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2075: Forecast to enter 2nd place in terms of GDP in the world after China
According to Goldman Sachs, announced in July 2023, by 2075 India will overtake the United States and become the second largest economy in the world.
Along with population growth, the forecast is based on the country's progress in innovation and technology, increased capital investment and increased productivity.
2023
The third largest PPP GDP in the world
7% growth forecast
The Indian government is likely to estimate economic growth at 7% in the current financial year, allowing the country to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
Strong consumer and government spending, a robust services sector and a rise in manufacturing have helped support India's economy amid a weakening global economy and six RBI rate hikes since 2022. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has increased infrastructure spending and foreign companies are investing in India, especially technology manufacturing, as they seek an alternative to China.
India's GDP grew 7.8% in the three months to June 2023, driven by strong growth in services and a revival in manufacturing.
2022
GDP estimate - $3.5 trillion
in
India overtakes Britain in GDP size
In August 2022, it became known that India - the former colony - Britain bypassed it in size. GDP He also bit off Britain and - China he intercepted the remnants of influence in. Hong Kong
The third largest PPP GDP in the world
In August 2023, the World Bank updated its PPP GDP estimates for the world at the end of 2022.
India's share of global PPP GDP exceeds 7%
GDP size forecast - $3.3 trillion
2021
GDP size - $2.95 trillion
9.2% growth forecast
In 2021, India is regaining its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy.
GDP will grow by 9.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2022, according to the first official estimate released by the Ministry of Statistics. That's slightly slower than the 9.5% growth forecast by the Reserve Bank of India, as well as economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
However, with one quarter remaining before the end of the fiscal year and new restrictions already in place in some areas of the economy to stop the omicron, the estimate is likely to be revised.
2020: First recession since 1996 due to COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown that followed plunged India into an unprecedented recession.
India is entering its first recession since quarterly data began in 1996.
Yet over 20 years, India's GDP has grown by 440%.
Compared to 2019, GDP decreased by 7.5% in the 3rd quarter. That's down from Bloomberg economists' forecast of 8.2% and better than the record 24% cut in the previous quarter.
2019: Slowdown in growth to 5.8% in the first quarter
2018
3.18% of world GDP, 7th in the world
Three quarters of 2018: + 7.1 %
In the first three quarters of 2018, the Indian economy grew by 7.1% compared to the same period of the previous year. The figure did not live up to economists' expectations - for example, experts interviewed by Bloomberg mostly predicted growth of at least 7.5%. The slowdown in the economy can be attributed to relatively high oil prices and an increase in the cost of servicing borrowed funds. In addition, the country's economy is still suffering from the negative consequences of demonetisation carried out at the end of 2016. However, it can be expected that the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will remain quite soft and will allow India to cope with increased market turbulence without significant damage to the domestic market. Despite this, Coface analysts predict that Indian GDP growth will continue to slow and at the end of the 2018/19 financial year will be ~ 7.3%.
The volume of foreign direct investment in the first three quarters of 2018 fell by 10% compared to the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate of industrial production was 4.5% (compared to + 8.7% in the first nine months of 2017).
Despite the slowdown in economic development in the 3rd quarter of 2018, India remains the leader in GDP growth among emerging markets in Asia, bypassing the Philippines and even China in this indicator. Some signs, however, indicate that the Indian economy will soon face new difficulties that could worsen market growth prospects.
One of the main drivers of Indian economic development remains personal household consumption (58% of GDP), although its volumes fell in 2017-2018 as a result of demonetisation (abolition of 500 and 1000 rupee banknotes) and the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST). Despite the fact that relatively much time has passed since demonetisation, its negative side effects are still affecting the Indian market, since the unofficial sector of the economy has received a tangible blow. The increase in energy prices and the weakening of the rupee also had a negative impact on personal consumption.
The Reserve Bank of India responded to economic difficulties with two key rate hikes - in June and August 2018. The increase in the cost of servicing borrowed funds will continue to negatively affect the growth prospects of the Indian economy. The high share of non-performing assets in the country's banking sector (12% of total assets in March 2018) forces banks to restrict lending, which only exacerbates the debt financing deficit. The problem was also exacerbated by the September default of India's largest non-bank lender IL&FS, which seriously worried entrepreneurs in several key sectors of the Indian economy - for example, in the retail and construction sectors. The difficulty in accessing borrowed funds led to a decrease in investment and a slowdown in industrial production.
2012: + 5.3% in Q1 - minimum growth from 2003 g
In the first quarter of 2012, India's economy grew by 5.3 percent, the lowest since 2003. According to The Financial Times, the decline in economic growth of the third largest economy in Asia is mainly due to the agricultural sector, as well as industrial production. A year earlier in the first quarter, India showed economic growth of 9.2 percent[1].
Economic growth in early 2012 was even worse than during the global economic crisis, which affected India not too significantly. In general, in recent years, GDP in India has been growing by more than eight percent - according to this indicator, the country among major economies was second only to China.
The situation in the Indian economy is complicated by the fact that the rupee is at historical lows against the dollar - on May 31, 2012, 56.5 rupees were given per dollar in the country (44 rupees in the summer of 2011). This may indicate the distrust of foreign investors in the country's economic policy.
Reuters notes that the official results were much worse than analysts' predictions. They, according to the agency's survey, expected an increase of 6.1 percent, with the range of estimates ranging from 5.5 to 7.3 percent.
Several large investment banks at once lowered forecasts for the growth of the Indian economy, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Still, everyone banks predicts that India's GDP growth will be at least six percent until at least 2013.
Notes
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