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Main article: Afghanistan
GDP
2019: Increased economic growth
According to Coface experts, the growth rate of the economy in Afghanistan again turned positive largely due to the end of the drought in 2018, as the agricultural sector still accounts for 44% of employment and 25% of GDP. The manufacturing and services sectors will continue to suffer from uncertainties surrounding the postponement of the second round of presidential elections to spring 2020. This situation will also undermine investor confidence and limit the flow of private capital to Afghanistan.
Private sector lending continues to decline and by the end of 2019 amounted to about 3% of GDP. In addition, pronounced population growth will lead to a further increase in poverty, and inflation will continue to increase due to increased demand for food. Afghanistan's trade balance remained negative in 2019 (about -35% of GDP), given the low level of exports affected by the difficult situation in neighboring Pakistan. It is Pakistan and India that account for the main exports of goods from Afghanistan (43% and 40%, respectively). Imported goods mainly come from Iran, China and Pakistan.
At the same time, Afghanistan is still completely dependent on international assistance. While government revenues remained strong in 2019 thanks to the 2018 tax reform, they will not be able to offset the decline in foreign donations, which made up about 50% of the budget. Therefore, in 2020, Afghanistan will face a moderate deficit with no increase in investment, experts say.
Afghanistan's 2019 debt remained reasonably low, but limited market access leaves the state vulnerable. External funding is crucial to the country's security, as the Afghan army (50% of spending) is 90% funded from foreign sources, the report said.[1]
2018: GDP $545 per capita
In 2018, the GDP per capita in Afghanistan was $545.
2017
Financial system
External debt
2019: Debt to Russia - $0.8 billion
withInflation
2022: Inflation in November - 13.6%
Reserves
In August 2021, after the transition of power in the country to the Taliban, the United States froze the reserves of the Central Bank of Afghanistan.
In February 2022, US President Joe Biden signed a decree blocking $7 billion of assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan in the United States. The United States will reserve half of the frozen assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan for the possible payment of compensation for claims in American courts.
Currency: Afghani
2021: Depreciation to 86 Afghani per dollar after Taliban take over and U.S. cash supply halted
In August 2021, the United States stopped the supply of cash dollars to Afghanistan, which for years were supplied by the government and the central bank of the country, so that they would ensure the circulation of hard currency in the country and keep Afghans on the "black" market.
A large shipment of dollars was supposed to go to Afghanistan, but the White House blocked the supply, fearing that the money would go to the Taliban, to whom power in the country has passed.
The US Treasury held an emergency meeting and decided to deploy a plane with dollars from the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which was already flying to Afghanistan at that moment.
This created a panic in the central bank of Afghanistan, whose head, Azhal Ahmadi, fled the country after the president and minister of finance. On Tuesday, Ahmadi said that the blocking of the flow of dollars from the States left the authorities without the opportunity to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency, which collapsed twice.
On August 17, forex providers list Afghani at 86 per dollar, a historic low that is 8% below levels at the end of last week.
However, the currency exchange in Afghanistan is down and can only open on Friday after the end of the Muharram Days weekend.
The real exchange rate of Afghani on the "black market" collapsed twice in a matter of days, reports the Pakistani edition of Dawn, citing dealers.
Back at the end of last week, 2.1-2.2 Pakistani rupees were given for one unit of Afghan currency, now it is about 1.2 rupees.
Minerals
Oil and gas production
2023: Chinese CAPEIC contract
In early January 2023, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahed announced a contract with the Chinese company CAPEIC (Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co) for the development of an oil and gas field in Afghanistan.
According to the agreement, the Chinese will receive the primary right to extract oil and gas from deposits in the Amu Darya river basin in the provinces of Sari-Pul, Jauzjan and Faryab. For this, the Taliban will be paid about 150 million US dollars a year, and in three years the amount will increase to 540 million.
Despite the emerging security problems, the Chinese side is actively increasing its presence in troubled Afghanistan. At the same time, investment in the oil and gas sector is due to the need to provide assistance to the Taliban in return for the priority right to extract lithium and other rare metals.
World's largest lithium reserves
Main Article: Lithium (Global Market)
As of August 2021, Afghanistan has fields estimated at $1 trillion or more, including the world's largest lithium reserves.
Foreign trade
2023: Trade turnover between Russia and Afghanistan has grown 3 times since the withdrawal of US troops
In 2023, the volume of mutual trade between the Russian Federation and Afghanistan amounted to about $560 million, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexei Overchuk said in mid-May 2024.
This is for a country like Afghanistan, with a population of 40 million, a very small figure, "he told reporters. |
The trade turnover of Russia and Afghanistan has grown 5 times since the withdrawal of US troops and reached $1 billion. Rustam Khabibullin, head of the Russian Business Center in Afghanistan, announced this in mid-May 2024.
Trade between Russia and Afghanistan is growing at a high rate. For example, if in 2022 it amounted to about 170 million dollars, now it has already crossed the mark of one billion dollars, "he said in an interview with RIA Novosti. |
Thus, in 2023, relative to 2022, the trade turnover of Russia and Afghanistan increased 3 times. According to Khabibullin, the high growth rates of trade between Russia and Afghanistan are associated with the coming to power of the Taliban (movement is prohibited in Russia and recognized as terrorist) and the withdrawal of US and NATO forces, which "in every possible way prevented the active development of economic and political relations between the two countries." Russia intends to create jobs in Afghanistan and invest in local projects.
These are the same factories, factories, agriculture, including the construction of the Kush-tape water channel. A number of our companies apply for long-term lease of land plots for agricultural reasons next to this channel, "the head of the Russian Business Center in Afghanistan told the agency. |
According to the acting Minister of Industry and Trade of Afghanistan Nuriddin Azizi, Afghanistan would like to open a business center in Moscow. He also reminded that Russia has already opened its own in Kabul.[2]
2019
2018
Drug traffic
Main article: Drugs in Afghanistan