow by an average of 12% per year, surpassing the country's GDP dynamics. Strategy Partners expects the market to grow to 7 trillion rubles by 2030. The volume of the software and IT services segment during the same time will increase by more than 2.5 times and amount to 2.8 trillion rubles, the study says.

According to Strategy Partners analysts, the main drivers of the growth of the Russian IT market are:

• the departure of many IT manufacturers from the Russian Federation, which provoked an accelerated process of switching to independent import solutions;
• government support;
• digital transformation of all sectors of the economy;
• high information security requirements on the part of regulators.

The simultaneous departure of most of the international vendors historically dominant in the Russian market opens up a colossal opportunity for long-term growth for Russian infrastructure software developers. Leading Russian developers with a comprehensive product offer have the potential to export their products to friendly countries, where the demand for replacing solutions from Western vendors is growing, - said Roman Tinyaev, director of the Engineering and Technology practice at Strategy Partners.[4]

Chernyshenko: In 2023, more than 300 billion rubles were invested in domestic IT solutions

Since the beginning of 2023, more than 300 billion rubles have been invested in Russian IT solutions. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko announced this on December 4, 2023 as part of an event by the V.P. Ivannikov Institute for System Programming of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISP RAS), dedicated to the 75th anniversary of domestic information technologies.

According to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, in January-November 2023, the turnover of Russian IT companies reached. According to the Deputy Prime Minister, by the beginning of December 2023, the government is forming a new national project on the data economy on behalf of President Vladimir Putin, which will cover a wide range of areas: from software development to the development of quantum computing.

Today, more than 820 thousand people are involved in the IT industry, and this number will only grow. IT specialties this year have become one of the most popular among applicants to Russian universities. Of course, the development of such a knowledge-intensive digital sphere is impossible without fundamental research. In order for Russia to remain a leading IT power, synergy of the efforts of science, business and the state is needed, - said Dmitry Chernyshenko in early December 2023.

In September 2023, Dmitry Chernyshenko, in a conversation with Komsomolskaya Pravda, said that by the end of the year the authorities would allocate about 900 million rubles to support 10 IT projects. Then the Deputy Prime Minister also noted that the state provides comprehensive support to the IT industry - funding for science is growing, preferences for developers are being created, production is being localized and the export of technological solutions is being promoted.^[5]

What did you remember 2023. Main results and trends. Opinions of key IT market players

Throughout 2023, the events of the previous year continued to affect the Russian economy, including the IT market, but without the "shock effect" that took place earlier. TAdviser spoke with representatives of more than 20 major IT market players to find out how they see the outgoing year for the industry. Read more here.

The number of lawsuits against IT companies that left Russia increased by 20%

In 2023, the number of lawsuits related to non-compliance with the terms of supply and software support increased by approximately 20% in Russia. This is stated in the study of RTM Group, the results of which were published on December 1, 2023.

We are talking about claims against IT companies that left the Russian market due to the current geopolitical situation. These are, in particular, Cisco, Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Microsoft, Oracle and others. The amount of claims is calculated in tens and hundreds of millions of rubles. The defendants in such proceedings are Russian representative offices of foreign structures.

According to the Kommersant newspaper, referring to RTM Group statistics, from January 1 to November 1, 2023, 1,162 judicial acts were issued in Russia as part of litigation related to licensed and mixed software contracts. For comparison, during the same period in 2022, the number of decisions was 981. Thus, year-on-year growth was slightly less than 20%. In 2024, RTM Group experts believe that the number of such litigation with foreign suppliers may increase by 30%.

From February 2022 to September 2023, Russian distributors and integrators collected approximately 4.7 billion rubles from foreign companies that left the Russian Federation. If the defendant does not satisfy the plaintiff's requirements, then the court usually turns a penalty on the Russian assets and property of the losing party - even in the event of bankruptcy of the legal entity. In most of these cases, the claims are related to the non-provision of services provided for in the current contracts, or to the delivery of products that were prepaid but not shipped to the customer.^[6]

By 2025, 90% of the IT market in Russia will be occupied by domestic companies

Over the next two to three years, Russian IT about 10% of foreign companies will remain on the market, and the remaining 90% will be occupied by domestic players who will begin to enter the international market by 2025, the CEO said on October 23, 2023 IVA Technologies Stanislav Iodkovsky

By 2025, we will become cramped in our market, it will physically end, and we will have to develop export expansion, the expert says.

Controlling the share of the domestic market at 90% is quite realistic in the future until 2030, says Mikhail Khachaturian, associate professor of the Department of Management and Innovation of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of the Financial University under the Government.

Everything will of course depend on the pace of revival of the domestic, microelectronic industries which is growing at a rate of about 4% in October 2023, he says.

According to him, the most noticeable is the result of import substitution in the field of operating systems, where the share of domestic developments without attracting foreign software is 84%. As for the equipment that is produced in Russia and from Russian components, its share, although it has almost tripled over the past year and a half, has fluctuated in the range of 45-55% in the market as a whole, while the growth trend is very stable.

At the same time, access to other markets is quite possible in the near future, confirms Alexander Timofeev, associate professor of the Department of Informatics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Plekhanov.

An increase in exports is likely, even if not at the expense of the The European market. There are also eastern, the Asian countries and finally, the African markets. Africa Google The Trends service also notes the high interest of countries in our technologies and software, he says.

The Russian IT market is very capacious and promising, and, therefore, Russian companies should be prepared for the fact that manufacturers from friendly countries will also show interest in it, "Khachaturian emphasized.

Experts agree that it will not be easy to enter the foreign market, but nevertheless, Russian players will have a chance to stand on a par with the conditional Huawei and Lenovo in the coming years.

And, probably, it will be more correct to come out with cooperatives, integrated distribution of our IT landscape. If we form an export distributor that will provide friendly strange sales promotion and support for our exports, we will be able to compete with other market players abroad, "said expert Yodkovsky.

He drew attention to the fact that in 2023 the share of domestic IT in Russia exceeded foreign ones for the first time: for example, since 2022, the share of Russian funds for corporate video conferencing (VKS) has grown from 34 to 60%, and foreign ones have decreased from 66% to 40%. According to the IVA Technologies Analytical Center, over the year the volume of the universal corporate communications market in Russia will increase from 25 to 33 billion rubles, and the Russian market for video conferencing tools (VKS) will also grow by a third - from 10 to 13 billion rubles. Mainly due to the growth of domestic developments and supplies. Russian developments are already capable of replacing Cisco, ZOOM, Microsoft Teams, Avaya and other foreign solutions^[7].

Russian companies recovered 4.7 billion rubles from foreign manufacturers of IT solutions who left the Russian Federation

In mid-September 2023, it became known that Russian companies were able to recover more than 4.7 billion rubles through the court from foreign IT suppliers who left the Russian market in the current geopolitical situation.

According to the Vedomosti newspaper, referring to the data of the law firm MEF Legal, a total of 43 lawsuits were considered from February 2022 to September 2023. In most cases, claims are related to the failure to provide services provided for by existing contracts, or to the refusal of foreign manufacturers from the supply of prepaid products. The amount of compensation requested by Russian companies varies from 175 thousand to 1.4 billion rubles. In almost all cases considered, the court sided with the plaintiffs, satisfying their claims in full.

Among the largest proceedings, MEF Legal highlights two lawsuits by the Russian distributor of computer equipment OCS Distrubution (O-Si-es-Center LLC) against Hewlett Packard Enterprise LLC the Russian structure of the American Hewlett Packard Enterprise (). HPE The amount of claims is 1.4 billion and 550 million rubles. At the same time, the integrator LLC "" Talmer requires Dell 778 million rubles from the Russian legal entity of the American manufacturer of computer equipment (Dell LLC Oracle). Claims were filed against Oracle Computer Equipment JSC (a Russian subsidiary) by at least five Russian organizations, including FORCE LLC (in the distribution amount of 431.7 million rubles) and (by LLC "FORCE - Development Center" 111.4 million rubles).

It is emphasized that the 43 cases under consideration do not take into account claims filed from Russian legal entities directly against the integrators and distributors themselves, who acted as intermediaries between foreign manufacturers and end consumers. Against this background, there is a second wave of proceedings in which plaintiffs can file claims for large amounts - for example, for lost profits.^[8]

In Russia, the number of new IT businesses has increased by 17% since the beginning of the year

In January-April 2023, about 1000 new individual entrepreneurs and IT LLCs were registered in Russia, which is 17% more compared to the same period in 2022. Such data are provided in a joint study by Business Environment and Rambler & Co. It was made public at the end of May 2023.

According to TASS with reference to this report, the largest number of entrepreneurs who opened a business in IT in January-April 2023 are in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Krasnodar. The highest share of young entrepreneurs was recorded in the Krasnodar Territory - 59%, while in the capital 57% of businessmen in the IT sphere are over 35 years old.

It is noted that in 2022, the IT direction became the leader in the growth of small businesses. The authors of the study emphasize that most of all in the IT sphere of entrepreneurs is attracted by its popularity, which, in their opinion, will continue for a long time, as well as the niches vacated after the departure of foreign companies. Another factor is Russia's need for high-quality and secure software.

The vast majority of IT companies register men. In 2023, the ratio was 77% male and 23% female

According to Anton Nemkin, a member of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technology and Communications, business interest in launching new projects in the IT industry is an important and positive trend, and the growth in the number of enterprises by 17% is a large-scale indicator. At the same time, he noted that such a trend should not be considered a surprise, since demand gives rise to supply.

Obviously, our camp today especially needs new high-quality digital solutions that will appear quite quickly and will ensure safe work in various sectors of the economy, including key ones, he said.[9]

2022

Reduction of the market volume by 5% to 2.1 trillion rubles - TAdviser

The Russian IT market, according to TAdviser, showed negative dynamics in 2022. Its volume decreased by 5% to 2.1 trillion rubles. The decline was not as severe as expected a year earlier. The departure of foreign companies and, accordingly, the reduction in their income in Russia were partially offset by an increase in the revenue of domestic developers of software and hardware solutions, including in the field of information security, as well as IT insourcers of the largest Russian enterprises.

According to TAdviser, the income of Russian developers of IT products - participants in the TAdviser100 ranking - in 2022 increased by 35%. Information security companies as a whole increased revenues by 20%. Most of all, the increase in revenue is noticeable among IT insourders - about 60%.

The decrease in revenues for Russian IT integrators in 2022, according to TAdviser, averaged about 5%. The reduction in revenue was also recorded among IT distributors - about 25%. Most of all in income lost Russian representative offices of foreign IT companies - on average minus 50% per year.

The results of 2022 for the Russian IT market can be considered positive. We did not record a significant decrease in volume as a whole, and key market segments showed a noticeable plus, - notes the editor-in-chief of TAdviser Alexander Levashov. - For 2023, we predict further serious growth of companies-developers of their own products due to the growing import substitution in all industries. System integrators and distributors who have been able to rebuild partnerships, logistics, marketing and business models will also have to show positive dynamics. In general, we expect that the total volume of the IT market in Russia will increase by 5-15%.

IT market growth by 200 billion rubles to 1.6 trillion rubles - study Cloud.ru

and Provider cloudy AI-technologies Cloud.ru October 12, 2023 shared TAdviser with the results of the study "Panorama IT Russian - of the market. " The material presents a detailed overview of the IT market in the B2B industry, the dynamics of its development since 2019 year, as well as analytics on the level of concentration of segments and the role of leading companies in their development.

According to the study, the IT market in Russia in 2022 grew by 200 billion rubles (17.3%) compared to 2021 and amounted to 1.6 trillion rubles. The share of the IT market in Russia's GDP is approaching 2%, and the indicator in world GDP is 2.9%. Top 500 companies in the industry account for 80% of the entire IT market countries. At the same time, it continues to differ in density and high competitiveness. Average dynamics the growth of top companies in the Russian IT market for the entire study period amounted to 18.3%.

The largest growth rate in 2022 was shown by the cloud segment of the market and computing equipment (servers): Their volume increased by more than 40%. At the same time, each segment of the Russian IT market demonstrates growth of more than 10% over 4 years. More than half of the industry is growing on average by more than 15%.

Cloud.ru analysts also revealed the global trend of the cloud sphere - the expansion of the product pool cloud providers into complementary segments such as SaaS.

The IT industry remains one of the fastest growing in the Russian economy. We managed to develop a special taxonomy of the IT market. As part of the preparation of the study, we interviewed experts who helped to identify important stages in the development of the industry from 2019. As a result, we have a powerful tool for analyzing and decomposing the market, "said Evgeny Kolbin, General Director Cloud.ru.

IT market segment leaders often exhibit a higher growth rate than the entire segment, and market concentration in most areas is increasing. Leading companies have resources on closing existing demand, as well as creating and stimulating it. This is especially true for companies that build sophisticated technology products such as AI and ML services.

As part of the top-down approach, IT market segments were evaluated on the basis of analytical reports for each sub-segment.

Reports on the Russian market were analyzed, as well as research on the global market. The final estimate of each segment is a repeatedly failed figure.

Another approach to segment valuation involves analyzing the revenue of the top 500 companies from ratings, and CNews TAdviser others. When calculating the size of segments, the revenue of multidisciplinary companies less than 2 billion rubles was taken into account in the most relevant segment. The revenue of multidisciplinary companies more than 2 billion rubles was divided between the segments in which these companies are represented.

The top 10 largest IT companies by revenue provide 22% of the market in 2022 and their revenue in 2019-2022 increased faster than the growth of the IT market (22.4% versus 17.3%).

The concentration of the market is quite high, but in most segments it still remains competitive.

Entry barriers remain significant, but in most segments new companies regularly appear and actively grow.

The list of top 10 IT companies in 2019-2022 changed annually. Market restructuring was especially strong in 2022, when dozens of global IT companies left Russia or suspended operations, and the remaining players in the market took their place. And even in the context of the structural transformation of the economy, the volume of the IT market in 2022 increased.

The IT market is growing at a high rate. Segments develop with different dynamics, but almost all show growth rates exceeding 10% during 2019-2022. More than half of the segments grew at an average annual rate of more than 15%.

Among the verticals of the IT market, Software is developing most dynamically with an average annual rate of 21.2% in 2019-2020, but the dynamics of each vertical in this period exceeded 10%.

Top 3 dynamically growing sub-segments - IaaS and PaaS, computing, IT services IoT.

The largest growth rate in 2022 was shown by the cloud segment of the market and computing equipment (servers): their volume increased by more than 40%. Also, the market volume in the segments of the data management system, infrastructure software and operating systems increased significantly - all of them increased by more than 20% in 2022.

Import substitution, which has been a trend of the past few years, took place even more actively in 2022 - this stimulated the high growth of certain segments. Domestic analogues of products of global vendors are developing, competitive and comparable to them in terms of technical characteristics. But there were also segments for which care global companies had a negative impact. For example, in the information security software segment, the decrease in market volume due to the departure of global companies was not compensated by an increase in sales volume of domestic IT companies and the final market dynamics in the segment turned out to be negative. Market Volume Reduction More Than more than 10% recorded in three segments: networks and communications, information security and storage systems.

The full version of the study is here.

The average annual growth rate of the Russian IT market in 2019-2022 is 12% in dollar terms

In 2019-2022, the average annual growth rate of the Russian IT market amounted to 12% in dollar terms. This is significantly higher than the growth rate of the global IT market, which increased by an average of 5% per year. Such data is provided in the Strategy Partners review, published in September 2023.

1 - recalculated at the average annual dollar rate: 2019 - 64.73 rubles, 2020 - 71.94 rubles, 2021 - 73.65 rubles, 2022 - 67.46 rubles; 2 - the CAGR in dollar terms is indicated in parentheses

The fastest growing segment of the Russian IT market was software and IT services: a CAGR of 19.4%.

At the end of 2022, against the background of a sharp decrease in software sales in Russia by foreign vendors, sales of Russian players increased several times: the total revenue of the largest Russian software developers and integrators (the top 100 companies in the industry) increased by more than 28%, while for foreign companies it decreased by an average of 62%. Also in 2022, there was an increase in the cost of individual Russian-made software products (by 10-20%).

In 2021, the market volume reached a record $41.3 billion, or 3.04 trillion rubles. The increase in 2021 is approximately 20%. The market decline in 2022 amounted to no more than 10%, which was associated with the events after February 24 - the restriction of the supply of foreign software and equipment, the increased level of uncertainty.

It is expected that in the next seven years the Russian IT market will grow on average by 12% per year and by 2030 will reach 7 trillion rubles. The segment of software and IT services, in turn, by this time will increase by more than 2.5 times and amount to 2.8 trillion rubles. The departure of most foreign vendors from the Russian market, the accelerated process of transition to import-independent solutions, state support, digital transformation of all sectors of the economy and an increase in information security requirements by regulators will become key drivers of further growth.

A full review of Strategy Partners is available at.

Chernyshenko: Revenues of Russian IT companies increased by 35.3% to 2.38 trillion rubles

At rubles the end of 2022, Russian IT companies earned 2.38 trillion in revenue, which is 35.3%, or 615.5 billion rubles, more than a year earlier. The Deputy Prime Minister RUSSIAN FEDERATION Dmitry Chernyshenko cited such data on February 21, 2023.

According to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, the average salary of IT specialists in Russia in 2022 increased by 16.4% (by about 17.5 thousand rubles) compared to the previous year and amounted to 124.3 thousand rubles. Chernyshenko also said that tax revenues from IT companies in 2022 increased by more than 27% (by 104.8 billion rubles), to 489.1 billion rubles.

The President [during his message to the Federal Assembly on February 21, 2023 - approx. TAdviser] drew attention to the effectiveness of the IT support measure and announced the decision to extend them to high-tech industries. Such measures have become a factor in the growth of the ICT sector, the development of domestic digital products, an increase in the number of IT companies, - concluded the Deputy Prime Minister (quoted by TASS).

According to Chernyshenko, the drivers of economic growth in 2023 should be independence from foreign solutions, information security of data and digital development of the regions. As part of the digital transformation strategy, the government will continue to expand the list and improve the quality of public services, strengthen the efficiency and security of information systems, prepare new qualified personnel for the digital environment, which are in short  supply, he said.

In 2023, the Gostech platform will become a landmark project for the further development of state IT services. "By the end of 2024, we will transfer all federal information systems to it, and by the end of 2025, all regional ones," he said in an interview with CNews in January 2023.^[10]

Why Russia's IT market grew despite sanctions - HSE

The turnover of IT companies in Russia increased in 2022 compared to 2021 by 22%, although during the year there was a slight slowdown in dynamics. This is evidenced by the data of a study conducted by ISIEZ HSE, published in December 2023. The volume of investments of large and medium-sized organizations in software (including the purchase of licenses, custom development of IT systems), characterizing the demand of business and the public sector, also increased by more than a third in 2022.

According to the researchers, in assessing the consequences of sanctions and a corporate boycott by the United States and its satellites, it should be borne in mind that the consumption of foreign corporate software in Russia included not only direct imports, but also a comparable amount of services for implementation consulting, system integration, support, support, etc., which were already mainly Russian (from the point of view of residency) companies. The scale of such services can be estimated at 300-400 billion rubles. per year (which is comparable to direct imports), of which an estimated 70-100 billion rubles. accounted for subsidiaries of foreign vendors in Russia, and the bulk - for authorized Russian partners. Thus, a significant amount of related services in Russia was tied to foreign software. In addition, the bulk of custom development was also conducted on a foreign technology stack. Therefore, against the background of stopping the purchase of licenses for foreign software, curtailing projects for its implementation, disconnecting from global IT services, a serious decline in the Russian IT industry could be expected.

Experts highlight several reasons why, despite these restrictions, the turnover of IT companies in Russia has grown. Firstly, despite the liquidation, reorganization, change of owners and (or) top management in former subsidiaries of legal entities or representative offices of Western software vendors, the staff of these companies mainly continues to work either within the framework of previous (or transformed) legal entities, or in other Russian IT companies or IT divisions of industry customers. Thus, the core of expertise in relation to foreign IT products has been preserved.

Secondly, the structure of demand for IT services has changed - the decline in one direction was offset by growth in others. Although new purchases and work on the implementation of foreign IT solutions were practically stopped (in addition to residual contracts with licenses purchased before February-March 2022), the need to support the operability, development and maintenance of existing IT systems based on imported software by Russian IT specialists increased in parallel (including in conditions of inability to get vendor support). The scale of custom development of customized solutions for tasks has grown, for which there are no ready-made products or updates from the vendor.

It is also important to note that the software for most customers was deployed locally, with the purchase of urgent or perpetual licenses, which allowed its continued use, despite the policies of the parent company (Corporate software in the form of SaaS, access to which was terminated in the first place, was not very popular with large Russian customers, especially in the case of critical systems such as ERP and DBMS).

Thirdly, the volume of sales and implementations of domestic software of high market maturity, including licensed software, has increased; the peak demand was observed in March 2022 (it was also accompanied by an increase in prices). In 2022, sales of products from the Register of Domestic Software to end customers (in terms of licenses and SaaS exempted from VAT) increased by 13% compared to 2021. Among the market segments where Russian solutions are most in demand (in particular, based on open source) are office software, OS , DBMS, video conferencing systems ( VKS ), cybersecurity tools . Many customers began to switch to the Russian cloud infrastructure, which made a significant contribution to the revenue of domestic IaaS suppliers.

The growth of the IT industry was influenced not only by corporate demand for software and IT services, the segment of Internet companies and digital platforms, social networks (including in Yandex, VK ecosystems), which in 2022, against the background of the closure of access to foreign platforms, increased the audience and increased monetization.

The impact of sanctions restrictions and the departure of foreign players on the Russian software and IT services market turned out to be much milder than it could be, precisely due to the specifics of the software as an "intangible" product. This, in particular, allows it to be used for a long time after installation. In addition, the supply of competencies in the labor market in Russia turned out to be sufficient to support and support locally deployed foreign IT products.

Ministry of Digital Development: Losses of foreign IT companies that left the Russian market amounted to 650-700 billion rubles

Foreign IT companies that left Russia lost about 650-700 billion rubles due to the curtailment of their business in the Russian Federation. This was announced on December 20, 2022 by the Minister of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media Maksut Shadayev, speaking during the government hour in the State Duma.

According to him, these companies made the decision to leave with the loss of revenue on their own. Shadayev assured that the Russian Federation will work with those countries that are ready for cooperation and joint projects.

There are a lot of such countries. We now see a big request from the countries of Latin America, the Middle East, Asia for Russian technologies, for joint projects, - said the head of the Ministry of Digital Development of the Russian Federation, adding that we are not talking about isolation, and Russia will find opportunities for cooperation on the basis of honest partnership.

Experts from the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) estimated the losses of foreign business in 2022 from curtailing activities in Russia and decisions to leave the country at $200-240 billion. From $70 billion to $90 billion in losses falls on foreign companies that decide to leave Russia.

As of the beginning of September 2022, according to CSR estimates, 34% of the largest foreign companies operating in Russia limited their activities in the country, 15% decided to leave it through the transfer to the new owner of the Russian division and 7% announced their complete departure from the domestic market without selling business. In June, only 5% of the largest companies announced their departure from Russia in one way or another.

According to the calculations of the CSR, the largest losses in value terms were incurred by business from the [[|United States]] (the largest companies lost $102 billion in Russia), Britain (losses - $78 billion) and Germany ($51 billion). The departure of companies from Russia had the greatest impact on the economies of Finland (minus 2% of GDP), Sweden (minus 1.5%), Britain (minus 1.3%) and Denmark (minus 1%).^[11]

Revenue of the largest Russian IT companies soared by 60% in the 1st half of the year

The revenue of the largest Russian IT companies in the first half of 2022 increased by 58.5% compared to the same period in 2021. This is evidenced by the data of the analytical agency CNews Analytics, released at the end of August 2022.

In their calculations, experts included data on the revenue of 22 players in the IT market of the Russian Federation, who were included in the list of the 100 largest Russian IT companies (CNews100) in 2021. The best results in the first half of 2022 were shown by IT service providers - their revenues almost doubled. As for specific players, the group "T1" (revenue growth by 151.7%) and "Maxima Telecom" (+ 92.2%) showed the strongest dynamics.

At the same time, for some other companies, the first half of the year was not entirely successful. Thus, the revenue of RDTech in January-June 2022 decreased by 55.3% compared to a year ago, for Integro Technologies it fell by 38.1%, for Innodat - by 28.8%.

According to CNews, despite difficulties with the supply of computing equipment and components for its production, the revenue of companies engaged in the production and distribution of hardware in the first half of 2022 increased by 42.1% year-on-year. The leaders are the Yaroslavl company Cinto (an increase of 178.1%) and Marvel Distribution (42.8%).

According to the study, the revenue ON of developers and distributors in the first half of 2022 rose by 21.6% on an annualized basis. Here he achieved the most significant successes (Simbirsoft an increase of 63.4%). The company explains this by its own professionalism and predicts revenue growth by the end of 2022 in about the same volumes. Companies in the ranking of CNews100 positions from 11 to 50 showed revenue growth of 37.3%.^[12]

TAdviser predicts a contraction in the Russian IT market. 2 development scenarios

At the end of 2021, the Russian IT market showed positive dynamics. According to TAdviser, the growth was 20%, and the volume reached 2.22 trillion rubles. The main drivers of growth were factors associated with the pandemic - mass digitalization of companies and reorientation to a hybrid format of work, an increase in demand for solutions in the field of information security. The demand for domestic IT solutions has also noticeably increased.

For 2022, TAdviser is considering two development scenarios. They take into account the departure of a large part of Western players and the partial suspension of the activities of eastern partners related to both the violation of supply chains and fears of secondary sanctions. In addition, both options imply a significant increase in the revenue of Russian software developers and information security companies. As part of the optimistic scenario, near-zero dynamics of universal system integrators and a partial decrease in revenue of IT distributors are predicted. In this case, the decline in market volume will not exceed 10%. The pessimistic scenario takes into account a more significant decrease in the performance of IT distributors and integrators. This option assumes that the fall in market volume may exceed 20%.

Key Drivers of Market Size Decline

• Sanctions and disruption of supply chains
• Departure and suspension of foreign IT companies
• Difficult economic situation

The main factor now is the imposed sanctions, the suspension of the activities of most Western vendors, including those that do not have similar Russian analogues. The second is the economic situation as a whole, and the ability of some companies to solve only urgent tactical tasks.

Key Market Growth Drivers

• Rapid growth of import substitution projects, including by private companies and corporations
• Increased demand for information security
• Government support for the IT market

The departure of foreign vendors, as well as the associated difficulties with the use of foreign software, familiar services and equipment, put the business before the need for rapid import substitution. The growth will be facilitated by the increased demand for information security of enterprises, including through the replacement of foreign information security products, the share of which, according to expert estimates, reached 50% of the total information security market in Russia.

{{quote 'Which of the scenarios is being implemented will depend on how quickly the state and business can launch large import substitution projects, - notes the editor-in-chief of TAdviserAlexander Levashov. - Of course, the financial capabilities of customer companies and the determination of managers will play a significant role here. But IT developers should also take steps to meet customers: strengthen teams, increase investments in product development and marketing, and distributors and integrators - establish logistics and support for domestic products. }}

What market participants say

President of the League of Digital Economics Sergei Shilov expects a decrease in market volume in 2022.

This is facilitated by difficulties with the purchase of foreign equipment and software, as well as crisis phenomena in some sectors of the economy. However, the directions of domestic services and products will grow. IT services are expected to grow significantly. Due to the impossibility of purchasing large volumes of foreign hardware and software, customers will redirect budgets to project work - the development and implementation of solutions based on free software or domestic products, he says.

Alexander Goltsov, CEO of AMT-Group, notes that a significant share in the total IT market has always been occupied by the supply of equipment and components, which are currently practically stopped or suspended.

It is impossible to replace the full volume of Russian equipment in a short time. At the end of 2022, we will most likely see an increase in sales of domestic equipment and software. But how big it will be is difficult to say, "Goltsov notes.

Deputy General Director for Business Development, Director of the Department of Infrastructure Solutions and Services of the IT company KrokValentin Gubarev, believes that now you can already forget about the recovery trend after COVID. This year, the suspension of most Western vendors, as well as budget cuts in a number of industries, have a strong impact on the Russian market.

Many previously planned projects simply cannot be completed, redesign is required on solutions that are now available to the market. I think that by the end of 2022 the market expects a decline. How dramatic it will be, and how difficult recovery will be, depends on a huge number of factors that cannot be accurately predicted, and are not necessary. You need to be at the moment, respond to the hot needs of customers, implement them based on your competencies, your experience, - he believes.

At the same time, the Russian IT market will greatly rebalance and some of the directions will benefit from this, adds the CROC expert.

The departure of Western vendors makes it possible for local partners to provide technical support based on their expertise, and for Russian equipment and software manufacturers to dramatically increase their capacity. There has been an increase in distrust of foreign clouds, which can turn off access to your data at any time, which is also an opportunity for Russian cloud providers. The task of replacement in the coming years will be one of the key. The entire IT market will have to be greatly rebuilt, - notes Valentin Gubarev.

The growth will be facilitated by the increased demand for information security of enterprises, including through the replacement of foreign information security products, the share of which, according to expert estimates, reached 50% of the total information security market in Russia. In addition, experts notice steps towards real practical cybersecurity

One of these factors may be the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 01.05.2022 No. 250 "On Additional Measures to Ensure Information Security of the Russian Federation." Now companies (authorities, state corporations, strategic enterprises, subjects of critical information infrastructure) should have deputy CEOs responsible for incidents occurring in the infrastructure of organizations. In general, this is a turn towards practical information security. Messages about the importance of the topic of cybersecurity are broadcast at the state level: measures to support the industry are announced, the President devotes separate meetings related exclusively to the topic of cybersecurity. And all this, because information security comes to the fore when the infrastructure of the Russian Federation, in fact, has become a legitimate target for bad influences in quotes, "says Maxim Filippov, director of business development at Positive Technologies.

Forecasts were announced by TAdviser in June 2022 as part of the publication of the rating of the largest IT companies in Russia TAdviser100.

IDC predicts a 39% drop in the Russian IT market in dollars

The volume of the Russian IT market in 2022 will decrease by $12.1 billion, or 39%, compared to 2021 and will amount to $19.1 billion. This forecast was announced by IDC analysts in April 2022. According to their preliminary estimates, IT costs in the Russian Federation at the end of 2021 were measured at $31.2 billion. Previously, the company was mistaken many times with forecasts of IT sales in Russia and often revised its estimates.

According to experts, the main reason for the strong decline in the Russian IT industry will be Western sanctions, which were introduced in response to a special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. IT executives interviewed by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) say that sanctions will lead to a shortage of technology equipment, and as for software, replacing foreign products with local alternatives or open source solutions will not be easy.

The IDC notes that back in 2017, the Russian government ordered most state-owned companies to begin replacing foreign software with domestic software, but by February 2022, when the Russian special operation began, many of these organizations were still heavily dependent on foreign software.

Vice President of IDC in Russia and SNGRobert Farish believes that sales of IT equipment in Russia in 2022 will decrease largely due to supply problems. If the ruble weakens, the situation will worsen, since imported equipment will rise in price even more, which will put additional negative pressure on demand for it, the expert said.

According to him, the situation around Ukraine undermined the Russian IT equipment market and led to the departure of large foreign component manufacturers like AMD and Intel, which stopped the supply of products to Russian manufacturers. The latter have actually stopped producing "a lot" since the beginning of March 2022, added Farish, whose words are quoted in the WSJ publication of April 8, 2022.

Karen Ghazaryan, chief analyst of the Russian Association of Electronic Communications (RAEC), noted that there are manufacturers of IT equipment in the Russian Federation, but their ability to manufacture devices is limited due to problems with global supply chains.

Vice-President of the St. Petersburg Club of Chief information officers SPbCIOClub Ivan Kozlov believes that large Russian companies will have enough equipment stocks for about eight months, and "then let's see how it goes."

According to Robert Farish, software products have already been created in Russia that are similar in function to Western solutions: for example, MyOffice can replace Microsoft 365, and 1C has a number of functions that are in SAP software. However, Russian developments will not be able to cover all thousands of niches that cover the global software industry, the IDC analyst added.

The research company estimates the share of Microsoft and Amazon in the Russian cloud services market at 17% and 14%, respectively. Both vendors stopped working in the Russian Federation by April 8, 2022.

Market participants interviewed by WSJ reported that Russian companies have already begun to actively switch to domestic software products. So, some instead of Google Cloud began to use cloud solutions of Yandex and VK. Oleg Aksenov, who previously worked as the technical director of one of the divisions of Sberbank, noted that the credit institution has its own cloud infrastructure - SberCloud. In addition, according to Aksenov, Russian companies are increasingly willing to introduce software with open source sources.^[13]

2021

Russian IT market grew by 20% - TAdviser

At the end of 2021, the Russian IT market showed positive dynamics. According to TAdviser, announced in June 2022, the market growth was 20%, and its volume reached 2.22 trillion rubles. The main drivers of growth were factors associated with the pandemic - mass digitalization of companies and reorientation to a hybrid format of work, an increase in demand for solutions in the field of information security. The demand for domestic IT solutions has also noticeably increased. Read more here.

HSE calculated the costs of industries for digitalization

At the end of December 2021, the Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics published a study in which it reflected the costs of various industries for the introduction and use of information technologies for the whole of 2020 and the first half of 2021.

The largest costs fell on the financial sector - 491.1 billion, rubles which corresponds to 19.9% of the total spending on digitalization of sectors of the economy and social sphere. The second place was taken by the manufacturing industry with indicators of 226.7 billion rubles and 9.2%, respectively, the third - by organizations of the sphere transport and logistics (199.8 billion rubles; 8,1%). Next comes the sphere of wholesale and retail trade, where investments in digital technologies are estimated at 154 billion rubles, or 6.2% of the total. The share of the four indicated industries in the total costs of digitalization in all sectors of the economy and social sphere is 43%.

According to the report, the main digital technologies in the nine named industries are cloud services (used by 25.7% of companies) and technology big data (22.4%). The least common (with the exception of) financial sector technology (artificial intelligence 5.4% of companies), transmits "."Kommersant

Pavel Rudnik, Deputy Director of ISIEZ, noted that in many respects the differences in the introduction of digital technologies are explained by the difficulties of restructuring internal business processes in "conservative" industries: they have been building for a long time and changes require more time and financial resources.

Despite this, the dynamics of the spread of digital technologies, as a rule, is ahead of the speed of transformation of the regulatory legal framework, he said.

In his opinion, the government, on the one hand, needs to create transparent and stable rules of the game and reduce potential risks for users of new technologies, on the other hand, to ensure the flexibility of regulation.^[14]

2020

In 2020, the Russian IT market grew faster than before the pandemic. Top numbers

The Russian IT market in 2020 grew by 14%, to 1.833 trillion rubles. This assessment in April 2021 at an online meeting with the press was voiced by IDC Russia Vice President Robert Farish, who emphasized that these are preliminary. Based on the estimates given, the growth of the Russian IT market was even higher than in 2019: then it amounted to 8.8%.

The IT market in IDC includes IT equipment, software and IT services. And telecom services are not included in the estimates.

In dollars, Robert Farish estimated the increase in the volume of the Russian IT market at 2%, but in absolute terms, the indicator did not lead to IDC. However, earlier the same analytical company estimated the IT market in dollars for 2019 - about $24.18 billion.

Dollar results came out much better compared to the gloomy picture that IDC painted a year ago, at the end of April 2020: then analysts predicted a drop of about 30%. The forecast was based on the prospect of a 3-6% decline in GDP, subject to a stable ruble exchange rate. In fact, GDP in 2020 decreased by 3.1%, according to Rosstat data for February 2021, and the ruble exchange rate turned out to be very unstable, unless its constant decline is considered stable.

However, as the situation with the pandemic develops during 2020, IDC has already adjusted the initial forecast towards improvement. And now, for 2021, analysts look with moderate optimism, although a year earlier, expecting the market to fall, predicted an unspeakable recovery.

Robert Farish, at a meeting with reporters, warned that the new data he shared may not coincide with what IDC voiced and predicted earlier, including precisely due to changes in exchange rates.

As of mid-April 2021, IDC has not yet provided an estimate of the global IT market. However, this has already been done by one of their main competitors - Gartner^[15]. According to them, global IT spending in 2020 decreased by 3.2% mainly due to the fact that Chief information officer prioritized business-critical technologies and services at the initial stages of the pandemic.

The methods of assessing the market at Gartner and IDC may, of course, differ, but in the absence of other estimates from comparable analytical companies, it still looks like the situation in the IT market in Russia turned out to be better than the global average.

IDC Vice President Russia identified two factors that influenced the overall picture in the domestic IT market in 2020. First, the Russian government's spending on digital technology was high throughout the year. This provided a solid foundation for the corporate IT market as a whole. The impact of this factor was especially important in the second quarter, which was hit by a crushing blow from the pandemic.

And no less significant, according to Robert Farish, was the decision to allow most industries to operate more or less without restrictions for most of the year, which had a beneficial effect on the Russian economy, and therefore the Russian IT market. This contrasts strongly with other countries, the Europe analyst says. There and as of the beginning of 2021, more restrictions on business remained, and people were re-sent to "lockdowns."

IDC counted ruble growth in 2020 in all segments of the IT market in Russia. The PC market was especially distinguished - it showed a jump of 31%. The corporate infrastructure market (servers, storage systems and corporate network products), which grew by 27%, was not far behind.

Dmitry Ilyin, senior PC and tablet analyst at IDC Russia, talks about the "triumphant return of PCs to the market." Prior to that, their sales did not shine. The pandemic year showed how important these devices are for productive work, Ilyin noted. And the first quarter of 2021 will surprise even more, says the analyst: according to preliminary IDC estimates, growth in the PC segment will come out more than 50%. But that data as of mid-April is yet to be released.

Mikhail Lebedev, head of the research program in the corporate infrastructure segment of IDC Russia, noted that here the financial and telecom sectors are traditionally the locomotive of growth, as well as a large share of the public sector and state-owned companies. At the same time, in the field of infrastructure, he noted the growing importance and share of the segment of cloud suppliers.

Even more attention than before, many organizations began to pay attention to information security in 2020. Denis Maslennikov, senior information security analyst at IDC Russia, says that in 2020 the architecture and perimeter of information security for a large number of companies has changed due to the transition to remote work. The pandemic contributed to the growth of demand for cloud information security solutions, VPN services, means of protecting user devices, consulting in the field of information security.

By the end of 2021, IDC tentatively expects the dynamics of the IT market in Russia comparable to 2020 in rubles, predicting growth in all key segments. Analysts expect to see the smallest dynamics in the IT infrastructure segment, and there may even be a decrease in servers and DSS. And in dollars, the IT infrastructure segment will decrease by 3%, according to IDC Russia.

Over the past three years, leading investments in infrastructure have been made, Russia explains in IDC. Now it is necessary to deploy business functionality on it. IT programs will be prioritized towards business applications rather than infrastructure.

The number of IT companies in Yakutia has grown nine times in 10 years

For ten years, Yakutia managed to increase the number of IT companies in the republic by nine times. As of April 2021, 324 IT companies were registered in the region, the total revenue of which in 2020 exceeded 2 billion rubles. According to the Minister of Innovation of Yakutia Anatoly Semenov, such a breakthrough was successful thanks to the comprehensive infrastructure for supporting innovations and the initiatives implemented, the press service of the Government of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) reported on April 8, 2021.

The region hosted high-speed Internet, including in the Arctic regions: 99.3% of Yakuts are provided with the Internet, and the network speed has increased 1,500 times compared to 2010. A full-fledged ecosystem of support for startups at all stages has been created in the republic. Schoolchildren and students offer ideas for IT projects within the framework of competitions and hackathons, which are held regularly with the support of the SVFU and the Yakutia technopark. Since 2019, 96 IT classes have been created in the region, 13 children's technology parks have been opened.

Also in 2019, the B8 accelerator was launched. It helps startups to pack the product at the pre-sowing stage, build a financial model and provides primary investments in the amount of 1.65 million rubles. "B8" for 2 years released 44 projects, 33 projects received investments. The republic has its own technopark "Yakutia" and IT park "Yakutsk." As of April 2021, 167 residents work here, whose revenue in 2020 exceeded 1 billion rubles.

We are trying to create all the conditions so that as many "unicorns" as possible appear in Yakutia - companies with a capitalization of over $1 billion, which would provide our remote region with digital products and compete in the open market. This will allow us to improve the quality of life within the republic, as well as increase the level of well-being of the population, - the Minister of Innovation, Digital Development and Infocommunication Technologies of Yakutia Anatoly Semenov is convinced.

Yakutia is among the top 10 regions Russia in terms of to export IT services and provides 85% of exports of IT services to the Far East.

Dynamics of IT costs in the Russian Federation turned out to be close to zero - IDC

The Russian IT market in 2020 did not fall contrary to expectations. This was announced on February 12, 2021 by the vice-president of IDC in Russia and SNGRobert Farish.

According to him, the dynamics of spending on information technologies in the Russian Federation at the end of 2020 turned out to be close to zero (in dollar terms). The expert noted that the conclusion was made on the basis of data from integrators and large software suppliers.

No one had a fall at the end of the year, but we are still waiting for data from smaller companies, - said the top manager.

Kommersant recalls that in the spring IDC expected a fall in the Russian IT market by 30% (in dollars) by the end of 2020, and in the fall the forecast was adjusted to -8%.

Robert Farish noted that in Russia, in comparison with Europe, the situation in the IT sphere turned out to be better and the lockdown did less harm. In Europe, customers have reduced information technology costs by focusing on digital projects with short-term returns on investment, he added.

Many experts interviewed by the publication agreed with the conclusions of the IDC. According to the general director of the system integrator Step Logic Anton Prokofiev, the results of 2020 were slightly worse than expected at the beginning of 2020, but much better than predicted during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Revenue growth, he said, was 4%.

According to estimates ABBYY and, PwC 94% of Russian companies in 2020 did not reduce their IT costs, but many changed their priorities. ABBYY CEO in Russia Dmitry Shushkin explained to the newspaper that in 2020, the growth of spending on projects with a long implementation cycle slowed down, but the demand for ready-made solutions, for example, in parts, increased. information security

Natalia Agafonova, head of New Communication Technologies JSC (developer of P7-Office), noted that state customers in 2020 were cutting IT budgets due to the pandemic.^[16]

Updated IDC forecast: the volume of the Russian IT market will decrease by 8.2%

As it became known on November 10, 2020, IDC clarified its forecast of the prospects for the development of the domestic IT market in October, replacing it with a less pessimistic one. If at one time the analytical company assumed that by the end of 2020 the fall in the Russian IT market (including the supply of IT and telecom equipment, as well as software and IT services) could exceed 30% in dollar terms (compared to 2019), now it believes that the total volume of this market will decrease by only 8.2%.

At the same time, according to analysts, cloud services are one of the most dynamic areas of development of the Russian IT market. And the transition to digital formats and tightening labor efficiency requirements force organizations and enterprises to more actively automate business processes.

IDC experts also noted that in the modern world, business processes are rapidly becoming obsolete, hence the need to accelerate the development of enterprise applications. Among other things, IDC data shows that COVID-19 has served as an accelerator for segments of the cloud services market such as IaaS and PaaS.^[17]

Russia accounted for 3% of IT companies founded in developing countries since 2014.

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, released in November 2020, Russia accounted for 3% of the total number of IT companies founded in developing countries since 2014.

As Kommersant writes with reference to the BCG Tech Challengers report, experts included in the hundred leading technology companies in developing countries:

• Yandex;
• Mail.ru Group;
• Wildberries;
• Playrix;
• 1C;
• Tinkoff Bank.

The study says that the average revenue of these companies is $1.8 billion per year. In terms of growth, they overtake even tech companies from the S&P 500 index. At the same time, the average capitalization of the Russian company from this list is $5.2 billion, which is slightly lower than that of other contenders for leadership in the technology sector in other emerging markets. In addition, Russian companies pay more attention to emerging markets and their own domestic market.

Previously, companies from China became the leaders in the technology sector of emerging markets. Now the geography of leadership has become more diverse: successful companies of a new generation come from Africa, Asia, Israel, Latin America, Russia, Turkey and the UAE. Since 2014, more than 10 thousand technology companies have been founded in emerging markets, 47% of them outside the PRC, experts say.

According to Alexander Chachava from Leta Capital, Russian companies that enter global markets fall out of statistics. They sign up in other jurisdictions to make it easier to look for clients.

If we start from the fact that the share of the Russian venture capital market amounted to 0.3% of the world, then the three percent contribution of Russian companies to the number of new over the past six years is a "good figure," says Aleksei Solovyov, founder of A. Partners. The market has actually existed for only about ten years, which is not enough for a large number of notable companies to appear, but the situation will change, he said.^[18]

The Russian IT services market was predicted to fall by 25%, the software market - by 20% in dollars

On June 4, the analytical company IDC presented an updated forecast for the dynamics of the Russian IT market for 2020. Analysts expect its fall to be about 35% in dollar terms. This forecast turned out to be somewhat more negative than presented at the end of April. Then IDCs were tentatively focused on a figure of 30%.

The company calculated the updated forecast based on the scenario that in 2020 the cost of one American dollar will average 78 rubles, and a barrel of Brent crude will be traded for $40. Analysts also took into account the expected factors that the restrictions adopted in connection with the pandemic in Moscow will begin to weaken selectively from mid-June, and the Russian state will have enough resources to maintain the normal functioning of the economy in a crisis.

When calculating IDC takes into account two economic indicators - business activity indices (PMI) in the sectors of industrial production and services, as well as Rosstat data on cargo transportation. According to IHS Markit, in April the production PMI in Russia was at 31 points, while the minimum acceptable level was 50 points. IDC Vice President for Russia and the CIS Robert Farish noted that this is an unprecedented drop. This figure collapsed even lower than in 2009.

The PMI for services fell to about 12 points, and this, as you can see on the chart, is also a record drop. And cargo transportation, according to the latest data from Rosstat, decreased in April by 6% year-on-year, and in 4 months the decrease was 4.3%.

Regarding forecasts for different segments of the IT market, Robert Farish clarified to TAdviser that in the service segment, in particular, a drop of about 25% is expected in 2020. Analysts believe that in the 1st and 2nd quarters, companies were still in a more or less normal form, implementing projects that began in 2019 or in the 1st quarter of 2020. So far, they are using this groundwork.

And the second half of the year for companies providing IT services will be quite difficult. And it is difficult to make forecasts here, but we are looking at the second half of the year rather pessimistic, taking into account that it is now difficult to generate pipeline new projects, "explained Robert Farish, answering a TAdviser question.

At the same time, a special emphasis will be placed on IT costs in the public sector, the IDC representative added. In this regard, those who supply IT services to state customers will feel better against the background of players who rely on the commercial sector.

In the software segment, IDC expects a drop of about 20%, maybe a little less, Robert Farish told TAdviser.

It is unlikely that many organizations in the corporate sector will forgo long-term software contracts. This is not typical for how companies usually use software, unless they are experiencing really serious business problems. The software market will contract, including under the influence of a decrease in the value of the ruble, but the fall will not be less than in the service segment, says IDC vice president for Russia and the CIS.

In the hardware segment, Robert Farish expressed less certainty. IDC believes that in the large corporate segment, infrastructure projects are likely to continue, and medium and small businesses (SMB) will all depend on how many of these businesses themselves will remain alive by the end of the year. It can be expected that their number will change significantly.

The great difference between Russia and many European countries is that the country seems to have less direct state support for medium and small businesses and consumers. This will also affect the results of the second half of the year, - said Robert Farish in a conversation with TAdviser.

According to the results of the 1st quarter of 2020, IDC has already counted a drop in a number of product segments in Russia. Thus, sales of mobile phones decreased by 8% in dollars, servers - by 12%, while at the end of autumn 2019 the company predicted an increase in sales of mobile phones by 1 for the 5.3% quarter, and a decrease in the server segment by only 0.2%.

IDC expects a major decline in the IT market in 2020 after its moderate growth at the end of 2019. Then the market grew by 3.9%, to about $25 billion, and the growth was demonstrated by the software segment, services, and hardware solutions. Robert Farish noted that past crises have provided enough information to draw certain conclusions and forecasts now.

For example, in 2008-2009. the cost of a barrel of Brent oil fell by 48%, in 2014-2015. by 32%. The ruble in 2008-2009 fell by 22%, in 2014-2015. - by 37%. The country's GDP in past crises fell by 7.8% and 2.8%, respectively. At the same time, the volume of the Russian IT market in 2008-2009 decreased by 32%, in 2014-2015 - by 38%.

One of the differences between the current crisis and the previous ones is that different sectors of the economy will feel differently against its background, said Robert Farish. IDC analysts predict that the highest growth or recovery rates through 2023 will be in healthcare, education, professional services, media, banking and telecom industries. The turnover of organizations from these industries by 2023 will be higher than in 2019.

The IT market, transport, retail, production at IDC is promised a 90% recovery by 2023. Analysts believe that the number of state projects will increase, while the share of independent system integrators will decrease.

A number of industries will be less lucky, according to IDC. Construction and insurance businesses, wholesale, resource and processing industries, investment, security services, personal and consumer services will recover by less than 90%.

IDC expects market to fall 30% in currency

The volume of the Russian IT market by the end of 2020 may fall by more than 30%, said Robert Farish, vice president of IDC research company in Russia and the CIS (forecast announced at the end of April 2020). According to him, the forecast is based on the expectation of a fall in Russia's GDP by 3-6% in 2020, subject to a stable ruble exchange rate.

Farish says that the situation in mid-April 2020 could be compared with 2015, when the decline was 37.3%. However, the statistics of the decrease in cargo transportation indicate a more serious fall in the market.

The majority of market participants surveyed by Kommersant agree with IDC estimates. Most likely, the Russian IT market will sink by 15-40% in dollar terms, said Dmitry Pudov, deputy general director of the Angara group of companies. After the crisis of 2015, the market practically retained its volume in rubles, although it halved in dollars, rebuilt and returned to growth, but now the situation is radically different, he argues, "the market does not just have to accept a new coordinate system, it has yet to find out under what conditions it will have to work in the future." This means that you should not wait for a quick return to the growth trajectory, summarizes Mr. Pudov.

Anton Pavlenko, head of the directorate of computing complexes, service and outsourcing of Jet Infosystems, compared the situation on the market with dominoes: some industries suffer and others pull along. This especially affects the IT industry, which works according to the service model, providing services for companies in various sectors, he added.

IDC also expects the IT market to face a targeted, albeit complex, recovery in 2021. At the same time, prices for mobile Internet will rise, and many employees will work from home, says Robert Farish.^[19]

Q1: Negative dynamics of sales volume

In 2020, according to the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics, the trend towards a decrease in the growth rate of the IT industry in Russia continued and was aggravated by the crisis phenomena associated with the coronavirus pandemic. According to Rosstat operational data for June 2020, the dynamics of the volume of sold products of the industry in January - March 2020 is significantly lower than a year earlier - 92% compared to January - March 2019 (in actual prices) against 120% in the first quarter of 2019 to the corresponding period of 2018.

According to HSE estimates, in the absence of tax incentives and with a significant drop in demand for ICT goods and services from the sectors of the economy affected by the crisis in 2020, the industry will be able to return to the level of 2019 in terms of share in GDP and number of employees no earlier than 2024. Savings on investments in the industry during the crisis will affect the competitiveness of Russian ICT goods and services in the domestic and foreign markets. However, tax stimulus measures can help restore the IT industry, ensure its further growth and the continuation of digitalization of sectors of the Russian economy.^[20]

2019

The volume of sold products of the industry's own production reached 1191 billion rubles

On June 11, 2020, the Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics (ISIEZ) of the Higher School of Economics presented estimates of the dynamics and prospects for the development of the IT industry. Its significance in the context of forced restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, said Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting on the development of ICT and communications held on June 10, 2020. Taking into account the discussion, a comprehensive industry support plan will be prepared aimed at creating globally competitive conditions for the work of IT specialists and businesses in Russia.

The volume of sold products of the industry's own production in 2019 reached 1191 billion rubles. In its structure, more than half fall on the results of computer software development activities, a third - on data processing and the provision of information placement services, about 14% - on advisory activities and work related to computer systems.

As noted in the IIEZ, for the period from 2010 to 2019. the gross added value of the IT industry more than doubled - to 945 billion rubles. Russian IT service manufacturers have strengthened their position in the foreign market: the export of computer services during the period under review has tripled. In recent years, exports began to exceed imports: in 2017 by 1%, in 2018 - 15%, in 2019 - 25%. The main consumers of these services are the United States (in 2018, $1310 million, which is a third of all Russian exports of computer services).

The largest IT companies in Russia. Ranking TAdviser100

• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2020

Market growth of 7.01% to $24.18 billion

The volume of the Russian information technology market in 2019 amounted to $24.18 billion, which is 7.01% more than a year earlier. This is evidenced by data from IDC analysts.

Later, judging by the presentation of the head of IDC in Russia Robert Farish in June 2020, the company again revised its data upward - to almost $25 billion, while lowering its estimate of growth rates.

In their opinion, IT spending in Russia in 2020 will be reduced to $17.81 billion, and in 2021 the market will add 17.9% and reach $20.95 billion. Thus, IDC forecasts show that the recovery of the Russian IT market to "pre-coronavirus" volumes will not happen until 2022.

We predict the recovery process until at least 2021, "Yana Frolova, marketing manager at IDC Russia, told ComNews.

The publication also cites the following data from Alena Fomina, Director General of the Rostec Information and Analytical Center of the Central Research Institute of Electronics: in 2019, the main growth in added value in the IT market was concentrated in software and services (22^[21]

Bogdan Kotovelea, consultant for IT market analysis in Central and Eastern Europe, said that the volume of the Russian IT services market in 2019 amounted to 413.7 billion rubles.

The analytical company Pierre Audoin Consultants (RAS), part of the French Teknowlogy Group, believes that the software market in Russia in 2020 with an optimistic development of events will amount to 240.3 billion rubles, and with a pessimistic one - only 215.3 billion rubles. The adjusted forecast of ASD for the IT services market in the Russian Federation for the current year is 403.5 billion rubles and 361.4 billion rubles, respectively.

The publication notes that the total of software and IT services in Russia at the end of 2020 in ruble terms will, at best, decrease by 0.8%, and at worst, it will drop by 11% compared to the results of 2019. According to the "pre-coronavirus" forecast of ASD, this market was supposed to grow by 8%. In dollars, the Russian market for software and IT services will decrease from $10.04 billion in 2019 to $8.89 billion/$ 7.97 billion in an optimistic/pessimistic scenario (that is, it will decrease by 11.4 %/20.6%).

2018

The volume of the IT market in Russia for the first time since 2012 increased in rubles by 18.7%

On August 2, 2019, it became known that the volume of the Russian IT market in rubles in 2018 increased by 18.7%, and if inflation is taken into account, then by 13.8%. According to the RUSSOFT bi-currency index, at the end of 2018, the Russian IT market increased by 10%. This increase was more than in 2017 (+ 9.5%) and exceeded the forecast a year ago (+ 7.5%). The corresponding calculations were made by the RUSSOFT Association as part of its own annual study.

As reported, when using the deflator in calculations, the clear growth of the Russian IT market, measured in rubles, was recorded for the first time since 2012. In 2013-2015, the IT market contracted, and in 2016-2017 its volume remained stable.

It is important to explain that the RUSSOFT Association does not conduct its own research on the IT market, but only analyzes data about it from numerous sources. The sources for this analysis are the ratings of IT companies CNews100 and TAdviser100; research results from IDC, Gartner, ITResearch, J'son & Partners Consulting (Jason & Partners Consulting), iKS-Consulting; data of large domestic software companies that provide estimates of certain segments of the software market; as well as the official results of the work of Russian and foreign IT companies that occupy a leading position in the Russian market.

As part of its annual research, since 2014 RUSSOFT has presented three views on changes in the volume of the Russian IT market:

• The view of global companies and overseas investors targeting dollar metrics (IDC data);
• The view of domestic IT companies that measure their expenses and revenues in rubles (recalculation of IDC dollar indicators into rubles);
• The view of Russian IT buyers who are interested in the received functionality (dual-currency RUSSOFT index).

It is assumed that at the end of 2019, the official level inflations will be 5%, and the average annual rate - dollar 66 rubles.

Most experts and analysts agree that in 2019 the growth of the Russian IT market will continue and will not be very high (moderate). IDC expects a 4.8% increase in the IT market in dollar terms. Reports of sales in the first and second quarters suggest that growth will be slightly higher. The small growth of the entire IT market, according to the IDC forecast, is due to a slowdown in equipment sales growth (+ 3% instead of + 15% at the end of 2018). At the same time, IT services will grow by 8.2%, and software sales - by almost 12%.

RUSSOFT's own annual research allows you to make estimates on the size of the Russian software market based on data on sales of domestic software companies in the domestic market. Taking into account the fact that foreign software suppliers account for at least $2 billion of sales in the Russian market (several large foreign companies have announced sales in Russia in recent years), according to the Association, the Russian software market in 2018 increased by 10-11%, reaching about $8-9.3 billion (in rubles, taking into account inflation, the increase was about 5.5%). This is significantly more than according to IDC ($3.07 billion with an increase of 2.2% over the year).

Unlike IDC, RUSSOFT also refers to the software market as custom development (Russian developers provided the corresponding services for $2 billion) and SaaS services. If we single out only the "sale, implementation and support of our own software products," then Russian companies earned $2.7 billion from this in Russia, which is also unlikely to fully correspond to the data obtained using the IDC method. Nevertheless, the software market without custom development and SaaS should still be more than $4 billion (it is possible that it even exceeds $5 billion), if sales of foreign software companies in Russia (at least $2 billion) are added to the income of Russian developers.

At the same time, the contrast between the RUSSOFT and IDC data will be incorrect. The fact is that the discrepancy is most likely due to significantly different approaches and methods, which in turn are determined by the tasks. For IDC, these tasks are global (the company is studying the situation in the entire global IT market), it is focused on the needs of global IT companies. At the same time, the goals of Russian companies and the Russian government may be completely different.

The largest IT companies in Russia. Ranking TAdviser100

• Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2019

2017

Share of 0.9% of Russia's GDP. Export of IT services exceeded imports for the first time

The IT industry is the most dynamic segment of the ICT sector and the economy as a whole. At the same time, its share in Russia's GDP at the end of 2017 is small - 0.9%. The industry forms 1.1% of the GVA of the entrepreneurial sector (in Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Great Britain - 3-3.4%).

Positive trends in the development of the industry are evidenced by the growth of its export potential. According to the results of 2017, for the first time in the last 9 years in the foreign trade of computer services, exports, although insignificant (by 0.5%), exceeded imports: export volume - $3417 million. USA, imports - $3398 million. UNITED STATES. Compared to 2016, these indicators increased by 28 and 11%, respectively.

The highest growth rates of sales of own production products are demonstrated by organizations engaged in data processing, provision of information placement services (114% by 2016 at constant prices), computer software development (113%). The results of advisory activities in the field of computer technology increased by 7%, the activities for managing computer equipment did not exceed the level of 2016 (97%).

In the structure of products of its own production of the IT industry, about 45% are occupied by software development and testing services (software), a quarter - by data processing services, information placement.

Imported software dominates the domestic market. In 2017, its share in the costs of organizations in the business sector for the purchase of software products reached more than 70%^[22].

TAdviser: the volume of the Russian market grew by 13%

TAdviser assessed the volume and dynamics of IT budgets of the largest Russian companies and departments, and also analyzed changes in demand for information technologies among domestic customers. The volume of the Russian IT market in 2016, according to TAdviser, amounted to more than 900 billion rubles, and in 2017 increased, according to preliminary estimates, by 13%. Read more in a separate article.

IDC: Sharp growth in foreign currency due to the strengthening of the ruble

According to the analytical company IDC, in 2017, the Russian IT market grew by 17% compared to the previous year and reached $21.8 billion. At the same time, in all main segments there was a rise exceeding 10%. According to the forecast made on the assumption of maintaining the current exchange rate, growth will continue in 2018, but the pace will slow down somewhat. As a result, the IT market will increase by 4% to $22.6 billion.

IDC back in the 2017 report noted signs of a recovery in demand after a prolonged decline and a decrease in sales volumes. According to Robert Farish, vice president of the company in Russia and the CIS, last year's forecast was very accurate in general:

"The fact that the market has grown more than we forecast is because cloud services have been included in the corporate infrastructure section."

In his opinion, these results could be expected, since in 2017 the country's GDP grew by 1.5%:

"The IT market is responding to GDP growth and is growing faster. Thus, the segments of software and IT services doubled compared to GDP. "

However, Robert Farish noted that the result in dollars was better than in rubles. For example, the segment of equipment (without mobile phones) in rubles decreased by 1%, and in dollars increased by 13.5%. For the IT services segment, these indicators amounted to 4.2 and 20%, and for the software market - 3.9 and 19%, respectively.

This shows that the strengthening of the ruble had a huge impact on the rise of the IT market in 2017.

"We saw such indicators 10-11 years ago, when the IT market was growing rapidly. But at the moment it is difficult to say how stable this growth will be, since much depends on the situation in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, IDC advises market participants to exercise caution, since such a favorable situation with the dollar exchange rate is unlikely to happen again in the near future, "said Robert Farish.

To illustrate the impact of the value of the dollar on the IT market, he showed that if we estimate the dynamics of IT spending in Russia in 2016-2017. at the current dollar exchange rate, Russia is in fifth place out of 89 countries. But if you look at this dynamics with a constant dollar exchange rate, that is, without taking into account the change in 2016-2017, then Russia is already in 62nd place.

Talking about how events developed in individual segments of the IT market in 2017, Robert Farish noted that PC sales increased by 17% (hereinafter - in dollars), and this generally corresponded to the situation with the dynamics of the exchange rate.

"In addition, the PC market was affected by the fact that companies began to update client devices, as well as switch to Windows 10, especially in the SMB sector. In addition, some vendors tried to find more profitable niches, moving on to deliveries of more expensive products, which led to higher prices and, accordingly, to the volume of the market, "he added.

The tablet segment has been falling for several years in a row and in 2017 decreased by 2%. But, according to IDC, there is already a situation here when updating devices begins to cause sales growth, although the replacement cycle for tablets is quite long. Nevertheless, analysts do not expect a special revival in this segment in 2018, believing that the decline will continue.

The mobile phone segment rose 24%. As Robert Farish noted, these devices have already become the main consumer platform, in other words, people primarily buy mobile phones. However, IDC notes that growth has begun to slow here and this trend will continue in 2018. Some of this slowdown is due to the decline in sales of conventional phones, not smartphones, which are now supplied with very few. In general, the mobile device market is already saturated, the number of vendors is declining here, as some of them are leaving.

In the field of printing and peripherals, there was a significant increase in 2017 - by 19%. According to Robert Farish, the suppliers with a strong position in the field of copying equipment won the most, since they received a return on the investments made earlier. The consumer segment began to rise only in the second half of 2017, although demand here is still weaker than in the corporate segment.

"Considering the situation until 2019, we believe that the press and periphery market will continue to grow at a level that corresponds to the state of the economy in the country. We do not expect double-digit growth, most likely this figure will not exceed 10%, "said Robert Farish.

Moving to the segment of servers and corporate equipment, he stressed that in 2017 it grew very much - by 43%. The reason, on the one hand, is the sharp decline in demand in 2016, and on the other, at the beginning of the revival of investment in the corporate sector. In particular, new investments in high-price solutions came from energy companies, banks, manufacturing enterprises, that is, traditional consumers of server equipment. Along with this, in 2017, investments from Internet companies significantly increased, which spurred the rise of the server market, especially in unit terms.

Robert Farish noted another trend that affected the server market:

"Many Chief information officers and managers have faced an urgent need to upgrade their corporate infrastructure, caused by the lack of investment in purchasing new equipment in the previous couple of years. Now it's time to make decisions. It is possible that this situation will cause a slight increase in demand for relevant cloud services, but in general, with a high degree of probability, we can expect that the rise in the IT infrastructure market will continue until 2019. "

As for the cloud segment, in 2017 its volume grew by 15% and reached half a billion dollars. IDC expects further growth, with SaaS ("software as a service") accounting for the lion's share, with major investments coming from the corporate sector rather than SMB.

According to Robert Farish, it is impossible to analyze the IT market in Russia, not taking into account the sanctions and import substitution policy. Thus, at the macro level, sanctions affected the economy as a whole, although they affected several areas of the economy in different ways:

"We don't see them having a big impact on the ICT market, although they have an impact on the infrastructure segment. In particular, the growth in the field of software development is due to a reduction in purchases of finished software. "

In addition, sanctions make it difficult for global companies to work in Russia, as they entail many problems related to the requirements of regulators, and some of the products are banned. But the impact of sanctions is unevenly distributed, as American companies feel them the most, and Chinese ones the least.

Import substitution policies have had some beneficial effects. Some segments that used to be dominated by international companies have opened. This allowed local companies to grow and conduct developments that they could not do before, and served as an incentive for the creation of software in Russia.

But the role of the state is not limited to this.

"Given the plans to develop the digital economy, we expect future growth in the share of public investment in ICT related to this initiative. This will increase the number of mega-projects, such as "smart'cities, the introduction of advanced IT in health and education," said Robert Farish.

2016

Russia accounts for 0.8% of global ICT services exports

In 2016, it Russia accounted for 0.8% of the global export of ICT services (computer, telecommunication information). The leaders - Ireland and - India form, respectively, 14.4 and 11.2% of global exports of ICT services, the Netherlands,,,,, - USA Germany China Great Britain France 3.4-7.8%.

Russoft: the IT market is in plus rather than minus

Analysts at NP Russoft recorded an improvement in the Russian IT market at the end of 2016, although the fall has not yet ended from the position of Western companies. The association made its conclusions published on August 14, 2017 based on the analysis of open data from various sources, including the results of ratings, market (or segment) studies conducted by Russian and international analysts, the results of the year announced by the largest IT companies, as well as expert assessments. From its own information, Russoft has only data from an annual survey on sales of Russian software companies in the domestic market, which made it possible to make its own assessment of the situation on the Russian software market.

Stabilization

According to Russoft, the market situation information technology Russia in 2016 stabilized if you look at it from abroad: if there was a reduction in market volume in foreign exchange terms, it amounted to no more than 3-4% (up to about $17 billion) after the collapse by almost 40% in 2015 and 16% a year earlier. If you take the position of Russian IT companies and consumers, then at the end of 2016 you can see a clear improvement in the situation in the IT market.

At the same time, in the first half of 2016, IDC experts predicted a 13% fall in the IT market at the end of the year. Russoft predicted the growth of the IT market by 2-3% or the same fall, but in ruble terms. A similar figure in dollars was predicted depending on the change in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. In fact, the national currency depreciated by about 10%. However, the reduction in the IT market turned out to be much smaller. Thus, the situation turned out to be better than the experts predicted both Russoft and IDC.

Growth in dollar terms: arguments

At the same time, there is reason to assume that in 2016 the IT market grew in dollar terms. This assumption in Russoft is supported by the ratings data TAdviser and CNews. The combined turnover of the 100 largest companies in dollars in the TAdviser100 rating decreased by 1.5%, and in the CNews rating increased by 4.7%. At the same time, Rostec provided minus TAdviser100. At the same time, small software companies that could not get into these ratings increased their sales in the domestic market by 24% (according to Russoft's calculation based on the data of the annual survey).

Another argument in favor of the version about increasing the dollar volume of the IT market is the assessment of OCS, a multidisciplinary Russian distributor in the ICT sector, according to which the IT market grew by 2-3% in 2016 in dollar terms. However, one should not oppose OCS estimates and IDC data, since experts may have significantly different ideas about what belongs to the IT market and what does not apply, Russoft emphasized.

Another argument in favor of the growth of the IT market is the sales volume of a number of foreign companies. SAP grew by about 1% in dollar terms. Microsoft has the same growth. The American company SAS added 27%, Apple - 55% (probably largely due to a significant increase in demand for expensive smartphones). Only IBM (of those companies that summed up the year publicly) lost 12%.

Finally, most segments of the Russian IT market received a significant increase. The fall affected only those segments that are declining within the entire global market. According to Russoft experts, such a reduction indicates either the saturation of these segments, or the introduction of alternative technologies, but not the presence of crisis phenomena on the Russian market.

Given the arguments above, Russoft is inclined to believe that a version of a small growth (at least 3%) of the market in dollar terms is more likely. IDC data may well also be fair, but this company most likely does not classify some growing segments in the IT market. If you take them into account, the volume of this market may not be $17 billion, and not less than $20 billion.

Market volume in ruble terms

In terms of rubles, the IT market increased by 5.1% (based on IDC data), which almost corresponds to the official inflation rate of 5.4%. Consequently, in ruble terms and at comparable prices, the market volume did not change. If we recognize the version of dollar growth by 3%, then ruble sales increased by 13% (taking into account inflation - by 7.5%), calculated in Russoft.

Ruble expression is important for Russian IT companies that measure their achievements and failures in rubles. Market growth for Russian companies is at least 5-10% in ruble terms in comparable prices (taking into account official inflation). This version is confirmed by the fact that the total ruble revenue of the 100 largest IT companies in Russia in the Cnews100 rating increased by 15% (taking into account inflation, this will be about 10%).

Pros for consumers

There is reason to believe that IT consumers in Russia were in the black - they received more useful functionality than a year ago. If we focus on IDC data, taking into account the rise and fall in prices (for equipment they decreased, and for software they grew), then there will be zero increase. If we allow the growth of the IT market in dollars by 3%, then consumers received about 5% more. However, it is necessary to take into account not only the change in prices, but also the greater functionality received for the same money when switching to cloud technologies and free software. This transition is on a large scale, as evidenced, for example, by the rapid growth in demand for cloud services such as SaaS and IaaS. Consequently, consumers, like Russian companies, were in the black, concluded in Russoft.

Redistribution of the IT market in Russia: 10 candidates for leadership

Main article: Redistribution of the IT market in Russia: 10 candidates for leadership

IDC forecast: Fall continues

IDC expects that in 2016 the Russian IT market will continue to decline at double-digit rates: "The current main market scenario provides for an annual reduction of 13%," analysts said in March 2016. Earlier, IDC expected the market to contract less significantly in 2016.

The Russian economy continues to experience a recession, which, as we can see, is reflected in a decrease in IT costs by both home users and organizations and enterprises, says Robert Farish, IDC Vice President in Russia and the CIS

Market players' expectations

Lenovo's head in Russia, the CIS and Eastern Europe Gleb Mishin expects the market to fall by 10-15% year-on-year if there are no geopolitical or global financial shocks. Basically, the consumer market will shrink due to the depletion of population savings, he said in a conversation with TAdviser. In the corporate sector, Mishin even expects a revival in purchases, linking this to last year's pent-up demand.

In addition, the popularity of multifunctional devices and tablets on Windows will grow, which, with the reduction in the cost of construction and platforms, become more attractive to consumers than traditional laptops, a Lenovo spokesman said.

IBS Chairman Sergei Matsotsky is inclined to consider the IDC forecast for 2016 realistic: "If you do not take into account the fluctuations in the course, and I definitely cannot predict them, the forecast looks realistic. That is, in rubles, I believe the market will contract by about 10% "plus or minus."

Boris Bobrovnikov, CEO of CROC, believes that IDC's forecast is quite correct, provided that the dollar remains at the current level. At the same time, according to the company's estimates, the market volume in rubles will remain at the level of 2014-2015, he expects.

It is clear that the year will be difficult and many industries will continue to reduce their IT costs. First of all, the financial sector and telecom, retail and oil and gas will not "sink" so much. At the same time, all these industries have their own growth points, "Bobrovnikov said in a conversation with TAdviser. - Financial and telecom industries are closely connected with automation - accordingly, they cannot completely reduce their IT costs. Now companies in these industries are focused on combining computing power within the framework of consolidation processes, in addition, projects to transfer personal data to the territory of the Russian Federation will continue in 2016.

In the retail market, which has decreased by 10% this year, consolidation processes are also underway, large trading facilities are being completed, while companies are trying to optimize their IT costs, continues Boris Bobrovnikov. Most often, according to his observations, this is due to cloud technologies and data center outsourcing. In turn, the companies of the oil and gas sector set the main task of industrial automation: many projects are aimed at introducing systems for collecting dispatch data and maintaining an automated system of technical accounting of electricity. All to reduce production CAPEX.

The positive dynamics of the Russian IT market, according to the general director of CROC, will be given by the public sector, the industrial industry, transport and, possibly, the construction industry as part of large state infrastructure projects and preparations for the 2018 World Cup.

The "I-Teco" found it difficult to give a forecast for the IT market in dollar terms due to the high volatility of exchange rates. In ruble terms, in 2016, the company does not expect a market fall: "Rather, we are counting on moderate growth in almost all industries, except maybe the financial sector, the prerequisites for which include the implementation of large-scale state projects, primarily related to the preparation for the 2018 World Cup, as well as the development of innovative solutions and the course towards import substitution, which covered almost all industries," said TAdviser Vladimir Lvov, director of strategic development "I-Teco."

An Ai-Teko spokesman added that their company relies on services and outsourcing, including infrastructure - here demand is growing steadily.

Olga Tarnovskaya, vice president for work with vendors of the Asteros group, in a conversation with TAdviser noted, that although the company is included in new projects and continues to invest in the development of new expertise, The first quarter of 2016 shows a trend towards the preservation of the main economic and political restrictive factors for the IT market. Among them, she calls low oil prices, sectoral sanctions, the high cost of attracting financing and a drop in overall consumer demand. Optimization of IT budgets will continue, Tarnovskaya believes.

From the point of view of industries, difficult times await the IT budgets of banks and insurance companies, the oil and gas sector, retail and telecom. Many of the companies in these segments are waiting for consolidation and restructuring of market strategies to increase competitiveness and retain customers, says Olga Tarnovskaya. - Import substitution, data security, reduced operating costs through outsourcing and "clouds," implementation of large infrastructure projects in the field of IT supported by the state will remain market drivers.

ATI notes that when forecasting, IDC applied a scenario approach and a market fall of 13% - this is the most likely, from the point of view of analysts, but not the only forecast figure. There is also an optimistic scenario with meager growth, there is also a scenario of a deeper fall, which is associated with various options for the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate and oil prices.

ATI, as a Russian company, makes its plans and estimates in national currency and, of course, we evaluate only the corporate IT segment. For 2016, we expect a slight - unit of interest - growth of the IT market in Russia in ruble terms, - said TAdviser company representative Dmitry Vedev

ATI associates its expectations with stabilization in the foreign exchange market, a decrease in the pace of GDP contraction and an extremely insignificant increase in customer IT budgets in order to compensate for the costs of supporting and maintaining information systems, where the share of imported hardver and software components is still large.

Speaking about industry specifics, Vedev noted that in the context of the economic crisis there are no "good" and "bad" industries in terms of IT consumption. There are enterprises that are in a difficult situation and barely make ends meet, there are enterprises that have chosen to wait out difficult times without investing in development, and there are enterprises that, on the contrary, invest in technology in the crisis in order to gain an advantage over competitors.

ATI is betting on the latest type of enterprise that almost every industry has, Vedev says. According to him, at the beginning of 2016, the company has an "interesting portfolio of orders" on topics such as the introduction of business process management systems, the transition to digital content, Internet of Things applications, corporate mobility, etc.

Maykor tends to agree with IDC analysts in their forecasts for the broader market. At the same time, the company hopes that IT services will not decline so rapidly, especially in rubles. Maykor representative Irina Semenova notes that, at least for their segment - IT outsourcing - 2015 turned out to be relatively stable.

2015

PMR data: 31.7% drop in euros to €9.7 billion

On August 3, 2016, the analytical company PMR released brief results of a study of the Russian information technology (IT) market. Its volume in terms of euros decreased by a third. In rubles, the decline was not so strong. Experts predict a further fall in the market in 2016 and a rise in 2017.

According to PMR estimates, in 2015 sales of IT products and services in Russia amounted to 652.1 billion rubles, which is 8.8% less than a year ago. In July 2015, experts predicted a slight growth of the market in Russian currency - by 0.8%.

The decline in the euro was also stronger than previously expected - by 31.7% against the predicted 22.7%. In 2015, the volume of the Russian IT industry amounted to 9.7 billion euros.

Experts say that the valuation in euros characterizes the market to the best extent. The fact is that a significant part of the equipment and software comes to the Russian Federation from abroad, and prices for foreign solutions directly depend on exchange rates.

The sharp devaluation of the ruble, caused by Western sanctions and the fall in oil prices, in the second half of 2014 and in 2015 led to an increase in the price of hardware and software, which in turn caused a tangible decline in the computer market and a redistribution of shares among IT solution manufacturers.

The main segments of the Russian IT market, as well as certain types of products, showed mixed dynamics in 2015. For example, equipment sales decreased in both euros and rubles, and the implementation of software and IT services recorded a slight increase partly as a result of higher prices.

In 2015, global IT companies began to rebuild their strategies in Russia, focusing on direct contacts with large retailers and end users. Interestingly, the corporate sector has begun to show more interest in B-brands and even manufacturers of non-brand products, analysts say.

Another trend in PMR is the orientation of Russian business and the public sector to purchase equipment manufactured by Chinese vendors. The latter, including Huawei and Lenovo, have taken up active investment in the development of sales and support in the Russian market, which could lead to a strengthening of the position of Asian suppliers in Russia in 2016-2017, the study says.

According to the PMR report, the Russian IT market is quite consolidated: no more than 100-120 companies operate on it with annual revenues exceeding 1 billion rubles. Analysts named Merlion, DNS, the National Computer Corporation, Marvel Distribution and Lanit the largest domestic IT companies in terms of turnover in 2015.

The largest segment of the Russian IT market is equipment, which accounted for about 44% of revenue in 2015. A year earlier, this shared indicator was higher. Sales of Solutions SaaS increased by 28%.

85% of corporate spending on information technology in 2015 came from large companies. The remaining share was taken by small and medium-sized businesses.

As for the government's IT costs, they increased in 2015. Government agencies continue to invest in IT systems despite general budget cuts and its growing deficit.

Growing macroeconomic uncertainty and the economic crisis in 2015 pushed business and government agencies to implement solutions to optimize costs, and at the same time to postpone the implementation of new projects, analysts say.

According to PMR employees, the further economic development of Russia and the situation in the IT industry will depend on many factors, primarily on the actions of the government. The role of the authorities in managing economic growth in Russia is much greater compared to other countries.

Analysts expect that in 2016 the Russian IT market will continue to fall, but the rate of regression will be less than 2015 - by 1.2% in rubles and 5.5% in European currency. In 2017, the market will return to growth: sales of IT products and services in our country will rise by 7.2% and 6.3% in rubles and euros, respectively (see graph above).

The largest IT companies operating in Russia

Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia 2016

Russoft on the real fall of the Russian IT market in 2015

In the spring of 2016, Russoft experts conducted their traditional analysis of data characterizing the Russian IT market and obtained from various sources. As a result, they presented their vision of changing the volume of the Russian IT market in 2015. In general, confirming the conclusions of leading foreign analytical agencies about a significant drop in the volume of the IT market in dollar terms, Russoft analysts came to the conclusion that the main drop in sales was due to foreign vendors, while regarding the domestic software development industry and the entire software market in Russia, we can even talk about some growth.

According to IDC and Gartner, in 2015 there was a collapse of the Russian IT market with a reduction in its volume by about 40% (39% according to IDC and 44% according to Gartner). The main reason is about the same devaluation of the ruble.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the size of the IT market in 2015 amounted to 740 billion rubles, which is 9% less than a year earlier, if we count in comparable prices.

Russoft has developed its own "bi-currency" index to assess the Russian IT market. It is calculated as follows: the market is divided into imported and domestic products and solutions, and for each segment the growth or decline in the corresponding currency is determined, and then the weight of each segment is taken into account when calculating the total market volume.

It should be taken into account that with such a "dual-currency approach," Russoft did not take into account three significant factors. Firstly, prices in dollars and rubles, most likely, for buyers decreased by several percent. Secondly, the massive transition of corporate customers to free software that has begun involves the purchase of approximately the same functionality without paying for licenses (when the buyer's costs will consist of paying for support services for the purchased software). A similar effect is provided by the transition to cloud technologies, and it also has a significant scale for the Russian IT market. Consequently, the fall of 25%, which was received by Russoft analysts, still needs to be adjusted downwards.

Three views on the change in the size of the Russian IT market in 2015

Valuation position	Change	Notes
С позиции глобальных компаний ($)	-39%	IDC version
С позиции отечественных компаний (рубли с учетом inflation)	-9%	version of the Ministry of Economic Development
	-14%	calculated by Russoft according to IDC, taking into account official inflation of 12.9%
Бивалютный индекс «Руссофт» (с позиции потребителей ИТ)	-25%	the magnitude of the fall without taking into account a number of factors, the influence of which is still difficult to measure.
	-10.15	expert taking into account the impact of the transition to SPOs, more active use of cloud technologies and lower prices in dollars and rubles

Three views on the change in the size of the Russian software market in 2015

Valuation position	Change	Notes
С позиции глобальных компаний ($)	-43.10%	IDC version
С позиции отечественных компаний (рубли с учетом инфляции)	-19%	calculated according to IDC data, taking into account official inflation of 12.9%
Бивалютный индекс «Руссофт» (с позиции потребителей ПО)	-7% (-3%)	replicated software solutions only (considering the transition to SAT and SaaS)
	+ 2% (up to + 10%)	together with custom software development services (taking into account the transition to open source software and SaaS)
Продажи российских софтверных компаний на внутреннем рынке	+ 28% (+ 13%)	nominal income in rubles (including official inflation)

We can conclude that the positive impact of IT on the economy and society in 2015 decreased compared to 2014, but the development of the IT market with a change in its structure continues, even with such a reduction, they say in Russoft.

IDC bottom line: 38% market cut in dollars to $17.4 billion

On March 31, 2016, IDC announced a reduction in the IT market in Russia in 2015.

"The Russian economy continues to experience a downturn, which, as we can see, is reflected in a decrease in IT spending by both home users and organizations and enterprises," says Robert Farish, IDC vice president for Russia and the CIS.

The volume of the Russian IT market in dollar terms decreased by 38% in 2015 and amounted to $17.4 billion, the IDC told TAdviser.

B. Bobrovnikov's forecast: Decrease in equipment sales by 20% in foreign currency, software - by 30%

In November 2014, Boris Leonidovich Bobrovnikov's personal forecast for 2015 is such that equipment sales will decrease by about 20% in foreign currency, software products - by 30% in foreign currency, and IT services will retain the current volume in rubles (but in foreign currency will decrease accordingly).

IDC forecast: -15% in currency and -1% in rubles

The IT market forecast for 2015, made by IDC based on a 3% fall in GDP, an average annual exchange rate of 45 rubles, an ongoing escalation of sanctions, and a decrease in oil prices to less than $80- $95 per barrel of Brent, implies a significant decline in sales^[23].

According to the company's analysts, in 2015, equipment sales in Russia should fall by 20% in foreign currency (3% in rubles), software sales - by 25% in foreign currency (9% in rubles), and IT services should show a drop of 10% in foreign currency, but in rubles to grow by 9%. In general, the Russian IT market, according to IDC's forecast, should fall by 18% in foreign currency and by 1% in rubles.

2014

The Largest IT Companies

Ranking TAdviser100: The largest IT companies in Russia

Market Size Summary Table

PMR data: Market dips 17.5% in euros

On July 14, 2015, the analytical company PMR published the results of a study of the Russian IT market. Its volume, as experts found out, without taking into account currency factors decreased slightly, and taking into account the devaluation of the ruble, the decline turned out to be more than significant.

It follows from the PMR report that in 2014 sales of products and services in the field of information technology amounted to about 700 billion rubles in Russia, which is 1.6% less than a year earlier. In the European currency, the exchange rate of which against the ruble significantly increased in the fourth quarter of 2014, the Russian market showed a 17.5 percent decline - to 14 billion euros.

Experts say that the euro valuation better characterizes the situation in the domestic industry, since most of the equipment and software here is of foreign origin, and the prices for such products directly depend on currency fluctuations.

The rapid devaluation of the ruble in the second half of 2014 led to an increase in the price of foreign IT solutions, which, in turn, affected the increase in market volume in ruble terms. However, even if we exclude an unfavorable change in exchange rates, in Russia there is still a sharp drop in demand for IT products and services, which can be compared with the situation in 2009, the PMR study says.

According to analysts, political and economic difficulties in Russia, as well as currency fluctuations, are not the main factors that determined the picture of the Russian IT market in 2014. Stagnation began to manifest itself here in 2013, and many industry participants were still talking about the saturation of the main segments of the IT industry.

Russian IT companies that took part in the PMR survey talk about the need to adapt their strategies to a slowdown or market stagnation. In addition, they agreed that the recovery of the IT market could occur subject to a general economic restructuring, the creation of new innovative companies and industries in the country.

Experts say that in 2015 the situation in the Russian IT market is uncertain and will remain so in the next five years.^[24]

Data from the Ministry of Economic development

In 2014, the capacity of the IT market is estimated at 698 billion rubles, according to the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015 and for the planning period 2016-2017, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development in September 2014. It also provides an adjusted estimate of the IT market for 2013 - 658 billion rubles. It turned out to be slightly higher than the preliminary estimate made by the department in February 2014: then data on the market volume of 635 billion rubles were presented.

Under the basic version of the development of the Russian economy (assumes the preservation of inertial trends that have developed in the last period, the conservative investment policy of private companies, limited spending on the development of infrastructure sector companies with the stagnation of public demand), the Ministry of Economic Development predicts by 2017 the growth of the IT market by more than 6% compared to 2013.

The further nature of the development of the domestic IT industry will be due to the combination of global and local trends, including: an increase in demand for "smart devices" and Internet services, further implementation of IT systems in business management, automation of the public sector, the Ministry of Economic Development notes.

The software development segment has the highest potential, but the system integration and distribution segment will continue to grow, as the demand for information technology will increase domestically.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, promising areas of IT development will be: cloud computing, mobile applications, information security, new human-machine interfaces, neurotechnology. The volume of software for mobile devices will continue to grow, which is associated with a massive increase in demand for smartphones and mobile devices.

It is also expected to increase inventions in the field of ICT. According to forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the number of patents issued in this area will increase in 2017 by 13% compared to 2013 and will amount to 4516 units. Their share in the total number of patents issued will increase to 10.6% against 9% in 2013. The number of certificates issued for computer programs, databases and topology of integrated circuits will amount to 13,025 units in 2017 (94.6% compared to the level of 2013).

By 2017, there will be changes in the structure of the IT market towards an increase in the share of the software market and the service market with a decrease in the share of hardware, the Ministry of Economic Development notes.

IDC data: -16% in dollars to $29.3 billion

On March 19, 2015, IDC noted the "drama" of economic and political events taking place in our country^[25]

"Since 1990, vendors in Russia have had to deal with periods of instability. Nevertheless, falling sales volumes quickly recovered, so it was customary to treat periods of volatility in Russia easily. But everything changed in 2014: it seems that the Russian economy, and accordingly the IT market, entered a long recession, "the company said in its^[26]

.

According to the company's specialists, the volume of the Russian IT market decreased in 2014 by 16% to $29.3 billion (data from March 2016).

Interestingly, in October 2014, assessing the growth drivers, IDC analysts stated that the development of the Russian IT market will be positively influenced by fairly high oil prices, expanding interaction with China, and new business interaction opportunities within the Eurasian Economic Union. As positive factors, the influence of import substitution processes in the defense industry, the expansion of the availability of clouds in the Russian Federation with the support of international suppliers and the wider use of the Internet were also noted.

In particular, it was stated that the defense industry of the Russian Federation will invest more in local suppliers. There is a plan to replace Western IT products in the defense industry with open source products, and the government is creating a transition plan that involves replacing imported equipment with domestic IT products, including developing its own processor. The main goal is the safety of automated weapons control systems. All this will lead to significant costs for IT services, in particular for services for the development of special applications, IT consulting and system integration.

Regarding the restraining factors of the IT market, IDC analysts noted international difficulties in the country in connection with the situation in Ukraine, a slowdown in the growth of the Russian economy, capital withdrawal from the country, insufficient diversification of the economy, and the continued weakening of the ruble.

Among other things, it was noted that large government projects are often not very effective. The overlapping functions of federal and regional structures lead to an increase in the cost of IT projects, disrupted deadlines and bloated budgets.

In 2015, consumers of Russian modern technologies will be forced to bring their spending in line with new economic realities, IDC said. The Russian corporate sector will revise all aspects of its spending, including the IT usage model. Further legislative initiatives aimed at supporting local manufacturers in public procurement are expected to appear in the public sector, analysts said.

According to Robert Farish, vice president of IDC in the CIS, commercial activity in Russia is politicized, the structure and volume of the IT market in Russia will feel a negative impact.

The company points to the opinion of the majority of IT vendors in Russia, who expressed expectations of a difficult 2015.

IDC considers the likelihood of a revival of the IT market of the Russian Federation in 2016 to be low.

Boris Bobrovnikov's forecast turned out to be correct

According to Boris Bobrovnikov, head of CROC, the Russian IT market in 2014 will fall by 15% in euros and 13% in dollars^[27].

2013

Expert RA: leading Russian IT companies have sharply slowed down growth

According to the ranking of the largest domestic IT companies in 2013, compiled by the Expert RA rating agency, the growth rate of their revenue decreased by almost 20 percentage points. The total revenue of the companies participating in the current list increased over the past year by only 2% and amounted to 451.4 billion rubles (in 2012 - by 21.5%, in 2011 - by 30.7%).

The stagnation in the ICT market is associated both with a decrease in investments in non-financial assets (according to Rosstat, in 2013 their volume amounted to 9.66 trillion rubles against 9.77 trillion rubles a year earlier), and with the completion of large-scale infrastructure projects, which led to a drop in the number and volume of integration orders with large-scale supplies of equipment and software. According to Expert RA estimates, the increase in the total revenue of the ranking participants in the segment of equipment and software supplies within the framework of integration projects turned out to be negative in 2013 and amounted to minus 13% (against + 22% in 2012). Of all types of IT activities, the supply of equipment and software is so far the only direction where the change in the total revenue of the ranking participants was negative.

The largest share of the revenue of the ranking participants in 2013 falls on the IT services segment. In total, consulting and integration, support and training brought 207.3 billion rubles to leading IT companies (46% of their total revenue).

The most noticeable pace is developing the direction of software development: according to the results of 2013, the increase in the total revenue of ranking participants here amounted to 16%, and its volume - almost 50 billion rubles.

"The need for software is often dictated by the customer's desire to increase their efficiency by technologically developing various areas of activity in order to reduce costs. Separately, for software developers, the demand for IT solutions from the state is triggered in connection with the transition to electronic document management and the continuation to the urse for the development of the remote nature of state interaction with the external environment, "said Vartan Khanferyan, analyst at Expert RA.

According to Expert RA forecasts, revenue in the integration supply segment will continue to decline in the ICT market, and IT services will continue to spur the market. As for customers, the ranking participants expect that the public sector will take a significant share in the near future, in connection with the program for the development of the IT industry in the near future.

IDC data: $34.49 billion (+ 0.8 %)

According to IDC data from February 2015, the volume of the Russian IT market in 2013 amounted to $34.49 billion, which is 0.8% more than a year earlier^[28].

Earlier, IDC reported a decline in the market during this period. According to the company, in 2013 the Russian IT market shrank by 0.9% compared to the previous year and amounted to $ 33,358,91 million. Interestingly, back in October 2013, IDC predicted that the growth of the Russian IT market in 2013 would not exceed 7%.

"The double-digit times of the annual growth rate of the Russian IT market are a thing of the past. Nevertheless, the market will continue to grow moderately due to the action of a number of factors, which include relatively high oil prices, the process of preparing for large-scale international sports events, the overall growth of household incomes, as well as greater penetration, Internet- said the Victor Pratusevich leading consultant. "The IDC growth will be especially significant in the mobile solutions software and IT services sectors."

February 2014 data

According to the forecast, the highest growth rate of development - more than 10%, should have been observed in the technological segments of the market - software, mid-range servers, IT services. The markets for hi-end servers and personal computers, as expected, will show a reduction - by almost 10% and 6.5%, respectively.

As a result, the equipment segment in 2013 decreased by 3.5% compared to last year, while IT services and the boxed software sector increased by 8.1 and 3.4%, respectively.

The Russian software market also showed a trend towards slowing growth, but it reached its maximum historical value of $4.99 billion. More than half of this amount falls on various applications, about 30% − on infrastructure software, just under 20% − application development software.

In the application segment, the most popular in 2013 were solutions for automating enterprise management systems:

• enterprise resource management systems ($514.39 million),
• business intelligence systems ($210.05 million) and
• Production Operations Management Applications ($134.98 million).

The process of using cloud technologies in Russia significantly lags behind world indicators: in the general structure of the software market, the cost of cloud solutions does not exceed several percent. Large Russian businesses are still having difficulty abandoning internal corporate decisions. The most likely scenario, according to IDC, is a hybrid cloud scenario, in which individual divisions in the company will use cloud services.

The IT services market in 2013 showed the lowest growth rate in the last few years and stopped at $7.73 billion, which is 8.1% more than a year earlier. This market segment is still not transparent enough, since many Russian supplier companies prefer not to disclose the details of their activities.

Data from the Ministry of Economic development

In 2013, the volume of the IT market is estimated at 762.3 billion rubles (106.9% in comparable prices by 2012). At the same time, the total volume of IT products produced by Russian companies is about 0.6% of the global market. The domestic IT industry meets the needs of the Russian market by 25%, the main customers are the state and companies with state participation, the Ministry of Economic Development states. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Russian IT market in 2013 may grow by 6.9%. The main growth driver will be software development, and the main customer will be the state and companies with state participation.

In February 2014, information on the volume of the Russian information technology market was released - according to the preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development in 2013, it amounted to 635 billion rubles. Such data are provided in monitoring on the results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2013, published by the Ministry^[29].

In 2012, according to the data of the same last year's monitoring, the volume of the IT market amounted to 716 billion rubles, and in 2011 - 649 billion. Thus, over the year this figure decreased by 81 billion rubles, and in relation to 2011 - by 14 billion rubles. The Ministry of Economic Development could not explain the reasons for the fall of the market and changes in its structure. The Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications believes that the main factor in the "jumps" of numbers is the clarification of the counting method, and not the change in the market itself.

According to the new methodology, the IT market includes software, services, personal computers, server equipment and storage systems. Printing devices (30-40 billion rubles, according to the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications) and tablets (50-60 billion rubles) are not included.

In 2012, the volume of the IT market, calculated according to the methodology of the Ministry of Communications, amounted to 620 billion rubles. "The figures given in the monitoring data of the Ministry of Communications in 2013 are based on the planned figures given in our strategy," say the Ministry of Communications. "In this regard, the figure of 635 billion for 2013 looks quite reasonable."

Most of the information technology market in 2013, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, was the hardware segment - 56.1%. Software accounted for 19.5%, IT services - 24.4%.

A year earlier, the equipment segment was 50.3%, software - 20.9%, services - 28.8%. Thus, the share of iron in the structure of the Russian IT market in 2013, according to the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, significantly increased.

The conclusion about the accuracy of the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development can be made by comparing the forecast of the IT market volume in 2013 and the final value. At the end of September 2012, the ministry assumed that the market would reach 762.3 billion rubles. This is 127.3 billion higher than the value indicated in the preliminary estimate published in February 2014.

Data of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass

Less than 4% (30 billion rubles) of the Russian software market is occupied by domestic manufacturers and developers. According to the Minister of Communications and Mass Media Nikolai Nikiforov, the only completely Russian sector in information technology is IT services. The head of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications said this at a meeting of the Russian government, presenting to the Cabinet of Ministers a draft strategy for the development of the industry for the period 2014-2020. and for the future until 2025

"Almost 100% of the equipment is imported, among the import software more than 75%, the only almost completely Russian sector is IT services," Nikolai Nikiforov explained. "In other words, we buy IT equipment abroad, and integrate it ourselves." 120 billion rubles. (20%) of the market are IT services of Russian companies

.

In support of the minister's words, the strategy developed by the Ministry of Communications for the period 2014-2020 is aimed at increasing the production of IT products in the country, which will be in demand on the global market.

PMR: -0.5% to RUB 711.6 bn

The volume of the Russian market for IT products and services in 2013 reached 711.6 billion rubles. This is 0.5% lower compared to 2012, the research company PMR reported in September 2014 that^[30] for the^[31]

The market contracted for the first time since 2009, analysts stated. For comparison, in 2012, the market volume grew by 13.9% compared to 2011.

At the end of 2012, some segments of the Russian IT market began to show a decline. However, none of the Russian market analysts expected that in 2013 the market as a whole would show negative dynamics. They were united in the opinion that the growth would be, although modest.

In foreign currency, the market decline turned out to be more significant, which was due to the weakening of the ruble: the decrease in euros was 6%, in US dollars - 3%.

In 2013, short-term projects prevailed, while the trend towards cost optimization continued. Corporate clients in Russia have reduced the number of purchases of new equipment and software licenses and increased the cost of IT support and outsourcing.

The decrease in corporate customer activity in 2013 made the state an important customer. Many integrators reported an increase in the share of government contracts in total sales.

In addition, in 2013, distributors faced a delay in payments, were forced to make concessions, allowing customers to pay for projects in installments. In 2013, quite calm changes took place in the Russian IT market. Sales did not fall significantly, as they did at the end of 2008 and 2009. Projects were not canceled, and their budgets were not revised. Stagnation reflects the evolution of the market, not the impact of any external factors, commented in PMR.

The two largest geographic regions of the Russian IT market are Moscow and St. Petersburg. They account for the lion's share of information technology spending in the country. The reason for this is that it is in these cities that the federal authorities and offices of most of the largest companies are located. Many IT contracts implemented in the regions are concluded in Moscow. Moscow accounts for 25% of all IT spending in Russia.

According to analysts, in 2014 the volume of the Russian IT products and services market will decrease by 3% in rubles compared to 2013, that is, the negative dynamics will intensify. According to experts, this decrease will mainly be due to a reduction in hardware costs, including personal computers.

PMR analysts partially attribute the dynamics of the IT market in Russia to the macroeconomic situation. "Currently, the Russian economy is balanizing between stagnation and moderate growth," experts say. According to their forecast, Russia's GDP growth next year will decrease to 1% compared to 1.3% growth in 2013 and 3.4% in 2012.

Recall that according to the PMR forecast of August 2013, the Russian IT market in 2013 was supposed to grow by 8.4% to 735 billion rubles. In ruble terms, growth will be maximum, analysts said: in dollars, the market will grow by 7.8%, in euros - by 6.2%.

Analysts believed that in 2013 growth will be partially formed by outsourcing, while the hardware segment will almost cease to play a role in growth due to market saturation.

The growth of the Russian IT market was also to be facilitated by the government: by financing technology parks and reducing the social tax for high-tech enterprises from 30% to 14% (this rate is planned to be maintained until 2021). According to PMR, more than one-third of IT companies in Russia enjoy a tax advantage.

PMR analysts also attribute the dynamics of the IT market to a change in gross domestic product (GDP). In 2012, GDP growth was 3.4%, but in 2013 the figure will be less. In the period from January to April 2013, GDP growth was only 1.8% compared to the same period last year. It is expected that by the end of 2013 the figure will not exceed 3%.

• 2013: Top managers of Russia's largest IT companies give their forecasts

Russia's IT market in 2030? Forecast of the authorities

In March 2013 government Russia , he approved the forecast of the country's long-term socio-economic development for the period up to 2030, developed by Ministry of Economic Development presidential decree, and affecting, Vladimir Putin among other things, the IT market.

The authorities predicted the pace of development and the volume of the IT market before the specified period, taking into account several possible scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. In particular, the Ministry of Economic Development identified three main scenarios: conservative (characterized by moderate long-term development rates based on active modernization of the fuel and energy complex with a relative lag in civil and high technologies), innovative (based on the development of transport infrastructure and high-tech industries along with modernization of the fuel and energy complex) and target (forced) scenario (characterized by an increased form of private business accumulation, the creation of a large-scale non-resource sector and a significant inflow of foreign capital).

According to the forecast of officials, under the conservative scenario of economic development by 2030, the volume of the Russian IT market will increase 2.7 times in relation to the 2011 indicator and will reach 4102.6 billion rubles, and under the innovative scenario - will grow 3.7 times to 5640.4 billion rubles.

The main trend of the IT market in Russia for these years will be a decrease in the share of hardware in its overall structure and the transition to the formation of software and service markets, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. At the same time, the share of the software market and the service market in an innovative scenario will be higher than in a conservative development scenario.

The document also provides values ​ ​ for individual segments of the IT market based on data from technology platforms, which differ from the indicators given in the report of officials. In particular, technical platforms estimated the volume of the Russian software market for 2011 at 208.5 billion rubles. and predict its growth by 2020 to 858 billion rubles.

The authorities attribute the development of research in the field of creating a single management environment and a single information space of transport infrastructure to the key scientific and technological trends that form the IT market, development of research in the field of new principles of organization of calculations and creation of computing architectures, built on new paradigms, research in the field of machine learning systems, based on new methods and algorithms, research in the field of communication infrastructures with terabit rates of information transfer, development of supercomputer computing due to development of new algorithms for solving application problems with complex logic of calculation process and others.

IDC forecast to 2018

• According to the IDC forecast (October 2013), from 2013 to 2017, the annual growth in IT spending in Russia will be higher by an average of 6% and in 2017 the absolute amount of costs will be $46.7 billion. Retailers will show high growth - 10.7% on average per year. Indicators for banks and insurance companies can reach 8.2%, and providers of other financial services will demonstrate an average growth rate of 13.9% in IDC.

• According to IDC estimates (March 2013), in the next five years, the Russian IT market will grow only by 5-7% per year. IDC analyst Timur Farukshin is convinced that in the next five years the market growth will be due to investments in the "third IT platform," that is, in mobile devices, applications for them, social networks and cloud technologies. "The costs of companies for the" second platform "- standard personal computers, local and global networks organized according to the client-server architecture - will remain at the same level in the coming years," Farukshin explained. - And the growth of the market will be due to investments in the "third platform."

According to IDC, today less than 50% of European companies are ready to work with such a manifestation of the "third platform" as big data. At the same time, they actively use clouds and social networks.

The share of the "third platform" in the structure of the IT market volume will increase simultaneously with the increase in the need to use mobile devices. Already in 2012, the share of smartphones in the personal device market, according to IDC, approached 50% and amounted to 11.2 million units. The remaining half of personal devices are PCs (4.3 million units), laptops (8.4 million) and tablets (900 million). It is assumed that by 2015 there will be 17.7 million smartphones, 3.9 million PCs, 13 million laptops and 3.2 million tablets on the Russian market.

Below are earlier IDC projections that fell completely short.

• Between 2012 and 2016, IDC expects a steady increase in IT costs in Russia. In the forecast period, these costs will increase annually by an average of 8% and in 2016 will amount to $47.3 billion. Nevertheless, the global economic instability and the deteriorating demographic situation in the country can negatively affect the situation in the Russian IT market.

• In the previously predicted IDC period from 2011 to 2015, IT costs in Russia will grow annually by an average of 11.6% and in 2015 will amount to $41.1 billion. The fastest growth rates will be for retailers (an average of 17.4% per year). Also, relatively high growth rates (15.1%) are predicted for the combined vertical, covering enterprises of transport, communications, power and housing and communal services.

• In the previously predicted IDC period from 2010 to 2014, IT costs in Russia will grow annually by an average of 16.8% and in 2014 will amount to $34.9 billion. The fastest growth rates will be for the home user market (an average of 19.8% per year). Also, relatively high growth rates (17.3%) are predicted for the combined vertical covering enterprises of transport, communications, power and housing and communal services.

2012

Ministry of Economic Development: Growth + 6.7% and 732 billion rubles

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, according to the results of 2012, the volume of the Russian IT market grew by 6.7% compared to 2011 and reached 732 billion rubles. The overall climate has changed, there is a slowdown in sales, a decrease in margins. Customers have significantly improved the quality of their services, and this makes IT companies more efficient.

Data of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass

The total volume of the domestic IT market is 620 billion rubles for 2012. The share of domestic software manufacturers on it is low: 30 billion or less than 4%. Another 20% falls on the IT services of Russian companies. This is 120 billion rubles.

Along with sales to the domestic market, IT products produced in the country are exported in a large volume. The total export volume is more than 4 billion dollars USA (or about 120 billion rubles). The high export rate most positively characterizes our IT industry, which produces products that are competitive in the global economy.

The IT industry in Russia employs about 300 thousand highly qualified specialists. Plus 700 thousand people work in enterprises directly related to the IT industry. In terms of the number of jobs, production and export indicators, the IT industry in Russia has already overtaken many sectors of the domestic economy.

The most successful IT companies operate in the circulation products and services sector. They are leading in their segments both in the Russian market (1C) and in the world: ABBYY, Kaspersky Lab. However, while in the total volume of global production of IT products, we are hardly noticeable: Russia's contribution is less than 1%, there are not a single Russian one in the top 100 global IT companies. By world standards, even the large domestic IT-Business are average in size on a global scale. At the same time, given the level of technologies and ready-made developments in promising areas, this can be changed.

The pace of further development of the IT industry will be determined by the ability of the state to solve a number of problems:

• personnel shortage (70% of IT-Business is people, the existing education system graduates the wrong specialists, but even there are few of them: 150 thousand instead of the required 350 thousand for the next 5 years),
• insufficient research and development (while the entire industry lives on the Soviet scientific groundwork, but it will soon end),
• imperfection of the legislative framework,
• low level of coordination of state authorities with the support of the IT industry.

IDC: Market Volume $34 Billion

IDC's final estimate of the IT market in Russia in 2012 amounted to $34 billion.

Earlier, according to IDC, announced in February 2013, the Russian IT market in 2012 grew by only 3.9% - to $36 billion, of which:

• most, $24 billion, came from the sale of equipment,
• about $7 billion more - for IT services,
• and the remaining $5 billion amounted to revenue from the sale of software.

"This is the

lowest level of market growth in the last decades, with the exception of the crisis years - for example, 2008," Timur Farukshin, director of consulting at IDC Russia and the CIS, told reporters.

An estimate of record low growth rates was made based on the information for the I-III quarters of 2012 and excluding data for the IV quarter.

Interestingly, the Ministry of Economic Development predicted that the volume of the domestic information technology market in 2012 will amount to 732 billion rubles, which is 6.7% higher than the same indicator in 2011 (648.6 billion rubles).

According to Timur Farukshin, the decline in the growth rate of the IT market in monetary terms is associated with the economic crisis. "Although they say that the peak of the crisis has passed, the same oil prices are not growing and the companies have no additional money for the development of IT," said the top manager (quoted by Interfax). - It should also be borne in mind that in quantitative terms the market has grown more - just the cost of servers and computers is constantly decreasing. In general, things are not bad in Russia - in many other countries of Eastern Europe, the volume of the IT market is not growing at all, but is decreasing. "

PMR: Growth of 13.9% and RUB 678bn

According to the Polish PMR, the volume of the Russian IT products and services market in 2012 reached RUB 678 billion. Compared to 2011, the market grew by 13.9%. Compared to 2011, the growth rate decreased. According to the results of 2011, the growth rate in rubles reached approximately 15%. However, analysts note that 2012 is the third year in a row, as a result of which the Russian IT market demonstrated a double-digit growth rate, despite its decline.

The actual growth turned out to be higher than experts expected. In July 2012, PMR analysts predicted growth of 12.5% to RUB 657 billion in 2012.

2012 Data - July 2012 Forecast

"Most of

the leading vendors, distributors and system integrators in Russia reported revenue growth in 2012. At the same time, almost half of the growth was formed due to the depreciation of the Russian ruble against the US dollar, "the report says. In dollar terms, the growth was 7.5%, and in euros - 16.4%.

"In 2012, the Russian IT market was better balanced. Sales of services, software and hardware were comparable, there were no strong jumps in either segment. This is due to the fact that the IT market in Russia has reached maturity, so in each of the segments the growth cannot be too high, "explained one of the authors of the report, Pavel Olszynka.

"We expect that the CAGR of the Russian IT market will reach 9% over the next 5 years," a PMR analyst said in July 2012, warning that this forecast is based on macroeconomic stability during this period. According to him, many Russian IT companies call the likelihood of a second wave of crisis and a decrease in oil and gas prices the most dangerous threats to the development of the IT industry in Russia^[32].

2011

IDC: $32bn

According to IDC, IT costs in Russia in 2011 exceeded $32.1 billion. The main volume of the market fell on home users. Due to the growth of household incomes, a slowdown in inflation, as well as the greater affordability of many IT products, home users have increased their spending on PCs, mobile devices and applications, as well as on information security software, the analytical company said in a report.

Viktor Pratusevich, a leading consultant at IDC, noted that the Russian economy is one of the fastest growing in the EMEA region. Last year, the growth rate of IT spending in a number of industries exceeded 20%, the expert said. "High prices for raw materials, together with the intention of the government to modernize the country's economy, serve as the main guarantors of investment in IT in the foreseeable future," he said.

In the corporate sector, the bulk of IT costs fell on enterprises in the transport, communications and energy industries. A number of communications holdings continued the policy of taking over smaller companies in the industry, requiring more investment in hardware and application integration. The growth of mobile Internet and the desire of many market participants to develop cloud services contributed to the growth of spending on infrastructure and consulting services.

Ministry of Communications: 649 billion rubles

According to the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications, in 2011 the IT market increased by 14.6% and amounted to 649 billion rubles. In accordance with the information provided by the Ministry of Economic Development, the IT market also amounted to 649 billion rubles, but increased by 6.6% compared to 2010.

In February 2012, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation provided data on the structure of sales in the IT market in 2011 by segments:

• hardware - 51.2% of the market;
• IT services - 28.4%;
• CR - 20.4%.

According to PMR, in 2011, the IT products and services market in Russia grew by 15.4% compared to 2010 to 584.4 billion rubles. (14.3 billion euros). The volume of the Russian IT market in 2011 for the first time exceeded the peak value of the pre-crisis 2008 in 14.1 billion euros^[33].

The following factors contributed to growth after the economic crisis in 2009:

• sustainable development of the Russian economy in the second half of 2010 and 2011, which allowed to increase investment in the corporate sector;
• the expansion of telecommunications companies and service providers that have begun building new data centers, and
• investments in the e-government program.

In 2011, most leading vendors and system integrators recorded double-digit growth rates. Among the largest IT projects in Russia in 2010-2011. analysts noted the introduction of SAP in Gazprom and Severstal, the contract concluded by MTS with Oracle, Gazprom's agreement on the purchase of software (software) with Microsoft, the implementation of Oracle e-Business Suite in the Federal Treasury of Russia and Oracle Siebel CRM in Sberbank.

IDC analysts At the end of 2011, they expected an increase in IT spending by 13.3% and an increase in market volume to $26.9 billion (forecast November 17, 2011). The largest growth rate - over 20% - will be shown by the IT services segment. In the previous report, analysts for the entire forecast period foreshadowed maximum growth in the equipment segment.^[34]

Source: IDC, September 2011

Although the Russian IT market is considered to be developing, at the end of 2011, analysts at Pierre Audoin Consultants (PAC) saw the first signs of its transition to maturity. Such conclusions allow us to make a qualitatively changed demand for technologies from banks and telecommunications companies. The introduction of IT in large retail chains has almost reached saturation - the built infrastructure is not inferior in level to global retailers. At the same time, there is still a very strong dependence of the Russian market on hardware, whose share is 46% against 27% in Western Europe.

2010

The IT market of Russia against the background of other countries

According to Timur Farukshin (IDC), in the segment of spending on IT equipment, Russia in 2010 was one of the top ten countries, with the total amount of expenses 12% higher than the global average, and only 3-5 times behind the countries of Western Europe and the United States per capita.

However, in terms of software spending, we already ranked 16th, 55% behind the global average, and 20 and 10 times from the United States and Western Europe, respectively.

With IT services, the situation is even worse: 22nd place, 66% lag, respectively, 24 and 17 times^[35].

IDC: IT Market Size $28bn

According to IDC estimates, the volume of the IT market in Russia in 2010 amounted to $23.7 billion. Its main share, as a year earlier, falls on home users - 35.7%^[36]. They are followed by enterprises in the transport, communications and energy sectors. Also in IDC, a segment of government agencies, education and health care is allocated.

Later, the company revised its estimate of the size of the market and increased it to $28 billion.

Ministry of Economic Development: the market grew to 565.8 billion rubles. (+ 3.7 %)

According to the Ministry of Economic Development (February 3, 2011), in comparable prices, i.e. taking into account the purchasing power of the ruble, compared to 2009, the volume of the Russian IT market in 2010 increased by 3.7% and amounted to 565.8 billion rubles. against 496.5 billion rubles. in 2009. Most of this volume falls on hardware - 51.4%, IT services - 28.4%, and the share of software was 20.2%.

According to the Ministry of Communications, published earlier, the total revenue of the IT market was also 565.8 billion rubles. But the growth dynamics of the two ministries differ strikingly. According to the industry department, the IT market in 2010 increased by 14%. The reason for the discrepancy is that the Ministry of Communications does not take into account inflation in its calculations.

IT and communications markets are growing more slowly than the total volume of goods and services produced in the country. Over the year, the share of ICT (with positive industry indicators according to any estimates) in the country's GDP decreased to 4% (4.6% a year ago, 4.2% in 2008 and 4.8% in 2007).

In estimates of the number of computers and Internet users operated in the country, the Ministry of Communications and the Ministry of Economic Development agreed. In 2010, there were 18.4% more PCs in the country - 61.9 million units, more than 74% of them are connected to the Internet.

Forecast: 5-10% growth in IT budgets

In 2010, the IT budgets of large Russian companies will grow by 5-10%, follows from a study prepared by the analytical center of the Union of IT Directors - GlobalCIO^[37]. The center interviewed IT directors of 237 Russian companies with a total turnover of about $53 billion and a total IT budget of $0.5 billion. As a result, it turned out that the volume of spending on information technology will average 0.87% of the revenue of these companies in 2010, compared to 0.8% in 2009. That is, the ratio of IT costs to revenue will increase by about 9%. For similar foreign companies, this figure is two to three times higher - they spend 1.7-2.4% of annual revenue on IT (depending on the scale of the business), the study says.

And in terms of one employee, the growth of IT budgets is barely noticeable at all: in 2010, as in 2009, companies invest about $1600 per person in IT. This is 40% less than in pre-crisis times. For example, in 2008, the IT budgets of the largest Russian companies averaged $2,700 per employee.

Many IT projects that began before the crisis were not financed in 2009, but continued to develop in 2010, Vladimir Filippov, vice president of VimpelCom for IT, reported through the press service. Therefore, it is more correct to compare 2010 not with the previous one, but with 2008, he believes. During the crisis, many projects were frozen, therefore, in absolute terms, the IT costs of 2010 will be significantly higher than last year, agrees MTS spokeswoman Irina Osadchaya.

In October 2010, IDC analysts predicted that sales of IT products and services in Russia would increase by 17.3% in 2010. But IDC calculations also included IT spending by private users and budget structures. In addition, unlike GlobalCIO, IDC interviewed IT suppliers who tend to be optimistic about market prospects, explains Konstantin Zimin, editor-in-chief of the GlobalCIO portal. He estimates the error of his study at 5-6 pp.

According to Filippov, Russian IT budgets have not yet reached pre-crisis levels, and their growth rate is average between IDC and GlobalCIO estimates. And Osadchaya believes the IDC score is closer to reality.

However, in the near future, the union of IT directors is optimistic. According to the study, 1.5-3 times more companies plan to introduce new IT systems in 2010-2011 than in 2009, and plans for the development of already implemented systems are 1.5-2 times higher than in 2009.

2009

On January 13, 2010, at a meeting with journalists, Minister of Communications Igor Shchegolev announced an 8% decrease in the revenue of IT companies in 2009 compared to 2008 ^[38].

In February 2010, Alexander Narukavnikov, Director of the Department of Economics and Finance of the Ministry of Communications, said that according to the results of 2009, the volume of the IT market in Russia amounted to 500 billion rubles, 28% of the total revenue of the ICT industry.

In 2008, the ministry expected a significant growth in the IT market, believing that it would be 32.8%. The fulfillment of this forecast would allow the Russian IT industry to earn 770 billion rubles. compared to 580 billion rubles. in 2008. In fact, instead of growing, the market showed a drop of 80 billion rubles. Thus, in percentage terms compared to 2008, the decline was about 13.8%.

In early 2010, Minister of Communications Igor Shchegolev called last year's forecast of the department a "technical mistake." He also stated that the fall in revenues of IT companies in 2009 compared to 2008 was 8%.

In early February 2010, the Ministry of Economic Development gave a similar calculation of the results of the IT industry. According to the preliminary estimate of this department, the volume of the IT market amounted to 496.5 billion rubles, 87% of the 2008 level in comparable prices.

In February 2010, the Ministry of Economic Development provided data on the structure of revenues in the IT market by segments:

• hardware - 51.4%,
• software - 20%,
• services - 28.6%^[39]

According to IDC, the main volume of the Russian market in 2009 falls on home users; enterprises of transport, communications, power and housing and communal services; as well as authorities, education and health care institutions.

2008

According to preliminary data IDC , the growth of sales IT services and products to Russian corporate clients slowed down to 10.5% from about 35% a year earlier.

^[40]

Notes