China's GDP

The main articles are:

• China's economy
• GDP - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2075: Global GDP leadership forecast with $57tn

2024

Growth in sales of solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles will offset the decline in the real estate sector

The development of China's new technology trio - solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles - are able to make up for the loss of GDP due to the fall in the real estate sector.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that the share of the tech and green economy sectors could increase to 23% of China's GDP in 2026 from 12% in 2018 - enough to fill the deficit of 8% of GDP left by the real estate sector.

By the end of the third quarter of 2024, the trio of these sectors account for about 4.0% of China's total exports, but in absolute terms, the figure for this high-tech export is already approaching $150 billion.

5.3% GDP growth in Q1 and slowdown to 4.7% in June

The Chinese economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, beating expectations.

2023

World No. 1 in PPP GDP

Year-end growth of 5.2%

China's GDP grew by 5.2% in 2023.

Growth in Q3 by 4.9%

China's economic growth topped forecasts thanks to increased consumer spending. In the third quarter, GDP increased by 4.9% compared to the same period last year, exceeding the forecasts of economists. Retail sales rose 5.5% in September, the most since May.

Forecasts of slowing GDP growth

Nomura Holdings Inc. in August 2023 lowered its forecast for Chinese economic growth this year to 4.6% after weaker-than-expected July data and an ongoing "downward spiral" in the economy. The bank cut its valuation from 5.1% earlier. The growth forecast for next year was maintained at 3.9%.

Morgan Stanley earlier in August 2023 cut its forecast for Chinese economic growth for 2023 to 4.7%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its forecast to 4.8%.

6.3% growth in Q2

China's GDP in the second quarter of 2023 grew by 6.3% compared to the previous year, which turned out to be weaker than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg - 7.1%.

Monthly figures for June showed a mixed picture, with a marked slowdown in retail sales growth and a weakening property market, while industrial production improved.

4.5% growth in Q1

In the first quarter of 2023, the Chinese economy grew by 4.5% in annual terms, according to data from the State Statistical Office. Its growth rate accelerated significantly compared to 2.9% in October-December 2022.

2022

GDP growth by 3% to $17.94 trillion

The largest economy in the world in 2022 was still the United States with a nominal GDP of $25.46 trillion. The second place was taken by China ($17.94 trillion), the third - Japan ($4.17 trillion). Russia rose from 11th to 8th place with an indicator of $2.3 trillion, ahead of Canada and Italy.

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In 2022, the Chinese economy grew by 3% and this is at least from 1978, not counting the covid 2020 with an increase of 2.2%, from 2014 to 2019 growth averaged 6.8% and 8.4% in 2021.

In 2022, the Chinese economy grew by 3% and this is at least from 1978, not counting the covid 2020 with an increase of 2.2%, from 2014 to 2019 growth averaged 6.8% and 8.4% in 2021.

World No. 1 in PPP GDP

In August 2023, the World Bank updated its PPP GDP estimates for the world at the end of 2022.

China's share of global PPP GDP rose to 19%

China's share of global GDP by purchasing power parity rose from 4% in the early 1990s to 19% by 2022, but in 2022 the first significant scrap of growth momentum. For more details, see World Economy

GDP size forecast - $19.9 trillion

Cut growth to 0.4% in Q2

In the second quarter, growth GDP China was only 0.4%.

With growth of just 2.5% in the first six months of this year, the data "means 5.5% growth this year cannot be achieved," Societe Generale SA

PwC: China's economy to beat Europe for the first time in 2022

In 2022, China's economy will overtake Europe in volume for the first time and maintain this position in the medium term, PwC analysts say. They announced their forecast at the end of January 2022.

Experts did not give absolute figures and called only the dynamics: China's GDP in 2022-2023. will increase by 5.5% and 5.2%, respectively, and Eurozone GDP - by 4.2% and 2.2%.

According to the researchers, in order to narrow the gap between targeted and real economic growth, the government can resort to stimulating measures or completely abandon the targeting of growth rates, as has already been done in 2020.

In January 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that the eurozone economy in 2022 would show growth of 3.9%. Thus, the estimate was lowered by 0.4 percentage points compared with the October report.

At the same time, the IMF worsened the forecast for the growth of the Chinese economy for 2022 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, for 2023 - by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%.

The World Bank predicts that the Chinese economy will grow by 5.1% in 2022 after the expected growth of 8% in 2021. In 2023, economic growth is projected to accelerate to 5.3%.

Meanwhile, analysts at Bank of America expect China's economy to slow and cited three main reasons for this:

• outbreaks of morbidity due to new strains of the coronavirus COVID-19;
• tightening credit controls in the real estate market and infrastructure investments;
• policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which lead to a reduction in the production of goods.

The lack of a significant political response to these factors now means the slowdown will be more pronounced than forecast, Bank of America said. At the same time, the bank believes that state support may follow in the last quarter of the year.^[1]

2021

GDP size - $16.86 trillion

Growth of 8.1% - a maximum of 10 years

In 2021, the world's second-largest economy grew 8.1%, well above the government's "over 6%" target. This was facilitated by a sharp increase in world trade: data released in mid-January 2022 showed that exports from China in 2021 rose to a record $3.36 trillion.

It is noted that the GDP growth of the PRC in 2021 was the maximum in 10 years. The Chinese economy showed the most serious growth in the first quarter of 2021 - 18.3%. The lowest rates were at the end of the year - in the fourth quarter, GDP grew by only 4%. In general, Beijing noted that the economy continues to recover, and all development goals for 2021 have been achieved. The country's economy in 2021 exceeded 114 trillion yuan, which corresponds to about $18 trillion.

According to the State Statistical Office of China, agriculture in the country at the end of 2021 showed an annual growth of 7.1%, to 8.3 trillion yuan (about $1.3 trillion). Industry and construction grew by 8.2%, to 45.09 trillion yuan ($7.09 trillion), the service sector - also by 8.2%, to 60.97 trillion yuan ($9.59 trillion).

In 2021, the nominal income per capita also increased - by 9.1%. The figure reached 35,128 yuan, which is approximately $5.5 thousand. In rural areas, it grew by 10.5% (about $2.8 thousand), in urban areas - by 8.2% (about $7.5 thousand). Taking into account the change in prices, the growth was 9.7% and 7.1%, respectively.

Retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2021 amounted to 44.08 trillion yuan ($6.35 trillion), an increase of 12.5%. The State Statistics Service of the People's Republic of China also said that investments in fixed assets of commercial organizations in China, with the exception of agricultural households, increased by 4.9% in 2021, to 54.45 trillion yuan (about $8.56 trillion).

However, retail sales in December 2021 turned out to be weaker than forecast, investment slowed down. Among the main risks for the Chinese economy, experts call a decrease in consumer spending, supply interruptions and pessimistic expectations. Specialists are worried about a decline in consumption, which can negatively affect domestic demand. The prospects for 2022 are still unclear: a slowdown in global demand is predicted, the omicron variant of the COVID-19 coronavirus is still spreading, and the housing crisis that began with the China Evergrande Group has no end, experts warn.

Goldman Sachs economists cut their forecast for Chinese economic growth in 2022 to 4.3%.

GDP per capita $12.35 thousand

In 2021, Chinese GDP per capita remains significantly lower than American GDP, which indicates growth potential.

Growth in Q2 by 7.9%

In the second quarter of 2021, the growth rate of the Chinese economy slowed down, GDP increased by 7.9% compared to a year earlier, which is in line with forecasts, and decreased from 18.3% in the previous quarter.

In the second quarter, GDP grew 1.3% from the previous three months.

The country's V-shaped economic recovery has been showing signs of plateauing in recent months as exports and industrial activity have risen, but consumers remain cautious.

Record growth in Q1 by 18.3%

In the first China quarter of 2021, the economy grew by 18.3% compared to the same period last year.

This is the highest quarterly growth rate compared to the same period last year, since the data began to be published in 1993.

China's economy showed rapid growth in the first quarter amid increased consumer spending. This suggests a more balanced recovery, as the main drivers of growth last year were investment and exports.

2020

GDP grew 2.3% - a record low in 45 years

In 2020 GDP China , it grew record low over the past 45 years - positive dynamics amounted to only 2.3%. In absolute terms, the figure reached 101.59 trillion yuan ($15.69 trillion). This is evidenced by the data released by the State Statistical Office of the PRC.

The previous anti-record for the growth of the Chinese economy dates back to 1976, when GDP increased by 1.6% and turned out to be equal to 298.86 billion yuan ($46.15 billion).

However, China is expected to become the only country in the G-20 to report positive economic growth in gross domestic product in the first year of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

The growth rate reported by Goskomstat was higher than the 2.1% growth expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Reuters writes that, despite the historical fall and the difficulties associated with the coronavirus pandemic, the PRC economy was in surprisingly good shape. It was China that became the only major economy in the world that avoided a recession during the pandemic and the global crisis. This is largely due to the growth of exports: the demand for Chinese goods grew against the background of failures due to COVID-19, according to the publication of the news agency.

Over 20 years, China's GDP has grown by 1266%.

In the first quarter of the year, China's GDP fell by 6.8%, but already in the second it increased by 3.2%, in the third - by 4.9%. In the fourth quarter, the economy grew by 6.5%, although economists predicted growth of only 6.1%.

Industrial production (manufacturing and mining, utilities) grew 2.8% against 5.7% a year earlier.^[2]

China's GDP reached 71% of US GDP

In 2016, when Donald Trump took over as president, USA GDP China he was about 60% of this figure in the United States. By 2020, when it lost, it China had reached 71%.

The prospect of China taking the top spot in the global economic rankings has moved from distant and uncertain to the near term.

According to Bloomberg Economics, this threat is likely to affect the approach of the new US President Joe Biden to China, as the new framework of relations can significantly change the economy and markets around the world.

Q1: First drop in GDP since 1976

In the first quarter GDP China of 2020, it decreased by 6.8%. This is the first decline since 1976, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of the PRC, which was released in mid-April.

The gross domestic product of the PRC in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to 20,650,4 billion yuan (about $2.8 trillion). For the same period in 2019, the economy showed 6.4 percent growth.

The fall in GDP compared to the fourth quarter in January-March 2020 amounted to 9.8%, while analysts expected a decrease of 9.9%. The decline in GDP in quarterly terms was also recorded for the first time.

The fall in Chinese GDP was due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The coronavirus arose unexpectedly and greatly influenced the situation, so you should not simplify and draw appropriate conclusions when comparing, you should remain calm, said NBS spokesman Mao Shengyun.

China's unemployment rate was 5.9% in March, down from January and February's figures of 6.2%. However, the SCMP notes that this data is unrepresentative, since it does not include many migrant workers who were unable to return to their homeland due to movement restrictions imposed due to the virus.

Industrial production in China decreased by 8.4% in the first quarter of 2020, but in March compared to March last year, the decline was 1.1%. The volume of agricultural production on an annualized basis increased by 3.5%. The foreign trade turnover of the PRC in the first three months of 2020 decreased by 6.4% compared to the first quarter of 2019, in March the fall was 0.8%, while in January ‒ February ‒ 8.7%. Chinese imports grew by 2.4% to 2.5 trillion yuan ($350 billion), exports decreased by 3.5% to 1.3 trillion yuan ($184.6 billion).^[3]

2019

Slowdown to 6.1%

Growth in the share of services in GDP to 53.9%

How the structure of the Chinese economy changed

Since 1960, the share of agriculture and production in China's economy has declined and the share of services has grown. The services sector grew from 32.4% to 53.9% in 2019. This impressive result was achieved thanks to active public policy.

2018: GDP growth slowdown to 6.6% due to trade war with US

2018 was relatively difficult for the the Chinese economy, the company said on March 29, 2019. Coface Growth GDP slowed to 6.6%.

Over the past decades, China's economy has grown much faster than other economies, both low-income and high-income (including the United States and the European Union). Since 1989, it has grown 14.12 times. And, for example, the US economy is only 2.09 times bigger than it was in 1989.

Experts believe that the unfavorable trend will continue - the company's analysts predict that in 2019 the Celestial market will grow by 6.2%. The results of a survey of 1,500 Chinese enterprises conducted by Coface also speak in favor of an unfavorable forecast: 59% of respondents believe that the market situation will not improve this year (in 2017, only 33% of respondents believed so) - this is the highest indicator of entrepreneurial pessimism in the country since 2003, the company noted. The payment discipline of the business is also deteriorating: in 2018, 62% of entrepreneurs faced delays in payments from their buyers, while 40% noted that the duration of delays increased (in 2017, the same figure was 29%).

The slowdown in economic growth in 2018 did not pass without a trace for Chinese companies. So, for example, the number of corporate defaults on bonds increased 4 times - to $16 billion, and the number of bankruptcy cases considered by the court by the Supreme Court of the PRC increased to 6646.

An important role in exacerbating the negative dynamics of market development was played by Beijing's attempts to relieve the economy of accumulated debt. Economists note that the restrictive measures introduced have made it difficult to access borrowed financing for Chinese businesses.

A significant contribution was also made by the trade war with the United States, which negatively affected consumer confidence and led to a decrease in personal consumption.

To keep sales volumes at the same level, Chinese entrepreneurs have to give their buyers ever longer deferrals of payments - in 2018, the average duration of deferrals was already 86 days (in 2017 - 76 days). The longest delays are observed in the automotive industry, transport sector, construction industry and power.

According to Coface estimates, the solvency of Chinese business has worsened: in 2018, 62% of companies faced late payments, while 40% noted that their duration increased compared to last year (in 2017 - 29%). Coface analysts consider the increase in the number of extremely long delays (more than 180 days), in which at least 2% of the annual turnover of enterprises is tied, to be a particularly alarming signal. The share of companies facing such "severe" delinquencies in 2018 increased to 55% (from 47% in 2017). At the same time, the experience of Coface shows that 80% of extremely long delays are never repaid. When such delinquencies account for more than 2% of the annual turnover of the enterprise, its cash flows are under threat, the company emphasized.

The most negative dynamics, according to analysts, corporate solvency is observed in the construction industry, the automotive industry and ICT. The share of enterprises in these sectors, which faced extremely long delays in payments in the amount of more than 10% of annual turnover in 2018, was 28%, 27% and 25%, respectively. Most often, such critical delays occur in agriculture (12%) and the pharmaceutical industry (7%). In addition, 60% of the total number of companies surveyed admitted that they sometimes accept bank and/or other acceptances instead of cash as payment for deliveries.

In recent years, China's economy has grown actively, but now, apparently, the structural shortcomings of the market are finally taking their toll, "said economist Carlos Casanova, Coface's expert on Asia-Pacific markets. - The results of a survey of 1,500 Chinese companies show that fierce competition and a shortage of debt financing are leading to a decrease in corporate solvency and a drop in business net income. As economic growth slows further, risks will only worsen, especially in sectors where a large proportion of companies suffer from too high borrowing costs.

2017: Which provinces and cities contribute the most to China's GDP

2015: GDP growth of 6.9%

China's economic growth slowed to 6.9% in 2015, the lowest level in 25 years. The world's second largest economy continues to move away from "production roots," which is reflected in statistics.

China's GDP dynamics from 1992 to 2015

Production growth slowed to 6% in 2015, while the services sector increased by 8.3%. In 2014, the pace was 7.3% and 7.8%, respectively.

Earlier, Premier Li Keqiang said that China's economy grew by about 7% in 2015, with the services sector providing half of the growth.

Despite the lowest growth rates in a quarter of a century, the statistics cannot be called negative. The data is expected, and in addition, they indicate the ongoing modernization of the economy. Everyone knew that the economy was slowing down and this would continue, while this is also a sign of the restoration of economic equilibrium. Sooner or later, a balance will be reached between production and consumption of goods and services.

Nevertheless, at the beginning of 2016, the construction sector, as well as exporting companies, are suffering very severe damage, and all this puts pressure on prices and production, especially in heavy industry.

At the same time, consumption is growing actively, wage growth is maintained, which has a positive impact on light industry and the service sector, where the level of pricing is significantly higher than in heavy industry.

Economists note that the defeat in the stock market has not yet led to additional pressure on the growth rate of the economy.

According to expectations, the Chinese government will try to maintain growth at 6.5% in 2016, including due to lower interest rates and a reduction in reserve requirements.

There are, of course, concerns about the Chinese economy: debt levels are rising, the banking sector is in big trouble, and the real estate market is showing signs of a bubble, major industries are slowing.

It was these concerns that partly caused the Chinese stock market to plummet in early 2016. The Shanghai Composite index from December highs fell more than 20%.

2014: 7.3% GDP growth

In 2014 GDP China , it grew by 7.3%.

2012: Slowing GDP growth as property market stagnates

In mid-2012, the Chinese economy shows clear signs of slowing. GDP growth in the second quarter fell to 7.6 percent. The PRC economy last showed such weak indicators in 2009^[4].

The decline in growth in China is due to stagnation in the real estate market, as well as a significant drop in demand for Chinese products abroad. This is especially true for the main trading partner of the PRC - the European Union, which is experiencing the most acute debt crisis.

2003-2011: China's GDP versus other countries' GDP

For the most visual comparison, it is worth using not estimates of international organizations like the World Bank or the IMF, and not domestic Rosstat - but estimates of the US CIA (CIA data [1] The World Factbook ).

The main comparative indicator of countries is GDP at purchasing power parity.

The comparison base in this case is GDP, not GNP (gross national product), as this allows you to clear the comparison of the impact of the export-import balance.^[5].

This is followed by a comparison of GDP, not GNP, as this clears the comparison from the influence of "gift oil" as much as possible. In this case, countries with negative trade balances, such as Turkey, the USA, Latvia or Greece, will benefit, and countries such as Russia, Norway, Germany or China will lose.

Important:

a) this comparison is made with the absolute size of the economies of the countries of the world, and not with relative (per capita),

b) GDP is calculated at purchasing power parity, and not by simple mathematical recalculation of current exchange rates of countries of the world. This is done to improve the objectivity of the assessment. Explanations are given on the CIA website, and there are detailed explanations on the Web why a simple recalculation of the course has long been virtually not used for comparison, as not correct enough.

The period was taken from 2003 to 2011 - eight years, during which quite significant world events occurred. First of all, this is the global economic crisis of 2008-2009.

There are two groups of columns in the table - for 2003 and for 2011, and in each group of 4 columns.

Column 1 - shows the country's place in the world for this year. The World (world) and European Union (EU) meters, which do not belong to specific countries, were removed from the original CIA table, but were numbered in the general table. Only the countries of the world themselves remained.

Column 2 - Country. Countries are taken only those that are significant for research from the standpoint of Russia: the first twenty countries of the world are entirely.

Column 3 - the value of VNP according to the item taken from the corresponding annual section of the CIA website. The World Factbook. All data is easily verifiable.

Column 4 - The weight of the economy of a particular country relative to Russia, in percent. Russia is accepted as 100%, and the GDP of other countries is recalculated as% of its GDP - both for 2003 and for 2011. From this column you can clearly see whether the size of the economy of a particular country has grown relative to Russia, or has decreased.

You can look at the indicator and vice versa - is Russia catching up with a specific country, or lagging behind it, for the 8th anniversary under consideration? If the percentage in the graph has decreased, it catches up, if it has increased, it lags behind. In addition, the relative weight of countries compared to Russia can also be clearly assessed immediately. For example, Poland in 2011 is a third of the Russian economy (32.2%).

Column 5 (on the left of the column groups) - shows in color who rolls where and in which direction. Beliy - remained in place in the world table of ranks, orange - rolls down, green - goes up. Rise and fall record holders are highlighted in a more intense color.

Comparison of the countries of the world by GDP (PPP) with an indication of the size of the economy relative to Russia

Russia, contrary to established and enduring myths, as of 2011, is not at all "rapidly lagging behind" China, but even approached it a little in 8 years. In 2003, China surpasses it by more than 5 times, and after 8 years - by 4.7 times. That is, at least, "runs flat."

2010: GDP per capita is lower than in Russia and Brazil

Notes