Virtualization (Russian Market)

2023-2024: Russian Virtualization Solutions Market: Current Trends and Development Prospects

Results of 2023: change of leaders and high growth rates

The competitive landscape has changed in the virtualization market in 2023. After the departure of VMware, Citrix, Red Hat, Microsoft and other vendors, their shares were redistributed among the remaining players. Russian companies have the opportunity to strengthen their positions and occupy the vacated niches. This led to increased competition and increased development of new products, many new companies and startup projects appeared.

At the same time, despite active pilot projects and testing of Russian solutions, the share of use of VMware and Microsoft Hyper-V products has not changed dramatically. A very large number of customers still use solutions based on them, and the transition to domestic solutions is patchwork. Critical processes have not yet been transferred to Russian products - customers are watching how such solutions work, whether they hold the load well, whether they are stable. According to experts, in 2023 there were a number of significant projects among large customers, but, in general, the market still has room to grow.

Russian developers were not quite ready for a sudden rise in demand. Even the leading domestic manufacturers of virtualization software could not adequately respond to market challenges: their products were not sufficiently developed and functional. At the moment, in 2024, it can be stated that the direction of virtualization systems of Russian development is just beginning to gain momentum, - said Vyacheslav Volodkovich, General Director of Aerodisk.

Setapes based on foreign solutions have not gone anywhere and continue to form the basis of the virtual desktop infrastructure for the vast majority of customers. And the business does not plan to abandon the usual convenience and functionality of VDI. According to some estimates, in 2023 in Russia about 70% of companies used foreign VDIs, 5% of companies - foreign and Russian VDIs at the same time. It is expected that by 2025 this percentage will grow to 15%, - comments Alexander Tarasov, chief system architect of GETMOBIT.

Due to restrictions on access to foreign technologies, many customers were forced to revise their IT strategies and quickly look for alternatives among domestic solutions. The companies also continued to move towards cloud technologies, seeing them as a way to increase the flexibility and efficiency of the business. This stimulated interest in virtualization solutions as the foundation for building private and hybrid clouds.

According to Astra Group estimates, in 2023 the virtualization market grew by 15-20% compared to the previous period. The highest growth rates were shown by the VDI and containerization segments in a software-defined environment.

In the company "Basis" the volume of the segment of virtualization of workplaces for 2023 is estimated at 10 billion rubles. against 8 billion rubles. in 2022, and server virtualization - at 6 billion rubles. The infrastructure services market (server virtualization, container virtualization, VDI, SDS, SDN, etc.) as a whole grew to 57 billion rubles against 46 billion rubles. in 2022.

Data volumes and the need to scale are growing every day. The need to process them efficiently supports a steady demand for virtualization solutions. Software-defined infrastructure is widespread. Given the steady demand for cloud and server technologies, it can be assumed that the virtualization systems market in Russia will continue to show positive dynamics.

The departure of foreign vendors served as an incentive for the development of domestic solutions, causing an increase in demand for them. Subscriptions to foreign software and technical support have finally come to an end, which led to the activation of pilot projects and implementations of Russian solutions, - comments David Martirosov, General Director of Basis.

Interest in domestic solutions is observed from the public sector and large state corporations, which began the process of import substitution before 2022. The choice for domestic products is becoming increasingly clear to a growing number of companies. This is due not only to security and technical support issues, but also to the prospects for the development of technologies and architectures that can reduce technological dependence on foreign developments. In addition, the support of the state and the development of the open source community in Russia play an important role in this process.

At the same time, the process of switching to Russian virtualization systems requires careful testing and analysis of the company's needs. It should be borne in mind that migration to a new platform is a difficult task that requires time and resources, "says Nikita Kazarin, Head of Virtualization and Backup Systems at Softline Group of companies.

The following factors had a key impact on market development in 2023:

• The desire for import independence and minimization of sanctions risks has become the main incentive for the transition to domestic solutions.
• Functional compliance: for almost all companies, the choice of infrastructure software was determined by functional compliance with customer requirements.
• Integration capabilities: Integration with application systems, DBMS and system software has become an important criterion when choosing new solutions.
• The price factor played a significant role in the choice of backup tools and virtualization platforms.

The virtualization platform market has undergone significant changes in 2023 that reflect the adaptation to new conditions and the desire for self-development of virtualization technology solutions. Today, more than a dozen vendor solutions are presented on the market, which testifies to the wide choice and opportunities for consumers, and also emphasizes the ability of the domestic market to independently develop and satisfy the demand for modern technological solutions, - said Pavel Guralnik, CEO of ISPsystem.

The market situation was also influenced by the new rules for certification of the FSTEC of Russia for virtualization and containerization. Using operating systems certified for compliance with the new rules, customers can create secure information systems that meet the requirements of the regulator.

As market participants note, 2022 and 2023 became a time of "rampant expansion" - the number of virtualization solution providers was growing rapidly, more and more potential customers were looking for alternatives to foreign solutions. Many "roadmap 'AMI merchants" appeared - vendors sold not ready-made solutions, but their road maps for 2-3 years in advance. At the same time, not everyone had successful references.

Of course, it is difficult to compete with such "monsters" as VMware, since the number of man-hours and investments invested by the international flagship in the development of their solutions differs by 2 or 3 orders of magnitude from ours. Nevertheless, virtualization software products presented on the Russian market today are developing very quickly and are already able to cover the basic needs of customers, - said Aleksei Shabalin, head of the virtualization systems and cloud technologies department at BASEALT.

Most solutions are based on finished products from the open source world, but this approach carries certain risks. First of all, in terms of security, in addition, the development of such products is not controlled by the vendor himself, but is controlled from the open source community.

By the end of 2023, it could be observed that demand had more or less stabilized. This made it possible for the market to begin forming a basic set of products focused on its own development, which will later become the leaders of the domestic virtualization market, "says Evgeny Karpov, CEO of vStack.

In 2023, the total cost from corporate customers decreased, which is typical for the period of choosing a domestic analogue of foreign products. Nevertheless, the revenue of Russian vendors from the top three in the development of corporate virtualization has multiplied, - said Denis Ageev, founder of the Space trademark, chairman of the board of directors of DAKOM M.

Major Developers of Server Virtualization Platforms

9 companies took part in the ranking of the largest developers of server virtualization platforms (not all participants in this market provided data on revenue in this area). The leader was the company "Basis," the developer of the Basis Dynamix solution. The top three also included Orion soft with the zVirt product and vStack with the vStack HCP platform.

The total revenue of all participants in the rating exceeded 6.4 billion rubles.

Major Developers of Server Virtualization Platforms * by revenue from implementation projects/delivery of own solutions

^{* Rating prepared on the basis of survey of companies
1 - Revenue for 2023, taking into account workplace virtualization - 3028 million rubles.
2 - Revenue for 2023, taking into account workplace virtualization - 625.7 million rubles.
3 - Desktop Virtualization Revenue as Company Cannot Separate VDI Projects
4 - Revenue for 2023, taking into account workplace virtualization - 183 million rubles.}

2024: Stabilization, Adaptation and Price Cuts

In 2024, the trends of the previous year intensified, such as the completion of licenses for products of foreign vendors and the deterioration of technical support. They were added to the deadline established by the government - January 2025 - for the mandatory transfer of critical infrastructure facilities to Russian software and hardware.

Another trend is the growing demand for information security solutions for virtualization platforms such as Basis Workplace Security and Basis Virtual Security. Recent cyber attacks in recent years have forced many companies to pay closer attention to the security of their infrastructure.

Leaders and outsiders have appeared on the market. VMware left Russia more than two years ago, and the systems implemented even three years ago are beginning to become obsolete. Their replacement fits well with the investment rhythms of most companies.

Competition between local players has grown, which in general can be considered as a positive factor stimulating the development of the market. Despite certain challenges, the virtualization solutions market in Russia has demonstrated steady growth. Customers turned to domestic products. The number of implementation projects has increased, especially in the public sector, large corporations and companies with distributed infrastructure. Virtualization remains a key technology for digital business transformation and the transition to flexible and adaptive IT models, "comments Denis Mukhin, Director of Business Development, Director of Virtualization and Cloud Services at Astra Group.

We see the prerequisites for the formation of technological alliances, when the customer buys a virtualization environment with additional mechanisms or on the basis of some kind of hardware, that is, creating so-called hyper-converged solutions. And now market participants are actively negotiating to form such trusted software and hardware complexes. At the same time, there are no large, long-playing projects in the virtualization segment on the market yet. Most of the customers, at least of those with whom our company works, are in a state of waiting, - notes Pavel Korostelev, head of the product promotion department "Security Code."

Developers of Linux distributions, infrastructure platforms with a software interface, as well as various startups are actively investing in the hypervisors segment, highlighting them in separate product lines. This led to a significant increase in the number of companies operating in this area - their number exceeded twenty. Companies that have previously realized the potential of the direction, now take advantage of the accumulated experience. But newcomers entering the market later are already starting to catch up with leaders.

All market participants face a common problem: their products have not yet reached the desired level - solutions to one degree or another are "raw." Despite this, the demand for domestic virtualization solutions does not fall.

As noted by Sergey Chlek, Managing Director of Rosplatforma, customers, faced with the threat of disruption to the performance of their infrastructures, massively make requests for the immediate supply of new systems.

On the one hand, such interest can appear to the vendor positive: it becomes possible to fundamentally expand the client base in a short time, increase revenue. But, on the other hand, this situation cannot but worry, since customers are trying to simply replace the old import system with its Russian counterpart, and this will lead to the creation of new infrastructures built on a patchwork principle, difficult to scale, poorly compatible and insufficiently productive, - says the speaker.

With the increase in the number of suppliers and products on the market, for the first time, a serious decline in prices for Russian virtualization systems began. Previously, there was no real competition even for the most basic products from VMware, but now many alternatives have appeared, which stimulates competition by lowering prices.

In 2024, we are seeing the IT market adapt and stabilize. Russian vendors are developing virtualization products, the demand for server hardware and computing resources is growing. The localization of production is increasing, which is due to both the government's efforts to stimulate domestic production and external restrictions on the supply of technologies to the Russian market. Confidence in domestic virtualization solutions is growing, as they appear reliable and predictable amid political and economic instability. Trust is reinforced by successful cases of implementing and operating domestic solutions, "says Nikita Kazarin, Head of Virtualization and Softline Group of companies Backup Systems.

Another trend in 2024, which is relevant for most customers, especially in the commercial sector, is the creation from scratch of "parallel" IT infrastructures based on Russian solutions, while maintaining the operational characteristics of the existing IT infrastructure. Such a request led to an increase in interest in private and hybrid clouds. According to experts, it is already clear that this trend will continue and even intensify. After all, the implementation of such solutions will allow companies to reduce equipment costs, optimize resource utilization and improve infrastructure scalability.

Containerization is also becoming an increasingly popular technology. It allows you to effectively manage applications and services in a virtualized environment. In addition, customers are increasingly focusing on automation and orchestration technologies that simplify the management and efficiency of virtualized infrastructure.

Among state customers and state-owned companies, the penetration rate of virtualization systems from Russian developers today reaches 70-80%. Over the past few years, all government information systems have been deployed on Russian virtualization solutions. Their share is constantly increasing due to the desire to ensure the security and technological independence of critical information infrastructure.

In the segment of commercial customers, the share of Russian virtualization systems is significantly lower. However, their accelerated transition to domestic solutions stimulates the completion of contracts with foreign vendors and the impossibility of extending them, as well as the lack of necessary technical support from departed foreign vendors, says Pavel Guralnik, CEO of ISPsystem.

According to Denis Ageev, founder of the Space trademark, chairman of the board of directors of DAK M, by the end of 2024 there will be a slight increase compared to 2023, and the main peak of market growth will be in 2025-2026.

Growth Drivers and Restraints

According to Timur Badretdinov, head of the infrastructure software department at SysSoft, in 2024 one of the key drivers will be the deadline fixed in the Ministry of Digital Development 's recommendations for achieving a 100% share of replacement by state corporations and companies with state participation in foreign virtualization tools in their infrastructure. At the same time, as the expert notes, large commercial holdings have also moved to the active stage of piloting Russian solutions and actually forming roadmaps for domestic vendors for the next few years.

Also among the development drivers, experts note an increase in demand for cloud computing using GPUs, an increase in confidence in domestic software, the development of domestic technologies, government support and an increase in demand for IT resources.

However, there are also restraining factors in the way of market development. Despite the growth of domestic production, there is a shortage of computing resources and components. This requires the search for alternative solutions, including hyperconverged systems and software-defined infrastructure.

In addition, the market is negatively affected by:

• lack of qualified specialists to develop and implement infrastructure software. The market is developing intensively, so the demand for personnel is increasingly ahead of supply;
• insufficient functionality of the solutions themselves for large-scale installations;
• low level of digitalization of the infrastructure of companies;
• Complexity of migrating to new platforms
• market inertia. Many companies continue, despite difficulties with licenses and support, to use foreign solutions. However, thanks to import substitution processes, this factor is gradually fading away;
• a large number of small players in the market. For example, only in the field of virtualization, about 50 companies are represented in the register of domestic software. The emergence of new participants and the desire to create their own ecosystems increases competition. However, there is also a tendency for companies to merge, which may entail a decrease in the variety of offers;

Competing solutions go in approximately the same direction, the same functionality is being developed, i.e. the time and resources of the market as a whole are spent inefficiently, and this slows down the achievement of technological sovereignty. In my opinion, the optimal would be the existence of no more than four large players in each segment who would consolidate the market and direct their efforts to improve the quality of products instead of fighting for a place in the sun, "said David Martirosov, CEO of Basis.

• limited investment. Insufficient funding can slow the development and implementation of new products;
• technical difficulties. Compatibility and integration problems may limit the application of domestic solutions;
• competition with foreign products. Despite the departure of foreign vendors, their products are still used by Russian companies.

The products of the departed vendors (VMware, Citrix) work regularly for many, even two years later. Together with the inherent business distrust of domestic solutions, this slows down the transition to Russian virtualization solutions. Another deterrent is the high threshold for entering the new technology. This can be a long period of replacement of the company's IT landscape, which also affects business processes. Not everyone is ready for such a risk, especially when the result is not obvious. But sooner or later, everyone will have to switch to domestic counterparts, - notes Maxim Berezin, director of business development at Orion soft.

What Matters to Customers Today

Virtualization is becoming an increasingly popular and sought-after technology that optimizes resource utilization and improves business process efficiency. In 2024, in search of trouble-free and proven solutions, large customers prefer to conduct pilot projects with domestic developments before their large-scale implementation. This makes it possible to assess the performance, reliability and effectiveness of technologies in practice.

In addition to testing new solutions in pilot zones, there is a trend towards transferring some workloads to these specially created environments. So companies are not only testing new technologies, but also gradually switching to domestic virtualization platforms, minimizing risk and ensuring uninterrupted business processes.

Customers are accustomed to the high quality of foreign infrastructure software and expect comparable stability, scalability and, of course, cost from Russian.

Requests remain the same as before - "give us Russian VMware or Hyper-V." The basic requirements for functionality have not changed - fault and disaster tolerance, simple initial configuration and integration with various equipment, as well as a role-playing access model, - comments Timur Badretdinov, head of the infrastructure software department at SysSoft.

Ivan Sinev, Deputy Head of Infrastructure at ICL Services, notes that requests have become more substantive. Companies are beginning to replace aging virtualization systems.

Domestic vendors are making considerable efforts to comply with client requests, and it should be noted that over the past two years the quality of Russian solutions has increased significantly.

In addition, customers expect an understandable product roadmap, the vendor has its own development team and comprehensive 24/7 support. Additional requests include ease of installation and the ability to self-operate.

According to Evgeny Fedorov, head of the Innostage product area, companies are increasingly paying attention to the safety, reliability and functionality of solutions. It is important that when switching to domestic software, these parameters remain high.

Increasingly, requests began to arise from potential customers to deploy solutions for "private" clouds based on a fully import-substituted circuit - where both equipment and software are domestic, says Denis Afanasyev, head of the cloud CorpSoft24 department.

According to Denis Ageev (DAKOM M), in the first period of sanctions, many Russian vendors with products based on popular open source solutions entered the market. These companies were characterized by minimal investment in development and a high speed of increasing functionality by adding new open source modules to the product. Now the focus is shifting back to companies offering their own proprietary technologies and high-value-added products.

The demand for this approach is due to the offer of unique functions and capabilities that take into account the specific needs of domestic customers. Investing in R&D pays off by creating unique solutions that are difficult for competitors to replicate. With such companies, you can make long-term plans for 5-7 years, the expert is convinced.

After analyzing customer requests, market participants note the following trends:

• Focus on information security and compliance when choosing virtualization solutions.

The prevailing number of companies, especially from the public sector, pay attention to the security of the solutions offered to them: whether secure development (DevSecOps) was used when creating them, whether they are present in the register of domestic software, whether they were certified. In FSTEC particular, positive answers to these questions are strictly mandatory for the implementation of solutions at critical infrastructure facilities (). CUES

• Focus on TCO and ROI.

Customers carefully calculate the cost-effectiveness of projects. Solutions that offer optimal value for money are preferred.

• The need for end-to-end solutions that combine virtualization, management, monitoring, and security.

In 2024, customers choose not just virtualization solutions, but product ecosystems that can close the software infrastructure "turnkey." To do this, all systems must be integrated with each other. Companies need deep technical integration of network virtualization, with a container recorder, analytics and automation.

Compatibility with backup solutions and integration of virtualization disaster tolerance solutions with physical DSS replication are important. Interoperability ensures uninterrupted operation and improves the stability of IT systems.

• The technological maturity of the product, the presence of successful implementations and references from other companies in the industry.

Customers are committed to minimizing the risks associated with new developments. Roadmaps not backed up by cases are looked at much more skeptically.

• When choosing solutions, the reputation of the vendor plays an important role.

Taking into account the variety of offers on the market and the limited availability of information about large implementations, customers begin their study by analyzing vendor data that they can get from the media and other sources. A significant role is played by the prospects for the long-term existence of the vendor. In a dynamic market, customers are looking to select vendors that can provide long-term support and development for the solution they choose. Having many developers on the market implies that only the most competitive and reliable companies will remain afloat, which is also taken into account when choosing solutions.

• Attention to the technical features of the proposed solutions.

It is important for customers to understand which virtualization technologies are used and which management platforms are offered. Such details help to make an informed choice in favor of the most suitable solution.

In addition, customers carefully monitor changes in products (changelist) and compare them with the development roadmap announced by vendors. Real compliance with the promised updates over the past two years becomes an important selection criterion because it reflects the reliability and responsibility of the supplier.

Company requests can vary depending on various factors, such as changes in business processes, security requirements, etc. However, in general, customers are looking for solutions that can meet their specific needs and requirements.

Companies want to be able to easily scale their virtualization solutions to meet changing business needs, access quality support and service to minimize downtime and ensure business continuity, comments ISPsystem CEO Pavel Guralnik.

At the same time, the market is developing a set of partner solutions: virtualization and hardware, virtualization and security, virtualization and backup, and so on. Now this is becoming an important customer preference, it is also of great importance to find the product in the Ministry of Digital Development registry and to have certificates according to the FSTEC requirements for virtualization protection tools. The latter is of key importance for state customers, since in the near future FSTEC will strictly oblige them to buy only what is certified according to the requirements of the department, - notes Pavel Korostelev, head of the product promotion department "Security Code."

According to market participants, the introduction of domestic solutions has become more active, the number of projects has increased by 35-40%, especially among state customers.

Previously, companies were looking for a full-fledged replacement for VMware or other foreign virtualization platforms, trying to shift their approaches to other solutions. Since the end of 2023, we have seen a trend where customers proceed from current tasks and select new solutions based on the current situation. This directly affects the increase in the number of implementation projects, - comments Evgeny Karpov, CEO of vStack.

Most implementations are implemented as part of small or pilot projects. This demonstrates that companies approach the process of integrating new technologies with cautious optimism, assessing potential risks and opportunities before a large-scale implementation.

Large companies conduct long pilots and product testing, this is the standard path of big business, however, even getting into the list of recommended for purchase according to the results of testing does not yet indicate that the customer is ready to implement these solutions. Medium and small businesses often approach the question as "need an analogue/replacement of VMware," which often leads to chaos and confusion. It is wiser to understand exactly what the infrastructure should look like, what requirements a particular customer has for it, and after that, look for a solution that will close the required needs, "says Igor Buday, head of the platform solutions department at MONT Group.

According to Roman Bychkov, Development Director of SharxDC, before the departure of foreign vendors, which were the de facto standard in the industry, customer expectations were formed strictly in accordance with the lists of functional capabilities of these vendors, regardless of the advisability of using certain options. Today, companies focus on the opportunities actually used.

2024 results forecast

By the end of 2024, market participants expect a noticeable increase in the number of system implementation projects. virtualizations Especially in large corporations, organizations with a distributed branch network, public sector companies. Virtualization becomes an integral part of digital transformation and modernization programs. IT infrastructures First of all, projects will be implemented to replace server virtualization with entire clusters at once, and not freestanding ones. servers Also, as a flexible scenario for switching to Russian operating systems, a number of customers consider the option of deploying a virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI).

Sanctions pressure and restrictions on Western IT products and technologies will continue to stimulate demand for domestic counterparts, supporting the trend towards import substitution. In addition, increased attention to information security and data protection will also contribute to the transition to Russian virtualization solutions, which can offer a higher level of control and reliability for users.

According to forecasts of the company "Basis," the workplace virtualization market will grow by another 2 billion to 12 billion rubles, server virtualization - from 6 to 7 billion rubles. The infrastructure services market as a whole will grow to 70 billion. Experts suggest an increase in license purchases with delayed implementation, which will also stimulate market growth.

The company "Aerodisk" predicts growth in the region of 15-20% against the background of the general growth of the economy and the role of the IT industry in these processes. Moreover, this dynamics will continue for several years.

As soon as Russian solutions grow to the capabilities of leading tools in terms of functionality, the share of our products in this segment will begin to change from the current range of 10% -20%, "said Vyacheslav Volodkovich, General Director of Aerodisk.

At the same time, the speaker notes that the market will face characteristic growth problems. This will be expressed in an increase in the number of reviews of errors and more serious shortcomings after the initial launch and testing of products. Fixing these problems will take considerable effort and time, which will inevitably slow down the development of new features. Economic difficulties will be added to technical difficulties. In the face of intense competition, many companies will find that they need to return investments in development, which can cause a certain number of projects in this segment to "burn out."

All these problems are likely to lead to a decrease in the number of market participants. More resilient will be those companies that can focus on improving the stability and reliability of their products, as well as fixing bugs. In the most advantageous position will be developers who have begun to develop their solutions to most of their competitors.

According to Pavel Guralnik, CEO of ISPsystem, customer attention will shift towards more innovative and technologically advanced solutions, and suppliers will strive to adapt their solutions to changing customer requirements, including security, integration, and data management. These trends point to market growth and opportunities for new virtualization solutions.

Nikita Kazarin, Head of Virtualization and Backup Systems at Softline Group of Companies, notes that the growth dynamics may restrain the limited market in terms of the availability of various solutions and competencies. This can affect the speed of transition to domestic products. Also, uncertainty about the long-term viability and support of some Russian developments may become a potential obstacle.

Throughout the year, the market will be characterized by active search and testing of new virtualization solutions developed by Russian companies as part of pilot projects and initiatives. This, in turn, should contribute to faster improvement of technologies and increase their competitiveness.

For effective and explosive growth, Russian VDI solutions need to take a qualitative leap in remote access management. New features should be improved and implemented, primarily in the field of remote access protocols. I think that the task of Russian solutions for the next year or two is to approach the level of thin clients HP and Wyse, - comments Alexander Tarasov, chief system architect of GETMOBIT.

The number of projects for the implementation of Russian platforms will increase, as customers begin to develop an understanding that they will no longer be able to return to using their usual products.

It is likely that the Russian virtualization market will continue to develop in the direction of strengthening and expanding domestic production and development, ensuring the need for modern and secure IT solutions.

What awaits the market in the future

Many companies will strive to minimize sanctions risks and ensure technological independence. Import substitution of server virtualization and VDI systems will last for the next 4-5 years. The share of open source and commercial Russian solutions will grow steadily, and the share of outdated versions of foreign software will decrease. At the same time, the public sector will actively switch to specialized cloud platforms (GosTech).

The trend of creating an infrastructure based on cloud providers will continue. The global trend towards clouds will continue to gain momentum in Russia. According to iKS-Consulting estimates, in 2022 the volume of the Russian cloud market IaaS amounted to 80.4 billion rubles. (+ 35% by 2021), the PaaS market - 17 billion rubles. (+ 45 %). Virtualization as a core cloud technology will play a key role in this transformation. The active development of domestic cloud platforms will create a favorable environment for software-defined infrastructures.

An explosive increase in the use of Kubernetes and containers for developing cloud native applications is expected. 451 Research estimates that 85% of organizations will use Kubernetes in a productive environment by 2025. This architecture allows you to fully unleash the potential of a virtual infrastructure, provide flexibility and speed of digital service output. The focus of attention will be on domestic orchestration distributions and the ecosystem for their operation.

In the context of sanctions and the absence of Western vendors, the Russian virtualization market in 2025 and in the coming years is likely to face a number of challenges and opportunities that will determine its dynamics.

• Accelerated development of domestic solutions will stimulate sanctions pressure and limited access to products of Western vendors. Experts expect an increase in investment in development, which will lead to improved quality, increased fault tolerance and expanded functionality of Russian products.
• Import substitution and state support will have a significant impact on the market, stimulating the growth and development of the industry. Migration to domestic platforms will continue.
• Cooperation with Asian and other non-Western countries may intensify in the process of searching for alternative technologies. This will provide access to modern solutions and components for the development of the virtualization industry.
• The focus on security and reliability will be strengthened as cybersecurity threats grow and critical infrastructure needs to be protected.
• Adapting to market conditions will require a review of IT strategies and infrastructure optimization with a focus on domestic virtualization solutions.
• The development of the ecosystem of open source software can receive an additional impetus under conditions of sanctions pressure, which will contribute to the formation of more flexible and adaptable IT systems, will lead to the emergence of more complex solutions.
• Continued use of the sanctions software will be typical for some Russian customers, despite the lack of updates and official support. Under such conditions, companies will be forced to look for non-standard solutions to ensure the safety and stability of systems.
• An important role will be played by the level of digital maturity of the regions, as it is directly related to the transition to domestic software products.
• The market is expected to continue to grow, building on increased demand for supercomputers to meet artificial intelligence challenges.

The company "Basis" notes that the market as a whole will grow by about 15-25% per year, depending on the segment, and in 2027 it will cross the mark of 100 billion. Desktop and server virtualization segments will also grow, but at a slower pace, adjacent segments, such as automation tools and container virtualization, will show better results. Software defined storages (SDS) and networks (SDN) are also promising directions. With the increase in the market, the demand for complex solutions will grow.

The main drivers will be the implementation of the national program for the digitalization of the economy, combined with the need to achieve technological sovereignty in both state and commercial companies.

In the next few years, the transition to import-substituted software will be carried out not only by companies that fall under CII, but also by everyone else. Already, a different approach of customers is observed, many companies are moving to the stage of adopting the current situation, which means that in the future of several years not only pilot projects are expected, but also large implementations along the entire horizontal of import substitution.

We are waiting for the growth of transformation projects, part of which will be the implementation of domestic virtualization. Typically, virtualization does not change one-to-one. As a rule, this is a more comprehensive project. For example, by the end of 2025, companies must isolate the part of the infrastructure that falls under the definition of CII. And this is a good reason to introduce domestic systems. In 2025, the age of the current systems will become highly critical. And most likely we will have a large number of implementations of domestic production solutions, "says Ivan Sinev, Deputy Head of Infrastructure at ICL Services Data Center.

In addition, the market will consolidate around several large domestic developers. The main success factors will be ease of implementation and operation, openness and compatibility, wide possibilities of automation and integration with modern development environments. The ability to build strong product ecosystems, service partners, and expertise around virtualization platforms will be critical. As a result of consolidation, several strong developer companies will remain, developing their ecosystems and able to compete with global giants.

On the horizon of 3-4 years, the market for developers of enterprise virtualization products is strongly consolidated. In my opinion, there will be no more than 3-4 high-tech players with the opportunity to invest in "long" developments, - said Denis Ageev, founder of the Space trademark, chairman of the board of directors of DAK M.

In the future, 3-4 years, it is possible to reduce the number of market participants with dynamics from "rounded" twenty to five to six obvious leaders with adequate offers to the market. Further, a new round of competition will begin between the remaining, "surviving" leaders - through the development of point functionality, on top of the basic capabilities of products of this class. It is difficult to talk at what speed and in which direction this round will go, but the general vector of market movement is obvious, "predicts Vyacheslav Volodkovich, General Director of Aerodisk.

The weaker players in technical or commercial terms will leave, giving their shares to the leaders, there will be a certain stratification, which will mean the transition of the market to the stage of maturity.

According to our estimates, more than 80% of the market for the departed VMware has not yet been replaced - therefore, its "seizure" by Russian vendors will not slow down. It can change qualitatively - large-scale federal projects will appear that will require trouble-free virtualization solutions, with powerful information security protection and high-quality technical support. The requirements of regulators to transfer critical infrastructure to domestic solutions will strengthen, - comments Maxim Berezin, director of business development at Orion soft.

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