The adviser to the minister of digital development predicted separation of the world into several tekhnoekonomichesky blocks

Article "International Threats of 2018" was published by group of authors into which Andrey Bezrukov, Mikhail Mamonov, Nikolay Silayev and Andrey Sushentsov with the assistance of Vasily Kashin, Kirill Semyonov and Maxim Suchkov^[1] entered].

Andrey Sushentsov is the program director of the International Valdai Discussion Club, the head of the Foreign policy agency and the associate professor of MGIMO the MFA of Russia - acted as the Chief Editor of the report.

Three key a trend of the modern world – formation of a policentrichnost, crisis of ideology and the expected change of technology way. All three bear opportunities, but at the same time are calls. Russia aims at multipolarity – but that if it turns back a distemper? Global crisis of ideologies and valuable positions concerns not only liberalism, but also different izvod of conservatism constructed on an anti-Western basis: both loses persuasiveness. Change of technology way can make suddenly weaknesses of the country strong and vice versa. By historical standards these changes are sudden and at the same time affect all. As a result in the world uncertainty continues to dominate, - authors of the report write

The adviser to the minister of digital development Mikhail Mamonov predicts separation of the world into several tekhnoekonomichesky blocks

The sixth of nine sections of article is devoted to technology threats and "Fight of tekhnoekonomichesky platforms" is called. We give this fragment entirely:

What is going on. In several years we will see circuits of the new world. The logic of technology development will define economic geography, and that, in turn, will create new political watersheds and new alliances.

The main technology motor is digitalization. The digital space became one more measurement of real space, the same as land surface or air. In it infrastructure – the bridges and roads appeared. In this space there are deposits of minerals – data. There already "mine" new gold – cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, understanding of importance of digital sovereignty wakens. Major powers will want to control own critical information infrastructure – therefore global monopoly of Google, Facebook or Alibaby will not be long. At least because "digital oil" – Big Data – cannot be taken out to other countries for nothing eternally.

The digital space tempts appetite of the states not only because of values which it contains, but also as a new field of fight. The large states stand apart, build explicit (as China) and implicit (as the USA) fences around the national virtual spaces, create cybertroops. Earlier, to force the opponent to be given, besieged fortresses and bombed the cities. Will break payment systems and industrial digital platforms now.

As a result, there will be states which will be able to control and protect the digital space, and all others which should or reconcile to risks of pressure and robbery, or to go begging to those who can look after them. The world will be separated into several tekhnoekonomichesky blocks, with a sufficient set of key technologies of a new cycle, financial (perhaps, cryptofinancial) the centers and the under control markets. The ratio of forces between these blocks will also define future political picture of the world.

What's next. Already now it is clear that the USA and China will become the bases for future tekhnoekonomichesky blocks. The first will integrate the Anglo-Saxon world, including Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The second will include many Asian countries on the periphery of China. In the next decades we will witness the epoch-making competition of the East and the West. That whose public system, whose philosophy of development will be more effective in a new cycle will win.

Europe and Japan to which the USA refused equal partnership recently and also Brazil, India and Russia will rise before the difficult choice. Become the subordinated players of someone else's block? If to try to create the, then with whom? For Russia it is a fundamental question of which it is necessary to think already now. The idea of a common economic space, from Lisbon to Tokyo, can receive new filling.

What to do. Even at cheap energy and qualified personnel, the competition of macro-platforms of a technology civilization will take place in the inertial scenario with the minimum participation of Russia. In the short term of Russia it is necessary to survive – to provide base of the digital sovereignty – to create domestic operating systems, to arrange mass production of the entrusted microprocessors, to increase the human potential adequate to requirements of a digital era. Unlike the XX century when military technologies moved civil, now all on the contrary – it is necessary to force preferential tax treatment for the sphere of Research and Development and the innovation business, to considerably simplify immigration and naturalization of specialists, to create technology clusters in regions of Siberia and the Far East rich with energy. Without having sufficient own markets and a full range of technologies, Russia should select carefully profitable niches where its unique competences are demanded globally, for example, in the field of cyber security. Not to remain on a roadside, Russia should invest more actively in formation of the new agenda – in creation of technology standards and alliances, including, using mechanisms of BRICS.

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