ITMO university: The application for forecasting of risk to catch COVID-19 on the basis of behavior of people

2020: The application presentation for forecasting of risk to catch COVID-19 on the basis of behavior of people

On April 13, 2020 the ITMO university announced creation of the Internet-application which allows to predict spread of an infection of a coronavirus in the different countries. At the heart of the application — the epidemiological model combined with behavior model of society; they are configured on up-to-date data about the number of the diseased.

The application allows to estimate in playful way as gain or weakening of measures of self-isolation in the specific country can affect risks of spread of an infection. It gives the chance to the user to judge as his own actions affect risk to be among infected.

Modern epidemiological models should be under construction not only and not just on the basis of medical data, and on the basis of data on social communications. To show it to the normal user, we created the application where people can visually see what will be if they begin to treat self-isolation measures carelessly. At the heart of model — accounting of different types of social contacts, including mass actions, professional activity, household mobility and also contacts in families, — the head of laboratory of the National center of cognitive developments of the ITMO University Sergei Ivanov tells

As scientists emphasize, application creation is only a demonstration part of a lot of work on mathematical modeling in the conditions of a pandemic. They want to use the researches both for the help to ordinary people, and for decision support by the authorities, heads of the plants, networks of city transport, shops and other places of accumulation of people.

Our command is engaged in modeling of daily behavior of people in the city, we understand how the behavior of the person in transport, shop, at work looks. In this situation we have an opportunity to build contact networks, to watch their dynamics and to use the knowledge of contacts to understand that it is necessary to make that epidemic went more slowly: for example, whether it is worth closing the subway, or it will slightly affect global risk of spread of a disease. We work on a possibility of creation of models which could be configured flexibly depending on change of input data, connected not only with dynamics of an epidemiological situation, but also those factors which are controlled not so obviously, for example, by "brought in" cases from other cities, actions of superdistributors and so on, — the director of the National center of cognitive developments of the ITMO University Alexander Bukhanovsky explains

Researchers work on creation of the information technology allowing to make the schedule of transport and to organize the movement of people in places of their forced accumulation so that the risk of spread of a disease was minimum, and at the same time the comfort of people as much as possible would remain. Also scientists consider the possibility of the organization of service of interaction of citizens and small business in the conditions of social isolation.

Link

Link to the website of an Internet-application of the ITMO University