Mainframe Mainframe

Used to host commercial databases, process transactions, and run end-to-end applications that require unparalleled sustainability, integrity, security, and availability. Mainframes seamlessly support thousands of concurrent I/O operations, serve users globally, and process up to a billion transactions per day.

2025: Global mainframe sales hit $5.33 billion for the year

In 2025, the global mainframe market grew to $5.33 billion. Approximately 40% of global costs came from the North American region. Such data are presented in a study by Mordor Intelligence, the results of which TAdviser got acquainted with in mid-December 2025.

Mainframe is a large, high-performance and fault-tolerant computer designed to handle huge amounts of data and perform critical tasks in various organizations - banks, insurance companies, government agencies, etc. These systems are designed for continuous operation in 24/7 mode, which is achieved due to the redundancy of key components and the possibility of hot replacement of units. Mainframes can support multiple applications and workloads at the same time, including databases, enterprise systems, and transactional processes. Built-in encryption modules and a special architecture provide reliable information protection.

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Фото: Wikipedia

One of the drivers of the analytics market is called the integration of artificial intelligence. In particular, neural networks automate routine tasks, speed up the processing of large amounts of information and reduce the number of errors. Generative AI and agent automation help rewrite and optimize legacy mainframe code. Modern systems are equipped with specialized chips to speed up AI computing (for example, the IBM z17 platform with eight-core Telum II processors). AI enables mainframes to efficiently perform complex, resource-intensive tasks such as predicting demand, analyzing medical data, and detecting fraud. Mainframes are increasingly integrating with cloud platforms, combining reliability with the flexibility of AI technologies.

The industry is positively impacted by the rapid growth of digital transactions in real time. Mainframes, as noted by Mordor Intelligence, handle 90% of all credit card transactions in the world and provide millions of transactions per second. High availability and maximum reliability make such hardware platforms the centerpiece of payment and settlement systems. The market development is facilitated by the strict requirements of regulators for digital operational stability.

At the same time, a number of restraining factors stand out. These include significant mainframe acquisition and licensing costs and higher total cost of ownership than public cloud alternatives. In addition, there is a shortage of skilled mainframe skills.

Local installations dominate the deployment type, but the Mainframe-as-a-Service cloud model is rapidly gaining popularity. In terms of application, the BFSI sector (banking, financial services and insurance) leads; high growth rates are recorded in the retail and e-commerce segment. Hardware accounts for about half of the costs, while the rest of the costs are divided between software and services. Globally, IBM, Fujitsu, BMC Software, Unisys Corporation and Broadcom are named as major industry players.

Mordor Intelligence analysts believe that future CAGR (compound percentage CAGR) in the global mainframe market will be 6.02%. Thus, by 2030, expenses may increase to $7.14 billion. The Asia-Pacific region is showing the highest positive dynamics.^[1]

2023: Global mainframe market up 5.2% to $4.79 billion for the year

At the end of 2023, the global mainframe market reached $4.79 billion. For comparison, a year earlier, costs in this area were estimated at $4.55 billion. Thus, growth was recorded at 5.2%. Such indicators are given in a study by Market Research Future, the results of which were released in mid-August 2024.

Analysts note that the key drivers of the industry are: the continued adoption of cloud services, the rapid increase in the volume of information generated, the need for effective big data analytics, and the growing demand for secure and reliable infrastructure. In addition, the development of the market is stimulated by the introduction of applications based on artificial intelligence. In addition to this expansion of the mainframe industry, increased use of hybrid cloud and high-performance computing (HPC) is contributing.

Mainframes are ideal for HPC applications because they can provide the required scalability, performance, and reliability to perform complex data modeling and analysis, the report said.

Among the main industries in which mainframes are used are banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), the public sector, healthcare, manufacturing and retail. In 2023, the BFSI segment took the largest market share due to the growing adoption of mainframe to support major banking applications, fraud detection and risk management. Mainframe demand is expected to increase in the public sector due to the need to deploy secure and reliable systems to manage data from citizens and defense enterprises.

Among the key players, analysts name Infosys, Unisys, Tietoevry, Hitachi, IBM, Oracle, CSC, TSystems, NEC, Micro Focus, NPE, Broadcom, Fujitsu and Dell. At the same time, IBM is the absolute leader. The mainframe industry's core players are said to have focused on innovation and the development of new technologies to gain a competitive advantage. Leading companies are investing heavily in research and development, which stimulates the development of the market.

According to the deployment model, the authors of the study divide the industry into local, cloud and hybrid segments. In 2023, the lion's share - about 70% - fell on the local sector, which is due to strict security rules and the need for compliance. However, it is expected that until 2032 the highest growth rates will be observed in the cloud segment.

From a regional point of view, North America holds a significant share due to the presence of leading technology companies and the early introduction of advanced technologies. Europe is another big market: here the need for mainframes is stimulated by digital transformation in various industries. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see significant growth, boosted by rapid urbanization and government initiatives to develop digital infrastructure. South America, the Middle East and Africa will also grow steadily, analysts said, as businesses adopt state-of-the-art technology to improve efficiency and competitiveness. Market Research Future believes that in the future, the CAGR (compound percentage CAGR) in the global mainframe market will be 5.27%. As a result, by 2032 the volume of the industry will reach $7.6 billion.^[2]

2020: You can't leave the upgrade

In the spring of 2020, the research agency Coleman Parkes conducted an online survey Mainframe Modernization Business Barometer Report of 400 people working in European and American enterprises with a minimum annual turnover of $1 billion. These enterprises operated from 1 to 9 mainframe computers (on average, 4 such computers worked in the company^[3].

The average age of mainframes is 17 years (8% had "completely new" machines, under 10 years old; 64% of mainframe computers were in service from 10 to 20 years, 28% - from 20 to 30 years).

In the course of the study, Coleman Parkes analysts found out the attitude of respondents to replacing mainframe computers with more modern systems and why such projects ended unsuccessfully.

According to the report, despite the difficult economic situation in recent years, the level of modernization of corporate systems in the world is quite high. So, over the past three years, respondents have updated 96% of CRM systems, 97% of ERP, 96% of sales and marketing systems. 34% of respondents said that modernization helped business accelerate digital transformation, 33% - respond faster to market changes. The result of 30% of the modernization programs was an improvement in customer relations.

For 2020, almost all companies have plans to update. 60% of respondents believe that otherwise they will lag behind competitors, 33% - that replacing legacy systems will allow their company to respond more quickly to market changes, 34% said that such modernization will accelerate digital transformation projects.

Many of them want to replace the mainframe/COBOL bundle with more modern software and hardware. Most often, their IT systems are considered outdated in human resources services (36%), followed by operating (29%) and financial (23%). At the same time, surprisingly, among the top management there are differences in views on the need to modernize financial systems. A third of operating managers believe that these decisions need to be modernized, among seemingly intensely interested CFOs in this process, only 15% adhere to this point of view. The study concludes that financiers have a worse understanding of the importance of the problem, although it can be assumed that they better understand what modernization costs.

98% of respondents said they needed to replace legacy applications with cloud ones.

However, the mentioned ERP and CRM systems are well-known industrial solutions, with the implementation of which vendors or consultants can help. With mainframe applications, everything is more complicated, they are often "self-written," closely, and not always understandable, interact with other legacy business systems (also often self-written), and the risks when making changes to the enterprise IT landscape are significantly higher.

Therefore, not all companies have a smooth mainframe replacement process. 74%, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed, said they had started a modernization program but were never able to complete it. The two main causes of failure are fear of change and lack of funding. Which is also often associated with a reluctance to allocate money for an event that is dangerous to the company's business.

As a result, only 12% of IT managers said that in terms of funding modernization projects, management fully supports them, and 56% said that funding is hindered by fear of change.

At the same time, higher-ranking executives receive more substantial support: 53% of Chief information officers and 42% of CFOs say that the top management of their companies is entirely for updating IT systems.

However, there is no agreement on some issues and among directors: almost half (48%) of "financiers" believe that the main factor that should be taken into account when assessing the time that the modernization program will take is the number of mainframes involved in the process. Among Chief information officers such, only a third. Moreover, there are discrepancies among IT employees of different levels in assessing the importance of some aspects of modernization. 36% of IT architects and 41% of IT managers believe that automatic code conversion of outdated programs will save a lot of time. Among Chief information officers, only 9% hold this opinion.

On the one hand, it can be assumed (as Coleman Parkes analysts did) that Chief information officer "got off the ground" and forgot what manual code transfer is. On the other hand, the operating and CFOs, who are practically guaranteed not to understand the problems of porting applications, are also for automation (26% and 31%, respectively). Therefore, it can be assumed that Chief information officer, in fact, simply better understand the progress of work and have a clearer idea of ​ ​ how much automatic funds will then have to be cleaned up manually.

Thus, there are enough difficulties with the transition to new technologies, however, it is believed that it is dangerous to remain on mainframes. Among the consequences of maintaining the status quo, most respondents pointed to the difficulty of integrating legacy systems with modern technologies. The second most frequent response was difficulties in recruiting suitable specialists.

Don't rush to bury them

Although mainframe computers are seen by many in the cloud age as something outdated, not everything is so clear-cut. For example, BMC's 2019 New Wave of Mainframe Success states that these computers are capable of meeting the ever-changing demands of the digital transformation business. The three key mainframe success factors that stand out in BMC are the high level of flexibility and integration capabilities; availability of predictive automation tools, as well as security risk management tools. Therefore, many customers continue to use this platform, and among young specialists there is an increase in interest in these "dinosaurs."

According to this report, the majority of respondents (93%) believe in the platform's prospects - it now has the highest "level of trust" since 2013, and believe that mainframe computers will support significantly more compared to previous years of new workloads (52%), and 59% of executives are confident in the capabilities of mainframe as a platform for business growth (versus 51% in 2018).

Therefore, according to analysts, the mainframe market is growing and will grow in the near future, albeit at a modest pace, by 3-5% per year according to various estimates. For example, Orbis Research gives a forecast of 2.7%: from 4771.6 in 2019 to $5316.2 million in 2025. Despite the growth of cloud computing, these computers remain an integral part of the IT infrastructure of many organizations, including those internationally known as Visa, WalMart and Citigroup.

2019:93% of specialists believe mainframe load will grow

On December 4, 2019, DIS Group announced that BMC Software, one of the manufacturers of IT management solutions, conducted a survey on the problems and prospects of mainframe computers. More than 1,100 company executives and IT professionals participated in the survey. Respondents remain confident in the high potential for mainframe development and the benefits of their modernization. And today's mainframes continue to meet the ever-changing demands of the business, despite the digital transformation.

93% of specialists believe that the load on mainframe computers will grow. 59% - that this growth will be due to the migration to mainframes of the execution of emerging tasks in addition to the current ones.

The respondents also spoke about the main priorities for working with mainframes. For managers and IT professionals, the main priority is to reduce costs (61% and 68%, respectively). Also, both noted the importance of compliance with regulatory requirements, information security (information security), application availability and modernization.

Attention to information security is no coincidence. 77% of respondents stated that they faced incidents in the field of information security or with threats of such incidents. 92% of respondents said that they are audited in this area every two years.

In Russia and the CIS, one of the distributors of BMC Software is DIS Group.

Information security and cost reduction are the most important priorities for Russian companies. That is why close attention is paid to how efficiently funds are spent on IT infrastructure and services. Companies strive to use their resources to the maximum, to improve the security of interaction both within and with external counterparties. Against this background, it is especially important to use IT management tools. They must take into account all the features of modern business and allow optimizing information technology costs in the long term, specifies Pavel Likhnitsky, CEO of DIS Group

In order for mainframes to remain reliable, affordable and secure, it is necessary to update technologies and processes of operation. In this sense, AIOps tools and processes have great potential. 52% of respondents use AIOps tools and processes when working with mainframe computers.

2017: Incentive to replace mainframes

Implementation artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence, AI), machine learning and (Internet of Things Internet of Things,) IoT requires companies to deploy new services and process data faster, so in 2018, companies still using mainframe computers will need to decide what to do next with these outdated computers. The systems ON company developer TmaxSoft believes mainframe computers interfere with the adoption of AI, machine learning and IoT, and as a result, it is difficult for their owners to withstand the growing competition in the era of digital business transformation.

Andrei Reva, executive director of the Russian branch of TmaxSoft, explains the situation as follows: "Digital technologies have changed the basis of business models, so today they are extremely unstable and companies need to completely rebuild their work and respond flexibly to changes in the markets not only to improve competitiveness, but for their survival. The main problem for companies that still use mainframes is the inability to seamlessly integrate new technologies, without which it is impossible to adapt to the constantly changing market situation. "

Gartner predicts that AI, along with IoT, will dramatically change all markets over the next few years, and those companies that are the first to implement visual and voice search support on their websites will increase their revenue from online sales by 30% by 2021. Garter also predicts that 95% of all new electronics will use IoT in 2020.

"Legacy technologies, which were developed in the last century, often slow down market entry and impede innovation, turning the launch of new services and responding to competitors into a very complex and lengthy process. Outdated mainframes not only require huge maintenance costs, but are often incompatible with best-in-class modern software. Mainframe computers have several other serious disadvantages, including dependence on one supplier and a growing shortage of specialists who can serve these legacy computers, "Reva emphasized

2012

A survey of UK IT professionals by CA Technologies in the fall of 2012 showed that mainframe computers are still considered a strategically important part of the information infrastructure in the corporate environment. This is the opinion of 72% of 623 survey participants. At the same time, 37% of them plan to increase spending on purchases of software for mainframe computers in the next year and a half. Experts especially note the role of mainframe computers in cloud systems, processing large amounts of data and mobile technologies. 42% of respondents believe that mainframe computers will be a strategic platform for cloud systems, and 65% have already implemented or are going to implement mobile device management tools on mainframe systems.

Despite the importance of mainframes, over two-thirds of respondents noted a shortage of specialists in this area. Some organizations find it difficult to find people who have experience with complex mainframe-based systems, and therefore are looking for specialists who understand mainframe and distributed architectures at the same time. The vast majority of respondents plan to implement hybrid systems.

2009

According to the European Commission, in 2009 the volume of the world market for mainframes and operating systems to them amounted to €8.5 billion, of which €3 billion fell on Europe.

Largest suppliers

IBM

See also

• Catalog Supercomputers (systems and projects) on TAdviser
• Supercomputers Russia and CIS
• Rating of supercomputers of Russia and the CIS Top50
• Supercomputers in China
• Quantum computer
• Server platforms
• Supercomputers for artificial intelligence (AI supercomputers)

Notes