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2019/03/14 08:30:11

Influence of artificial intelligence technologies on economy and business

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Main article: Artificial intelligence

2019: As 9 technology giants can change the future using AI

At the beginning of March, 2019 the futurist and the director of Future Today institute at New York University Amy Webb submitted the book The Big Nine in which considered potential impact of artificial intelligence and nine technology giants on the future of mankind.

Instead of calling in question the nature of the "conceiving" machines, Webb critically looks at the people standing behind them. It lights "the big nine" of the technology companies: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM and Apple ("G-MAFIA") in the United States and also Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent ("BAT") in China. In the annual trend report in the field of technologies in 2018 Webb emphasized that these nine companies most control cloud computing, researches in the data slicing panes and popular platforms used by developers therefore they will define the future of AI.

Amy Webb urges to create the international alliance for artificial intelligence

Webb considered several scenarios of development of AI within the next 50 years, and considering the power which the companies of "the big nine" have, the provided options of the future do not seem far-fetched. Estimates Webb are based on the analysis of requests for patents, political briefings, an interview and other sources. The ideal future for AI is in what the technology companies work with each other and society for the solution of world problems. Webb represents the marvelous new world in which AI can bring benefit to all people on Earth, for example, using hi-tech medicine. In this scenario as the author assumes, IBM will even be able to save the world from flu and cold. However in the pragmatical and worst scenarios provided Webb, the large technology companies avoid social responsibility and future for benefit of profit.

By consideration of such scenarios Webb recognized that G-MAFIA companies are controlled the capitalist market, and BAT companies serve a will of the Chinese government. Webb pays attention to such alarming signs as inadequate management of personal data of users in the United States and the system of "the social credits" authorized by the state which controls behavior of people in China. If such values triumph, Webb predicts emergence of the digital exclusive systems in which access to your personal data is blocked by operating systems of technology giants, such as Google, Apple and Amazon. Large corporations will be controlled the chief AI managers, and cooperation between government, military and technology leaders will seem a pipe dream.

According to the futurologist Amy Webb, progress does not seem to those who works in the field of AI considerable, but if to look at the events from outside, it is visible that now at the same time there are billions of small changes

However the scenario becomes even worse when Webb passes from consideration of limited AI which can carry out only a certain circle of tasks, to the general AI. In this case, Webb assumes, China will create the system of the general AI which will control the most part of world's population; in the Digital States of America control over the bank account of any person will belong to the Chinese officials. In 50 years when the population of the world exceeds 10 billion and there will be superreasonable AI, China will create a system for extermination of the opponents and will receive everything that remained from world resources.

Webb an appeal to the companies which create the future of mankind completes the book. "The big nine" can leave an oppressive impression at many readers, but it allows to gain an impression how several technology firms are capable to change society in rather short terms.[1]

2018: The companies revaluated artificial intelligence and will be disappointed in it in a year

At the beginning of November, 2018 the Forrester analytical company published two researches in the field of artificial intelligence — "The forecast for 2019: automation" and "The forecast for 2019: artificial intelligence". According to experts, the companies revaluated artificial intelligence and will be disappointed in it in a year.

One of points of researches concerned statistical data which businessmen do not wish to recognize yet: in 2019 up to 10% of the companies will return a human factor to the automated processes, and this trend is substantially caused by restrictions of AI and their understanding.

Analysts of Forrester say that all companies anyway should work with AI and to create an environment in which automation will allow to receive the greatest benefit.

Specialists do not deny achievements of AI – automation really accelerates many processes and often allows to exclude typical human errors. AI much better than the person analyzes huge data arrays and compares objects, than renders the invaluable help at assessment of histologic cuts or roentgenograms of lungs. But when it comes to the relations directly with the person, the picture changes.

The companies, in a pursuit of benefit the implemented AI in the work, realize the cruel truth which is already revealed by sociological researches – automation is useful to business only if helps to pull together you with the client. Replacing the person with artificial intelligence at a stage of help desk or the round-the-clock chat, businessmen risk to fall into disgrace at own clients. The truth is that most of people prefer human contact. We interact with each other already thousands of years and as it appeared, are not too inclined to change this model.

Paid attention to this trend for a long time – for example, the Harvard business school Ryan W. Buell conducted extensive researches on automation since 2008 and came to a conclusion that the clients using only ATMs more rare are satisfied with bank service, than other users. Experience of the company of the international insurance company MetLife which installed automatic system of condolences to relatives of the dead demonstrates that expression of sympathy cannot be trusted machines.

According to Forrester, the main lesson which can be taken from this research is that in most cases people should not be excluded from a cycle of work of AI completely. Automation can be used for market research and acceleration of processes of a customer support, but the direct contact should be performed by people. In the balanced relations between AI and people automation will be applied only as the first line of the answer. It is confirmed by researches: the vast majority of clients will try (and will even prefer) to take care of themselves before asking for the help, but in the latter case they will prefer to communicate with the person. If the enterprise leaves to clients an opportunity to address at any time the experienced representative, then will save effective balance between necessary automation and preserving of contact with people.

Excellent example of such implementation of AI is the algorithm which reveals that the user faced any difficulties, and starts a chat window with the representative of a support service. Other example is automation of collecting and delivery of customer information which allow to acquaint the representative of a support service with a situation and further to personalize a conversation with the client.

Considering the above, demand for automation and AI will hardly fall: Forrester claims that all companies anyway should work with AI and to create an environment in which automation will allow to receive the greatest benefit. However it will be possible only at the correct use of available potential.[2]

2017

AI brought to the companies $700 billion - Gartner

On April 25, 2018 the analytical agency Gartner published the results of a research showing how many the companies in the world earned money thanks to artificial intelligence technologies.

Experts estimated the commercial value of AI systems in the companies representing the different industries. The amount consists of additional revenue, volume of the cut-down expenses and also income gained as a result of quality improvement of customer service thanks to implementation of such technologies.

The forecast for the total revenue of the companies received thanks to artificial intelligence, data of Gartner

So, in 2017 the companies received $692 billion worldwide only because used artificial intelligence. In the 2018th income will grow to $1.2 trillion, and by 2022 the benefit will be measured by nearly $4 trillion, researchers predict.

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The artificial intelligence promises to become the most disruptive class of technologies within 10 years because of achievements in the field of the computing power, volumes, a variety and speed of increase in data and also because of development deep neural networks — the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock says. — The niche solutions allowing will become one of the largest aggregated sources for the products and services using AI for the companies during the period from 2017 to 2022 it is very good to solve a certain problem. Heads will invest in such products received from thousands of highly specialized suppliers offering specific AI-applications.
»

According to the analyst, at first the basic income of business from use of artificial intelligence will arrive due to customer service improvement as the companies already see influence of such technologies on increase and deduction of customers. Besides, the organizations look for possibilities of use of AI for increase in efficiency of business processes to improve decision making and to automate more tasks, Lavlok added.[3]

Gartner: By 2020 AI will become a priority in IT expenses for a third of the companies

In July, 2017 the Gartner company published the forecast concerning use of artificial intelligence technologies (AI) and machine learning according to which by 2020 these technologies will be present practically at all new software products and services. Also specialists believe that by this time AI will become a part of strategy of digital transformation and it will be a priority for investments almost for a third of the companies.[4]

At the same time analysts note that despite all concerns which causes to people of AI, the losses of jobs connected, in particular, with threat it nevertheless quickly gets into all spheres of human activity. According to experts, machine learning technologies can and already significantly supplement human opportunities.

"AI opens great opportunities, but instead of understanding its value, to reveal requirements, to develop potential scenarios of use, most the companies directed to create and promote new products to earn from a wave of interest in it" — the vice president for the researches Gartner Jim Hear said.

At the same time, as emphasized in Gartner, cloud and mobile computing still remains drivers of growth of IT expenses in spite of the fact that the main attention is riveted on such technologies as VR and AI.

Analysts of Gartner predict that the market of the corporate software will grow at high rates concerning other segments of the IT industry. So, if in 2016 sales of software increased by 5.3% (to $326 billion), then in 2017-2018 growth by 7.6% and 8.6% — up to $351 and $381 billion respectively is expected. Researchers explain the growing sales of software with the remaining investments of the companies into analytics, AI, means of work with Big Data and solution SaaS.

Teradata: 80% of the companies already invest in AI, predicting a number of difficulties in the future

According to the results of the research Teradata published at the beginning of October, 2017, the vast majority of the enterprises (80%) invest in artificial intelligence technologies (AI), however every third head considers that for maintenance of competitiveness of his company it is necessary to increase the volume of such investments within the next three years. At the same time, on expectations of the enterprises, on the way of implementation of AI technologies there can be serious obstacles which to overcome introduction of executive position of the Chief specialist on AI technologies, responsible for optimization and coordination of activities for implementation of AI technologies can help.

The companies increase investments into AI

According to survey results, the company are optimistic and expect that their investments into AI technologies will pay off.

The industry of IT, technologies and telecommunications (59%), commercial and professional services (43%) and also services industries of consumers and the sector of financial services (32%) which divided the third place belong to the industries which representatives predict the maximum effect of investments into AI technologies.

Enter into three leading types of activity in which growth of revenue as a result of investments into AI technologies is predicted: development of new products / Researches and Development (50%), consumer service (46%) and also supply and productive activity (42%). The received results will be approved with data on the main directions of investments into AI technologies among which there is a customer service quality (62%), new product development (59%) and production optimization (55%).

Despite high rates of use of AI technologies and the expected effect of their application, the high potential for their further implementation is noted:

  • 80% of respondents note that AI technologies are already used in their organization in this or that form, however 42% indicate existence of great opportunities for their further implementation for all activities.

  • 30% are sure that their organization invests in AI technologies still insufficiently, and for maintenance of competitiveness in the industry it will need to increase the volume of such investments within the next three years.

  • As of October, 2017, the polled companies invest in AI technologies on average $6.47 million the USA in comparison with $8.25 million investments in the Pacific Rim.

A number of factors can complicate implementation of AI technologies

The vast majority of respondents point to a number of the factors interfering implementation of AI technologies and income acquisition from investments into them. As the main obstacles the lack of information and technology infrastructure and the shortage of qualified specialists are called. Thus heads of the enterprises think of influence of AI technologies and automation on morale of personnel much less — only 20% consider it the limiting factor, and their smaller number (19%) are concerned by development of the feasibility statement on implementation of AI technologies.

  • According to 91% of respondents, implementation of AI technologies can be limited a number of factors, the lack of information and technology infrastructure (40%) and the shortage of qualified specialists (34%) are basic of which. Further there are such factors as a lack of money for implementation (30%), the restrictions connected with the established procedures, rules and the rights (28%) and also influence on consumer expectations (23%). For comparison, only 19% call insufficiently developed feasibility statement on implementation of AI technologies as an obstacle, and only 20% think of influence of AI technologies and automation on morale of personnel.

* Expectations of business concerning revenue growth and reduction of costs/increase in efficiency as a result of investments into AI technologies were separated approximately equally — 53% and 47% respectively.

  • Only 28% of respondents consider that in their organization enough qualified specialists for acquisition, creation and implementation of AI technologies.

To what will give demand of AI in the companies

So far for problem solving, connected using AI technologies and development of strategy, directors of information technology (47%) and technical specialists (43%) are attracted. However in the future, according to 62% of respondents, AI will become so demanded for development of strategy for all types of activity that coordination and management of activities for their implementation at the enterprise will require involvement of the chief specialist on AI technologies.

According to forecasts of the companies income for each invested dollar will be $1.99 within the next 5 years and $2.87 within the next 10 years.

The greatest effect is expected in the following industries: the industry of IT, technologies and telecommunications (59%), commercial and professional services (43%), services industry of consumers (32%), the sector of financial services (32%) and also the processing industries and production (31%).

What does it mean

The companies in general predict that AI technologies will become an integral part of our life in this connection in 5 years are going to double the investments into them, and within 10 years — three times. However they understand that for ensuring maximum efficiency of these investments they need to review the ideas of how AI technologies can affect all aspects of their activity and develop the corresponding flexible strategy of increase in efficiency.

About a research

Survey was conducted by research company of the market of Vanson Bourne technologies by request of Teradata corporation. In poll representatives of 260 large organizations performing the of activity worldwide took part.

PwC: AI will increase global GDP by $15.7 trillion

According to results of a research PwC "Artificial intelligence: not miss benefit", in 2030 global GDP will grow by 14%, or by 15.7 trillion dollars USA, in connection with active use of artificial intelligence. On the basis of the detailed analysis of influence of technologies using artificial intelligence (AI) on business authors of the report submit the overview of the economies having premises to extraction of the maximum benefit from AI.

Experts of PwC counted that more than a half of a gain will be caused by performance improvement of work during 2016-2030. Other profit will be got due to increase in consumer demand owing to improvement of goods by means of AI. The greatest economic benefit from AI will be able to take China (GDP gain in 2030 of +26%) and the countries of North America (+14.5%), or 10.7 trillion US dollars — nearly 70% of a gain of world GDP.

  • First in the countries of North America growth rates of performance will exceed like those in China as in these countries the level of readiness for implementation of AI more share of jobs which can be automated is higher.
  • However in 10 years, after a little slower accumulation of necessary technology and expert base, China will outstrip the USA on rates of increase in volumes of performance due to implementation of AI.
  • The countries of Europe and the developed countries of Asia will also receive from implementation of AI essential economic benefits (9-12% of GDP in 2030).
  • In developing countries more modest gain of GDP from implementation of AI (less than 6%) owing to the predicted much less intensive distribution of technologies using AI will be observed (including the countries of Latin America and Africa).

Salesforce: Implementation of AI will increase revenue of world business by $1.1 trillion.

According to results of the research conducted by IDC by request of Salesforce by 2021 the artificial intelligence (AI) will allow business to receive additional revenue in the amount of $1.1 trillion. It will become possible thanks to implementation of algorithms of AI in customer relationship management systems (CRM). Income of commercial structures will grow due to performance improvement of work and cost reduction by automation of production processes. Each of the called factors will increase business revenue by 121 and 265 bln. dollars respectively[5]

By estimates of IDC, AI more than 800 thousand jobs and on 2 million indirectly will directly influence creation. Experts note that this indicator offsets losses of vacancies which could arise because of implementation of AI. It is expected that next year will be key for adaptation of AI technologies — nearly a half (40%) from among the organizations which participated in a research declared determination to implement them in the next two years. In particular, nearly a quarter from their number will adapt machine learning technologies, text analysis — 27%, voice recognition — 30%, the advanced numerical analysis — 31%.

IDC believes that universal expenses on cognitive / II-sistemy, including hardware and the software and also the corresponding services, will increase from 8 bln. dollars in 2016, to 46 bln. dollars in 2020. In the greatest prize from implementation of AI for the considered period there will be USA (596 bln. dollars). Afterwards Japan (91 billion), Germany (62 billion), Great Britain (55 billion) and France (50 billion) will be placed.

Notes