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2020/03/19 22:22:45

Economy of Afghanistan

Content

Main article: Afghanistan

GDP

2019: Increased economic growth

According to Coface experts, the growth rate of the economy in Afghanistan again turned positive largely due to the end of the drought in 2018, as the agricultural sector still accounts for 44% of employment and 25% of GDP. The manufacturing and services sectors will continue to suffer from uncertainties surrounding the postponement of the second round of presidential elections to spring 2020. This situation will also undermine investor confidence and limit the flow of private capital to Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's economic highlights, Coface data

Private sector lending continues to decline and by the end of 2019 amounted to about 3% of GDP. In addition, pronounced population growth will lead to a further increase in poverty, and inflation will continue to increase due to increased demand for food. Afghanistan's trade balance remained negative in 2019 (about -35% of GDP), given the low level of exports affected by the difficult situation in neighboring Pakistan. It is Pakistan and India that account for the main exports of goods from Afghanistan (43% and 40%, respectively). Imported goods mainly come from Iran, China and Pakistan.

At the same time, Afghanistan is still completely dependent on international assistance. While government revenues remained strong in 2019 thanks to the 2018 tax reform, they will not be able to offset the decline in foreign donations, which made up about 50% of the budget. Therefore, in 2020, Afghanistan will face a moderate deficit with no increase in investment, experts say.

Afghanistan's 2019 debt remained reasonably low, but limited market access leaves the state vulnerable. External funding is crucial to the country's security, as the Afghan army (50% of spending) is 90% funded from foreign sources, the report said.[1]

2018: GDP $545 per capita

In 2018, the GDP per capita in Afghanistan was $545.

As of the beginning of 2020

2017

Financial system

External debt

2019: Debt to Russia - $0.8 billion

with
Countries the largest debts to Russia, 2019. We are talking about both the debts of states and the debts of legal entities guaranteed by states.

Inflation

2022: Inflation in November - 13.6%

Data for November 2022

Reserves

In August 2021, after the transition of power in the country to the Taliban, the United States froze the reserves of the Central Bank of Afghanistan.

In February 2022, US President Joe Biden signed a decree blocking $7 billion of assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan in the United States. The United States will reserve half of the frozen assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan for the possible payment of compensation for claims in American courts.

Currency: Afghani

2021: Depreciation to 86 Afghani per dollar after Taliban take over and U.S. cash supply halted

In August 2021, the United States stopped the supply of cash dollars to Afghanistan, which for years were supplied by the government and the central bank of the country, so that they would ensure the circulation of hard currency in the country and keep Afghans on the "black" market.

A large shipment of dollars was supposed to go to Afghanistan, but the White House blocked the supply, fearing that the money would go to the Taliban, to whom power in the country has passed.

The US Treasury held an emergency meeting and decided to deploy a plane with dollars from the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which was already flying to Afghanistan at that moment.

This created a panic in the central bank of Afghanistan, whose head, Azhal Ahmadi, fled the country after the president and minister of finance. On Tuesday, Ahmadi said that the blocking of the flow of dollars from the States left the authorities without the opportunity to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency, which collapsed twice.

On August 17, forex providers list Afghani at 86 per dollar, a historic low that is 8% below levels at the end of last week.

However, the currency exchange in Afghanistan is down and can only open on Friday after the end of the Muharram Days weekend.

The real exchange rate of Afghani on the "black market" collapsed twice in a matter of days, reports the Pakistani edition of Dawn, citing dealers.

Back at the end of last week, 2.1-2.2 Pakistani rupees were given for one unit of Afghan currency, now it is about 1.2 rupees.

Minerals

Oil and gas production

2023: Chinese CAPEIC contract

In early January 2023, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahed announced a contract with the Chinese company CAPEIC (Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co) for the development of an oil and gas field in Afghanistan.

According to the agreement, the Chinese will receive the primary right to extract oil and gas from deposits in the Amu Darya river basin in the provinces of Sari-Pul, Jauzjan and Faryab. For this, the Taliban will be paid about 150 million US dollars a year, and in three years the amount will increase to 540 million.

Despite the emerging security problems, the Chinese side is actively increasing its presence in troubled Afghanistan. At the same time, investment in the oil and gas sector is due to the need to provide assistance to the Taliban in return for the priority right to extract lithium and other rare metals.

World's largest lithium reserves

Main Article: Lithium (Global Market)

As of August 2021, Afghanistan has fields estimated at $1 trillion or more, including the world's largest lithium reserves.

Foreign trade

2019

Afghan Export and Import Trading Partners, Early 2020 Data, Coface

2018

Afghan Export and Import Trading Partners, Early 2019 Data, Coface

Drug traffic

Main article: Drugs in Afghanistan

Power

2020: Energy consumption per capita

and
Energy consumption per capita, including electricity, transport heating in 2019-2020

Real estate

2020:73% of urban population lives in slums

Consumption

2023: Lamb and goat are the most consumed type of meat

The most consumed type of meat (including fish and seafood) according to data available for June 2023.

2018: Ban on the sale of alcoholic beverages

Data for 2018