PNIPU: Mathematical model for assessing data security threats

The main articles are:

• Big Data
• DLP - Data Loss/Leak Prevention

2025: Introduction of Company Information Security Threat Assessment Method

The development of scientists from the Perm Polytechnic will make it possible to effectively assess threats to the information security of companies. The university announced this on February 18, 2025.

Huge amounts of important information that companies and government agencies have are increasingly difficult to protect amid the rapid development of digital technologies and cybercrime. An important task is to ensure a high level of security of enterprise data from illegal access. Before creating a protection system, you need to carefully analyze all kinds of threats, the likelihood of their occurrence and possible consequences in order to understand what to pay attention to first and how to organize the protection of information. The difficulty lies in the fact that in such an analysis, sometimes you have to simultaneously take into account a lot of nuances and features of information systems. To simplify this process, Perm Polytechnic scientists have developed a mathematical model that will help automate the assessment of data security threats. This will increase the efficiency and efficiency of experts, contributing to more reliable protection of valuable information.

The article was published in the journal "Innovative Technologies: Theory, Tools, Practice," vol. 1, 2022. The study was carried out as part of the Priority 2030 strategic academic leadership program.

The information security of companies is extremely important for preventing cyber attacks, leaks of personal data of customers and enterprises themselves, fraudulent manipulations. This is the key to maintaining financial well-being, reputation and competitiveness. Assessing security threats helps you understand what a security system should be, how to design and upgrade it. This allows you to ensure the required level of protection against access by intruders.

The problem is that as of February 2025 Russian , there is a shortage of qualified specialists in this area in the labor market, and either less knowledgeable workers or third-party specialists have to do the work. This can lead to an incorrect assessment, vulnerabilities an incorrectly developed security strategy, and data therefore to their insufficient protection. In addition, sometimes it is necessary to take into account so many nuances and variables at the same time that even experienced specialists can face difficulties.

In order to automate this task, scientists at the Perm Polytechnic University have developed a model for assessing threats to information security. It is a set of equations from which a graphical diagram is created showing the relationship of different variables. It allows you to speed up and simplify the work of experts by organizing large amounts of data.

The map is created as follows: First, the specialist collects data and compiles a list of factors that can affect information security - for example, hardware and software, network infrastructure, users. It then identifies possible security threats - vulnerabilities, attacks, fraud, and other factors. Our mathematical model is needed to calculate the probability of these events. With its help, an expert can build a visual diagram that will clearly show the relationship between all events. This allows you to assess various scenarios for the development of events and develop recommendations for improving the information protection system, "said Anna Ozhgibesova, Assistant of the Department of Automation and Telemechanics, Leading Engineer of the Faculty of Electrical Engineering.

We offer a visualization method for working with large amounts of data. It is a diagram in the form of a graph, which consists of vertices (concepts) connected by edges (connections). Each concept shows some state (for example, "there is a vulnerability" or "information leak"). Lines show how one state affects another. If something has changed in one concept (for example, a new vulnerability has appeared), then this change is transmitted over lines to others, and as a result, the entire network comes into a new state. So you can see how the new vulnerability will affect the overall security of the system, - said Andrei Shaburov, associate professor of the Department of Automation and Telemechanics at PNIPU, candidate of technical sciences.

The model developed by Perm Polytechnic scientists simplifies and facilitates the analysis of information threats. It allows you to identify key threats and develop recommendations for improving the protection system. Scientists are continuing research and in the future plan to create a program to implement this model using a neural network.