Microelectronics (global market)

2022: Moody's Analytics: the situation in Ukraine may worsen the shortage of processors in the world

As a result of what is happening in Ukraine, the already existing shortage of chips in the world may worsen, follows from a report by the analytical company Moody's Analytics on geopolitical risks to the Geopolitical^[1]. There may be interruptions in the supply of raw materials necessary for the production of chips. This is due to the fact that Russia and Ukraine are its major suppliers.

Analysts at Moody's Analytics note that Ukraine supplies about 70% of the neon in the world needed in the microelectronic industry. Neon, used for the production of chips, is obtained in large quantities at Russian metallurgical enterprises. It is processed at Ukrainian enterprises, and from there it comes to microelectronics manufacturers.

In addition, Russia supplies about 40% of palladium, also needed in the microelectronic industry, and is one of the largest manufacturers of aluminum and steel, which are used in a wide range of industries - from beverage cans to smartphones and cars.

One of the conclusions we come to is that the global shortage of chips will not go anywhere in the near future. This will increase the shortage of input materials in various industries - from the automotive industry to telecom. The auto industry may also face a shortage of other elements, such as catalytic converters and parts made of aluminum and steel, which may cause delays in the supply of cars, the analytical report says.

Moody's Analytics indicates risk of chip outages

A global shortage of chips arose during the pandemic in 2020-2021 amid the transition of many to remote work and the acceleration of digitalization. A further aggravation of this problem may lead to a decline in the industry, which is already trying to overcome the "narrow necks" that arose against the background of the coronavirus pandemic, according to Moody's Analytics.

And then, since suppliers of raw materials for the microelectronic industry faced problems, increasing federal financing for semiconductor production will be less effective. This could force major investors like Intel to temporarily cut large investments.

The Moody's Analytics report does not mention that Russia is also a major supplier of sapphire substrates that are used in opto- and microelectronics. Interruptions in their deliveries can also exacerbate the lack of processors. Ministry of Industry and Trade Russia On March 6, he stated that against the backdrop of sanctions, Russia allows stopping the export of artificial sapphires only as a last resort.

However, some representatives of the foreign semiconductor industry believe that there is no critical dependence on the supply of any specific suppliers in the industry.

The semiconductor industry has a wide range of suppliers of basic materials and gases, so we do not believe that there are immediate risks of supply disruptions associated with Russia and Ukraine, "said John Neuffer, executive director and president of[2] Industry Association].

2019: Microprocessors are promised a dark future without a single clearance

The further development of the semiconductor industry can sharply slow down or even completely stall when trying to master the norms of the technological process that follow after 5 nm, according to leading specialists in the semiconductor industry^[3].

The scenario is not ruled out, according to which the transition to standards for the production of semiconductors with nodes of the order of 1 nm will take at least a decade, however, there is a darker possibility that the development of technologies will stumble already at 3 nm due to the lack of suitable materials for the manufacture of photoresists, The EE Times portal reported, citing the results of a panel discussion of specialists at the annual conference on lithography problems SPIE Advanced Lithography 2019.

Initially, the participants in the session planned to note the fact of the previously predicted "death" of Moore's Law, according to which the number of transistors on the chip chip doubles every 24 months. However, as a result of the meeting, its participants noted the growing concern in the industry regarding uncertainty about the technologies for the production of the next generations of chips, tied, in turn, to the growing number of unresolved technological problems.

Main article: Processors (global market)

2016: Frost & Sullivan Data

In 2016, the global microelectronics market amounted to $339 billion. Over the year, it increased by 1.1% or $4 billion. In 2017, the market is projected to grow by 6.5% - to $361 billion. Southeast Asian countries (China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, etc.) and the United States will remain leaders in the field of semiconductor component production in the five-year term . The share of Russia in the structure of the global microelectronics market is still less than 1% ($2.3 billion in 2016).

In the period 2010-2016. the growth rate of the global microelectronics market averaged 2.2% per year. For six years, the market volume increased by $41 billion and in 2016 reached $339 billion (compared to $298 billion in 2010) (Fig. 1). According to forecasts, in 2017 the market volume will increase to $361 billion, and to $369 billion - in 2018. Growth rates will be 6.5 and 2.3%, respectively.

The main share of the market for microelectronic components today belongs to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (about 61%), followed by the states of the Americas (19%), Europe and Japan (10% each) (Fig. 2). Over the past 10 years, the share of Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of the global microelectronics market has increased by 14%, in the Americas - by 1%. Market shares of European countries and Japan, on the contrary, decreased - by 6 and 9%, respectively.

In the next 5 years, China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and the United States will retain their flagship positions in the industry, and the automotive and telecommunications industries, robotics, health care, consumer electronics and Internet of Things (IoT) will become key drivers for the development of the global microelectronic industry (in terms of stimulating demand for production enterprises ). Among the growing market trends are the proliferation of augmented (AR) and virtual reality ( VR) devices, more powerful technologies for working with large volumes of data (for example, VLC), the production of energy-efficient technologies (including OLED), wearables (wearables) and the general trend for miniaturization. The industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and the so-called Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) will also have a major impact on the development and growth of the global microelectronics market (Figure 3).

2014

Gartner Data

Unlike 2013, growth is observed in all segments of the market, but sales of memory chips are increasing fastest, as in the previous year. In 2014, the global microelectronics market grew to $340.3 billion, which is 7.9% more than last year. At the same time, 72.4% of sales are accounted for by 25 leading companies, whose total revenues increased by 11.7% compared to last year.

Unlike 2013, growth is observed in all segments of the market, but sales of memory chips are increasing fastest, as in the previous year. This segment grew by 16.6%, while the rest of the market - only by 4.9%. Sales of DRAM memory chips rose 32% to $46.1 billion, surpassing the record level of $41.8 billion achieved in 1995.

For the twenty-third consecutive time, Intel ranked first in terms of chip sales. Thanks to the restoration of PC production, after two years of decline, she managed to return to sales growth. Intel possesses 15.4% of the market, it is followed by Samsung Electronics (Samsung Electronics Rus) (10.2%) and Qualcomm (5.7%).

The number of mergers and acquisitions among leading chip manufacturers has increased significantly. After the acquisition of LSI, Avago Technologies was first ranked among the 25 largest manufacturers. MStar Semiconductor and MediaTek completed a lengthy merger process, and ON Semiconductor bought Aptina Imaging.

Frost & Sullivan: Countries protect their microelectronics

In 2014, Frost & Sullivan analysts compared the best world practices in supporting the microelectronic industry in six countries (USA, South Korea, Malaysia, Israel, Germany and China). The analysis shows that there are various protectionist measures in all these countries in relation to the production and development of electronics, including import quotas and tariff and non-tariff restrictions.

2012: Sales down to $298 billion (-3%)

Global chip sales in 2012 amounted to $ 298 billion, which is 3% lower compared to 2011, but Gartner analysts believe that growth will resume in 2013.

According to the forecasts of December 2012, in 2013 the market volume may reach 311 billion dollars. Earlier, Gartner predicted growth of up to $330 billion, but the overall situation in the economy and the fact of large inventory in warehouses forced analysts to lower the forecast.

Even in the steadily growing smartphone chip market, growth has slowed, although it remains the leading growth factor in the global microelectronics market.

At Intel, the world's largest chip manufacturer, sales fell 2.7% in 2012 to $49.3 billion, Gartner said. Analysts see the reasons for this in low demand for PCs, both due to the weakness of the economy and due to the reorientation of consumers to tablets and smartphones.

At Samsung Electronics is (Samsung Electronics Rus), being the second largest producer in the world, sales dropped by 8.7%.

But Qualcomm managed to increase them by 29.6% compared to 2011 and move from sixth to third place in the world^[4].

See also

• Microelectronics (Russian market)
• Radio Relay (Global Market)
• Spin orbitronics
• Article:Internet of Things (IoT)
• Article:Internet of Things, IoT, M2M (global market)
• Article:Internet of Things, IoT, M2M (Russian market)
• Internet of Things: you can't stay in time
• IIoT - Industrial Internet of Things
• Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0)
• PaaS - Platform As A Service - Business Platform as a Service
• RFID
• APCS
• NB-IoT Low-Power and Wide-Area, LPWA

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