What technologies will become main in the future?
10.08.11, 14:51, Msk
Gartner published the assessment of a cycle of change of information technologies (Hype Cycle) for 2011: according to her, on a crest of expectations there are cloud networks, social networks, technologies of processing of Big Data and questions in a natural language.
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Wireless technologies of power supply, Internet television, NFC payments and private cloud computing - some of technologies, being at peak of expectations, according to the Cycle of the developing technologies 2011 from Gartner (Gartner Hype Cycle 2011). Among other new trends – processing of large volumes of information and technology of the answer to natural questions.
Jackie Fenn, the vice president and the member of scientific community Gartner, told that among technologies this year interest in social networks, cloud computing and the mobile sphere continues to grow. "Social networks, social analytics, programs of business activity and acquisition of the companies at the price close to top of a pica of their cost, show that the era of transcendental estimates for startups of Web 2.0 did not end yet", - she noted.
According to her, private cloud computing left up a curve of expectations while since 2010 cloud / web - platforms fell down. Mobile technologies for most of clients continue to remain a part of plans, short-term and long-term, and are presented in the report by tablets, NFC payments, barcodes of a fast response / color codes, app stores for mobile devices and applications of a geolocation.
The structure of the transforming technologies which will become sign within five years will include very noticeable areas, such as tablets and cloud computing. Among them is also specific, such as database management systems in RAM (in-memory), processing of large volumes of data, profound information processing.
In the long term - outside a five-years period: three-dimensional printing, the contextual enriched services, "virtual reality" (a so-called "real Web" - in earlier researches Gartner), Internet TV and technologies of the answer to natural questions will be the principal technology directions. Looking more than for 10 years ahead, potential such directions as 3D bioprinting have, increase in the person, mobile robots and quantum computings.
Many technologies presented in this report correspond to four primary subjects of the recent report of Gartner on the main technology trends:
The interconnected world
Achievements in the field of embedding of sensors, processing and wireless communication give power of the world digital to the world physical. This sphere develops slowly, but now accelerates with growth of distribution of the inexpensive built-in sensors and video cameras. This year the report includes the wide trend called by the Internet of reality; technologies of identification, like NFC payments (that will give to wider use of this technology in other appendices); QR/color barcodes codes and image understanding; program layers as augmented reality, the contextual enriched services and applications of a geolocation; and among technologies there are communications, such as services of communication "machine machine" and sensor networks. Analysts consider that development of this sphere, in full, will take at least one more decade, but many interesting and profitable aspects and opportunities will appear on this way.
Development of interfaces
User interfaces are one more, slowly developing area having a considerable impact on others. The sensing technology of the speech was provided as a part of the report of Gartner on technology expectations in 1995 and still did not reach a maturity, and the brain computer interfaces will develop, at least, as early as years 10 before leave research laboratories. However, answers to the questions asked by a natural language look impressively and are most noticeable in achievement of the Watson computer from IBM. Recognition of gestures also became the beginning of the powerful movement as a result of emergence of the Kinect systems from Microsoft. Other spheres develop more slowly, including transfer "speech-in-speech", augmented reality and virtual assistants while the virtual worlds do not change after achievement of a pica of 2007.
Analytical achievements
Support of storage and processing of initial ("crude") data for extraction of bigger cost and conciseness. Possibilities of these technologies continue to develop. The predictive analytics develops, but researchers and developers continue to improve and apply basic methods to new data sources. Image understanding adds new features in the systems of search, retail and social networks and also makes the contribution to development of other areas, such as augmented reality and video analytics. Use of social methods of the analysis continues development by means of new sources and types of social information. Achievements in calculations, such as database management systems in memories and Big Data, will reach new level in a big way.
New digital boundaries
Exits for limits of traditional technologies in information science and the appearing new opportunities, will reach performance level and the prices which radically will change many processes and even the industries. Serve as examples in the report of this year as 3D - printing, bioprinting (creation of tissues of the person) and mobile robots.