Energy Watch Group (EWG)

2018: Research: 100% transition to renewable energy in 2050 are more profitable than present power supply system

More profitable in comparison with a present power generating system also leads transition to 100% use of renewable energy in all countries of Europe to reduction of emissions to zero by 2050. Researchers of EWG in the research which results were published in December, 2018 came to such conclusion. The research models full-scale transition to renewable energy in the electrical power, heatsupplying and transport sector.

Against the background of discussion by world leaders of the climatic agenda at an annual 24th Conference of member countries of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the new report confirming a possibility of transition of all energy sectors in Europe on 100% providing with renewable energy sources was published. New scientific research shows that complete transition to renewable energy sources, from the economic point of view, can compete with the traditional system based on fossil and nuclear fuel and will allow to reduce by 2050 emissions of greenhouse gases to zero. Financial justification of the project of power transition becomes even more convincing if to take into account the predicted growth of jobs and indirect economic advantages to health protection, security and environment protection which were not considered in a research.

The first scientific research such, conducted by the Lappeenranta technology university and Energy Watch Group, models full-scale transition of Europe to renewable types of energy in the electrical power, heatsupplying and transport sector and the sector of desalting of water by 2050. Results of a research are published after four and a half years of data collection, technical and financial modeling, research and analytical works in which 14 scientists took part.

"The report confirms that transition to 100% use of renewable energy sources in all sectors is feasible and will not lead to increase in costs in comparison with the power generating system existing today — the ex-deputy of parliament of Germany and the president of Energy Watch Group Hans - Josef Fell said, speaking at the Conference. — The report also shows that Europe can pass to a power generating system with zero emissions. Therefore the European leaders can and should do much more for protection of climate, than becomes today".

Main outputs of a research:

• Power transition will demand carrying out large-scale electrification in all power industries. Cumulative electricity generation in 2050 by four-five times will exceed the level of 2015. In 2050 more than 85% of demand for primary energy will fall on electricity. At the same time fossil and nuclear types of fuel will be forced completely out from all industries.

• In the system based on 100% use of renewable energy, production of electricity will be based on the following types of sources: photo-electric solar energy (62%), wind energy (32%), hydraulic power (4%), bioenergy (2%) and geothermal power (<1%).

• In 2050 about 94% of cumulative production of electricity will fall on wind and solar energy. About 85% of renewable energy will be delivered by the decentralized local and regional production.

• 100% use of renewable energy sources does not lead to increase in costs: during a transient period the rated cost of energy (levelised cost of energy) in a stable power generating system of Europe remains in the range of 50-60 Euros/MWh.

• The annual volume of emissions of greenhouse gases in Europe steadily decreases during all transient period in all sectors approximately from 4200 MtCO2 eq. in 2015 to zero in 2050.

• The power generating system which is completely based on renewable energy will provide from 3 to 3.5 million jobs. About 800,000 jobs in the European coal industry for 2015 will be liquidated by 2050, however it more than is compensated by creation over 1.5 million new jobs in the sector of renewable energy.

"Results of a research convincingly show that achievement of goals, delivered by the Parisian agreement, can and should be accelerated — professor in the field of solar economy of the Lappeenranta technology university (Finland) Dr. Christian Breyer said. - Transition to 100% net, renewable energy is absolutely real, already now, with those technologies which we have today".

In conclusion the research provides political recommendations for assistance to operational implementation of renewable energy sources and technologies of zero emissions. Among the main measures recommended by the report it is possible to call assistance to connection of sectors (sector coupling), to private investments, tax benefits, legislative stimulation and simultaneous failure from subsidizing of production of coal and fossil types of fuel. The report shows that with serious political support transition to 100% use of renewable energy sources can be implemented even before 2050.

Modeling of transition of Europe to renewable types of energy is performed within the research "The World Power Generating System Based on 100% Use of Renewable Energy Sources" which is financed by the German federal fund of the environment (DBU) and Stiftung Mercator fund. The modern technique of modeling developed by the LUT-university allows to calculate a combination of technologies, optimal in terms of the costs, based on available sources of renewable energy, around the world, separated into 145 regions, and to define the most profitable way of power transition to within an hour counting on all basis year. Modeling of transition of all world energy sector is performed for the periods of five years from 2015 to 2050. Results are integrated on nine main regions of the world: Europe, Eurasia, Middle East and North Africa, Tropical Africa, countries of South Asian association of regional cooperation (CAAPK), Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and South America.

See Also

• Alternative power engineering (Russia and world)