StatSoft: Sales-Forecast

Sales-Forecast is the application for forecasting of sales.

System core - the modern forecasting methods implemented in a packet of Statistica which help to build forecasts of time series, both on the basis of their own history, and with attraction of additional variables and creation of the multidimensional explaining models.

For work data on sales in the form of time series are required for the Sales-Forecast system. Data can be imported from any formats of spreadsheets (including the MS Excel, Quattro Pro, ASCII, etc.), from tables of the databases supporting OLE technology of DB (for example, the MS SQL Server, Oracle, etc.).

Special procedures of conversion and cleaning of the data imported from initial storage create the table Statistica containing all studied time series of sales. The example of such table is given below:

Example of the table of initial data, 2015

The user interface of a system is based on dialog with the user. Dialog boxes may contain as the minimum settings necessary for quick start of the prediction algorithm, and more detailed - for experienced users.

Window of the system interface, 2015

In a system predictive and analytical methods are used:

• spectrum analysis;
• adaptive forecasting methods (exponential smoothing);
• the ARPSS (ARIMA) models and ARPSS with interventions;
• methods of seasonal decomposition (Census 1, Census 2);
• neural networks.

A system in the automatic mode touches a large number of models (in this case models of exponential smoothing), adjusting them to each number of sales, and analyzes the forecasting accuracy of each of these models on the basis of independent assessment of an error using a cross-check method. The model providing the smallest forecast error can be automatically accepted as the main, and the forecast with its help is submitted to the user.

All analysis results and forecasting (by default it is the table and the diagram of the forecast) are located in the workbook of Statistica with separation on different products.

Workbook, 2015

Upon termination of processing of the selected time series the general table with forecasts for all products from which information can be unloaded in initial storage forms.

There is a possibility of creation of the finished analytical reports on the basis of results of forecasting, their contents define and the user configures. In the report necessary tables and diagrams are located, the text can be added, be inserted any objects supporting technology Active-X. The report remains in the format .rtf, .pdf, .html, etc. therefore analysis results and forecasting can be browsed behind workstations at which the Statistica system is not installed.

Statistica packet - the complex analytical tool, it is intended for the solution of a wide range of different tasks and carrying out researches in the most different scopes of statistics, for example, in the industry, the financial sphere, advertizing, medicine, sociology, etc.

The majority of methods of the module Time series and forecasting, thanks to an object model of the Statistica system and existence of the built-in STATISTICA Visual Basic programming language formed the basis of the complete software solution Sales-Forecast for automatic forecasting of a large number of time series of sales.

A system allows flexible configurations of a format of initial data, requirements to computing resources and also difficulties and quantities of the used models. The main advantage of a system of automatic forecasting consists that all calculations connected with optimization of predictive models are shifted to the computer. It, however, does not exclude a possibility of introduction by the analyst of expert amendments in any way. Though in the majority of tasks computing algorithms are much more effective.

Representation of a product, 2014