Moore's law

1965: Moore formulates the assumption

The Moore's law — the empirical observation made in 1965 (in six years after the invention of the integrated circuit), in the course of preparation of a performance Gordon Moore (one of founders of Intel).

Dependence of number of transistors on a microprocessor crystal from time. Pay attention that the vertical axis has a logarithmic scale, i.e. the curve corresponds to the exponential law — the number of transistors doubles approximately each 2 years.

Moore suggested that the number of transistors on a crystal will double each 24 months. In the analysis of the diagram of increase in productivity of the memorable chips it detected pattern: emergence of new models of chips was observed later approximately identical periods (18 — 24 months) after predecessors, at the same time the number of transistors increased in them every time approximately twice. Gordon Moore came to a conclusion that when preserving this trend the power of computing devices for rather short period can exponential grow.

This observation received the name the Moore's law. There is a mass of similar statements which characterize processes of exponential growth, also referred to as with "the Moore's laws". For example, less known "second law of Moore" entered in 1998 by Eugene Meyeran who says that the cost of factories on production of chips exponential increases with complication of the made chips. So, the cost of factory on which the Intel corporation made chips of a dynamic memory with a capacity of 1 Kb was $4 million, and the equipment on production of the Pentium microprocessor on 0.6-micrometer technology from 5.5 million transistors cost $2 billion. The cost of Fab32, the plant on production of processors based on 45-nanometer technical process, was $3 billion.

Concerning the effects caused by the Moore's law such interesting comparison somehow was given in the V Mire Nauki magazine:

"If aircraft industry in the last 25 years developed as promptly as the industry of computer aids, then now the Boeing 767 airplane would cost 500 dollars and made flight of the globe in 20 minutes, spending at the same time five gallons (~ 18.9 l) fuels. The provided digits very precisely reflect reduction in cost, growth of high-speed performance and increase in profitability of a computer". — V Mire Nauki magazine (1983, No. 10)[3] (Russian edition "Scientific American")

In 2007 Moore said that the law, obviously, will cease to work because of the atomic nature of substance and restriction of light speed soon.

One of physical restraints on miniaturization of electronic circuits is also the Principle of Landauer, according to which the logical networks which are not reversible should select warmth in the quantity proportional to quantity erased (forever lost), of data. Opportunities for withdrawal of warmth are physically limited.

Parallelism and Moore's law

Recently, to have an opportunity to involve that additional computing power which is predicted by the Moore's law in practice it became necessary to involve parallel computings. For many years, producers of processors constantly increased clock rate and parallelism at the level of instructions so on new processors old single-threaded applications were performed quicker without any changes in a program code. Now for various reasons producers of processors prefer multinuclear architecture, and for obtaining all benefit from the increased CPU capacity programs should be rewritten in the corresponding manner. However, for the fundamental reasons, it is possible not always.

2012: Denial of the law of Moore

from the University of New South Wales made the next break in development of the computer industry: they for the first time managed to create the working transistor based on one atom.

Since 1954, a kogod the research associate of Texas Instruments George Teal created the first silicon transistor, the innovative solutions allowed to reduce and reduce gradually the size of these electronic components that led to creation of computers and mobile devices of modern type.

One device may contain billions of transistors which work together for accomplishment of simple binary calculations. The more transistors is per acre, the calculations are made quicker and the more information can process and save computers, at the same time spending less energy.

In the past monatomic transistors were already created. But by today in their use the error in 10 nanometers was reached (the nanometer is equal to one billion meter). But the monatomic transistor that it could be used in real devices, requires arrangement of one atom precisely on the silicon chip. According to the magazine about Nature Nanotechnology nanotechnologies, also researchers managed to reach personalized it.

They used the scanning tunnel microscope (the device which allows researchers to see atoms and to provide the accuracy of manipulations with them) scientists did the narrow channel in silicon base. Then gas phosphene using which separate atom of phosphorus between two electrodes in the necessary area was placed was applied. When electric current passes through such device, it strengthens and transmits an electric signal, as is the basic principle of operation of any transistor.

So achievement of scientists from Australia brought closer mankind on one step to creation of quantum computers. Surprisingly as well the fact that the command set the law at defiance of Moore (is based on Gordon Moore publication in the Electronics Magazine magazine in 1965). According to this law, the number of the transistors which are placed on one scheme doubles each 18-24 months. So, according to the Moore's forecasts, monatomic transistors should appear not earlier than 2020. However it occurred for 8 years earlier.

Michelle Simmons, the director of ARC Centre for Quantum Computation and Communications and the head of research group, said: "We decided 10 years ago that we will create the monatomic transistor as quickly as it will be possible and by that we will disprove this law. And here we made it in 2012".

However before real use of such transistors there will pass 15-20 more years. The matter is that the working sample functions only at a temperature minus 391 degrees within laboratory so is only the proof of the concept.

2015: Intel believes in further compliance with law of Moore

At the International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC) conference which took place from February 22 to February 26, 2015 in San Francisco participants of the semiconductor industry told about the achievements and plans regarding mastering of "thin" technology regulations. Chipmakers will be able to reach 10 nanometers by means of the current technologies, but further development will become complicated therefore producers will need new solutions.^[1]

According to the leading specialist of Intel Mark Bohr (Mark Bohr), despite general fight against the growing expenses on semiconductor plates, the company continues to increase density of transistors in chips and to reduce cost value of each of them, and does it quicker in a case from 14 nanometers in comparison with the previous technologies. These rates will remain on 10 and 7 nanometers a step due to the scaling allowing to raise an integration scale and to reduce the price of the cost of one transistor, Bohr said.

Intel is sure that the cost of transistors will still fall in process of mastering of the advanced technical processes

It should be noted that Intel began 14-nanometer production with lateness approximately for 6-9 months concerning the planned terms. Despite it the American corporation was ahead of competitors, and by the end of February, 2015 only it offers 14-nanometer processors, and TSMC, Samsung and GlobalFoundries only just are accustomed to release of 16-nanometer products with preserving of 20-nanometer geometry in metal layers.

Intel promises commercial mastering of 10-nanometer technical process in 2016 and is going to use 7-nanometer technology in the 2018th. In two years the company expects transition to 5 nanometers.

It will be difficult to make it without innovations. They surely will appear as quite so was in recent years, Mark Bohr is sure, referring to the Moore's law assuming that computing power doubles each 24 months.

When mastering the advanced project regulations of Intel, perhaps, will apply packaging of 2.5D chips (layers are located next to each other) and 3D (layers are located over each other). At the same time the corporation continues search of new solutions, effective in terms of cost value.

The head of semiconductor division of Samsung Kim (Kinam Kim) told KiNs that CMOS transistors it is theoretically possible to reduce 3-5 nanometers to regulations. At the same time the top manager agreed that technologies lower than 10 nanometers require new approaches.

2019: Speed of development of AI advances the Moore's law

At the end of December, 2019 Stanford University published results of a research according to which the computing power of artificial intelligence advances more than seven years the Moore's law. Read more here.

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