Trends of world IT market
This article about trends of the world market of information technologies. About the market size and its structure see IT (world market).
10 technologies capable to change the future are called
At the end of February, 2020 the MIT Technology Review magazine published the list from ten technologies which in the next years will be able to change the future.
1. Safe Internet
The Internet on the basis of quantum technologies should provide safe communication. The command of the Delft technology university already builds the network connecting four cities in the Netherlands which cannot just be cracked. Scientists learned to give couples of photons on optical fiber cables so that completely to protect information coded in them. The Chinese command used this technology to construct 2000 km a network backbone between Beijing and Shanghai, but this project partially uses classical components which periodically break quantum communication and create risk of cracking.
2. The hyper personalized medicine
The hyper personalized medicine is the genetic interventions intended for one patient. New classes of drugs can be adapted to genes of the person, and such means will allow to give hope to people with very rare and earlier incurable diseases caused by different mutations of DNA. Unfortunately, so far it is unclear who will be able to finance similar research and development.
3. Digital money
The less normal money is used, the less transactions happen without intermediaries. Meanwhile, the digital currency technology can shake a world financial system. For example, the Chinese leaders see threat in to cryptocurrency Libra which is going to release Facebook — its release can strengthen already disproportional influence USA on a world financial system. Perhaps, China will advance in reply digital yuan at the international level, but anyway, the release of cryptocurrencies becomes a geopolitical event.
4. Medicines against aging
The first anti-aging medicines called by senolitika already began to estimate in public. These drugs do not allow to prolong life yet, but can potentially cure certain diseases, including cancer, heart troubles and dementia, slowing down or turning back fundamental processes of aging. These medicines destroy cages which collect with age — they create inflammation of the low level which suppresses normal mechanisms of cellular recovery and creates a toxic environment for the next cages. Results of the first clinical trials are expected in the second half of 2020.
5. The drugs detected using AI
The output to the market of new medicine costs an average of about $2.5 billion. One of the reasons of such cost — complexity of search of perspective molecules. However now instruments of machine learning can investigate big databases of the existing molecules and their properties, using the acquired information for assessment of opportunities of potential drugs. Such approach can significantly accelerate and reduce the price of search of new candidates for medicines.
6. Satellite mega-constellations
Now corporations can create, start and operate at the affordable prices tens of thousands of satellites in an orbit at the same time. The first 120 Starlink satellites were launched in 2019, and the company is going to start batches on 60 satellites each two weeks, since January, 2020. OneWeb will launch more than 30 satellites at the end of 2020. If these plans manage to be performed, thousands of satellites in a tandem will be able soon to provide Internet access even for the poorest and most remote corners of the planet. However collision of several satellites can lead to serious accident and turn an orbit around Earth into a dump.
7. Quantum superiority
Google provided the first proof that the quantum computer exceeds the classical computer. Thus, in the future quantum computers will be able to solve problems with which any classical machine will not cope, for example, to crack modern cryptographic codes or to model exact behavior of molecules to reveal new drugs and materials.
Nevertheless, Google only proved correctness of the concept, now the purpose of the company consists in assembling machines with enough qubits for the solution of useful tasks. It is a difficult task, the more at you qubits, the it is more difficult to support their quantum status.
8. AI of small volume
In search of more powerful algorithms researchers use the increasing amounts of data and computing power and also rely on the centralized cloud services. It limits the speed and confidentiality of the AI applications. However when using AI chips of new generation, devices do not need to transfer information to a cloud any more. Researchers promise to increase computing power at limited physical parameters and also to train and start AI with much smaller costs of energy.
9. Differential confidentiality
Differential confidentiality is a mathematical method which provides confidentiality of a set of the anonymized data by adding of "noise". This method is already used by Apple and Facebook for collecting of cumulative data without identification of specific users. This method allows "distort" pointwise separate data that they could not be connected with the specific person, but allows to save the general indicators of group necessary for statistical calculations.
10. Attribution of climate changes
Obtaining detailed satellite data allows researchers to study the natural systems, and increase in computing power means that they can create more high-precision simulations and make much more virtual experiments. Recently researchers confirmed a climate change role in development of extreme weather conditions and now are ready to tell about risks which the mankind at global warming can face.
IDC: As the coronavirus will help the IT industry
On February 16, 2020 analysts of IDC published a research in which reported that the outbreak of a coronavirus of COVID-19 in China not only undermines world economy, but also is capable to affect favorably development of the ICT industry and opens new business opportunities for developers of information and communication technologies.
In particular, virus epidemic urges on the governments to update the activity, moving towards smart and most modern technologies. It creates opportunities for development of digital platforms and the solutions Big Data.
Also the flash of a kronovirus pushes to creation of the smart cities and parks, promoting decentralization of management of city clusters and, on the contrary, centralization of the certain cities.
Besides, according to specialists, new opportunities for the companies and services offering to employees remote work are created. Approaches and in education change: at mass diseases people will aim at remote education and online courses.
Developers of technologies for shops where the minimum of personnel is used have opportunities for business development or it in everything is absent and also Internet services for delivery of food and telecom operators at construction of a 5G networks and start of services on their basis.
At last, the outbreak of a coronavirus is capable to give a new round of development of robots for their use in management systems for deliveries. Demand for industrial and service robots should grow that, in turn, contributes to the development in China of national strategy under the name China + 1. Within it the authorities and the companies aim to constrain or reduce labor costs, including due to use of technological solutions.
The analyst of IDC Lianfeng Wu recommends to vendors to use fully digital technologies for development of opportunities and habits of remote customer interaction and partners, implementations of effective marketing of online products and services and also proper cost control and use of state support. Working in this direction, investing in the perspective business ideas and innovations, the companies will be able strongly to promote and to earn much after the termination of epidemic, the expert considers.
Despite prospects which for the ICT market are offered by the outbreak of a coronavirus it has a huge negative impact on world economy and China, in particular. So, according to forecasts of IDC, the global difficulties which arose because of COVID-19 will lead to the fact that expenses on information and communication technologies in the People's Republic of China in the first quarter will be cut down 2020 for 10%. For 30% sales of computers and smartphones, will drop by 15% — servers, network equipment and storage systems. Influence on all Celestial Empire will be huge, considering that 37.8% of local economy are the share of digital technologies, analysts consider.
|The flash of COVID-19 will have even more impact on the general economy, than flash of SARS [atypical pneumonia there are comments of TAdviser] in 2003 — the managing director of IDC China Kitty Fok says. — We expect that influence will be considerable in the first quarter, but will gradually decrease next quarters, and according to the results of all year influence on economic growth will be limited. Effects for the Chinese ICT market will also be more essential, than in 2003 as then the role of information and communication technologies was not such as now.|
Gartner: 10 trends which will influence IT infrastructure in 2020
1. Review of strategy of automation
Despite widespread introduction of automation, in many spheres still there is no general strategy of updates. As a result of the company spend funds for duplication of already existing tools and processes that slows down effective scaling of business. It is supposed that by 2025 heads of the companies will invest means not just in automation, and in development of the general industry strategies of its implementation.
2. Hybrid IT infrastructure and trust to disaster recovery
The plans of disaster recovery developed for the traditional systems should be reviewed taking into account new hybrid IT infrastructures, otherwise all organization can appear under blow, analysts warn. Requirements to stability IT infrasturktury should be estimated at design stages, but not be considered only after deployment. Considering that many companies ignore these requirements, by 2021 most of them can have serious problems in connection with transition to hybrid cloud infrastructures.
3. Flexible scaling of DevOps
The vast majority of the organizations which do not use joint platforms of self-service can be found out in 2020 that their initiatives simply are not scaled by DevOps. The general platform allows developers to use all potential of digital instruments with a scaling option.
4. Planning of growth of infrastructure
With growth of popularity of AI and machine learning the organizations should think of how they will dispose of a powerful data stream. It is supposed that by 2022 corporate IT infrastructures will use not traditional data processing centers, but peripheral calculations that will demand special approach to data protection.
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IoT devices should be flexible as certain suppliers will hardly be able to provide to each client the full complete solution. Ekpluatation should be considered at the earliest stages of planning of IoT to offer specific model of service and support in scaling conditions. It will allow to avoid cascade effect of unforeseen breaks in service.
6. The distributed cloud
The distributed clouds (i.e. distribution of public cloud services in the different physical places managed by one provider) will allow the organizations to place public cloud services in the geographical region necessary to them.
7. Experience of immersion
Continuous integration, fast response and lack of a downtime — any more not advantages, but new standards which should correspond. Analysts warn that dissatisfied clients will be able seriously to affect corporate image.
8. Democratization of IT
The visual development approach of applications on the basis of the maximum use of ready modules allows developers of any skill levels to create web and mobile applications with the minimum experience of programming.
Many commands succeeded, providing high-available networks, however often such success is achieved thanks to careful change management. Nevertheless, since 2020, management of networks becomes harder and harder task. The problems connected with prevention of risks and blocking of suppliers mean that the difficult period is necessary to some network commands, analysts warn.
10. Management of hybrid digital infrastructure (HDIM)
With development of hybrid digital infrastructures also the need for their management grows. This task can be facilitated using special instument of HDIM, however analysts warn that you should not trust the suppliers proposing single solution for all problems.
10 trends in IT market in 2020
1. The companies hurry to innovations
By 2023 more than 50% of all expenses on ICT will go for digital transformation and innovations (for comparison, in 2018 this share made 27%). The companies should develop the long-term plan of digital conversions and reveal critical success factors not to lag behind the rest of the world.
2. Use of cloud services
For preserving of competitiveness modern services should work in any place and at any time. By 2022 70% of the enterprises will implement the unified technologies, tools and processes of hybrid/multilink management. The organizations should be prepared, find priority offers on the basis of SaaS, define the corresponding key business indicators and reintegrate all IT infrastructure.
By 2023 more than 50% of corporate infrastructure will be unrolled on peripheral devices, but not in data processing centers (in 2019 the indicator is less than 10%). It is supposed that by 2024 the number of applications with peripheral calculations will grow by 800%. The companies should upgrade the IT infrastructure to keep up to date and also to find new partners.
4. Digital innovation plants
By 2025 nearly two thirds of the enterprises will become software makers. More than 90% of applications will become cloud, 80% of the code will arrive from external sources, and developers will be 1.6 times more, than today. Leaders of business are recommended to make investments in automation systems and to begin to interact with communities of the open source software.
5. Boom of industrial applications
By 2023 more than 500 million digital applications and services will be developed and unrolled using cloud computing. Most of them will be aimed at the industry industry. In process of emergence of new applications and services the new minimum competitive requirements in each industry will form.
6. AI is inevitable
By 2025 90% of new corporate applications will use AI. By 2024 more than 50% of interactions with the user interface will use computer vision, the speech, natural languag processing and functions of the complemented / virtual reality.
7. Growth of trust
By 2023 the most part of the organizations will begin to build up trusted relationships in the field of security, risks, observance of regulatory requirements, confidentiality and ethical business transactions. The trust should become the fundamental concept for the companies that they could remain competitive.
8. Each enterprise is a platform
By 2023 60% of the large companies will be connected with a digital ecosystem of programmers and application developers. A half of these enterprises will gain not less than 20% of income through own digital ecosystem / platform.
9. Cross-industry cooperation
By 2025 20% of revenue growth will fall on offers which integrate digital services from earlier not the connected industries. About 20% of partners will also come from the new industries.
10. Technology wars continue
By 2023 the market is consolidated around a small amount of megaplatforms of cloud services, and five of them will cover not less than 75% of a market share of IaaS and PaaS. Top-10 suppliers of SaaS will gain on average nearly 20% of income from expansion of the services PaaS.
Medvedev: monopolization in the field of IT threatens the peace
The prime minister Russia Dmitry Medvedev, speaking at the business investment summit of Association of the states of Southeast Asia (ASEAN) at the beginning of November, 2019, told about world threat of monopolization in the field of information technologies.
According to Medvedev, the companies and the whole countries strongly depend on the equipment and the software most of which part is made by only several corporations dominating in the market RIA Novosti reports.
|It disturbs both healthy competition, and implementation of the new perspective ideas. Russia supports joint efforts on demonopolization of this sphere, on development of the competition in this sphere, on creation of new solutions and in the field of software products, and in the field of technologies — Medvedev told.|
He noted that high technologies strengthen a social and economic gap between the countries though at the same time open new opportunities.
The head of the Russian Government emphasized that Russia and the partner countries need joint solutions not only on those opportunities which these technologies open, but also on those calls which the states and which are born by the fourth industrial revolution on a global scale face.
|The state which have no own digital platforms can lose if not sovereignty then a huge number of opportunities and in principle — the right to the future in the conditions of the changing world. When there is no own technologies, it turns out that there is no own development also — the prime minister specified, having added that new technological solutions open great opportunities for people, business and the states.|
Forrester submitted the forecast for market development of technologies in 2020
At the end of October, 2019 the Forrester research company submitted the forecast for market development of technologies in 2020.
The integrated, adaptive approach to IT
Technology innovations increase IT value for business, however for reasonable use of new opportunities the companies should undergo reorganization. It is supposed that in the future firms will be guided by adaptive approach to IT which will allow to integrate easily new technologies and to transform them under the influence of the changing priorities.
The companies will double expenses on the strategy of data processing
Though interest in Big Data for the last few years pougas, their influence on development of AI technologies and machine learning is invaluable. However analysts assume that by 2020 the companies should double expenses on data processing to keep afloat. Receiving huge data arrays demands the serious organization and investments without systematic errors, but also, the enterprises limit data exchange because of confidentiality problems. Analysts have all reasons to consider that in 2020 costs for data preparation for AI eventually can even cease to pay back the spent efforts.
Growth of number of hackers racketeers
In 2020 the number of racketeers will increase as malefactors soon will understand what valuable goods information is. Implementation of the new integrating technologies with insufficient protection does the companies by an easy mark for hackers, and the more an information field, the damage is more. Besides, reality such is that it is simpler to malefactors to find a gap in protection, using the AI new technologies and machine learning. Time blocking of data is a fast way to monetization, and malefactors will demand even more often the redemption for return of control over information. Analysts predict that the AI alone technologies which are used for creation of counterfeit audio and video will cost the enterprises more than $250,000.
Automation will change structure of the market of labor power
Analysts consider that automation will change structure of labor market and will lift global economic problems of income distribution and stagnation of the salary. In 2020 automation will allow to replace with robots more than one million jobs. However the quantity of the jobs requiring existence of an intuition, empathy and also physical dexterity and quick mind will grow by 331,500 units. Then that call centers alone will reduce personnel by 40% due to automation, however the remained workers will become more qualified and more highly paid. Unfortunately, not all companies try to train employees for new work in the future, and such relation can turn back accident.
Regulating authorities will actively influence market development
Analysts assume that in 2020 regulating authorities which control exchange of confidential data will begin to affect actively the existing markets and to create new. It is already now noted that many companies do not fulfill the main requirements of the law GDPR: ensuring consent of the client, transparency and control of date leak. Suppliers will be forced to use the anonymized or aggregated data that will change a type of targeted advertizing, and the enterprises should carry out judicial expertize of the supply chains and ecosystems. Regulating authorities will also take measures against the firms using fraudulent schemes of collecting and use of confidential data.
Gartner: Top-10 strategic trends in the field of technologies for 2020
Hyper automation is a complex use of machine learning, ready software and the automation equipment for accomplishment of any work. Hyper automation means not only to the wide range of tools, but also complication of all stages of the automation. Exact assessment and coordination of the automated mechanisms is the main direction of hyper automation.
By 2028 users absolutely to an incha will begin to perceive the digital world and to interact with it. Already now interactive platforms, the virtual, added and mixed reality change a method of perception by people of the digital world. Such combined shift allows to provide as multitouch and multimodal experience of interaction of users with the digital world in the future will look.
Democratization of knowledge
Democratization should provide to users access to technical knowledge (for example, to machine learning, application development) or to knowledge in the field of business (for example, on sales process, the economic analysis) through considerably simplified experience which does not require deep and expensive learning. Thanks to it the people who are not IT specialists will be able to use specialized tools and systems in the work. It is expected that by 2023 there will be four key aspects of democratization, including democratization of work with data and analysts, application development democratization, democratization of design and democratization of knowledge.
Improvement of the person
Transhumanity investigates as technologies can be used for improvement of cognitive and physical properties of the person. Physical improvement can be performed by implantation of technologies or use of wearable devices. Cognitive improvement — at the expense of continuous access to information and the multimodal interface in intellectual spaces.
Transparency and traceability
The transparency and traceability of data are crucial elements in ethically - the verified system which protects confidentiality of its participants. As the organizations develop different methods of ensuring transparency and trust, they should focus on three areas: (1) AI and machine learning; (2) ensuring confidentiality and control over personal data; (3) ethically - the verified design.
Gain of the periphery
When using peripheral calculations data collection and processing obsushchestvltsya as it is possible closer to sources, storages and consumers of this information. Thus the delay at information transfer decreases, possibilities of peripheral devices are used and the big autonomy of users is provided. It is considered that soon peripheral calculations will become the dominating factor practically in all industries. Difficult peripheral devices, including robots, drones, autonomous vehicles and operating systems, will accelerate this transition.
The distributed cloud
The distributed cloud is a distribution of services of a public cloud by different locations while the supplier of a public cloud takes the responsibility for operation, management, updating and development of these services. Use of the distributed cloud marks withdrawal from the centralized model of public cloud services and speaks about approach of a new era in cloud computing.
Autonomous things are physical devices which use AI for automation of the functions which are earlier executed by people. The most recognizable forms of autonomous things are robots, drones, autonomous vehicles and the equipment. In process of distribution of autonomous things it is necessary to expect also transition from autonomous intellectual things to the whole complexes when several devices work together, irrespective of people or with their participation. For example, robots can work in the coordinated build process.
The blockchain is capable to transform all relationship in any industry, providing trust, transparency and safe data exchange in business ecosystems. Potentially it is capable to reduce costs, to reduce terms of transactions and to optimize cash flows. It can be used for tracking of deliveries, management of identification and creation of "smart" contracts. However meanwhile the blockchain cannot be used at the level of koroporation because of a number of technical issues, including bad scalability and compatibility. However analysts advise the organizations to estimate advantages of a blockchain even if they do not expect aggressive implementation of this technology in the short term.
AI and machine learning are widely used for process optimization of human decision making, opening the road for hyper automation and use of autonomous things. However these transformations create new security concerns, increasing quantity of potential points of cyber attacks. Cyber security and risks specialists should focus on three key areas — protection of systems based on AI, use of AI for gain of protection and potential use of AI by malefactors.
TrendForce: 10 main ICT trends for 2020
In the middle of October, 2019 the TrendForce analytical company submitted the forecast of development of the industry of information and communication technologies for 2020. 10 key provisions are given below.
Demand for AI, 5G and automation will allow to be recovered to the world market of semiconductors
The world market of semiconductors in 2019 failed because of effects of trade disputes between the USA and China. Though the forecast for 2020 remains indefinite, it is supposed that recovery of the market will be promoted by demand connected with a 5G, AI and applications on automation.
DRAM will develop in the direction of EUV and DDR5/LPDDR5
DRAM producers actively work on increase in power and decrease in energy consumption, and such modules as EUV and DDR5/LPDDR5 should come out on top. Though products DDR5/LPDDR5 tobko are debuted in the market and should go through a stage of initial acceptance and selection, their advantages over DDR4/LPDDR4 will hardly remain unnoticed.
The range of commercial solutions 5G extends
Large producers and suppliers of telecommunication equipment will implement different hardware and software solutions, competing for a 5G market share. The main attention when developing a network architecture will be paid to Standalone (SA) 5G technologies therefore the growing demand for the equipment of a 5G of New Radio (NR) is very probable.
The 5G smartphones share in the market will exceed 15%
Smartphone manufacturers will be guided by increase in the area and flexibility of the screen, more widespread introduction of sensors of fingerprints, optimization of memory and support of a 5G. It is expected that under the Chinese brands more than 50% of smartphones with support of a 5G will be produced.
Tablets will become a new field of fight between mini-LEDs and OLED
More and more available are conditions of production of more high-class smartphones which increase contrast thanks to mini-LED illumination. It is supposed that iPad 2020 will be at the same time supplied with mini-LED illumination and OLED so tablets can become a new field of fight between mini-LEDs and OLED.
Micro LED can win the industry of displays
More and more producers use Micro LED, but because of the existing restrictions the maximum size of such display is 12 inches. However use of the latest technologies is quite capable to bring Micro LED to the first place in the market of displays.
Growth of implementation 3D - modules on the basis of ToF-solutions will contribute to the development of AR-applications
The modules ToF will become one of the main options for producers of corporate smartphones when developing back cameras of devices. It will allow to expand possibilities of augmented reality (AR) using exact three-dimensional mapping of depth that stimulates demand for AR-applications.
Touch opportunities - a basis of increase in value of IoT
IoT will get more deeply on the different markets of applications and to transform the whole industries, stimulating process optimization and creating additional services. Improvement of touch opportunities will allow intelligent devices to regairovat more adequately on changes in the environment, so, will increase IoT value in general.
Race for commercialization of drones
In 2020 the number of commercial applications for drones will increase, however the cost of their development is rather high, and producers of cars should find new business models which will allow to maintain profitability of developments.
Solar batteries with the standardized cost consign to the past
Development of technologies of solar batteries allowed to depart from standard value assessment on cells. Now producers need to increase efficiency of separate cells and total power of the module, and they cannot set the specific price of the battery in future market. Now the price will depend only on market demand and the offer.
15 key technologies which can change our life - Bank of America of Merrill Lynch
Bank of America of Merrill Lynch was studied by technologies of the future which can change our life and have an impact on the industry with a total cost more than $13 trillion. Results of a research of Bank of America of Merrill Lynch were reported by TAdviser on October 8, 2019.
- Quantum computers could solve problems on which at traditional computers one billion years would leave.
- Speed of loading 6G can exceed 400 Gbps.
- Nanosatellites can provide with the Internet all planet.
- From a subsoil of the ocean it is possible to extract 3 times more cobalt for production of electric vehicles, than from an earth subsoil.
- The decanter (the thinnest and strong material known to the person) can have a set of revolutionary applications.
- The artificial intelligence can be equal to human in 2029.
These are only some of 15 key technologies of this report which can change our life and accelerate influence of global megatrends. In spite of the fact that these technologies look as the ideas of the distant future, they are not so far as we think. The inability to identify them can mean the admission of the next technology revolution.
Rates of transformation of business considerably accelerated; but we expect much more still exponential growth in the next years. Thus, what, apparently, will occur only in 10-15 years can happen much quicker. Increase in number of the data (doubling each 2-3 years), big computing power and more and more active distribution of artificial intelligence (200 billion connected devices by 2025), will lead to rapid implementation of disruptive technologies.
Non-standard solutions are necessary for the solution of the arising problems and calls facing the world. In the next 40 years the planet will need to produce more food, than all peasants and farmers made for the last 8000 years. Such technologies of the next generation as vertical agriculture and the meat which is grown up in laboratory, can be the solution. And the geoengineering can mitigate a problem of global warming at investments less than for 1% of annual global investments in the oil industry. In the closest 10 years of a 5G will not be able to cope with the exponential growth of data transmission. 6G can provide the speed up to 400 times faster, than a 5G. For October, 2019 41% of the planet are still not connected to the Internet. Groupings of satellites can begin to provide broader access by 2021.
| align="center" style="background:#000000;color:white;"|' Тайминг'
|Market potential by 2025 (US$млрд). (forecast of the third parties)
| align="center" style="background:#000000;color:white;"|' CAGR'
|Quantum computers||The machine using qubits to execute calculations it is exponential quicker||5.851||31.6%1|
|Deep-water production||Extraction of cobalt, nickel, etc. from depth of 6000 m and more||2023: startups begin to develop an ocean floor||3.155||37.1%5|
|Nanosatellites||Satellites weighing less than 10 kg will make space and the Internet is more available||Than 2021: the Internet begins to extend with satellites on a low earth orbit||5.203||22.2%3|
|6G||Telecommunication networks of the next generation, are 100 times faster, than a 5G||2028: amounts of data reach the extreme capacity of 5G networks|
|Hyperloop||The high-speed vacuum train for distant passenger traffic||2023: the first commercial service for transportations of hyperloop||4.131||45.2%1 is certified|
|3D bioprinting||3D printing of bodies for transplantation, testing of drugs and research of diseases in vitro||2021: the first clinical trials of elements of a liver and cornea in public||4.324||22.8%4|
|Space tourism||Magnificent tourism in space: trips to the Moon, stay to the ISS and suborbital travel||2023: the first tourist flight around the Moon||1.586||16.3%6|
|Geoengineering||Use of the solutions for decrease in impact on climate change created by the person, for example, catching and storage of a carbon dioxide gas||2021: the report of IPCC (IPCC) with discussion of geoengineering|
|Mass vertical and hothouse agriculture||Increase in food stability due to mass use of commercial city, vertical and hothouse agriculture||10.271||24.4%1|
|Nanotechnologies||Industrial use of materials which are processed on a nanolevel||the 2030th years: implementation of nanorobots in a human body, according to the futurist Ray Kurtsveyl||2.231||11.3%1|
|LiFi||Use of light and bulbs for data transmission||2021: The institute of engineers of electrical equipment and electronics (IEEE) announces the LiFi standard||7.142||71.2%2|
|Behavioural biometrics for security||Use not only static, but also behavioural biometrics for security||3.921||23.6%1|
|A decanter||Use of the thinnest and strong material known to the person, for production of accumulators, electronics, etc.||0.563||38.0%3|
|Nuclear fusion||Use of synthesis of hydrogen for obtaining net energy||2025: the first plasma is received in ITER|
|Technology singularity||Technology innovations which so will accelerate development of AI that the human intelligence will not be able to be in time behind it any more.||2029: Artificial intelligence = human intelligence|
Using forecasts of the third parties about the potential amount of the market, we estimate that total revenue from these 15 key technologies in 2018 made $8.1 billion, and by 2025 will grow to $48.4 billion (at cumulative annual average growth rate (CAGR) of 26%).
LiFi, deep-water production, hyperloop, quantum computers and a decanter has the highest rates of CAGR till 2025. It is expected that in 2025 mass vertical agriculture, LiFi, quantum computers and nanosatellites will have the largest amount of the market.
These technologies can have a blasting or disruptive impact on the settled industries with a total cost of $13 trillion and to make a powerful contribution to the following 10-15-year cycle of development of intellectual technologies.
10 technologies of wireless communication which will define the future of the ICT market — Gartner
At the end of July, 2019 Gartner provided the list of technologies of wireless communication which, according to analytical company, will define the future of the ICT market.
As the president on the researches Gartner Nick Jones specified, it is about 10 wireless technologies and trends which will stimulate development of innovations in such areas as robotics, drones, unmanned vehicles and the medical equipment.
Wi-Fi exists for a long time, and this network technology will remain main for use in houses and offices until the end of 2024, researchers are sure. In addition to simple communications, Wi-Fi will find application in more difficult projects — for example, in a radar equipment or as a component of two-factor authentication systems.
Some operators began to implement networks of fifth generation (5G) in 2019, others — will start their construction in the 2020th. It is expected that on deployment of technology from 5 to 8 years will leave. In certain cases it can add Wi-Fi as is economic for high-speed data transmission on large objects, such as ports, airports and plants. Nick Jones considers that future versions of standard 5G will improve possibilities of use of technology in Internet of Things and systems where the minimum data deference is required.
Normal and unmanned vehicles will interact with each other and road infrastructure, and the V2X technology can provide it. Besides, it will contribute to the development of the new services connected, for example, with security on roads, navigation and entertainments in machines.
|Over time V2X will become obligatory at the legislative level for all new cars — the analyst of Gartner is sure.|
Wireless electricity transmission on long distances
The first attempts producers to implement such technologies did not lead to revolution which they expected. In the future the situation can change, and the market will be captivated by notebooks, monitors and home appliances which receive energy without use of cables.
They proved the energy efficiency when using in Internet of Things. The corresponding modules cost not much therefore producers of the IoT-equipment can use them for creation of miniature, cheap devices with a power supply from accumulators (for example, sensors and trackers).
Wireless sensor network
It represents the distributed self-organizing network of a set of the sensors and actuators integrated among themselves by means of a radio channel. According to Jones, wireless sensor networks have use potential in different spheres — from medical diagnostics before object recognition and interaction with the systems of the "smart" house.
Wireless technologies for high-precision position fix
Monitor finding of an object or people with an accuracy of 1 meter the IEEE 802.11az technology will be able. Besides, such functionality should appear in new versions 5G.
Technology of millimeter waves
It can be used by WiFi - and a 5G systems for high-speed data transmission (for example, 4K-and 8K-video) in a small radius.
The technology of network of back scattering (Backscatter) can send data with very low power consumption. This function does technology ideal for small network devices.
Software-defined radio ( Software Controlled Radio, SCR) transfers the most part of processing of a signal from chips to software, providing support of bigger number of frequencies and protocols. Popularity of SDR will grow in process of emergence of new protocols, are sure of Gartner.
McKinsey: What technologies will change life, business and global economy
In July, 2019 the consulting company McKinsey submitted the report on the technologies capable to change life, business and global economy in the next years, having included in this list the mobile Internet, unmanned vehicles and the advanced genomics.
According to forecasts of analysts, by 2025 potential economic effect of implementation of such technologies will be within $14-33 trillion. This analysis is based on the profound analysis of key potential benefits, including better products and lower prices. The report included the following technology directions:
- mobile Internet;
- Internet of Things;
- cloud computing;
- advanced robotics;
- autonomous vehicles;
- genomics of the next generation;
- new means of accumulation of energy;
- 3D - printing;
- the improved materials and fuel;
- renewable energy sources.
One of the technologies which entered the report is advanced robotics, i.e. robots or robotic tools about AI capable to carry out tasks which were considered as too delicate or uneconomical for automation earlier. So, the robotic surgical systems allow to make operational procedures less invasive, and robotic prosthetics and "exoskeletons" recover the lost functions of patients.
The genomics of the next generation integrates visualization of DNA with quickly developing computing and analytical opportunities. As our understanding of the genomic structure of the person improves, also capability grows to manipulate genes and to improve diagnostics. The genomics of the next generation will offer similar achievements for plants and animals, potentially increasing the agricultural performance of huge regions and also creating new valuable substances, for example, the biodiesel on the basis of bacteria.
Li-ion cells and fuel elements already put electric and hybrid cars and also billions of portable household devices in action. In the forthcoming decade progressive technologies of storage of energy will be able to increase competitiveness of electric vehicles, to deliver the electric power to the remote regions of developing countries and to increase efficiency of power supply system in general, said in the research published in July, 2019.
Potential benefits of the technologies discussed in the report are huge, however if leaders of business and the government passively expect them approach, then will not manage to receive benefit or to react to effects. Business leaders should update constantly the organizational strategy taking into account constantly developing technologies and use them for increase in internal performance. New technologies will allow to create absolutely new products and services, but leaders do not need to be afraid to be beyond old business models.
unprecedented growth of economic growth which was caused by innovations. Calculation of world GDP per capita]]
Politicians can use advanced technologies for the solution of own tasks (for example, by deployment of Internet of Things for infrastructure management). The kind of work will continue to change, and retraining of employees will be required. For the solution of these problems it is possible to use some of new technologies, for example, by creation of the updated training systems using the mobile Internet. The governments will also need to consider new indicators which reflect not only influence of GDP, and such approach will help them to reach balance between stimulation of growth and control of public welfare.
A.T. Kearney: the companies need to get used to an era of "a digital disorder"
The companies should get used to an era of "a digital disorder" of which more and more complex combination of rules of management of digital economy in the conditions of the growing geopolitical competition is characteristic. It is said in the research published by analysts of A.T. Kearney at the end of June, 2019.
According to forecasts of experts, by 2030 there will come the new digital era which maintenance will be defined by a trajectory of development of the global normative and legal environment for technologies and also degree of openness of the Internet.
To help firms to be prepared by next era, A.T. Kearney submitted the scheme of strategic digital transformation and warned that the companies are not able to afford to watch digital revolution passively. They should adapt actively to a present disorder and also prepare for future digital "order" using digital conversions.
Much attention is paid to "technology blow", connected with such key questions as confidentiality of consumers, data protection and anti-competition practice. According to experts, the Mmogy governments aim to pick up such policy to minimize system shortcomings, and these actions directly will affect capability of the companies effectively to use digital technologies in the next years.
This innovation cycle, acceptances and regulations will be approved with the previous waves of technology changes. In a research of A.T. Kearney four scenarios of emergence of a digital order based on two main variables – regulatory activity and development of a digital medium are offered. Among the provided options there is also "a Cold digital War", and "the split Internet. Specialists consider that all options of development of future technologies are possible, and they are already sold in the separate markets by the end of June, 2019.
10 technology trends from Gartner for 2019
In April, 2019 the Gartner analytical company called 10 technology trends for 2019.
1. Self-contained units
Self-contained units use artificial intelligence for solving of tasks, traditionally executed by people. Select five directions of development of self-contained units: robotics, vehicles, drones, home appliances and applications. According to forecasts of experts, development of the AI systems will be defined more and more by interaction of self-contained units.
2. The complemented analytics
The complemented analytics allows to check more hypotheses and by that opens more opportunities for processing and data analysis. The automated reports of the complemented analytics will be embedded in corporate applications to optimize the made decisions and actions of all employees.
3. Application development on the basis of AI
Thanks to new platforms professional application developers will have an opportunity to build in models and functions on the basis of AI the works, without asking for the help the data analysis specialist. At the same time the part of problems of the developer is solved automatically, and development tools evolve from the solution of simple tasks to automation of more difficult activity due to the built-in knowledge in specific data domain.
4. Digital doubles
The digital double is a digital reflection of a real object, process or a system. Certain digital doubles can interact with each other, forming more complex and large systems. Generally they are applied in Internet of Things: provide monitoring of technical condition, point to possible ways of increase in efficiency and are used for development of new technologies and services. It is supposed that digital doubles of the whole companies will become the next step.
5. Gain of peripheral calculations
At peripheral calculations information processing is performed on the devices which are directly using these data for the purpose of localization of traffic and reduction of delays. Analysts consider that the periphery will become more and more intellectual thanks to the built-in sensors which are memorable and computing components on the basis of AI.
6. Technologies with effect of immersion
The added, mixed and virtual reality change a method of perception of the world by the user and create new experience of immersion. Gartner is sure that the multimodal interface will connect people with the digital world via hundreds of peripheral devices, influencing all sense organs and advanced machine "bodies of perception".
The blockchain is potentially capable to lower costs, to reduce terms of payment under transactions and to improve cash flow. The blockchain also opened the road to a set of solutions which are used by its separate elements and advantages though they do not implement model of the decentralized network yet.
8. "Smart" spaces
The "smart" space is a physical or digital medium within which people and information systems interact. "Smart" spaces develop in five key directions: openness, connectivity, coordination, intelligence and scale. The most developed example are the "smart" cities.
9. Digital ethics and confidentiality
The governments toughen the laws concerning digital ethics and privacy, and consumers carefully monitor use of personal information. The enterprises which are not paying attention to this aspect risk to lose clients.
Quantum computers are capable to completely change the personalized medicine, optimization of machine learning and AI, a research of materials and other areas. However by April, 2019 the technology is in embryo.
Top-10 trends in the field of management and data analysis
IDC made key forecasts for Chief information officers on 2019 and the next years
On October 31, 2018 the IDC analytical company published the list of trends which, according to experts, Chief information officers should face in 2019 and the next years. Such heads should be flexible, capable to interaction and focused on results.
IDC expect big changes in a role of CIOs in process of development of own requirements and the strategy of their companies. They aim to rebuild themselves in connection with exponential rates of digital transformation, the report says. The main forecasts for Chief information officers the following:
1. By 2021 70% of Chief information officers owing to some kind of activity will use Agile-interaction by means of API and architecture which connect digital solutions of cloud vendors, system builders, startups, etc.
2. According to forecasts of researchers, by 2021 70% of Chief information officers will actively use data and artificial intelligence in IT transactions, tools and processes. To it they will be pushed by need of expense reduction, improvement of corporate IT flexibility and acceleration of development of innovations.
3. By 2022 65% of the companies the politician of management of the enterprises will charge to the Chief information officers transformation and upgrade to seize the new opportunities and to resist to the new risks created by artificial intelligence, machine learning, confidentiality and ethics in the field of data.
4. 75% of successful digital strategy by 2022 will be constructed by the transformed IT organizations having the upgraded and rationalized infrastructure, applications and architecture of data.
5. By 2020 attraction of 80% of Chief information officers in the structure of the executive management will pay off achievement of key indicators which define efficiency of use of information technologies for performance improvement of business and growth.
6. By 2020 about 60% of Chief information officers will begin to create the systems of trust to digital technologies which go beyond prevention of cyber attacks and allow the companies to be recovered steadily after adverse situations, events and effects.
7. By 2022 75% of Chief information officers who do not shift the organizational duties to authorized groups of development of IT products to promote digital innovations, development of new technologies and scaling of business, will not cope with the tasks.
8. IDC foretell that by 2022 the circle of specialists in the developing technologies will be not less than 30% lower than the global demand, and effective development of skills and deduction of professionals at work will become the differentiating strategy for the companies.
9. By 2021 about 65% of Chief information officers Agile-and DevOps-experts will extend to broader business to reach the speed necessary for development of innovations, accomplishment of tasks and implementation of changes.
10. One more analytical forecast assumes that by 2023 about 70% of heads in information technology field who will not be able to manage the organization of IT structure of the company the strategy and transactions separated between peripheral calculations, operating rooms and information technologies will not sustain a professional race.
In a research it is also noted that in 2014 Chief information officers were "simple children from IT" who worked far at a background. Now such heads are appreciated their capability to introduce a far-sighted strategic look and skills which will be demanded in the future in the company.
Top-10 IT forecasts from IDC
At the end of October, 2018 the IDC analytical company provided a research in which reflected 10 leaders of global trends in development of the IT industry the next years.
1. By 2022 more than 60% of global GDP will arrive from digital technologies and solutions
Those producers which will not be able to digitize the transactions and offers will lose to competitors as the traditional market will soon be a thing of the past.
2. By 2023 75% of all expenses on IT will be connected with development of platforms for promotion of products
More than 90% of all enterprises will create own digital IT environments for further development in the conditions of digital economy. According to the research IDC, nearly a half of the companies declared the "tendency in digital technologies". It means that they prepared for development of digital strategy and architecture which imitate work of the companies which initially constructed business around digital technologies. Such enterprises and the organizations use cloud, Agile and DevOps-experts, digital innovation platforms and communities and also the integrated management data and monetization.
3. By 2022 more than 40% of the cloud organizations will use peripheral calculations (edge computing), and 25% of end devices and systems will execute them using algorithms of artificial intelligence
Peripheral calculations are an optimization method of cloud computing systems by accomplishment of data processing on the network periphery, near a source. It not only increases efficiency of use of applications for calculations and work with data, but also promotes more active implementation of the latest technologies, such as artificial intelligence and 5G communication, analysts note.
4. By 2022 90% of all applications will be based on architecture of microservices which will improve a possibility of development, debugging, updating and use of the third-party code
By 2022 35% of all applied applications will be cloud. According to analysts, in digital economy of the company should offer high-quality applications for satisfaction of business needs. Such conditions lead to transition to so-called "superflexible applications" — konteynery, besserverny calculations and other tekhnologiya which have such parameters as modularity, distribution, permanent renewability and the relation to cloud computing. Integrating such applications with approaches, like Agile and DevOps, the companies can quicker develop innovations, than before.
5. By 2024 the new type of the professional developers creating the code without use of own scripts will increase community of programmers in general by 30%. It will become the additional catalyst of digital transformation.
The new development approach of applications on the basis of the maximum use of ready modules will accelerate digital conversion thanks to involvement of new workers, researchers consider. The growing popularity of the platforms requiring the minimum or absolutely zero completion of the code and also founded on models of building tools will open to the companies access to a new class of the developers capable to create digital solutions more often.
6. From 2018 to 2023 more applications, than for the last 40 years will be created
Thanks to new tools / platforms, a large number of developers, flexible methods and a possibility of reuse of the code for 2018-2023 500 million new applications will be created that exceeds the number of the programs created for the last 40 years.
7. By 2022 25% of public cloud computing will be carried out on processors with the architecture other than x86 (including quantum)
According to forecasts of analysts, the number of scenarios of use of IT will be essential to increase over the years, thereby creating a broad spectrum of specialized IT requirements. For example, requirements to processing of AI algorithms result in need of creation of even more powerful processors, and select the companies vertically focused solution SaaS twice more often in comparison with horizontal applications.
8. By 2024 user interfaces with support of AI and process automation will replace a third of today's screen applications
By 2022 30% of the enterprises will use speech sensing technologies for customer interaction, and AI will be applied even more often as the main user interface to a number of applications and services. Along with automation it will allow to maximize labor productivity of employees.
9. By 2022 50% of servers will begin to cipher all data
More than 50% of warnings of security will be processed by automatic mechanisms based on AI, and 150 million people will receive digital identifiers on the basis of a blockchain. New technologies, such as enciphering, a blockchain, machine learning and analytics, will be used for improvement of security measures.
10. By 2022 on four largest cloud "megaplatforms" 80% of applications will be placed
In the closest years of the enterprise will begin to use actively integrated hybrid and multinodal tools and strategy. The lack of the integrated strategy will lead to suboptimal resource allocation, limited access to technology new products, longer identification and problem solving that the modern companies cannot afford. By 2024 90% of the organizations will use hybrid cloud computing and tools.
Top of 10 forecasts for IT from Gartner
In October, 2018 at the Gartner/ITxpo 2018 conference to Orlando, the State of Florida (USA) analysts of Gartner provided 10 predictions to information technology fields on 2019 and the next years. New technologies which are capable to change the existing business models found reflection in the research report and to lead to creation of new. The task of heads of the IT companies consists in defining need of conversions from the point of view of the clients and to support new digital business models.
1. By 2020 80% of the projects assuming implementation of artificial intelligence technologies will be developed by several talented employees and will actively not be used in the company.
Though AI can provide at any time information in real time at any stage of the project and by that to improve performance of the company, most the organizations prefer to remain at starting positions. To provide break of AI projects, heads should take the responsibility and to support them, having designated as far as they are necessary for business development, said in the report of Gartner.
2. By 2023 the number of the gone people will be reduced by 80% in comparison with 2018 thanks to a sensing technology of persons.
In 2018 sensing technologies of persons began to be used actively in different areas – for example, on the international runs at the airports of the USA. Only several seconds of check, and the personality of the person is confirmed. Gartner considers that this technology will soon find for itself application and in the field of fight against poaching, allowing to find missing of animals whose types are under the threat of extinction, for example, of illegally exported elephants, rhinoceroses and lions. Besides, the similar technology can be used for the analysis of transport containers and packagings which can be damaged in delivery time.
3. By 2023 the access rate in departments of emergency aid of the USA will decrease by 20 million thanks to virtual care of patients with chronic diseases.
The disease which lasts more than 3 months is considered chronic. More than 40% of the population of the developed countries have chronic diseases, and in general 75% of expenses on health care are the share of them. Emergence of virtual assistants on the basis of artificial intelligence will help to change this situation.
4. By 2023 25% of the organizations will demand from employees to sign failure from cyberintimidation, but 70% of these initiatives will fail.
Gartner considers that by 2019 the share of the legal procedures connected with oppressions in a workplace will increase by 44% in comparison with 2017. More attention will begin to be paid to how employees use social networks in a working context and also to use of AI and machine learning for monitoring of cyberintimidation at internal forums of employees. Heads should be ready to stop such cyberintimidations to provide a safe and comfortable working environment.
5. During 2022 75% of the organizations which conduct policy of ensuring sociocultural variety and accounting of specific features of personnel will ensure financial advantage.
Gartner predicts that in 2019 more than 75% of large enterprises will set to themselves the object to provide sociocultural variety of employees for 2020-2022. By 2020 10% of large enterprises will already have strategy for introduction of unevident aspects of a variety (for example, styles and types of thinking).
6. By 2021 75% of the public companies using blockchain technology will suffer because of the law on confidential data protection as almost in all a blockchain systems personal data are anyway used.
Gartner notes that by the end of 2021 more than one billion complaints to non-compliance with the law on confidentiality of data will be shown, and by 2022 more than 75% of the companies connected with commerce or technologies will begin to change internal regulations of confidentiality that they corresponded to the general regulations on personal data protection.
7. By 2023 the regulations about personal data protection will significantly reduce an online business revenue.
New regulations on confidential data protection will significantly reduce application of "cookies" that will affect the personalized advertizing revenues. Gartner foretells that by the end of 2019 income from advertizing of five largest companies on marketing in the field of commerce will drop by 10%.
8. By 2022 fast development of digital technologies will help to transform information opportunities to material products thanks to cloud economy.
"Smart" machines - the future of any production, and the "smart" and interconnected products and platforms capable to transform information opportunities to new services and the corresponding income – the future of the service industry. If producers are going to save the gross profit necessary for further business development, they should refuse transaction income and to create a new business model.
9. In 2022 the companies which perform function of consultants and assistants to digital giants will take 40% of the world market in each industry.
Gartner foretells that by 2022 in the market of information technologies there will be even less firms, than in 2018, and already existing tendency to merger of companies and cooperation specifies in what direction the market develops. The median number of partners of any enterprise grows and will continue to grow – on average from 78 partner companies to 143 by 2020. This trend is caused by the fact that leaders of digital technologies aim to save advantage and to expand the market. Gartner also believes that the considerable role with such development will be played by Internet of Things and analytics, and predicts high growth rates of the market in 2019.
10. In 2021 scandals on social networks and cyber attacks will negatively affect consumer confidence.
As well as many other analytical firms, including Forrester which created the system Zero Trust Security, Gartner predicts mass cyber attacks and leakage of confidential data that will lead to scandals in social networks. Outdated approaches to security cannot protect the company, and numerous gaps in protection which is not capable to cover all possible vulnerable points, allow hackers to influence market events significantly.
10 technologies which will enrich investors
On August 23, 2018 the financial conglomerate Citigroup published a research which authors listed ten main technologies capable to enrich investors and to change the world.
Growth of number of electric vehicles generated demand for the accumulators corresponding by efficiency, and a set of the companies were engaged in developments of the technology capable to compete with the internal combustion engine. According to analysts, solid-state batteries correspond to necessary criteria and have the sufficient potential for development: it is already clear that they exceed normal engines in terms of security, resistance to leak and ignition, relative life expectancy and lack of degradation. Emergence of completely solid-state batteries will allow to charge quicker batteries and longer to hold a charge, and it in turn will accelerate distribution of electric vehicles.
Therapy against aging Scientific achievements allowed scientists to study aging process, and it, in turn, should become the starting platform for anti-aging therapy. Many biotechnology companies, including Unity Biotechnology and Calico (Google subsidiary company), are already engaged in similar developments.
Autonomous transport networks
According to analysts of Citigroup, cars still not completely use the available potential. Thanks to development of artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and general availability of high-speed connection development of the autonomous transport network integrating movement drones became possible. Such network will allow not only to create special pilotless taxi, but also will give an opportunity of "subscription" to use of the car.
With development of AI and machine learning the possibility of the analysis of huge data arrays appeared. The received outputs can be used in different areas: interpretations of results of visualization methods of a research, differential diagnostics, support systems of adoption of medical solutions and many other things.
Dynamic access to a range
Because of the permanent growth of number of wireless devices and development of technologies of wireless communication selection of additional frequency ranges is required, but the limitation of a frequency resource significantly reduces efficiency of such tactics. However this problem can be solved due to use of new technology of dynamic access to a range of the licensed frequencies in which the existing users work – it gives the chance to unlicensed users to get access to a frequency resource on an equal basis with the licensed users.
The organization of professional competitions attracted millions of admirers from around the world who arrived to tournaments according to video games, such as Halo, League of Legends and Fortnite. In process of development of the industry of cybersport analysts expect serious development of a core infrastructure (the wages rise of players, contract signature, sponsorship of colleges, media transactions) which will promote in turn growth of economy in general.
New technologies of communication, especially a 5G, are capable to change a method of interaction of people at work and at home. Thanks to Internet of Things (IoT) and the intercomputer communication (M2M) wireless operators will be able significantly to expand the market of services, and it is considered that global market of IoT will cost already $4-11 trillion by 2025.
Floating wind power plants
According to analysts, at early stages of implementation floating wind power plants need external support from the government, but then they will be repaid. Development of this industry will also allow to advance development of solid-state accumulators and production of turbines.
"Destroyers of the real estate market"
The transparency and different huge speed of financial transactions will nullify the need for intermediaries. Emergence of the specialized electronic systems for selection and sales of houses will soon leave without work of real estate agents.
Clever voice assistants
It is expected that in 2019 20% of operations with the smartphone will be already performed using "clever" assistants, and by 2020 50% of search queries will be carried out on a voice command.
Five IT trends blurring border between the person and machine
Vice president for the researches Gartner Mike J. Walker (Mike J. Walker) notes that heads of the companies in any industry should face promptly developing technologies which will seriously influence interaction with employees, partners and clients. IT heads should study constantly the market, estimate innovations for detection of new business opportunities with a high potential and the strategic importance for the business, the expert considers.
For this purpose researchers annually estimate a cycle of a maturity of technologies within which they select a number of the innovations capable to reach high competitive advantage within the next five-ten years. On the basis of a cycle five new trends in IT who blur border between the person and machine were selected.
First, it "the democratized artificial intelligence" — the movement for general availability of AI technologies. Gartner considers that such technologies as providing the AI platform as services (PaaS), an artificial general intelligence (Artificial General Intelligence), autonomous driving (the 4 and 5 level), independent mobile robots, platforms of virtual interlocutors, deep neural networks, the flying autonomous vehicles, intelligent robots and virtual assistants will become a basis for it. Walker notes that final implementation of some democratized AI technologies, such as deep neuronets and virtual assistants, will happen by 2020-2021. Other technologies, for example, intelligent robots and PaaS will reach a maturity within five-ten years, said in the research published in August of the 2018th.
Secondly, researchers believe that transition from technical infrastructure to digital ecosystems will lay the foundation for new business models which will smooth a gap between people and technologies. This trend depends on the following technologies: a blockchain, digital doubles (Digital Twin), platforms for Internet of Things and graphs of knowledge. The blockchain and IoT are actively used in all spheres, and the majority of other technologies will reach a maturity in five-ten years, researchers consider.
Thirdly, researchers predict approach of a "transhuman" era thanks to biohacking. Biohacking is subdivided into several categories which technologies of increase in opportunities, nutrigenomics and experimental biology are among. However still there is no answer to a question whether society is ready to accept such techniques and how to solve the accompanying ethical problems. Biohacking will be is the cornerstone by the following technologies: biochips, biotechnologies, brain computer interface, technologies of augmented reality and intellectual fabric. According to a cycle of a maturity of technologies, augmented reality already came to the plateau of universal use, and biochips and biotechnologies will follow it within the next five-ten years.
Fourthly, researchers note transparency of new technologies. They will be more and more focused on the person and eventually will be able to provide transparent human relations and the companies. This trend support the following technologies: 4D-printing, the habitat with multimedia and network capabilities, technologies of selfrecovery, intellectual dust, an intellectual working space and 3D - displays.
Fifthly, researchers pay attention to universal distribution of infrastructure. This trend is connected with the following technologies: 5G, carbon nanotubes, deep neuronets, chips of ASIC, neyromorfny equipment and quantum computings. It is expected that these technologies, in particular the 5G and deep neuronets, will reach a pica in the next five years.
The cycle of development of technologies which Gartner describes in the form of a curve changed in 2018 in comparison with the 2017th a little. So, the software-defined cyber security, cognitive calculations, machine learning and commercial drones were gone.
Technology the trends influencing the IT strategy of the companies: vision of Sberbank
Mikhail Hasin, the senior managing director of Sberbank, speaking at the TAdviser SummIT conference on May 30, 2018, shared vision of the technology trends influencing the IT strategy of the companies.
First of all, he pointed to tectonic changes in interaction of the person with the world: phone became now the uniform channel of interaction which is performed within large ecosystems.
Any large ecosystem has no geographical boundaries, Hasin noted, in it millions of clients who are in any hour areas interact. These ecosystems operate with petabytes of data, hundreds and thousands of transactions per second. At the heart of systems – technology platforms to which similar requirements are imposed, namely: Customer Centricity, the open API mechanism, machine learning and automated customer service, data processing in RAM and some other.
Characterizing ecosystems of new generation, the representative of Sberbank selected in them four layers. The first layer – the universal uniform front office identical to all digital channels in terms of client experience, i.e. allowing the client to begin implementation of purchase in one channel, to continue in another and to finish in the third. The second layer – the business logic layer where service is offered to the client. The third – where there are products and services of the players participating in this ecosystem. And the fourth layer – the level of Big Data where there is a storage and all analytics on the basis of which mechanisms of machine learning work.
New development processes and implementations are necessary for creation of such ecosystem of new generation, and in this context transition to the DevOps development environment and the flexible Agile methods is relevant that allows to perform testing and installation of new releases in the automatic mode, Mikhail Hasin noted.
As for artificial intelligence technology, the last years are performed large volumes of investments into machine learning, automatic decision making. For solutions in this sphere, Mikhail Hasin noted, technologies with the open code, and this way are widely used, according to him, - the fastest method of development of new technologies.
Other general trends of information technology development selected with the representative of Sberbank – increase in efficiency, decrease in TCO, dynamic infrastructure, robotization, appearance of engineers, aware of both analytics, and testing, and business processes. As for the key purpose of a financial component of any IT strategy, this reduction in cost of transactions with a growth of transaction loading, Mikhail Hasin emphasized.
In conclusion Hasin predicted further automation, consecutive removal of the person from business processes that, in particular, confirms the forecast of Gartner: in the USA about 80% of professions, the paid less than 20 dollars per hour, will be occupied by robots within the next 7 years.
Top trends from IBM
On March 19, 2018 IBM listed five technologies which in a root change society and the companies. It is about quantum computings, microscopic robots, the objective artificial intelligence (AI), cryptography and a blockchain.
In these directions as believe in IBM, the powerful technology breakthrough will be made, and they will get into all areas of life of people. Such technologies are revolutionary for the computer industry and to bring ADP equipment to the level which nobody ever saw, the study says.
Analysts of IBM consider that by 2023 quantum computings will become a mainstream in the technology industry. They will be widely used by new professional categories and developers for elimination of problems which were considered before as unsolvable. Quantum technologies will be actively studied at the universities and even at high schools.
By 2018 the artificial intelligence became a popular subject in IT market, however explosive demand for it still ahead. Within five years there will be new "impartial" solutions which can be trusted. In this direction IBM works: specialists are engaged in to exclude data which are not free from racial, gender and ideological prejudices from algorithms of training of AI. The company wants to create "objective" artificial intelligence which will not promote distribution of inequality and will allow to make high-quality breakthrough of area of training of AI systems. Besides, IBM developed a method of testing of solutions AI when data are unavailable to training.
The corporation sees importance in miniature robots who it is possible to integrate in one cloud network and to unroll worldwide, for example, to monitor water quality. In IBM thought up the tiny electronic AI systems capable to collect information on movement of plankton that will help to do forecasts on the basis of his behavior and to cope with pollution of the ocean (for example, from oil spills and coastal sources) and also to predict such dangerous phenomenon as red inflow (harmful blossoming of seaweed).
Two more technologies which, according to experts of IBM, in a root change society and the companies are connected with cryptography and a blockchain. In the first case the company means tiny cryptographic "anchors" — some kind of tags which will supply different products. With their help consumers will be able to trace all way of goods — from its production until sale — using a blockchain. It is supposed that such technology will change the fields of business which are closely connected with security of foodstuff, identification of counterfeits and the market of luxury goods.
The second technology in the field — the cryptography on grids which is new approach to creation of encryption algorithms. Such technology has high degree of protection therefore it has high potential of use in systems storing the valuable data. IBM developed a method of a post-quantum cryptography which provides protection against the attacks in which hackers use quantum computers. Thanks to cryptography on grids it is possible it is possible to work with files or to cipher them, without being afraid that important data will fall into hands of malefactors, claim in the company.
|Capability of society to overcome unsolvable problems and unprecedented threats depends on steady achievements in such technologies as artificial intelligence, a blockchain, lattice the cryptography and quantum computings — invested considerable means in all these IBM Research areas — said in the company.|
Top trends from Juniper Research
In December, 2017 the Juniper Research analytical company submitted the forecast for the top technology trends for 2018. In the summary to a research it is said that development of technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain and peripheral calculations, promotes evolution of ecosystems in the different key vertical markets. In 2018 gain of the competition in the field of stream broadcasting and transformation of the market of payments how brands in different the countries and social networks actively master payment systems is expected.
1. Amazon and Facebook acquire the rights to broadcast of important sports events
Appearance of numerous players on video services on a subscription provided adds problems to traditional telecasters. Players, such as Amazon, Netflix, and now and Facebook and Apple, made breakthrough, spending billions of dollars for original programs and aiming to purchase new clients. Some of these companies actively acquire the rights to sports broadcastings that, according to analysts, can become key advantage.
2. Apple, Facebook and Google display in masses payment services in social networks
The advanced nature of applications for social networks and messengers made a revolution in payment services. Availability of payment mechanisms, such as Apple Pay and Android Pay, led to what users of mobile phones trust these services in the financial plan more and more. Juniper considers that 2018 will become year of social payments.
3. AI and a blockchain is implemented in a large number of solutions for insurance and a fitekh
According to Juniper Research, in 2018 the blockchain will be beyond simple banking applications and will get into other areas, such as money transfer, insurance and digital identification. In the same place the artificial intelligence will widely extend.
Experts say that peripheral calculations will be used for fast deployment of the IoT-solution. Their suppliers even more often consider Edge Computing as model of remote monitoring and data processing directly on the IoT-equipment
5. Splash in sensing technologies of persons
Despite criticism of Apple for failure of the fingerprint scanner for benefit of face recognition, there are no doubts that in 2018 there will be much more use of this technology which is beyond far authentication and payments.
6. Growth of investments into robots consultants
According to specialists, robotic consulting services will make break in a fintekha. Programs will play a role of the financial adviser and to execute such duties as asset management, with small intervention of the person or in certain cases in general without it.
7. Machine learning for identification
8. The Chinese payment services storm the western markets
9. "Smart" toys leave in masses
Analysts believe that the 2018th will become year when the training toys with a possibility of programming become popular.
10. Revival of the market of wireless charging
One more trend experts call the growing popularity of wireless charging that will be promoted by support of technology of Apple.
Top trends from IDC
In October, 2017 the IDC analytical company prepared the forecast for the main IT trends for the 2018th and the next years. The senior vice president and the top analyst of IDC Frank Gens shared the list from 10 points during the webinar under the name "IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2018 Predictions".
1. By 2021 not less than 50% of world GDP will be connected with digital technologies, and the further growth of an indicator will be promoted by the products improved at the expense of digital means, production processes and relationship. By 2020 at assessment of investment attractiveness of any enterprises such factors as implementation in the companies of platforms and ecosystems, value of data and degree of the involvement of clients will be considered.
2. By 2020 at 60% of the enterprises will strategies of transition to digital economy which will be realized are developed.
3. By 2021 world expenses on cloud services and infrastructure, including the equipment, software and services for cloud computing, will double and will exceed $530 billion, and more than 90% of all companies will use many services and platforms at once.
4. By 2019 40% of the projects connected with digital transformation will provide use of services on the basis of the artificial intelligence (AI), and by 2021st year the AI elements will be applied in 75% of commercial applications to the enterprises. By the same time of 90% of customer appeals will be processed using chat-bots, and more than 50% of new industrial robots will be allocated with artificial intelligence.
5. By 2021 in corporate applications there will be a shift to "hyper dynamic" (hyper-agile) architecture, and 80% of applications will be developed on cloud platforms using microservices and functions, and over 95% of new microservices will be unrolled in containers.
6. By 2020 cheloveko-computer interfaces will become more various. 25% of exit technical specialists and the same percent of IT employees will use technologies of augmented reality, and almost in half of new mobile applications the main interface will become voice. Besides, 50% of the companies from the rating of Global 2000 focused on work with consumers will use data of biometric sensors for personalisation and improvement of service.
7. Not less than a quarter of the companies from the rating of Global 2000 by 2021 will widely use services of a blockchain for increase in trust to digital technologies. According to forecasts of IDC, by 2020 25% of the leading world banks, nearly 30% of producers and retailers and 20% of the medical organizations will apply a blockchain in the activity.
8. By 2020 90% of large enterprises will gain income from the services connected with providing data (data-as-a-service) and also from sale of the unprocessed and processed data, analytics and recommendations. In 2017 the share of such companies was close only to 50%.
9. In the next three years the simple development tools which are not requiring writing of a program code or requiring it in limited scope that will lead to rapid growth of number of the developers who are not technical specialists will be considerably improved. To the 2021st they will create 20% of applications for business and 30% of new features in applications, and to the 2027th this indicator will increase to 60%.
10. By 2021 more than at 50% of the enterprises on average about a third of interactions within digital services will come from the Global 2000 list by means of own open API ecosystems whereas in 2017 this indicator was almost zero.
Top trends from Gartner
Analysts of Gartner at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2017 conference which took place in October, 2017 in Orlando (USA) submitted the forecast for IT market for 2018 taking into account rapid development of Internet of Things (IoT). According to experts, in the house of the future the coffee machine can learn ideal temperature for cooking of drink according to the photo from the packaging of coffee beans sent by the owner from the smartphone, washers will set the program of washing, scanning labels on clothes, and climate systems will learn to monitor the diagram of the maintenance and to announce independently in service malfunctions.
Specialists formulated ten key trends and briefly characterized each of them.
1. Consumers select visual and voice search
Methods of visual and voice search quickly gain popularity and in the future will become the dominating search mechanisms, consider in Gartner. Analysts recommend to the companies to be trained for change of consumer preferences. By 2021 those brands on which websites support of visual and voice search will be provided will be able to increase revenue from electronic trading by 30%.
2. Self-disintegration of Internet giant
Internet- giants Amazon Apple, Facebook and Google repeatedly destroyed the accepted way in the industry, implementing new solutions, such as chat-bots, dialogue interfaces, mechanisms of visual and voice search. However mega-corporations expanded so that unaffected areas practically did not remain them. Therefore in the future the companies can go on the way of self-disintegration, looking for new opportunities for growth. By 2020 five of seven existing Internet giant voluntarily will select such option, consider in Gartner.
3. Legitimation of cryptocurrencies
4. Growth of distribution of fake news
By 2020 most of inhabitants of developed economies of the world will obtain more unreliable information, than truthful. Follows the companies it will be prepared for such scenario and to develop strategy which would reduce opportunities for undermining authority of their trademarks.
5. Substitution of real events false reality
By 2020 possibilities of artificial intelligence on creation of counterfeited reality ("counterfeit reality"), or, in other words, false content, will exceed capability to distinguish similar falsifications.
6. Approach of bots
By 2021 more than 50% of corporations will annually spend for chat-bots and creation of the programs imitating on the Internet communication with the living person it is more than means, than on development of traditional mobile applications.
7. A universalization instead of specialization
By 2021 various functions will belong to duties of 40% of IT staff of the companies, and their most part will be connected not with technologies, and with business.
8. The artificial intelligence will create more jobs, than will take away
In 2020 implementation of AI technologies will allow to create 2.3 million additional jobs and will lead only 1.8 million jobs to liquidation.
9. IoT in everything
By 2020 technologies of Internet of Things will be present in 95% of the created electronics.
10. Vulnerability of IoT
Up to 2022 a half of all funds allocated for security in the IoT-sphere will leave on elimination of effects of cyberincidents and the return withdrawal of devices, but not on protective measures.
Top trends from Deloitte
In February, 2017 the consulting company Deloitte published the eighth annual status report on technologies in 2017. It received the name "Technology trends of 2017: The mobile enterprise", but, according to the technical director of the company Bill Brigs which he sounded in InformationWeek interview, in the conditions of the process of transition of business to digital economy gaining steam the report it would be possible to call also on another: Feverish enterprise.
In it, in particular, Deliotte selected seven most perspective disruptive technologies:
- "Dark" analytics
- Machine intelligence
- The mixed reality
- Flexible architecture
- Everything As A Service (EaaS, Everything As A Service)
- Nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, quantum computings.
In line one more group of technologies which in the remote perspective will change our idea of IT is nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, complex power generating systems and quantum technologies.
"They only hang on the horizon, but already very soon will begin to change business models of the whole industries" — told Brigs.
Arrival of these disruptive technologies will occupy from three to five years, but when it occurs, the speed with which they will begin to influence the markets, will grow in geometrical progression. At the same time it is necessary to consider that on implementation speed quantum computers or nanotechnologies can outstrip a blockchain. By the way, in the report of 3-year Deloitte mentioned in quality perspective such technologies as AI, robotics and cyber security. As we see, after these years they really became popular.
What gives the grounds to believe that nanomaterials, the synthetic biology, new methods of storage of energy and quantum computings will receive a push to development? Investments. The matter is that each of these technologies attracts a considerable flow of means from investors and just in three-five years there will come the period of their payback. Meanwhile Intel delivers chips based on 14-nanometer technical process, but the industry continues to move to 1-nanometer technical process. It means that computing and network systems will continue to decrease in sizes and to increase power.
Using renewable sources of production of energy, some large companies begin to benefit already now. For example, Tesla will use on the large enterprise Kauai Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC) which is under construction in Hawaii, the lithium-ion accumulator Powerpack systems for storage of electricity produced by solar batteries. They will allow to supply with electricity for all day — even when the sun set.
As for synthetic biology, one of priority problems of this science creation of genetically modified seaweed is. It is supposed that implementation of piece genes in these plants will allow to display the new type capable to produce alcohol for cars. It is especially relevant in the conditions of constantly becoming soiled environment and global warming.
The important place of Deloitte allocates for quantum technologies. Their improvement will allow to market materials of new type, steady against destruction, whereas wave functions of a quantum status become a basis for creation of new type of computer calculations. It is possible that even the simplest quantum computer will be much more powerful than the most modern the supercomputer for today.
"Repeated accumulation of computing powers which seemed unimaginable until recently can have far-reaching effects" — told Brigs.
Top trends according to Gartner
The Gartner analytical company made the list of the key technologies of new generation intended for the corporate sector. Also experts estimated modern technology innovations, having looked at them under a new point of view, and specified what solutions are found at development peak what will be demanded in the near future and what gradual come to naught.
As it is possible to see higher on an illustration, strategically important technologies which, according to Gartner, are capable to improve the operating processes and infrastructure of the companies (category Incremental), by 2016 public and hybrid cloud infrastructures, architecture of microservices, digital training, products for joint work of staff of the companies and management of client opportunities by means of digitalization are.
To technologies which to the necessary enterprises from the tactical point of view, in Gartner carry a fog computing, adaptive cyber security, wearable electronics, mobile payment systems, integration of working applications, services on demand and contextual calculations.
Technologies which create the new markets are also given in a research or change acting (category Disruptive) radically. It is a blockchain, Big Data, Internet of Things, machine learning, social networks, mobile applications, 3D - printing, virtual reality, services for data processing in real time and open API interfaces.
At peak of expectations of development in 2016 there were such technology directions as machine learning, software solutions of ensuring cyber security, cognitive technologies, unmanned vehicles and carbon nanotubes in electronics.
The main trends according to Accenture
At the beginning of February, 2016 the Accenture company rendering services in the field of management consulting, information technologies and outsourcing published results of an annual research of the technology industry. Within it five main trends were selected, following to which is necessary for business for achievement of success in the digital world.
Specialists of Accenture came to a conclusion that leading companies actively use robots and artificial intelligence technologies (AI) and augmented reality for the purpose of cardinal changes in business and building of new more productive human relations and machines. According to 70% of survey participants (all them was 3100 in 11 countries of the world), in 2014-2015 they increased investments in solutions AI. 55% of respondents told about plans for active implementation of machine learning technologies and the built-in solutions AI.
The companies aim at automation: for example, in Singapore one of restaurants began to use UAVs for delivery of the ordered food, and Siemens automated one of the plants to such an extent that it can work without human supervision several weeks, said in a research.
Flexible labor resources
Participants of a research recognized advantages of quickly adaptive labor resources ready to meet requirements of the companies in the world of digital economy. Among the main characteristics of the personnel participants of a research selected deep examination of special tasks, fast learnability and capability to accelerate quickly.
One of such examples is the General Electric company which implemented at itself a new management system of FastWorks which again connected employees to clients and made them much closer.
81% of respondents predict that by the end of 2018 the platform business models based on new ecosystems and created based on technology platforms, will become a part of the main growth strategy of the companies.
According to Accenture, by the end of 2015 cumulative market capitalization of the largest so-called platform companies (Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.) reached $2.6 trillion, and they continue to invest in development of ecosystems.
Predictable technology break
Accenture notes that fast development of digital ecosystems leads to a new wave of technology breaks. Those companies which can predict the directions of change of ecosystems have advantage over competitors.
For example, in the purposes Google — in development of pilotless machines learned to apply the automobile data used by insurance companies for reduction of cost of payment of an insurance for accurate drivers.
Ensuring trust in the digital world
According to opinion of 83% of respondents, the trust is a basis for all digital world. To win it, analysts recommend to the companies to focus on questions of ethics and security.
Quite so the Apple corporation which after a series of incidents with date leak of users of iCloud in 2014, began to return trust of users does, having become more transparent in use of these clients.
2014: The forecast of trends from IDC
Development of new technologies
By estimates of IDC, in 2015 a universal ICT expenses will grow by 3.8% relatively 2014 and will exceed $3.8 trillion. The main drivers of growth are called cloud and mobile computing, social networks and Big Data.
Growth wireless date traffic
Specialists expect that expenses of operators on wireless data transmission will become the biggest ($536 billion) and fast-growing (13%) a segment of the telecommunication industry.
10 main IT trends of 2015 are called
Phablets and wearable electronics
Sales of mobile devices and applications for them in 2015 will reach $484 billion and will provide a 40 percent contribution to growth of the IT industry, analysts predict. According to them further rise in the market of smartphones will be connected with phablets and corporate mobile applications.
As for wearable electronics, it predict the innovation break and sales volume in the amount of 40-50 million units at the end of 2015.
IDC predict the size of the market of cloud solutions in $118 billion at the end of 2015. The greatest growth rates measured by a 36 percent indicator will show the solutions IaaS. Frank Gens, the senior vice president and the leading analyst of IDC, believes that in the market new and very unexpected alliances, like Facebook with Microsoft and Amazon with HP can be formed that will lead to expansion of market opportunities.
Big Data and analytics
Due to the growing consumption of a multimedia content expenses on instruments of processing and the analysis of data bulks can will exceed $125 billion.
Internet of Things
This market as believe in IDC, is a fundamental factor of raising of the so-called "third platform". Analysts carry new generation of the computing systems forming under the influence of cloud and mobile computing, social networks and Big Data to it. In 2015 emergence of "smarter" devices is expected, and about a third of expenses will be concentrated on the market of Internet of Things around the built-in electronics and the diagnostic equipment.
Data centers with emphasis on clouds
In a type of fundamental transformation of the market of data centers where more and more important role is played by clouds, also idea of DPC will change. Specialists are sure that the new equipment will be created with a careful eye to cloud computing that will cause consolidation among producers of servers, software, disk storages and network equipment. IDC predict two-three large M&A-сделки next year.
Fast expansion of specialized digital platforms
In process of consolidation of new technologies the innovation business platforms capable to change each industry are created. As examples analysts give alternative payment systems in the financial sector, distribution of Internet of Things in the field of city security and public transport, expansion of location-based services for retail business. In 2015 as experts predict, the number of industry specialized platforms will double and will reach 60.
Security and 3D - printing
Analysts expect special attention to technologies of information security support and three-dimensional printing. Producers of the traditional printing equipment are in the last actively interested that can serve as help for rapid growth of the market of 3D-printers in 2015.
Security will remain to some of the main technology trends in 2015. It will be promoted emergence of biometric sensors in smartphones, development of technologies data encryption in a cloud and corporate instruments of warning of cyberthreats.
According to forecasts of IDC, about 43% of growth of the world ICT industry is necessary on the Chinese market in 2015. Every third smartphone in the world will be purchased in Celestial Empire, 30% of online purchases will proceed from there.
10 trends from IDC for Chief information officers till 2018
In December, 2013 the IDC company acted is near a futuristic forecasts concerning development of the industry of IT for the next five years. Analysts of IDC continued to advance actively the idea of "the third platform" (set of mobile, cloud and social computing together with big data) which, according to them, will cardinally change a landscape of information technologies already in the near future.
10 main predictions of IDC till 2018 are as follows:
- In the next two years more than 70% of Chief information officers will change the role in the organizations: they will depart from direct control of information technologies and will turn more likely into the innovation partners.
- By 2017 only 40% of Chief information officers, however, will promote from participation in operational planning for benefit of strategic planning.
- 70% of Chief information officers will be able to increase readiness of the enterprises for risk projects.
- Mobile technologies for business will use 60% of Chief information officers by 2017 for creation of flexible infrastructure.
- The demographic shift will make key IT users younger that will force 80% of Chief information officers to development of the solutions focused on end users and also to integration of business systems with social networks by 2015.
- By 2015 development of "the third platform" will force 60% of Chief information officers to use more actively corporate architecture (enterprise architecture – EA).
- By 2015 budgets of 60% of Chief information officers for information security will be 30-40% less, than it is necessary for effective protection against threats.
- By 2017 60% of Chief information officers will appear before need of cost reduction on infrastructure and transactions.
- By 2016 80% of IT budgets will be intended on integration of services.
- By 2018 adaptation "the third platforms" will change 90% of roles in IT.
10 trends for 2013 from Gartner
Experts of Gartner warn that the list from 10 strategic technologies shall not suit completely each specific company, but strongly recommend "try on it on themselves" to one and all enterprises. It is interesting also that all called technologies were born based on the hottest IT of trends of the present – social data, mobility, cloud solutions and large volumes of information.
Also those that long ago are present at the market can be among such technologies, but at some point reached a stage of "maturity" when they become available to a wide range of users, thereby having significant effect on economy. Also new technologies which can create serious competitive advantages for the first users can be also strategic, creating premises for their deeper penetration in the next five years.
Universal penetration of mobile devices
In 2013, according to forecasts of Gartner, mobile phones will exceed the PC on the frequency of access to the network the Internet, and by 2015 80% of phones sold in mature markets will belong to the category of smartphones. Only 20% of these devices will work based on the Windows operating system. At the same time by 2015 deliveries of media of tablets will make in volume about 50% from deliveries of notebooks, and Windows 8 will be on the third place in popularity a post of Android and iOS. Konsumerization at the same time will lead to the fact that the enterprises will not be able to dictate to the workers the choice of platforms of mobile devices so they should support a broad spectrum of platforms and form factors, without giving the chance to standardize the equipment. On change to an era of the PC the post-PC an era where Windows will be only one of many popular systems will come from the dominating Windows.
Mobile applications and HTML5
In the market more than 100 potential vendors of tools for creation of user applications will appear. Now Gartner separates mobile development tools into several categories, and in the short term it is impossible to select some one as the most optimal. Nevertheless, there will be a considerable jump from "house" applications for benefit of web applications, in many respects thanks to the growing popularity of HTML5. Also it is necessary to work as the developer seriously over that applications with the tach-interface correctly functioned on the majority of platforms.
The private cloud systems in many respects will replace the PC as the place where private users keep the majority of the data belonging to them, being at the same time access point to services and personal settings. Private clouds will become as the "glue" integrating the different types of devices involved by the modern person in everyday life. At the same time any platform, vendor or technology will not be able to reach a dominant position in the cloud world.
Corporate app stores
The enterprises in the future should create own app stores as some vendors will limit use of the applications on a number of platforms that will force corporate users to interact with a set of app stores, involving a set of parallel transactions of payment and license agreements. So by 2014 many companies will get own "App Store" which will supply employees of these companies with necessary software in a private order.
Internet of Things (Internet of Things, IoT) is the concept which describes as the Internet expands the influence on physical devices and provides their communication with a global network. Crucial physical elements of Internet of Things are directly mobile devices, sensors, sensing technologies of images and NFC. Besides, mobile technologies are built-in not only in smarftona and tablets, but also, for example, pharmaceutical containers or cars. Smartphones and other intelligent devices, according to this concept, can communicate by means of NFC, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi with a broad spectrum of devices and peripheral devices, such as displays, medical sensors, life support systems of buildings and many others. Based on this ecosystem a huge number of new services will be created.
Hybrid and cloud computing
As the companies are faced by a task to execute bigger smaller means, IT departments will play the main role in coordination of the IT of activities arising around, and cloud solutions will bring this process to new level. It means that IT departments will become peculiar "brokers" of cloud services, controlling their distribution to internal users and effective use.
Big Data become one of the key strategic factors influencing an information architecture of business. Work with so considerable amounts of data leads to change of many traditional approaches. In particular, many organizations will refuse use of uniform corporate data warehouses for benefit of model from several systems. Content management systems, data warehouses, data marts, specialized file systems connected with date by services and meta data which in total and will become a uniform "logical" information warehouse will be among such systems.
Analytics in operation
The analytics is even more often delivered to users at the time of action and in a specific context. IT heads, thus, have an opportunity to make the analysis and modeling for each action. Mobile clients allow to use operational analytical data at any time and in any place. All this together does decision making process more flexible and effective.
Calculations in RAM
Calculations in RAM (In memory computing) also have the potential for business transformation. Such technologies allow to execute some difficult processes in minutes and even seconds that leads to creation of the new information services working in real time and which can be delivered to users in the form of cloud services. Numerous vendors will present the solutions in this area in the next two years.
The integrated ecosystems
The IT market in general endures transition to use of more integrated systems and ecosystems in comparison with heterogeneous approach which was prevailing until recently. This trend is shown at three levels. The equipment combines equipment rooms and software tools, and software and services are packaged for the corresponding infrastructure of the application and workload.
10 trends from IDC till 2018
Analysts of IDC called 10 main trends which will affect world IT market and work of one and all Chief information officers in 2013. According to them, in the next years market development of information technologies will develop as follows:
- By 2016 the business management of the companies will be directly involved in 80% of new projects in information technology field.
- By 2015 90% of IT investments will be estimated in terms of compliance to strategic objectives of the companies.
- Cross impact of positions Chief information officer and "chief financial officer" will lead to cardinal transformation financial IT of model of the organizations.
- In 2013 Chief information officers will present the third platforms of Mash-Up as competitive advantages.
- In 2016 70% of Chief information officers will put cloud solutions at the head of own strategy of IT.
- By 2013 one third of all newly created applications will be intended for a mobile form factor.
- Corporate social networks will be beyond pilot stages.
- Projects in the field of analytics and Big Data will exceed all other IT projects on relevance.
- The lack of IT talents will become a big obstacle for innovations.
- By 2018 50% of top managers will perceive Chief information officers as business innovators.
Gartner about IT trends for all vertical industries till 2017
In December, 2012 published the main IT forecasts for 2013 for the companies of the different vertical industries. According to analysts, the social systems, mobile communications, clouds and growth of information volumes will have a business impact of the companies around the world and will lead to fundamental changes in business processes.
According to Kimberly Harris-Ferrante (Kimberly Harris-Ferrante), the vice president of Gartner, the majority of the industries will be faced the need of large-scale conversions in 2013-2015. Chief information officers and other top managers of the companies can use the recommendations of Gartner given below in order that it is better to realize calls which are born them by universal adaptation of information technologies and quickly changing business environment.
- By 2016 three car makers announce specific plans for release of cars which will use technologies of off-line control.
- By 2015 nonconventional methods of earnings and exchange of money will allow 125 million more people to participate in global economy.
- By 2016 a number of patients will be victims or under the threat from failure of difficult electronic medical devices.
- By 2016 the national governments will lower directives to institutes to reduce curricula under the influence of a phenomenon of growth of Big Data.
- By 2015 in the English-speaking countries use of the natural-language processing systems (NLP) among the large medical organizations will become a norm that will affect quality of documentation, reports and researches.
- By 2015 the successful organizations will address integration of information as to one of the main competitive advantages.
- By 2016 a half of consumers of energy carriers in the USA will have access to the standardized data on power consumption, but only 20% will use these data.
- By the end of 2014 the market of car insurance on the pay-as-you-drive model it is considerable to increase in volume and will make 10% of the volume of annual bonuses in this sector.
- By 2017 more than 50% of media will sell advertizing through the specialized agencies on the basis of data on its efficiency.
- By 2014 less than 2% of users will use around the world NFC for mobile payments.
- More than 50% of the organizations which will provide cloud government services in 2015 will stop their providing by 2017.
- By 2015 50% of producers of consumer goods of the class Tier 1 invest in technology startups with the purpose to get access to violently growing market of B2C of technologies.
- During 2014 expenses of the enterprises on corporate software will grow by 25% of the current values as a result of distribution of intellectual operational technologies.
- By 2016 at least 25% of discrete producers will implement 3D technologies of printing for production of parts.
- ↑ 10 Breakthrough Technologies
- ↑ IDC says China's ICT Market Faces Both Opportunities and Challenges amid the COVID-19 Outbreak
- ↑ Gartner: Top 10 trends impacting IT infrastructure & operations in 2020
- ↑ IDC: Top 10 worldwide IT predictions for 2020
- ↑ Medvedev called for demonopolization of world IT sphere and production of software
- ↑ Forrester Releases 2020 Predictions
- ↑ Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020
- ↑ TrendForce Announces Top 10 Trends in Information and Communication Technology Industry for 2020
- ↑ Gartner's top picks for wireless tech trends in 2019 and beyond
- ↑ Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
- ↑ A.T. Kearney: Get used to competing in the ‘digital disorder’ era
- ↑ IDC Reveals Worldwide CIO Agenda 2019 Predictions
- ↑ 10 predictions for how the tech industry will change in 2019 and beyond
- ↑ Gartner's Top 10 Predictions For IT In 2019 And Beyond
- ↑ DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS VI
- ↑ Gartner Identifies Five Emerging Technology Trends That Will Blur the Lines Between Human and Machine
- ↑ Changing the Way the World Works: IBM Research’s '5 in 5'
- ↑ Juniper Research: Top Ten Tech Predictions for 2018: Juniper Expects Amazon to Win Battle for Sporting Events
- ↑ IDC of 2018 Predictions: If You're Not In The Cloud, You're Isolated From Innovation
- ↑ Gartner Top Strategic Predictions for 2018 and Beyond
- ↑ TECHNOLOGY VISION 2016
- ↑ IDC’s Top 10 technology predictions for 2015
- ↑ as IDC Releases Market Predictions for 2014: CIO Agenda
- ↑ 24,0 24,1  Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013 10