Industrial production in Russia

Main article: Russian economy

Value for the economy

Main article: Industrial production

As economist Danios Rodrik noted in 2017, industrial production has some specific features that make it the most important driver of economic development.

Industries

• Petroleum products in Russia

• Non-ferrous metals (Russian market)

• Alcoholic beverages (Russian market)

• Fishing industry of Russia

• Food industry in Russia

• Jewelry industry of Russia

Power

• Power in Russia
• Nuclear Power Engineering
• Alternative power
• Solar Power (Global Market)
• Wind Power and Wind Power Plants (Russia and the World)

Mechanical engineering

• Car production in Russia
• Aviation industry of Russia
• Machine tools in Russia

Salaries in industry

Main article: Salaries in Russian industry

2023

Kamchatka and Chuvashia became leaders in the growth of industrial production in Russia

Kamchatka, Chuvashia Sakhalin Oblast and became the leaders in the growth of industrial production in. In Russia 2023, these regions recorded an increase in the corresponding indices by 29.5%, 27.2% and 17.4%, respectively. This is evidenced by data Rosstat published in early February 2024.

As RBC writes with reference to the materials of the department, out of 85 regions, 21 showed negative dynamics of production growth, most of all - Primorsky Krai (-11.6%). With all-Russian industry growth of 3.5% in 2023, all regions included in the top 10 in terms of growth dynamics, including Kamchatka Territory, Chuvashia, Ingushetia, Kurgan Region, Moscow, Bryansk Region, Tula Region, Dagestan, Mari El and Penza Region, showed growth exceeding 14% or more.

The publication of the publication notes that Moscow and the Moscow region provided more than half of the growth in the manufacturing industry. In the capital, the manufacturing sector at the end of 2023 increased output by 18.5%, in the region - by 15.6%.

In the Sverdlovsk region, processing increased by 12%. The largest growth was shown by the repair of machinery and equipment (+ 67.4%), the production of furniture (+ 31.5%), the production of other machinery and equipment (+ 31.1%). In the Chelyabinsk region, the production of computers, electronics, optics and finished metal products has increased by more than 50%.

Commenting on Chuvashia's hits in the top regions in terms of industrial production growth, Elena Anisimova, head of the ACRA regional ratings group, noted that the production of chemical products, vehicles, finished metal products, as well as computers, electronic and optical products is increasing the most. And in the Kamchatka Territory, the main types of industry are the extraction of noble metals and the production of food products, she added.^[1]

Growth by 3.5%, which is 5 times more than in the previous year

in Industrial production Russia began to grow 5 times faster: if in 2022 it increased by 0.7%, then in 2023 - by 3.5%. This is evidenced by data Rosstat published on January 31, 2024. Growth by 4.1% to 2021 and + 8.4% to 2019

According to the department, the strongest growth in production in 2023 was shown by industries associated with the production of computers and peripherals - by 32.8%, finished metal products (except machinery and equipment) - by 27.8%, production of other vehicles (including aviation equipment, shipbuilding, etc.) - by 25.5%, furniture production - by 20.7%, production of electrical equipment - by 19.0%, production of vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers - by 13.6%, with leather production and leather products production - by 12.3%.

Industrial production in Russia began to grow 5 times faster

At the same time, in 2023, the volume of production of tobacco products decreased - by 10.2%, the production of paper and paper products - by 1.4%, the processing of wood and the production of wood products - by 0.2%.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the main positive contribution to the dynamics of industrial production in 2023 was made by the output of the manufacturing industry, the growth of which reached 7.5%, which turned out to be higher than expected. The provision of electricity, gas and steam increased by a symbolic 0.2%, while mining and water supply, on the contrary, decreased by 1.3 and 2.5%, RBC reports.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation noted that in general, the industrial production index in manufacturing industries in 2023 showed positive dynamics, which indicates the adaptation of industry to the current macroeconomic conditions and the continuation of post-recovery growth.

2023 demonstrates post-recovery growth, while 2024 will serve as the basis for structural restructuring of the economy, transformation of priority areas and the formation of the foundations for the development of new industries, the department emphasized.[2]

Record rise in business activity in the manufacturing sector since 2017 in September

S&P Global PMI: The manufacturing PMI stood at Russia 54.5 in September 2023, up from 52.7 in August 2023, marking the sharpest improvement in operating conditions since January 2017. The growth was supported by the acceleration of production growth and the fastest growth in new orders since January 2017.

Mishustin approved an updated strategy for the development of the manufacturing industry

The Russian government has approved an updated strategy for the development of the manufacturing industry in Russia. The press service of the Cabinet of Ministers announced this on September 12, 2023. By this time, the document signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has not yet been published, but some of its points have been named.

In particular, according to the government, the document includes the following goals: an increase in the share of manufacturing industry in the structure of gross domestic product to 15.45% over 12 years, an increase in the index of manufacturing industries by 55% compared to the baseline 2019, an increase in the number of companies engaged in technological innovations from 28 to 45%, doubling the physical volume of investments and labor productivity in the industry.

It is noted that the updated strategy was developed with the participation of industry associations, the scientific community, curators of industry in the regions. It provides for the solution of a whole range of tasks in priority areas, which were determined following the results of the strategic session "Industrial Development," held at the Government Coordination Center in May 2023. Among them - creating conditions for launching a new investment cycle in all sectors, increasing the innovative potential of industrial enterprises, stimulating demand for domestic products, developing the industrial potential of the regions, solving the personnel issue.

Taking into account the priority tasks, the plans and prospects in the sectoral context were detailed. The strategy also includes new sections on specialized engineering, mechanical engineering for the food and processing industries, environmental engineering, hydrogen, electrical and cable industries.

The document also reflected the tasks of digital transformation of the industry. Among the announced plans are the creation of an effective infrastructure and system for supporting the introduction of Russian software and hardware systems, the formation of a new employment model that takes into account the further development of automation and robotization of industry, the Cabinet said in a statement.^[3]

Capacity utilization of Russian enterprises reached a record 80.9%

In the second quarter of 2023, the capacity utilization of Russian enterprises reached a record 80.9%. This was reported in July 2023 by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. As the regulator noted, the growth in investment activity of enterprises was accompanied by a further increase in the utilization of production capacities.

In particular, record levels, according to the Central Bank, reached loading in mining (82.6%), manufacturing (75.6%) and construction (77.7%). Similar data from monthly market surveys of enterprises are provided by the Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (IEP). According to the results of two quarters of 2023, the average capacity utilization was 76.7%. This year's level is the highest in the history of polls since 1993. From the IEP data it follows that the leaders in the loading of steel for the production of paper and paper products - 83.6%, textiles and clothing - 81.5%. Economists recorded the lowest indicators in the production of chemicals and chemical products - 67%; rubber and plastic products - 67.2%.

According to the Central Bank, enterprises continued to increase capacity and modernized production in the context of reorientation to domestic demand, activation of import substitution programs. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, estimates of changes in investment activity in the second quarter improved and reached their highest since 2009.

Investment activity expanded in almost all major activities, most actively in motor vehicle trade, mining and manufacturing. At the same time, in a number of industries - in manufacturing, construction and services - investment activity at highs since 2017, - explained in the Bank of Russia.[4]

The Ministry of Industry and Trade returned to Rosstandart quality control of industrial products

On June 23, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade submitted amendments to a number of laws introducing a new type of state control - compliance with mandatory requirements for industrial products. Read more here.

Record manufacturing growth in May

Strong data on industrial production in Russia, which in May 2023 increased by 7% YoY, and the point is not only in the effect of the base of last year, when the local bottom of production was being formed.

May 2023 became the best in the modern history of Russia in comparison with the same month in any year until 2023, at least since the collapse of the USSR and the transition to a new calculation methodology.

Manufacturing grew by 12.6% YoY, plus 8.3% by May 2021 and a significant increase of 17.6% by May 2019.

In January-May 2023, an increase of 4.6% YoY, plus 6% by 2021 and a tangible increase of 15.3% by 2019.

At the moment, a V-shaped trajectory of recovery of processing production is recorded, where the main generating positive impulse was obtained in early 2023. In December 2022, processing was minus 5.9% y/y, then minus 2.5%, minus 1.3%, while in March it reached plus 6.1%, 7.8% in April and an increase of 12.6% y/y in May 2023.

Over the past 12 months, processing has not yet reached the historical maximum set in February 2022 (it is still necessary to grow by 0.6%), but the monthly dynamics with the elimination of the seasonal effect is already at its maximum, Spydell Finance wrote.

In comparison with 2019, in January-May 2023, growth of over 20% in the following industries:

• Textile production - 21.5%
• Provision of services in the field of mineral extraction - minerals 23.5%
• Production of machinery and equipment not included in other groupings - 24.8%
• Production of electrical equipment - 26%
• Production of rubber and plastic products - 27.8%
• Production of other vehicles and equipment (here armored vehicles) - 35.9%
• Furniture production - 48.7%
• Production of medicinal products and materials used for medical purposes - 58.8%
• Production of finished metal products, except machinery and equipment (here ammunition) - 67.4%
• Production of computers, electronic and optical products (electronics for IPC) - 72.3% due to low base.

The main growth driver is the military-industrial complex, which began to reach "tangible" capacity in 2023.

The growth of industry amid the rise of the military-industrial complex during the conflict in Ukraine

Relative to the previous maximum in May 2021, industrial production in May 2023 increased by 4.2%, and in comparison with May 2019 - an increase of 8.5%. In January-May 2023, an increase of 1.7%, compared with January-May 2021, an increase of 3.7% and a significant increase of 7% to the first five months of 2019.

According to Rosstat - in January-May 2023, the best start of the year for the entire period of statistics was shown. Such a positive result is fully provided by the manufacturing industry.

Industrial production in Russia in April 2023 increased by 5.1% over the year due to the base effect of April 2022 (at that time the industry was the main blow), in January-April 2023 an increase of 0.6%, and in relation to April 2021 an increase of 2.1%, i.e. April 2023 - the best in history. Over 4 years, the industry has grown by 6.2%, overcoming the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis and the sanctions strike in 2022.

The main growth trigger is concentrated in the state defense order, while the other industry integrally balances at zero, if we estimate the dynamics over two years or over four years.

Industrial production in March 2023 rose 1.2% from the previous year, well ahead of the expected 1.4% decline in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Industries associated with the military sector are showing double-digit production growth amid rising costs due to the conflict in Ukraine.

2022

The level of innovative activity in high-tech industries in Russia reached 42.7%

The Institute for Statistical Research and Knowledge Economics of the Higher School of Economics analyzed key indicators characterizing the state and dynamics of innovative activities in high-tech industries in Russia (production of medicines and materials; computers, electronic and optical products; aircraft and spacecraft). HSE representatives shared the results of the work with TAdviser on January 10, 2024.

According to analysts at ISIEZ HSE, over the past years, high-tech industries have occupied a leading position in terms of the intensity of innovative activity. Their development is one of the priority tasks of achieving the country's technological sovereignty, provided for by the Concept of Technological Development for the period up to 2030.

At the end of 2022, the level of innovative activity in high-tech industries reached 42.7%, which is more than twice the average for manufacturing (20.7%) and almost three times - for industrial production as a whole (15.6%). The most active innovative activities are carried out by manufacturers of aircraft and spacecraft (51.1%), as well as computers, electronic and optical products (48.4%) (Table 1). A slightly lower indicator in pharmaceuticals (24.6%), where there is high competition from imported products along with relative passivity in the field of introducing innovative developments.

In 2022, the trend of recent years to increase the absolute amount of costs for innovative activities in the high-tech sector continued. According to the ISIEZ HSE, investments in innovation for the first time exceeded 250 billion rubles (in prices for January 2024), of which almost half (48.7%, or 122.7 billion rubles) are accounted for by aircraft and spacecraft manufacturers.

The intensity of costs for innovative activities (i.e. their share in the total sales volume) in high-tech industries as a whole amounted to 7% (against 2.1% in the manufacturing industry). The maximum value of the indicator was recorded in the production of aircraft and spacecraft (13%).

According to analysts, the observed positive trends are largely related to the active state support of high-tech industries, in particular, through the implementation of projects to accelerate import substitution and achieve technological sovereignty. countries So, in 2022, over a third of the costs of innovation here at the were financed expense of budgetary funds (34.2%); in the production of computers, aircraft and spacecraft - about 40%. In manufacturing industries as a whole, the corresponding value of the indicator is twice as low (Chart 1). The main source of financing innovation traditionally remains the own funds of organizations (61.2% in high-tech sectors and 64.3% in manufacturing).

Advantages that reflect the significant scientific and innovative potential of high-tech industries include a focus on research and development. Over a third (36.9%) of organizations had research and development, design divisions (in the manufacturing industry - 13.8%), and this indicator has been growing steadily over the past years. In the structure of costs for innovative activities, the share of research and development costs reaches 68.1%, while only 13.3% of funds are spent on the purchase of machinery and equipment. For comparison, in manufacturing, these indicators are practically equal (37.8 and 39.1%, respectively), while in industry, on the whole, expenses for the purchase of fixed assets prevail (Chart 2), the HSE Research Institute noted.

Organizations of high-tech industries as a whole are mainly aimed at implementing product innovations related to the introduction of new or significantly improved goods and services - the share of their costs in the total costs of innovative activities reaches 79.2%. Among manufacturers of aircraft and spacecraft, the demand for products of which is steadily high, the indicator is even greater - about 90%. On the contrary, the priorities of pharmaceutical companies are shifted towards process innovations aimed at improving production efficiency, and not on the development and implementation of new products.

The output of innovative products in high-tech industries in 2022 reached 677.5 billion rubles, or 18.9% of total sales (in the manufacturing industry - 7%). In organizations engaged in the production of aircraft and spacecraft, computers, electronic and optical products, more than a fourth to a fifth (28.1 and 22%, respectively) of the shipped products is innovative. The indicator in pharmaceuticals, which is difficult to withstand competition with imports, is noticeably lower - the share of products based on new and improved technologies here is only 5.7%.

The concentration of resources on financing product innovations is also reflected in the high level of novelty of manufactured goods, works, services. Thus, in 2022, more than two-thirds (69.9%) of innovative products of high-tech industries accounted for newly introduced or subjected to significant technological changes. The rest is occupied by products that have been improved - already produced in organizations, but in respect of which new or technologically improved methods of production or transmission have been used, the HSE National Research Institute for Research and Technology told.

In general, as analysts concluded, organizations of high-tech industries are noticeably distinguished by all key characteristics of innovative development: they are distinguished by the presence of their own research base that ensures the susceptibility of production to innovations, high innovation activity comparable to the level of countries - technological leaders, a consistent increase in investment in innovations, including intensive public support of the sector, as well as noticeable effectiveness of innovation activities.

The prospects for further development are seen in an increase in the level of market novelty and competitiveness of innovative products, which can become a significant factor in ensuring the technological independence of the Russian economy, - added[5] of[6] Industries to the Higher[7] Economics].

Decline of only 0.6% after the imposition of sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine

By the end of 2022, the Russian industry decreased by only 0.6%, Rosstat said. The maximum decrease was expected to be shown by the production of cars and household appliances.

Industrial production in Russia in July 2022 slowed the decline in annual terms to 0.5%.

Russia's industrial sector has recorded its smallest contraction in four months, the latest sign of the economy's adaptation to the massive sanctions imposed by the US and its allies following the launch of Russia's special operation in Ukraine.

FRP launched a special program for the development of industrial enterprises in conditions of economic restrictions

The Supervisory Board of the Industrial Development Fund approved a special program for the development of industrial enterprises in the context of economic restrictions "Formation of a component and resource base." This became known in early April 2022.

Under this program, preferential loan financing is provided to manufacturers of import-substituting products for the purchase of critical components, materials, raw materials, spare parts and accessories, the production of which is limited or absent in Russia.

We will provide additional support to manufacturers of import-substituting products. Now enterprises will be able to receive loans of up to 500 million rubles at 5% per annum for the purchase of raw materials, components and spare parts under the program "Formation of a component and resource base." We will also capitalize on the FRP by 20 billion rubles so that enterprises get additional opportunities to use its preferential financing programs, "said Denis Manturov, Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Head of the Supervisory Board of the FRP.

The loan amount under the updated program ranges from 10 to 500 million rubles for a period of 3 years at 5% per annum, co-financing is not required. Enterprises will be able to receive loans for the purchase of raw materials, components and spare parts used as part of the products listed in the appendix to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of July 17, 2015 No. 719 "On Confirmation of the Production of Industrial Products on the Territory of the Russian Federation." Thus, the new program will increase the level of localization of final products produced in Russia. Compliance of the project products with the program priorities must be confirmed by the industry department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia.

The program has a number of benefits in terms of securing loans. Financially sustainable companies only require the surety of the beneficiary and CEO as security. At the same time, financially stable state corporations and PJSCs whose shares are traded on the stock exchange are not required. The rest of the companies provide loans in accordance with the FRP standards (bank guarantees, ВЭБ.РФ guarantees, PJSC, SME Corporation or pledge of real estate, equipment, etc.).

2020

Reduction of railcar production in the Russian Federation by 29%, to 56.2 thousand units, manufacturer rating - Infoline

The production of wagons in Russia in 2020 decreased by 28.7% compared to 2019 and amounted to 56.2 thousand units. This is evidenced by data from analysts Infoline. Read more here.

Rosstat registered the first decline in Russian industry in 11 years

Rosstat at the end of 2020 registered the first decline in Russian industry in 11 years. The decline in industrial production amounted to 2.9%, which is better than the forecasts of the Government of the Russian Federation (-4.1%) and IHS Markit analysts (-5.1%).

Mineral production minerals decreased by 7%. Crude oil and gas production and sank 10.3%, which was largely due to the OPEC + agreement to reduce energy production.

Also in Russia, industries fell that provide water supply and sanitation, waste collection and disposal, as well as the elimination of pollution - by 3.8%. The decline in electrical and thermal power was measured at 2.5%. Production of coke and petroleum products decreased by 3%.

In addition, such areas as the extraction of non-metallic minerals, including sand and gravel, fell significantly - by 15.4%, the production of vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers - by 12.7%, the leather industry - by 12.4%. The maximum growth for the year was shown by the production of drugs and medical materials (by 23%), textiles (by 8.9%) and chemical production (by 7.2%). Manufacturing as a whole grew 0.3% in 2020.

The last time the output of industrial products in Russia decreased at the end of 2009, then it fell by 10.7%. Industry accounts for about 30% of Russian GDP, RBC notes, citing statistics for 2019.

The decline recorded in 2020 in most industries is not critical, the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade told the publication. They also noted that this happened, among other things, thanks to the implementation of the government program of anti-crisis measures. In addition, in the context of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, industrial enterprises turned out to be much more stable in the service sector, the ministry said.^[8]

1.6 trillion rubles will finance the state program for the development of industry until 2023

1.6 trillion rubles will finance the state program for the development of industry until 2023, RBC reports in September 2020.

In 2021, it is planned to allocate 478 billion rubles for these purposes, in 2022 - 551 billion rubles, in 2023 - 568 billion rubles. At the same time, it is planned to allocate 332 billion rubles in 2021 for the development of the automotive industry, 342 billion rubles in 2022 and 365 billion rubles in 2023.

Over the next three years, 75.5 billion rubles will be spent on the state program for the development of the aviation industry annually. 9.7 billion rubles will be allocated for the state program for the development of the electronic and radio-electronic industry in 2021-2023.

Industrial production crash in May by 9.6% due to oil production restrictions under OPEC + deal

In May 2020, industrial output in annual terms fell by 9.6%, exceeding expectations and becoming the highest since October 2009. The main reason for the deepening decline was the restrictions on oil production under the OPEC + deal against the background of overstocking the global market amid the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

2019

Rosstat revised growth data for two years

Rosstat revised the statistics on industrial production in Russia over the past two years and found out that the volume of production of goods and production of raw materials in the country grew faster than initially expected.

According to a new estimate, in a short period - in the fourth quarter of 2018 - the Russian industry reached growth rates comparable to those of China, which statistics have not recorded since 2005 - almost 8%. At the beginning of 2019, according to a new estimate, industrial growth reached 5.1%, but by the end of the year it slowed to zero. In total, for the period 2018-19, production volumes increased by 5.9% instead of 5.4% according to initial data.

Industrial production growth by 2.4%

In 2019, industrial production increased by 2.4% (after 2.9% in 2018).

The mining and manufacturing industries contributed approximately equally to the dynamics of industrial production (1.1 pp and 1.2 pp), respectively.

Manufacturing output in 2019 increased by 2.3% (2.6% in 2018). The main drivers of the growth of the manufacturing industry were the food industry, the chemical industry and metallurgy. At the same time, the production of machine-building products at the end of the year showed negative dynamics.

The growth of mineral production during the year showed a downward trend and as a whole at the end of the year amounted to 3.1% (after 4.1% in 2018).

The consistent decline in growth (from 4.7% YoY in 1Q19 to 1.3% YoY in 4Q19 and 1.8% YoY in December) was primarily due to the situation in the oil industry, which was constrained by Russia's fulfillment of its obligations under the OPEC + agreement. As a result, the annual growth rate of crude oil and gas condensate production in Q4 2019 turned into a negative area, and in general, growth for the year was 1.0%.

2017: Production growth of 0.9%

In March 2018, IPEM published monitoring of the state of Russian industry at the end of 2017. According to the institute, in industrial production due to the decline in oil and gas production, there is a significant slowdown in growth, while demand for Russian industrial products was the highest in the last 5 years.

For the third year in a row, the IPEM-production index showed a positive value: at the end of 2017, its growth was 0.9%. Compared to last year, the growth rate was less by 0.7 pp. (in 2016, the index value excluding the contribution of an additional day in the leap year was 1.6%). This year, the indicator was actively growing in the 1st half of the year: in the first 6 months, the value of the IPEM production index was 1.8%. The modest final result is caused by the decline in industrial production observed since September.

The IPEM-demand index on an annualized basis was the highest in the last 5 years. In 2016, for the first time after a prolonged fall, it came in plus, and at the end of 2017, the growth rate of the indicator accelerated 8 times and amounted to 2.4% compared to 2016. During the year, demand dynamics repeated the dynamics of production: growth in the first 8 months (peak value was recorded in August - + 3.5% compared to January-August 2016) and further decline.

The main factor in the slowdown in the indices was the decline in oil and gas production in the last months of 2017. Thus, oil production in September-December 2017 decreased by 2.2% compared to the same period last year. Following the drop in production, exports also declined (-2.4% for September-December 2017). This decline is primarily associated with the fulfillment of obligations under the OPEC + agreement to reduce production and monitor oil exports. The current agreement was extended in November for the whole of 2018.

Gas production at the end of 2017 was also significantly reduced, but in general, its steady growth is recorded over the year (+ 7.9% compared to 2016). This is due to the growth of gas exports to non-CIS countries (+ 6.8%), and in the direction of Europe in 2017 a new record of export supplies was achieved - 193.9 billion cubic meters. m (+ 8.1% vs 2016).

We supported the indicators of the industries ENERGY INDUSTRY and coal production, the growth of which at the end of the year amounted to 6.3% to 407.8 million tons. Export made a key contribution: by the end of the year, coal export loading at the railway for the transport first time in history exceeded loading in domestic traffic, while at once by 13.8% (192.2 million tons against 168.9 million tons).

The increase in demand in low-tech industries at the end of 2017 showed a record value over the past 5 years (+ 6.1% compared to 2016). According to Rosstat, food production for the period January-November 2017 increased by 5.4% compared to the same period last year. Light industry is also growing, with textile production up 7.5% in the 11 months of last year compared to the same period in 2016.

Demand in medium-tech industries also showed strong growth, showing a positive value for the first time in 5 years (+ 1.4% compared to 2016). An important factor in the resumption of growth in this sector was the increase in demand from the largest automobile holdings (AvtoVAZ, KamAZ, etc.) and railway engineering enterprises for ferrous metals. The main points of demand growth can be clearly illustrated on the example of cement, the shipment of which in 2017 on the railway network increased (+ 0.6%), and production decreased (-0.7% in 11 months of 2017). This situation is possible, for example, when demand is generated by large projects with a centralized procurement and supply system through the railway network.

In high-tech industries, the negative dynamics of demand remains: at the end of 2017, the indicator decreased by 7.8% compared to 2016. The decline is significantly less than in 2014 and 2015 (-15.8% and -24.4%, respectively), but higher than in 2016 (-3.2% compared to 2015).

"The slowdown in

industry growth in 2017 compared to 2016 is primarily due to the fact that in 2017 there were practically no resources left for recovery growth, and a significant part of the decline was won back a year ago," explained Yevgeny Rudakov, Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Complex Research Department of IPEM. - In 2018, one of the most important factors determining industrial growth will be the impact of monetary policy. Whether the key rate will continue to decline, and whether this will be followed by a decrease in credit rates for industry - the dynamics of investment in fixed assets and, therefore, the future prospects for industrial and economic growth^[9] depends on^[9].

2016

According to its own estimate, the Rosstat fall in manufacturing production was stopped only by the end of 2016, as a result of which the index coincided with the values ​ ​ of 2015.

At the same time, according to Rosstat, thanks to a significant contribution from certain industries, the index increased by 1.1% compared to last year. Industries such as mining, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water have had a beneficial effect on the average. In particular, 3.4% more coal was extracted from the subsoil in 2016 than in 2015, 2.6% more crude oil and 6.9% more petroleum gas. The main reason for the growth of electricity production by 2% at the end of the year is most often called cold weather, which caused an increase in energy demand.

For other industries, the results were expected. Those sectors that were protected by "anti-sanctions" continued their growth in 2016. In other sectors, at best, it was possible to maintain production at the levels of 2015, and at worst there was a further reduction in indicators.

In the manufacturing sector, mainly light industry enterprises focused on meeting domestic demand showed positive dynamics. Among them: food companies, textile and footwear production sites, the woodworking industry, the chemical industry and the pulp and paper industry, as well as enterprises for the manufacture of cars, furniture, rubber and plastic goods.

The main benchmark for comparison is 2013. Then Russia sanctions have not yet been imposed on the patient, and the course ruble was stable. Since then, the indicator has shown positive dynamics for the first time, but its results are still far from the results of 2013.

2015

Dynamics of industrial production in Russia 2005-2015,%

2014

As of April 2013, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects an increase in industrial production in 2014 of 3.4 percent, while earlier the figure was predicted at 3.7 percent. The forecast for industrial production in 2015 was also lowered from 3.7 to 3.4 percent.

2013

The growth of industrial production in 2013 is expected, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, at the level of two percent (April 2013), while 3.6 percent was previously expected.

First half of 2011: + 5.3 %

Industrial production, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, increased by 5.3% in the first half of 2011.

Russia: GDP and industrial production

Source: Oxford Economics, 2012

Similar forecast in 2011. Schedule

Notes