System implementation of monitoring, the analysis and forecasting of power industry of the region of China in the State Grid Corporation of China (State Grid Corporation of China, SGCC)

About the Customer

State Grid Corporation of China is the world's largest electric grid company (China). Takes the 7th place in the Fortune Global 500 list. The company specializes in construction and operation of the electric networks in China and abroad. In domestic market SGCC has the exclusive status in the field of transportation and implementation of the electric power. One of regional divisions of SGCC became the customer of Prognoz company.

Project Objective

The development purpose – providing specialists of regional division of SGCC with the modern tool of the analysis and forecasting of electricity consumption and load of power supply networks. Need of analysts of SGCC for the reasonable and exact forecasts of electricity consumption for the region necessary for development of policy of the company, implementation of problems of planning became premises of creation of a system.

Main objectives of a system:

• Provide users with all data on economy and power industry of the country and the region, necessary for the analysis (including data of official statistics and the international organizations).
• Create general idea about a situation in power industry of the region and about current trends in the industry.
• Receive forecasts for key indicators of power industry.

Key features

In 2013 the international development team which part the Russian and Chinese specialists of Forecast were based on a software platform of Prognoz Platform company created a monitoring system, the analysis and forecasting of power industry of the region of China.

The complex of models allowing to calculate future volume of energy consumption on the basis of short-term and long-term forecasts of development of the region and also data on development and electricity consumption is the cornerstone of the solution. Components of a complex are the model of power industry and model of regional economy which describes economy of the specific region taking into account its specifics. So, the regional model considers parameters of the state and regional policy (growth rate of investments, currency rates, etc.) and also indicators of world economy. In this model calculation of key indicators of regional economy is conducted to about one or several scenarios that allows to consider different options of development of the region.

In turn, the indicators calculated using this model (for example, the gross added value, the income of the population, investment into fixed capital, the prices), are used for calculation of models of power industry within which electricity consumption in general on the region and also on large customer groups is predicted. Besides, the forecast still of a number of indicators of power industry – such as sales of the electric power, loading of capacities forms.

At creation of forecasts the scenario approach allowing to answer the question "what will be if?" is used. For example, as total electricity consumption in the region will change if investment volume grows or will be reduced by a certain number of percent. This approach allows to receive power forecasts for different options of development of regional and national economy and, as a result, to estimate influence of the state and regional programs.

Possibilities of users

Experts by means of the desktop application can:

• add own scenarios of calculation, calculate for them models and save the received results in a system;
• set values of input parameters for the available scenarios (for example if change of parameters of state policy is expected);
• browse and if necessary to update the equations entering a complex of models.

All other users of a system by means of the web portal can:

• browse the forecasts received by experts;
• compare results of forecasting for different scenarios;
• compare indicators of development of power industry in provinces by means of the cartography module.

The data access is defined by powers and competence of users: all information, and to users - information necessary for the solution of their direct tasks is available to heads.

Novelty of the project

The novelty of the project is that earlier electricity consumption did not contact indicators of regional economy. The extrapolation methods predicting electricity consumption on the basis of historical data that did not allow to consider level variation of development of economy in the region were generally used.

Project Results

The project was complete at the end of 2013. System implementation allowed to lower costs and time for search of up-to-date data and also to improve quality of information, to increase visualization of its representation, efficiency of the solution of analytical and forecast tasks. Accuracy and justification of the made decisions due to use of forecasts of development of power industry increased.

"It is remarkable that to system implementation several departments of regional division of SGCC were engaged in formation of forecasts for electricity consumption. After system implementation that division which uses the solution of Forecast gives forecasts, – the head of office of Forecast in Beijing Alexander Zaytsev tells. – Verification of models showed that our model gave the smallest discrepancy with actual data".