Main article: Robots (robotics)
2019: What to wait from robots in 2020 for
At the beginning of December, 2019 the director of product development in robotic company Realtime Robotics Chris Harlow told what to wait from robots in the 2020th and the next years for.
Harlou noted at once that the industry of robotics endures unknown blossoming. Movable by the growing diversification, the world sector of robotic developments promptly grows so its total cost is already more than $100 billion.
Industrial robots stopped being a prerogative of the heavy industry or huge factories. Collaborative robots who should interact with people in a joint working environment helped to expand the corporate customer base — now she turns on also medium-sized enterprise and even small business, engaged in easy production, processing of materials, product sales, etc.
However Harlou considers that collaborative robots will hardly last in the market long. Certainly, small desktop devices with a limited power allowed industrial automation to be selected out of limits of the large plants and factories. However time of these robots, it seems, comes to an end as they executed the role and should concede to the latest models.
|Demand for robots with a limited power (collaborative robots) already reached a maximum, power limiting reduces functionality and possibilities of use of these robots; the market was saturated — Harlou considers. — By 2025 producers will cease to make investments in the similar systems, and traditional robots will be replaced with more perfect technologies for creation of the complete robotic solution.|
Partially this shift will be caused by the fact that development of traditional industrial robots also does not stand still. Long time these robots were limited to production cells, but thanks to the extending functionality, the advanced systems of computer vision and the most difficult security systems begin to allow them gradually to work together with people.
|Industrial robots will become more profitable and attractive solutions as will program them much easier — Harlou explains. — As robotic automation extends to new industrial sectors, such as logistics and electronic assembly, the possibility of fast programming will purchase the increasing weight and will begin to play a serious role in further implementation of robots to the most different areas. Transition from programming on the basis of scripts to graphically focused programming with application development on the basis of the maximum use of ready modules will become the catalyst of such development.|
Harlou warns that in the medium term regulatory bodies can slow down rates of development of robotics.
|In the 2020th years, - he says, - artificial intelligence technology and machine learning will move from Wild West to more controlled normative and legal environment. Introduction of the legislation, mandatory, will inevitably slow down rates of progress and will influence development of robotics. For example, developers of algorithms of AI and machine learning will have to confirm their security. Such approach will slow down the speed of development of systems of video surveillance which are a basic element of audiovisions of new robots who gradually learn to carry out harder and harder tasks, such as complete set or sorting of sendings.|
All this will constrain rates of development of the industry, however meanwhile the cumulative annual average rate of its growth is about 26%.
2018: The size of the market of household robots — $3.02 billion
In 2018 the amount of the world market of household robots reached $3.02 billion, counted in ResearchAndMarkets research company. Data were published on July 19 the 2019th.
The maintenance expenses and other services connected with functioning of robots entered the specified amount. If not to consider these services, then the market in 2018 is estimated at $2.77 billion. According to the forecast of specialists, by 2024 this revenue will make $9.13 billion, increasing approximately by 22.37% annually.
By estimates of analysts, global deliveries of household robots in 2018 it appeared equal 10.3 million pieces, and to the 2024th shipments will rise up to 41.4 million units. Annual average growth rates of the considered market in kind are predicted at the level of 26.16%.
Robots for house application are able to vacuum a floor, to bring food, to wash windows and to execute other time - and energy-intensive functions. Thanks to technology developments such devices can entrust both standard, and more difficult and creative tasks.
Cleanings of pools in ResearchAndMarkets in robots vacuum cleaners, devices for softening of windows and floors among other things refer to household robots, a grass podstriganiye and also robots partners, assistants and toys.
Experts say that they demand on household robots increase thanks to their practicality and convenience which are reached due to such functions as visualization of premises and determination of zones to which robots should not get. Integration with "clever" voice assistants from Amazon and Google expands functionality of such equipment.
The convenience of using of home robots in a combination to the product demand for automation of household affairs, such as cleaning, is the pacing driving factor of growth of this market, is summarized in a research.
In 2017 in the world over 381 thousand industrial robots for $16.7 billion are sold
The main trends of the world market of robotics selected with specialists of laboratory:
- World investments into robotics achieved record results.
- The competition in the industry of robotics accelerates and becomes more tough.
- The Russian market of robotic solutions is not developed and so far lags behind world indicators.
- Artificial intelligence technologies find more and more broad application in robotics.
- Questions of application of ethics and the right in robotics and artificial intelligence become more relevant.
In the majority of the industries of economically developed countries robots already proved the efficiency that led to increase in global demand for them. By estimates of the International federation of robotics (International Federation of Robotics, IFR), in 2017 sales of industrial robots increased by 31% in comparison with 2016. In total 381,335 robots were sold.
The total amount of the industrial robot market in 2017 was $16.7 billion without the cost of the software. Taking into account the software assessment of the market even higher and makes more than $48 billion. Though final data for 2018 are not provided yet, but, according to the preliminary information obtained by Sberbank from IFR, growth in sales of robots in 2018 made from 1% to 10% in comparison with 2017. Thus, assessment of number of the industrial robots sold in 2018 makes up to 421,000. In spite of the fact that the total number of the robots installed in the world hardly exceeds 2 million units, actively going robotization left a noticeable mark in world economy.
The World Economic Forum (The World Economic Forum, WEF) estimates a share of world production which is already robotized somewhat at 29%.
Distribution of robots will continue, and by 2021 the total quantity of the installed industrial robots will double in comparison with 2019. Increase in demand for robots is followed by reduction in cost on them: the average price for one industrial robot fell from $45,500 in 2016 to less than $44,000 in 2017. At the same time the share of "inexpensive" robots in the total amount of installations in 2017 increased in comparison with previous years. So drama growth of the market of industrial robotics is caused by a number of factors. Main of them — the continuing large-scale upgrade of the Chinese industry: about a third of all world sales of industrial robots is the share of Celestial Empire.
Other factor promoting robotization — application 3D - printings composite materials and other sovrememenny technologies for production of robots who do them cheaper, more available and more qualitative.
One more important factor is significant growth in investments into this industry. According to The Robot Report (TRR), investments into robotics continue to grow in high gear. Total amount of financing according to ten largest transactions in 2018 exceeded $11.5 billion. For comparison, ten largest transactions of 2017 in the amount made $700.6 million (growth more than by 16 times). On an equal basis with investments the number of patents for robotic developments increases. According to the IFI Claims company which is engaged in monitoring and researches in the field of patenting for the last decade the number of the requests connected with robots trebled. China is in the lead in a race of patents — 35% of the submitted applications are the share of it that is twice more than Japan taking the second place.
According to earlier given this IFR, from 2019 to 2021 nearly 1.7 million more devices will be sold. Annually sales can grow on average for 14%. Other research organization, IDC company, gives more optimistic forecast. Their analysts see the size of the market of industrial robotics by 2022 to the exceeding $210 billion taking into account the software. In our opinion, it is not deprived of the bases as gradual reduction of prices of robotics, high demand on products and the continuing increase in investments will become pacing factors of dynamics. There are no premises to the fact that influence of these factors will decrease. Automotive industry and production of electronics consume nearly two thirds of all industrial robots released in the world. It is the share of these industries, as well as in 2018, 33% and 32% of all sales respectively. The automotive industry undergoes big changes and therefore requires more perfect robots. In connection with the program of the European Union for reduction of emissions by 2030 the European car makers plan increase in production of cars with the low level of emissions of a carbon dioxide gas and gradually pass to completely electric transport. All this against the background of high consumer requirements to quality and customization of products. As a result of sale of robots in automotive industry grew in 2017 by 22%.
In the leading countries of the robotic industry — Japan, China, South Korea — production of electronics became the main driver of demand for robotics. 32% of all world deliveries of robots are the share of electronic industry. Demand for robots quickly grows in this industry: in 2017 sales increased by 33% in comparison with 2016.
The industry of metal working though conceded quantitative leadership, but still shows powerful growth rates of the installed robots. According to IFR, in 2017 sales of robots in this industry increased by 55% in comparison with 2016 and reached quantity more than 44,000 units in all subcategories: in production of metals, metal products, industrial equipment. The nuclear industry, shipbuilding, aircraft construction, mineral extraction, agriculture are among the industries which are least covered by robotization. According to IFR, in 2017 only 6055 robots for agriculture and about 300 robots for mineral extraction were around the world sold. Sales informations of robots for the nuclear industry, shipbuilding and aircraft construction do not reveal at all, but, by a rough estimate of IFR, do not exceed 1000 units. The reason of it that robotization of these industries still difficult and expensive at the current level of technologies. For this reason we expect that in these industries disruptive technologies will be created, next big thing in robotics will appear. It is remarkable that these five industries are traditionally strong in Russia. Therefore growth of domestic robotics can be expected in them, consider in Laboratory of robotics Sberbank.
In turn, the growth rate of professional service robotics, according to IFR, in 2017 was 85% that multiply exceeded growth rates of industrial robotics (31%) and world GDP (3.7%). As a result in 2017 109,500 service robots on rendering professional services were around the world sold. According to the experts, in 2018 it was sold for 50% of robots more, than in 2017. As a result market size by 2018 reached $8.7 billion Software to forecasts of experts, from 2019 to 2021 sales of professional service robots will annually increase on average by 21%.
The market of personal service robots also actively grows. So, in 2017 about 2.4 million educational and entertaining (edutainment) robots (12% more, than in 2016) and 6.1 million household robots were sold (is 31% more, than in 2016).
North America dominates in the market of service robots. After it there is Europe — thanks to the growing demand for service robots in defense, medical, construction sectors. The main player in the market of service robotics is the USA — 45% of service robots are produced in America. However Asian producers actively catch up with the leader: in recent years they increased the share from 30% to 43%. At the same time only 12% of all made robots are the share of Europe. According to IFR, all in the world there are 719 key manufacturing companies of service robotics, from them — 155 startups. Despite leadership in the number of the sold service robots, America still concedes to Europe by the number of producers.
In the section of the overview devoted to the market of robotics in Russia, experts analyzed strong and weaknesses of the industry and came to a conclusion that the domestic industry does not use all put potential yet and is before the choice — to catch up with world leaders or to take the lead.
It is possible to study the complete version of the overview according to the link.
About the overview of Sberbank:
Specialists of Laboratory of robotics of Sberbank selected the most perspective technologies which will have an impact on development of robotics in the short term and also traced the fate of startups which were presented in the previous overview. On the basis of all studied data the list of perspective startups with the short description of technology and a business model was made.
In cooperation with leading specialists of Sberbank on machine learning sections on problems of implementation of artificial intelligence were added to the industry of robotics and about the ethic legal issues connected with it.
The volume of the world market exceeded $39 billion — Tractica
By estimates of Tractica analytical company, in 2017 the volume of the world market of robotics was $39.3 billion. Specialists note that the robotic industry continues to undergo considerable structural adjustment. In its framework one of top trends — reduction of the sector of traditional industrial robots and decrease in their share in the market of robotics in general.
Analysts counted that in 2017 robots of nonindustrial appointment provided 70% of consolidated revenues whereas in 2016 this indicator was at the level of 64%. Tractica expects further strengthening of positions of nonindustrial robots. In 2018 their deposit to revenue will increase up to 76%, and market size in general will increase to $52.7 billion.
|Results of the happening shift already begin to be shown. The certificate to they are recent transactions on merge and absorption during which producers of industrial robotics passed under control of players from other industries, including the companies specializing in consumer electronics — the director of research of Tractica Aditya Kaul comments|
Also the expert paid attention that epicenter of robotics is more and more displaced from Europe and Japan to the American Silicon Valley and China where developments in the field of artificial intelligence gain steam.
|AI technologies, such as deep training, computer vision and processing using a natural language (Natural Language Processing, NLP) make this revolution in the development plan for autonomy and capabilities of robots on interaction with users — Kaul added.|
By the most dynamic directions providing the further growth of the market of robotics in Tractica called the robots intended for consumers, corporate clients, health care, the military industry and also unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and autonomous transport.
By 2020 world expenses on robotics will reach 188 billion dollars — IDC
According to the forecast of IDC, by 2020 world expenses on robotics and related services more than will double, having increased to more than 188 bln. dollars from 91.5 bln. dollars in 2016. In addition to expense data on the robotic systems, the system equipment, software, related services and also on spare parts and accessories, the expense forecast on robotics includes data on commercial purchases of drones and spare parts/accessories to them now.
More than a half of all expenses on robotics are provided by the production sphere: 31%, and on a share of continued production — 28% of all world expenses in 2016 fall to the share of discrete production. The picture will remain approximately the same throughout a forecast period, and investments into robotics in these two areas will make nearly 110 bln. dollars in 2020. The main application of robotics in discrete production is assembly, welding and painting, and in continued production — preparation of mixes.
The mining industry (8.0 bln. dollars), the consumer sphere (6.5 bln. dollars) and health care (4.5 bln. dollars) were three main segments of expenses on robotics in 2016 after manufacturing industries. Their mutual provision will remain throughout a forecast period, but by 2020 the consumer sphere will significantly reduce backlog in expenses from the mining industry. Among all-industry expenses on robotics (i.e. identical applications in the different industries) the complete set and packaging in warehouse economy will also be one of the largest segments throughout a five-year forecast period. The most rapid growth of expenses for 2015-2020 will be shown by the consumer sphere, health care and retail.
In terms of technology segments, in 2016 purchases of the robotic systems, including consumer devices, the industrial and servicing robots and also purchases of the accompanying spare parts and accessories, made * more than 40 bln. dollars. Expenses on related services (administration of applications, education and training, implementation of the equipment, system integration and consulting) made * more than 20 bln. dollars in 2016. The most quickly growing segment of expenses on robotics are purchases of drones and spare parts/accessories to them — by 2020 expenses will grow almost to 20 bln. dollars here.
From the geographical point of view, the Pacific Rim (including Japan) will make more than two thirds of all world expenses on robotics throughout a forecast period. The region of EMEA is the second in expenses in 2016 — they made * 14.7 bln. dollars; follows the region of America (12.9 bln. dollars). In the Pacific Rim the total costs of robotics more than will double during the forecast period of 2015-2020, and it will be the most quickly growing region; further the region of America which will outstrip EMEA on the total costs by 2018 follows.
- ↑ Prediction 2020: The future of robotics next year and beyond
- ↑ of Bn Household Robots Market by Offering, Type, Application, and Geography - Global Forecast to 2024 - ResearchAndMarkets.com
- ↑ Robotics Market Restructuring Continues as Non-Industrial Robots Are Poised to Exceed 75 Percent of Total Revenue by the End of 2018
- Robots (robotics)
- Robotics (world market)
- In the industry, medicine, fighting
- Service robots
- Collaborative robot, cobot (Collaborative robot, kobot)
- IoT - IIoT
- Artificial intelligence (AI, Artificial intelligence, AI)
- Artificial intelligence (market of Russia)
- In banks, medicine, radiology
- National Association of Participants of the Market of Robotics (NAPMR)
- Russian association of artificial intelligence
- National center of development of technologies and basic elements of robotics
- The international Center for robotics (IRC) based on NITU MISIS