НГУ: Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System (ITRIS)

For January 31, 2017 Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System (ITRIS) is technology of identification of a source of a tsunami, refining of amplitude of a tsunami and forecasting of effects.

On January 31, 2017 the press service of Novosibirsk State University announced development of a method of the fastest identification of a source of a tsunami. The technology will help the authorities and profile departments to predict a situation with a tsunami with a smaller error, without going deep into parts of mathematical models.

Distribution of heights of a wave of a tsunami near coast of Japan. Result of modeling in the ITRIS system (Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System), (2016)

Tsunami most often result from an underwater earthquake, information on which becomes known within several minutes as sonic speed in the earth is tens times higher than sonic speed in water. In most cases forecasts of distribution of a tsunami are incorrect. According to information on magnitude of earthquake, displacement angles of earth's plates and approximate coordinates of epicenter it is possible to calculate amplitude of a source of the arisen tsunami with some error. In 80% of cases such forecasts are false that involves enormous expenses on evacuation of the population and strategic objects. False data on a tsunami source strongly affect calculation of height of the wave running on the coast: each meter can be pernicious as, for example, occurred during a tsunami in Japan in 2011. Olga Krivorotko, senior teacher of MMF NSU

Tsunami wave setup with indication of a possible zone of flooding (it is highlighted in blue color), (2016)

Methods of mathematical modeling are applied to refining of amplitude of a source of a tsunami. The staff of joint laboratory of Institute of mathematics and mathematical geophysics (IVMIMG) of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science and NSU uses methods of the numerical solution of the return and incorrect tasks^[1].

We select such parameters of a source that the model wave of a tsunami deviated height of the passing real wave in the ocean as little as possible. Real data can be obtained from satellite pictures or navodny stations. Measurements are processed by filters from noise, then the algorithm of the numerical solution of a problem of determination of a source is created, the software package is developed, and the algorithm is fulfilled on test problems. Olga Krivorotko

The historical database of nablyudenny heights of a tsunami since 1628 BC and till 2012, (2016)

Purpose of the created technology — a support and maintenance of researches of an event of a tsunami and the earthquakes generating them, forecasting of emergencies. As a part of a complex specialized databases of sources of a tsunami, tools for processing and the analysis of geodata, a software package for calculation of distribution of waves and determination of coordinates of a source. A system can predict effects, assess material damage and damages of strategically important objects.

According to creators of a system, with its help specialized divisions and authorities will be able to conduct monitoring and to predict a tsunami, without going deep into parts of mathematical models, and scientists can use a product as the platform for conducting research.

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