FKUZ of ROSNIPCHI Microbe of Rospotrebnadzor (Deductor)

Problem definition

In recent years in certain regions of the country flashes of manifestations of epidemic processes of the Crimean hemorrhagic fever (CHF) became frequent. As it is a difficult clinical disease with a high probability of lethal outcomes, the urgent need in forecasting of similar flashes for operational holding preventive actions appeared.

The assigned task became complicated need of accounting of the external factors having a great influence on surges in manifestations of epidemic processes. Also when developing it is necessary to consider simplicity of integration with the different systems and services.

Solution

For the solution of a task data from all subjects of the Russian Federation where cases infection with this disease were recorded were collected. In the course of studying of historical data, dependences of number of patients on climatic conditions, such as air temperature, relative humidity, etc. were revealed. Thus, the significant factors used further for creation of the mathematical model describing course of this process and predictive its future value were defined.

Project Description: ROSNPCH Microbe

At creation of model the main criterion, in addition to forecast accuracy, was universality of model as this model should be applicable to all subjects of the Russian Federation, irrespective of climatic zone and conditions.

Result

The optimal model which automatically reveals the most significant factors for each subject of the Russian Federation was as a result constructed, and gives them on an input of a self-training algorithm.

At receipt of new data there is an automatic update and retraining of model then results of the forecast arrive on the website of ROSNPCHI the Microbe: http://www.microbe.ru/. At the same time integration with GISOM allows to present results of the forecast in the most comfortable form for assessment of scales of epidemic, both on local, and at the federal level.