Evolution of the Internet during the period till 2025

2017: Alphabet militarization of the Internet with machine learning and its disintegration disturbs

Leaders of the industry should think to agree about how to convince the governments of the different countries about inadmissibility of militarization of the Internet using machine learning technologies, the chairman of Alphabet considers.

On February 15, 2017 Eric Schmidt shared the main experiences concerning future Internet: in particular, it is important to trace that the Internet saved the coherence, and the artificial intelligence did not become the tool of its militarization^[1].

"Possibilities of machine learning... should be investigated in open, but not in military scientific laboratories" — he said at the RSA conference concerning the cyber security passing in San Francisco. If the Internet was developed in a close framework of military research laboratories, "we for days on end would worry whether military got into our networks — the Internet had to be closed gradually — Schmidt told. — One of questions to which our industry should attend consists to convince of whether we will be able to find a method the countries to agree about to using the Internet in the military purposes by means of machine learning technologies"

He noted that closer to the end of the term of government of Obama the president of China Xi Jinping and the U.S. President Obama signed the agreement on reduction of number of cyber attacks between these two countries. "According to some information, it worked" — Schmidt reported.

He emphasized how it is important that "the governments of the countries agreed that it is more profitable to us to work together and to support more open Internet".

"I am extremely disturbed by the probability that the countries will begin to interfere with openness and coherence of the Internet" — Schmidt told, having added that the threat of cyber attacks can become a reason for partial access restriction. He insisted that true security does not come down to construction of walls: "Security is the sequence of levels of protection, but not one extremely strong firewall... Security is a lifestyle. If to construct the ideal closed system, it is possible to detect soon that it actually is not neither ideal, nor closed".

Transparent carrying out researches also should help to reduce an abyss meanwhile as AI is perceived by inhabitants (often it is associated with catastrophic effects), and how it is seen by engineers, Schmidt told. According to him, it will help to increase public awareness on advantage which progress in such areas as computer vision can bring.

2010: Research Cisco

On August 25, 2010 the Cisco company and division of global business networks of Monitor Group consulting firm (the world leader in the field of scenario planning) published the report of "The Evolving Internet" (Evolution of the Internet). In the report driving forces and problems of evolution of Worldwide network which, kind of they were combined are analyzed, will define development of the Internet in the next fifteen years.

The basis of the report was formed by research, the data collection and surveys of specialists conducted within a year. Four scenarios which are in detail describing potential ways of evolution of the Internet taking into account the different factors capable to influence this process were as a result made. The first of these scenarios proceeds from usual ideas of expansion and distribution of the Internet and implementation of innovative products and services, but three other scenarios call it in question, indicating risks and also opportunities which heads of business and statesmen can face. Here what is told about it by one of coauthors of the report Enrique Rueda-Sabater (Enrique Rueda-Sabater, the director of the company of Cisco on development of strategy of work in emerging markets): "The following 2-3 billion Internet users will appear, mainly, in emerging markets, and they will differ considerably from the first two billion. With respect thereto global business models and national politicians will fail if rely on former ideas of behavior of Internet users and their preferences".

"We cannot precisely predict future, - other author of the report, one of founders of division of global business networks Monitor Group Peter Schwartz noted, - but we know that the decisions made this year concerning the Internet will have long-term effects. And we hope that our scenarios will help technology and political communities to develop the plan of further actions".

The cross-disciplinary group as a part of the staff of Cisco and division of global business networks Monitor Group considered driving forces and uncertainty which will create the Internet and the market supported by it in 3 trillion dollars during the period from 2010 to 2025. As a result, as it was already told, four evident scenarios which will help the persons making decisions in the technology companies and authorities were received it is better to understand, provide and check the major changes, risks and opportunities that, in turn, will promote that the Internet is more complete implemented the economic and social potential on a global scale. The report structure and outputs which are contained in it are included below.

Five home positions

In the report five major trends which work already today are designated, creating a basis for development of any scenarios about the future of the Internet. These trends cover global structure of the Internet and management of it, differences in behavior of representatives of different generations, the interface technologies and models of tariffing of network connections:

• unlike what we see today further growth of the Internet will happen, generally outside the rich, the "developed" countries;
• global management of the Internet will remain practically without changes;
• "digital savages" will use the Internet at all not as users of the previous generations;
• the QWERTY keyboard will stop being the main interface for Internet access;
• users will receive much more options of payment of Internet connections, than today; flat rates will become a rarity.

Three axes of uncertainty

Other factors of changes remain extremely indefinite, but they can significantly affect the future of the Internet. All these uncertainty can be integrated in three groups:

• how wide (or, on the contrary, limited) will be construction of broadband networks as a result of joint efforts of the state and private sectors?
• Whether there will be high-quality breaks in technical area, or the technology will evolutionarily develop?
• Whether the user demand for resource-intensive applications will develop so rough rates, or these rates will decrease?

Four scenarios

Interaction of above-mentioned uncertainty allows to speak about different scenarios of possible development of the Internet during the period till 2025. Four scenarios considering different problems and alternative ways of development on which our world can go are provided in the report:

• CHANGEABLE BORDERS (FLUID FRONTIERS). The Internet extends on all planet and becomes universal available. Development of technology does network connections and devices more and more cheap (despite limited investments into expansion of networks), and the global entrepreneurship and fierce competition provide fast satisfaction of demand and requirements of customers around the world, irrespective of a technology basis and location.
• UNCERTAIN GROWTH (INSECURE GROWTH). Individual users and corporate customers cannot rely on the Internet surely. Permanent cyber attacks bring to hackers large dividends, and the hacker activity advances preventive measures of state bodies and international organizations. Reliable alternative solutions appear, but their price is too high.
• UNFULFILLED HOPES (SHORT OF THE PROMISE). Era of limited budgets. In many countries economic stagnation slows down development of the Internet. Technology breaks are not observed. In fight against economic difficulties of the government resort to protectionist measures which only aggravate a situation both in the general economic plan, and in the field of distribution of network technologies.
• Software to ALL SEAMS (BURSTING AT THE SEAMS) CRACKS. The Internet falls a victim of own success. Demand for IP services remains boundless, but the shortage of network capacity and periodic emergence of "bottlenecks" create a gap between expectations and reality of use of the Internet. It is not possible to accept the international technology standards because the world begins to resist long-term technology domination of the USA.

Two options of effects

At last, the report offers two options of development of business strategy and the politician on each of scenarios:

• what business models will help you to take in the future a steady and profitable position in the field of the Internet?
• What political problems need to be solved at national and international level?

In the report examples of effects which demonstrate as these or those scenarios are capable to help heads to find opportunities for growth and already today to make the correct decisions on the future are given.

Links

Complete text of the report of "The Evolving Internet" (eng).