Clinic of Cleveland and SAS created forecasting models of influx of patients

2020: Creation of analytical models

On May 18, 2020 it became known that tools of SAS help with resource management for treatment of patients with COVID-19.

Cleveland Clinic (Cleveland Clinic)

Optimization of medical resources is a universal crucial task.

Cleveland clinic and SAS created analytical models which help hospitals to predict the number of patients, the capacity of departments, the need for additional beds, ventilators and other resources. These models are available free of charge through GitHub.

They help hospitals and departments of health care to get timely access to a solid data which helps with decision making on resource optimization for the help to sick COVID-19 and other patients. And such factors as finance, logistics, deliveries and others are taken into account.

Unlike forecasts which are based on one assumption these analytical models allow to consider all possible options and to create the worst scenario of succession of events, the best and the most probable. In process of change of a situation and emergence of data forecasts are adjusted. For example, models can consider effect of social distancing on spread of an infection.

Cleveland clinic uses models in decision making processes. Receiving forecasts the management of clinic can plan distribution of beds of intensive therapy, means of personal protection and ventilators on the basis of the facts.

The pandemic of a deadly disease created unprecedented calls before a state administration, health care systems and ensuring deliveries. SAS works with departments and the medical organizations worldwide, helping to solve the problems connected with a coronavirus of new type using a research and data analysis. Among such tasks:

• The help to stationary medical institutions, clinical hospitals and out-patient link in application of predictive analytics for distribution of the vital resources, requirement for which is especially high.
• Cooperation with public organizations from health sector for creation of epidemiological models which predict influence of a virus on the population and infrastructure.
• Work with government services for optimization of medical resources and increase in availability of medical care to citizens.

Cope with a pandemic of a coronavirus and overcome effects of spread of a virus is extremely difficult task as the virus is little studied, dynamics of incidence constantly changes and the symptomatology is different. But from health care systems and the governments fast understanding of a situation, its assessment and reaction are required. To take adequate measures, multidimensional approach, including a possibility of fast collecting and data integration, forecasting of peaks of demand for resources and identification of hot spots where lack of funds of protection, personnel and the equipment will influence patient care, and taking measures to arrangement of priorities and resource allocation is required, comments Mark Lambrekht, the doctor of science, the director of global practice of SAS of analytics in health care and pharmaceutics.

As specified TAdviser in SAS, the project in Cleveland Clinic was implemented based on the analytical SAS Viya platform using such products as: SAS Visual Statistics, SAS Visual Forecasting, SAS Visual Text Analytics, SAS/OR Software and SAS Model Manager.