Kurbangaleev Maxims

Maxim Kurbangaleev: Black swan and gray rhino of cryptoeconomics

Even in the zero, economists formulated the so-called theory of the "black swan." Such a poetic expression was called some events that are almost impossible to predict, and at the same time they have a serious negative impact on the economy. For example, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic became such a "black swan," which affected all areas of the economy, including the crypto market. Expert Maxim Kurbangaleev claims that in the cryptocurrency industry, almost anything can become a sudden trigger.

Maxim Kurbangaleev on crises in the crypto market

A variety of factors can provoke a jump in cryptocurrency - from a new adopted law to a tweet by Ilon Mask. And such events can affect the course in the most unexpected way.

Maxim Kurbangaleev recalls that during the pandemic, when almost all spheres of the economy were in decline, cryptocurrency literally blossomed. In 2020, Bitcoin grew from $3.8 thousand to $19 thousand, and in 2021 reached a record high of $63.6 thousand.

There are also factors that have had serious negative effects on the market. In China, over the past few years, they have changed the legislative framework under the ban on cryptocurrencies (the official reason is that the government fears money laundering through the digital money market).

In September 2021, the People's Bank of China officially declared any cryptocurrency transactions illegal. Maxim Kurbangaleev says that within an hour after this statement, the Bitcoin exchange rate fell by 6% (about $3 thousand), and another popular digital currency, Ethereum - by 10%.

Opinion leaders - gray rhino market - Maxim Kurbangaleev

Another striking example of influence on the market is Tesla. In March 2021, they provoked a significant rise in cryptocurrency when they announced that they would accept payment for their cars in bitcoins, and Ilon Musk himself invested 1.5 billion in the crypt. However, just a couple of months later, the head of Tesla refused to accept bitcoins, explaining this as an environmental threat that the blockchain carries.

"As soon as Musk reported this on his Twitter, the cost of Bitcoin immediately fell by 10%," says Maxim Kurbangaleev.

In this case, Ilona Mask can be called a kind of "gray rhino" of the market. Maxim Kurbangaleev explains that economists give such a definition to events that, unlike the "black swan," can be predicted, but most often they prefer to ignore them.

For example, for the global world economy, climate change is such a "gray rhino" - a problem that is well known to everyone, but has been ignored by entire generations. The risk of "gray rhino" is much more significant, since such events are much more likely and happen more often.

What does this have to do with cryptoeconomics?

'Bitcoin, like any currency, depends on company news, banks, current legislation and influential players in the market. However, does the currency have the right to be so volatile that it can be brought down by a single post in the influencer's account? "- Maxim Kurbangaleev wonders

Maxim Kurbangaleev: Ecology in the way of blockchain

In 2022, the environmental agenda may become a serious obstacle to the development of the crypto market. The work of the blockchain is based on extremely resource-intensive technology. Along with an increase in the level of mining complexity and equipment requirements, energy consumption also increases.

Today, the main cryptocurrencies (for example, Bitcoin and Ethereum) are still working on outdated technology that spends a huge amount of natural resources and leaves a noticeable carbon trace. Maxim Kurbangaleev emphasizes that today, when the entire world community is moving in the direction of decarbonization, such technologies no longer have the right to exist.

According to Maxim Kurbangaleev, there are several main ways to make the blockchain more environmentally friendly. Already past those days when mining could be done at home, cryptocurrency mining is most often concentrated on centralized stations. Such stations are not difficult to transfer to alternative energy sources.

In addition, new generation blockchain platforms are beginning to appear, operating on the principle of proof-of-stake. To add new elements to the system, huge computing power is no longer required, but to create a new block, miners will need to invest money. The right to supplement the system with a new unit will be granted to the one who makes the highest bet.

Ethereum already in 2022 plans to begin the transition to the proof-of-stake system. Maxim Kurbangaleev hopes that other blockchain platforms will follow this example. An exception can be except Bitcoin.