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2075: Forecast for 4th largest GDP in the world at $30.3 trillion
2024
Cut growth forecast to 0.8%
The eurozone economy is losing momentum, EU authorities said in February 2024, lowering the forecast. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2024 (1.2% in the previous forecast).
2023
Eurozone plunges into another lost decade - Bloomberg
After the 2008 crisis, the largest macroeconomic trend was a significant lag Europe from. USA It was a big shift in the market. This led to deflation, QE and ECB ultimately a significant drop in the euro/from dollar 1.40 to 1.05. Now it will be the same. The eurozone is lagging again, the agency wrote Bloomberg in March 2024.
GDP at historic high
YeS-27 's GDP growth was only 0.1% YoY and the same for Eurozone countries in Q3 2023.
The European economy had several phases:
- rapid expansion from 1999 to 2Q 2008 (average annual growth 2.2%),
- further severe crisis 2008-2009 and slow exit unlike the United States,
- severe stagnation for three years from 2011 to 2014,
- from 2015 to 2019, steady growth at a rate of 2.1% per annum.
- From the 3rd-4th quarter of 2021 to the 3rd quarter of 2023, there is stagnation, but without disruption during the crisis.
Eurozone GDP in the second quarter of 2023 grew by 0.5% compared to the second quarter of 2022.
As of Q2 2023, Eurozone GDP is at its historic high and 2.6% higher than the Q4 2019 GDP level.
If we compare from Q4 2021 to the moment of the energy and inflation crisis in an aggravated form, the economy grew by 2% in 1.5 years.
Of the data available, there was no macroeconomic damage either in 2022 or 2023. There is stagnation from Q3 2022, but not a recession, but the economy at its maximum.
2022
Industry's share of EU GDP
Ahead of China in terms of growth for the first time since 1974
The eurozone economy grew faster in 2022 than the economies of China and the United States, as the fading COVID-19 pandemic continues to destroy traditional models of global growth.
This is unusual. For decades, the "big three" engines of the global economy had a fairly stable rating: China grew fastest, followed by the United States, and then the eurozone.
The last time the combined economies of the eurozone countries grew faster than those of China or the United States was in 1974.
0.8% growth in Q2
Eurozone GDP in October 2022 grew by 0.2%, in the second quarter it increased by 0.8%. Europe has avoided a recession, but economists surveyed by CNBC predict an economic downturn as early as the fourth quarter.
PwC: China's economy to beat Europe for the first time in 2022
In 2022, China's economy will overtake Europe in volume for the first time and maintain this position in the medium term, PwC analysts say. They announced their forecast at the end of January 2022. Read more here.
2021
Eurozone GDP up 5.2%
Eurozone GDP in 2021 grew by 5.2% compared to 2020. Such data at the end of January 2022 was published by the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat).
In the fourth quarter, GDP in the euro zone reportedly grew by 0.3% and 0.4% in the EU, an increase of 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.
At the same time, in the fourth quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.3% in the eurozone and by 0.4% in the EU compared to the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2021, eurozone GDP grew by 2.3% and 2.2% in the EU.
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According to Bloomberg, the EU economy is coping with difficulties better than before during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as enterprises find ways to cope with restrictions, and more and more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, the agency writes. Increased investment contributed to stronger-than-expected growth in France (0.7%), Spain (2%) and Italy (0.6%).
The economy in Europe at the end of 2021 began to slow down growth. The reason for this was the surge in the incidence of the coronavirus COVID-19, which led to new and changing restrictive measures and restrained consumers from spending on restaurants, hotels and entertainment. Supply chains have also been disrupted in EU member states, leaving the export-oriented euro zone manufacturing sector unable to fully meet orders. In addition, higher oil, natural gas and electricity prices place a burden on businesses and consumers.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also notes that the continuing gap between supply and demand for some goods, combined with rising prices for food and energy, has led to higher and more sustainable inflation than expected.[1]
Agriculture's share of EU GDP
Growth forecast reduced to 3.8%
In February 2021, the European Commission lowered its forecast for eurozone growth in 2021 from 4.2% to 3.8% and said that its forecasts "decisively" depend on measures to contain the COVID-19 coronavirus, which will begin to soften by the end of the second quarter.
2020
2019
2012
On June 29, 2012, Ernst & Young published its forecast and recommendations for the development of the Eurozone economy.
The most favorable scenario: a moderate economic downturn in 2012 and a slow recovery in 2013.
Under any circumstances, given the numerous negative factors, the eurozone economy will recover slowly in 2013 and, presumably, grow by 0.4%.
In 2014, as a gradual departure from strict fiscal policy and the acceleration of global economic growth, the eurozone economy is projected to grow by 1.7%, and in 2015 and 2016 - by 2%.
Despite the fact that the formation of the new Greek government has somewhat smoothed out fears about the collapse of the euro zone, the summer release of the economic forecast for the eurozone countries prepared by Ernst & Young shows that in the next six months the situation in the European economy should deteriorate, which, with a favorable development, will be followed by a sluggish recovery in 2013. At the same time, there are many risks that may make reality worse than forecast, especially if the political leaders of the eurozone countries, whose meeting is to be held this week in Brussels, cannot agree on a mutually acceptable strategy for further action.
The forecast is based on assumptions that Greece will continue to implement the austerity program, and other participants in the euro zone, in particular Spain and Italy, will be able to avoid serious financial shocks in the future. In this case, the unwillingness to accept the risk now observed in the financial markets, as well as in the business environment and among the population, will begin to weaken towards the end of 2012.
The growth rates of individual countries in the region vary greatly, reflecting the widening economic gap between the strongest, predominantly northern, eurozone countries and their southern neighbors. The noticeable difference in economic performance was first noted by us in the economic forecast for the eurozone countries prepared a year and a half ago, and since then this gap has been growing faster. And while some of the strongest eurozone countries avoided recession in 2012 and plan to achieve moderate growth in 2013, the outlook for peripheral countries does not suggest a resumption of economic growth until 2014. At the same time, in peripheral countries, unemployment, especially among young people, has reached a level that poses a potential threat to public stability.
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