Military satellites
Main article: Military satellites
Satellite production in Russia
Main article: Production of satellites in Russia
2023
The volume of the global space industry for the year is estimated at $630 billion
At the end of 2023, the volume of the global economy associated with the use of space technologies reached $630 billion. It is expected that in the future this market will grow rapidly. Space developments can help the world solve some of the biggest challenges - from the effects of global climate change to economic inequality. This is stated in the report, which was published on April 8, 2024 by McKinsey & Company and the World Economic Forum (WEF).
The report notes that the main drivers of the growth of the global space economy are the need to expand satellite communication capabilities, the growing demand for positioning and navigation services (primarily on mobile devices), as well as the increasing need for services based on artificial intelligence and machine learning. It is emphasized that innovation in the space industry is increasingly beneficial to a wider range of stakeholders in a wide variety of industries.
 | As costs decrease and availability increases, space technologies can transform entire industries and have as significant an impact on business and society as smartphones or cloud computing, says Sebastian Buckup, a member of the WEF Executive Committee. |  |
The report says that by 2035 the volume of the global space economy will reach $1.8 trillion. The average growth rate will be 9% per year with the expected average annual growth of world GDP at 5%. According to analysts, by 2035, about 60% of the global space economy will be in five key areas: logistics and transport, food production, state defense, retail and consumer goods, as well as digital communications.
In the transport and supply segment, costs are expected to increase from $88 billion in 2023 to $412 billion in 2035: thus, the CAGR (average annual growth rate in complex percentages) in this area will be 14%. In the field of food and beverage production, costs will rise during the period under review from $100 billion to $334 billion with a CAGR of 11%. In the direction of state defense, an increase is expected from $94 billion to $251 billion, with a CAGR of 9%. Space technologies will be increasingly used in retail and consumer goods, where costs will rise from $56 billion in 2023 to $170 billion in 2035 with a CAGR of 10%. At the same time, as noted in the report, moderate growth is expected in the field of entertainment and sports - from $143 billion to $157 billion with a CAGR of 1%.
In 2023, the volume of "trunk" applications amounted to $330 billion, "covering" - $300 billion. The shares of these areas amounted to 52.4% and 47.6%, respectively. By 2035, the authors of the report believe, the volume of "trunk" applications will reach $755 billion, "covering" - $1.035 trillion. At the same time, their shares will be 42.2% and 57.8%.
It is noted that the development of the space industry is facilitated by constant innovations in the commercial segment and a decrease in the cost of satellite launches. In addition, the development of space technologies is increasingly supported both at the state and private level. Meanwhile, destinations like space tourism are no longer a science fiction field. The report also states that related segments will benefit from the development of space technologies, in particular, agriculture, insurance, construction, etc.[1]
The volume of the global space industry is estimated at $450 billion
The volume of the global space industry is about $400-450 billion. Vladimir Solovyov, general designer for manned space systems and complexes of the Russian Federation, cited this assessment in mid-November 2023.
According to him, the leading space powers spend more than $100 billion annually on the development of manned astronautics. Solovyov added that Russia spent about $14 billion on the International Space Station with a total project cost of $160-170 billion, but at the same time has the rights to use 30% of the station's resources.
The General Designer for Manned Space Systems and Complexes of Russia also cited data according to which in 1994-2020. The Russian Federation spent about $11.7 billion on the ISS, and the United States - $100 billion. "Required financing" for 2021-2024. is $2.5 billion from Russia and $12.8 billion from the United States, he said.
Vladimir Solovyov added that a person is unique in that sometimes it is thanks to him that it is possible to solve "some completely unbearable situations" associated with problems with space technology.
Earlier, the CEO Roskosmos Iouri Borisov said that the turnover of the global space industry is about $469 billion. He cited data according to which in the United States the volume of private investment in the space industry in 2021 amounted to about $9 billion (for comparison To Europe , this figure is $2 billion).
| | The good pace of commercialization of services is demonstrated by those countries that have managed to balance the economic interests of governments and private investors at the level of public policy, Borisov said. | |
The general director of Roscosmos expressed confidence that in the state the mechanisms should be configured so that science has an incentive to develop space technologies, and business - to introduce them into a wide range of civilian products and order new satellites.[2]
The main trends in the space technology market are named
Investments in new space technologies in 2022 amounted to about $8 billion. Analysts believe that the volume of the global space industry by 2030 could reach $1.4 trillion, an increase of about three times compared to 2020. Such data are reflected in a study by McKinsey, the results of which were released on July 20, 2023.
It is noted that the space sector as of 2023 is in the process of transformation, which is explained by a significant decrease in technology costs and the introduction of advanced developments that open up completely new opportunities. Due to the reduction in size, weight, power consumption and cost of satellites and launch vehicles, the architecture of orbital systems is changing. In particular, instead of placing individual large spacecraft in a circular geosynchronous orbit in the plane of the Earth's equator (GEO), it becomes advisable to form distributed satellite constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO).
Several new launch vehicles are expected to debut in 2023 and 2024, the emergence of which will accelerate the implementation of promising space programs. This is the SpaceX Starship system, consisting of the Super Heavy super-heavy launch vehicle and the Starship spacecraft: the platform is designed for economical delivery of cargo and people to low Earth, solar-synchronous and geosynchronous orbits, as well as for interplanetary flights to the moon and Mars. In addition, the United Launch Alliance's Vulcan Centaur heavy-duty rocket and Blue Origin's New Glenn carrier will appear (it will help implement the Amazon Project Kuiper broadband satellite Internet access project). These rockets will help meet the expected growth in demand for launch services.
Another trend of the global space industry is the development of the private segment and interest from other sectors that go beyond the traditional space sphere. For example, several insurance companies are exploring the use of satellite data to predict costs from possible natural disasters, and financial institutions use such information to estimate fluctuations in the cost of raw materials. At the same time, the private Japanese company Ispace and the private American company Astrobotic Technology are working on lunar missions.
The demand for specialists in the field of space technology is growing steadily. So, in 2022, the number of corresponding vacancies rose by 16% compared to the previous year. Although space platforms rely heavily on traditional engineering fields such as systems engineering, electrical engineering, and mechanical engineering, companies are hiring an increasing number of programmers to implement next-generation services and create efficient algorithms for analyzing data coming from numerous satellites. Many such positions require applicants to have knowledge of Earth remote sensing and specialized engineering skills.
McKinsey analysts point to the development of a segment of small satellites with a modular design that can be custom-built using CubeSat architecture and standard-sized nodes. Such devices allow solving a wide range of problems, including in the field of space technology research. In the remote sensing sector, full-spectrum images are becoming more and more popular, which help to monitor climate and predict natural disasters. Among the promising technologies are laser communications and nuclear power plants for spacecraft.[3]
Europe's first fully private space rocket launch successfully conducted
On October 7, 2023, the Spanish aerospace company PLD Space, founded in 2011, successfully launched the Miura-1 suborbital reusable rocket. This is the first launch of a completely private space rocket in Europe. Read more here.
The launch of Jupiter 3 - the largest commercial satellite in the world
On July 29, 2023, SpaceX successfully launched the Falcon Heavy super-heavy rocket, which launched the Jupiter 3 spacecraft, the world's largest commercial communications satellite, into orbit. Read more here.
Named 3 ways to hack space satellites
In early June 2023, the American company Istari Global, specializing in information security issues, named three main schemes for hacking spacecraft and disrupting the satellite network.
It is said that the most accessible target for attackers is ground-based satellite infrastructure. These include control centers, storage platforms, and communication systems. However, such complexes have the most powerful protection, including complete isolation from other computer networks.
The second method is to intercept signals by which spacecraft exchange information with ground equipment. By faking such data packets, cybercriminals could theoretically disrupt the functioning of the satellite.
The third and most difficult method is attacks directly on spacecraft in orbit. Such intrusions can be made through loopholes or vulnerabilities in the software and hardware components of satellites.
The Moonlighter satellite, delivered to space on June 4, 2023, will be used to find possible weaknesses in the defense of modern orbiters. The creators call the device "the world's first and only hacker sandbox in space." A small satellite weighing approximately 5 kg when folded has dimensions of 34 × 11 × 11 cm, and in fully operational with deployed solar panels - 50 × 34 × 11 cm. The device was created by The Aerospace Corporation in collaboration with the US Space Systems Command and the US Air Force Research Laboratory. In August 2023, as part of the Hack-A-Sat competition in Las Vegas, five teams of hackers will try to remotely hack into Moonlighter's protection. The winners will receive a prize of $50 thousand.[4]
2022
Which countries launched the most satellites
In 2022, 186 launches of launch vehicles with satellites for various purposes were carried out - this is an absolute record in the entire history of the development of world cosmonautics. Such data is contained in the BryceTech report, which was released in early February 2023.
It is said that the United States carried out the most launches during 2022 - 87 campaigns. In second place is China with 64 missions, and the Russian Federation closes the top three with 21 starts. Another 6 launches were made by Europe, and 5 by India. One mission was carried out by Japan, South Korea and Iran. At the same time, six launches ended in failure - 32 spacecraft never entered orbit.
In 2022, SpaceXIlon Musk conducted a total of 61 launches, all of which were successful (an average of one launch every six days). About 50% of SpaceX's missions were aimed at further deploying the Starlink constellation, which reached 3,300 operational satellites in orbit by the end of 2022. The main part of the PRC missions is provided by the Chinese Aerospace Scientific and Technical Corporation (CASC).
A total of 2,521 satellites were launched in 2022. Of these, approximately 95% came from small spacecraft. For comparison: in 2021, this figure was 94%. Small satellites in 2022 accounted for 54% of the total mass of payload launched into orbit. Small vehicles were present on board 108 of the 186 carriers that started during the year. It is said that in 2022, about 80% of small satellites performed various communication functions. Another 10% are focused on remote monitoring, 7% - on testing new technologies. For scientific and other purposes, 1% and 2% of small spacecraft were launched, respectively.[5]
Countries with the largest number of satellites in space
2021: Record rise in satellite launches
2020
US and Japan develop mini-satellites to combat Russian missiles for $9 billion
In mid-August 2020, it became known that Japan and the United States are creating a network of small satellites in low Earth orbit to detect and track next-generation missiles being developed to bypass existing defense systems. The project will cost more than $9 billion and will be launched by the mid-2020s.
According to Nikkei, the development of missile defense was a response to the growing range of missile arsenals in China, Russia and North Korea. All these missiles, however, can be easily tracked using satellite and radar systems. However, the development of new weapons designed to bypass missile defense systems is also in full swing. With the current satellite network operating at 36,000km, it will be difficult for them to detect new missiles flying at low altitude and able to change their trajectory.
To solve this problem, the United States plans to launch low-orbit satellites at altitudes from 300 to 1000 km. Washington plans to launch more than 1,000 miniature surveillance satellites, 200 of which are equipped with thermal infrared sensors designed for missile defense. Japan plans to join the project and is likely to participate in the development of sensors and miniaturization of satellites. Tokyo will consider taking responsibility for building a network of satellites around Japan, as well as some of the costs.
Unlike an ordinary satellite, the manufacture and launch of which costs hundreds of millions of dollars, the cost of a miniature satellite is about $5 million. However, proximity to the Earth's surface, as well as a vast coverage area, will allow satellites to gather more detailed information. The satellite network will include installations equipped with optical telescopes and positioning systems. These satellites will be able to record the movements of warships, aircraft and ground troops.[6]
Countries leading in the number of satellites
Notes
- ↑ Space is booming. Here's how to embrace the $1.8 trillion opportunity
- ↑ In Russia, estimated the amount of world costs for manned cosmonautics
- ↑ McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2023
- ↑ A global satellite blackout is a real threat — can hackers help?
- ↑ 2022 Launch Year in Review
- ↑ US and Japan plan fleet of low-orbit satellites to track missiles
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