Importation. Should we expect that foreign IT vendors will come to Russia again? TAdviser score
Since the beginning of 2022, the Russian IT market has changed cardinally. The massive departure of Western vendors, the accelerated policy of import substitution, the development of local solutions - all this seriously changed the balance of power. However, in 2025, against the background of geopolitical changes and rhetoric about the possible normalization of relations, the question increasingly sounds: will the departed IT companies return? And if so, in what format? The question of the return of foreign IT companies rests on several key factors at once: the strategic priorities of the vendors themselves, the readiness of customers to resume cooperation, state regulation and the reaction of Russian developers. Alexander Zhilyaev, an expert at the TAdviser analytical center, discusses how these factors can affect the further development of the situation.
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Global Vendor Readiness: Potential Profits and Real Risks
For Western companies, the Russian market has always been attractive, but its share in the revenue of large IT vendors was about 1-1.5% of global revenue. After leaving, the potential market volume decreased: some customers have already migrated to domestic solutions, access to some sectors is closed by regulatory measures or sanctions lists, some customers have simply lost confidence and are not ready for cooperation. Thus, the available volume of the Russian market is significantly less than 1% of global business. And you need to take into account not only potential profits, but also risks.
One of the main risks is the high cost of leaving the market, which many companies have already paid once. In 2022-2023, the largest IT corporations, such as, Microsoft,, and IBM SAP, Oracle Intel wrote off hundreds of millions dollars in connection with the departure from - Russia figures commensurate with the annual revenue of their Russian offices.
Now the cost of exit is becoming even more significant due to the increase in the "exit tax" (mandatory payments to the budget have been increased to 35% of the value of transactions from the sale of assets, and the mandatory discount to the value of the sale of assets has been increased to 60%).
It also makes sense to consider the reputational risks that arise in connection with the termination of contracts with partners and customers. Many legal proceedings are still going on, and they have their influence on the likelihood of renewed business relations in the future.
As of the beginning of 2025, the international political situation is unstable, there are no guarantees that the current change in agenda is a long-term trend, and a reverse turn of 180 degrees is quite likely, for example, in four years. Therefore, in order to return "seriously and for a long time," it is worth waiting for a more sustainable foundation for making a decision.
Customers: Are they willing to trust again?
Even if individual vendors return, it is not a fact that they are expected with open arms. This is especially true for cloud solutions, whose users are faced with a simultaneous shutdown of services, and in some cases with the inability to save their own data.
As a result, confidence in such services has been undermined, and the likelihood that customers will want to build key processes on their basis again is extremely low.
Foreign vendors who will offer solutions according to the on-premium model will have a better chance of seeing the demand for their products in Russia.
On the other hand, large corporate clients whose IT landscape was and remains built on foreign solutions (for example, in the segment of ERP systems) may be interested in partial restoration of interaction. However, even in this case, we are talking more about the possibility of receiving updates and technical support than about a full-scale return to the previous model of work. At least in the future of the next few years.
Government regulation: barriers or opportunities?
Government policy towards foreign vendors remains an important factor. Obviously, the priority for the development of domestic solutions will remain, especially in such critical areas as cybersecurity and critical infrastructure management, and in the public sector as a whole. The return of foreign companies is unlikely to be encouraged at the legislative level. Most likely, additional mechanisms for protecting the domestic market will appear, including new requirements for localization, certification and compliance with regulatory acts, and new conditions for leaving the market will be presented to those foreign vendors who decide to return to the Russian market.
At the same time, authorities representatives are well aware that not all IT solutions have been effectively replaced, and many enterprises in certain industries remain dependent on specialized software, the level of import substitution in certain segments of system and infrastructure software is still low. Therefore, the authorities should not wait for insurmountable obstacles for foreign vendors either.
Russian vendors: competitive resistance
Another factor that will affect the speed of return of foreign vendors is the reaction of Russian IT companies. Over the past two years, domestic developers have occupied the vacant niches, mature and competitive solutions have been formed in certain segments of the applied corporate software market. Here, much will depend on the readiness of Russian vendors to consolidate efforts and resources (there are many similar products on the market from small companies with limited resources), enter the price struggle for the client and occupy specialized niches - both industry and functional.
Obviously, some IT companies at the first opportunity will again change into distributors and integrators of Western solutions and create a platform for their return to the Russian market.
Which return scenario is most likely?
With a high degree of probability, even if Western IT companies decide to return, their model of operation will differ significantly from the previous one. Full restoration of offices and large local divisions in the coming years should not be expected. A more realistic scenario is a gradual return through partner channels, restoration of software distribution, delivery of updates and technical support.
The first steps are likely to be taken by providers of B2C solutions (operating systems, office software, cloud services for end users), as well as manufacturers of equipment (PCs, laptops, mobile devices) for personal use. To access these segments, foreign manufacturers need to restore the operation of payment systems and supply channels.
For suppliers of corporate application systems, infrastructure software and equipment, the path back will be much more difficult, due to the reasons indicated above. Of course, it will be easier for those who left to return, preserving the face and loyal base of customers and partners. There are such vendors, and some Russian companies will certainly be happy to return them. First of all, we are talking about companies that have made a strategic decision to stay on Western systems, as well as those who did not find a worthy alternative to specific software from Russian manufacturers.
In general, the idea of a "mass return" of foreign vendors so far looks more like a theoretical discussion than a near future.
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