People's Liberation Army of China

Financing

Main article: Military budgets of countries

2024: Defense spending growth forecast by 7%

Dynamics of China's annual defense spending growth. Data for 2024 - February forecast

2023: China ramps up defense spending for the ninth consecutive year. But their share in GDP is only 1.3%

In 2023, China increased the military budget by 7.2% compared to 2022 - to 1.55 trillion yuan (approximately $218.42 billion at the exchange rate on March 9, 2024). Thus, the PRC has been increasing defense spending for the ninth year in a row, as stated in a government report submitted by the country's authorities on March 5, 2024.

Estimating some countries' defense costs as a share of their GDP in 2023

It is noted that in 2024, China will increase defense budget expenditures by another 7.2% on an annualized basis. As a result, costs will rise to 1.67 trillion yuan ($235.33 billion). For comparison, in 2013 the value was 720 billion yuan (about $101.46 billion). That is, within about a decade, PRC defense spending will more than double. The published report says that the GDP growth target for 2024 is about 5%, which is similar to the 2023 goal.

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Beijing is tightening its stance on Taiwan. The published government report no longer mentions the possibility of "peaceful reunification," which was included in such documents earlier. According to Reuters, citing the PRC's draft budget, the country intends to resolutely resist "separatist activities aimed at Taiwan's independence and external interference." The Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council called on China to recognize the fact that the parties are not subordinate to each other, and spoke in favor of establishing a healthy relationship.

China makes it clear that in the next decade (by 2034) it wants to increase its defense potential to such an extent that it will be ready to win the war if it has no choice but to enter into an armed confrontation, says Li Mingjiang, a researcher at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore.[1]

2022: China's share of global defense spending rises

China's rising share of global defense spending

2021: China increases defense spending by 6.8%

In 2021, China's spending on national defense reached 1.36 trillion yuan (about $209 billion at the rate at the time of publication of these official data - March 5, 2022), which is 6.8% more than a year ago. At the same time, in 2022, the country is going to increase the military budget by 7.1%, to 1.45 trillion yuan, according to the draft budget of the country, distributed at the opening of the fifth session of the National People's Congress (NPC) of the 13th convocation.

China has increased defense spending by 4.7% over the year and now wants to increase the pace

According to TASS, many international organizations, including the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), believe that China significantly underestimates official data on military spending, and its real volume may be 25-50% higher. According to analysts, the published data does not include several very important articles: costs of strategic forces, defense scientific and technical developments, imports of foreign weapons, the People's Armed Police (analogue of internal troops) and other paramilitary armed groups. Also, the expenses of the provincial authorities for military needs are not taken into account.

Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Keqiang said that efforts to strengthen the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will continue. China will also improve its approach to the development of fundamental science and technology, including dual-use, and will also rely on the further development of industry.

Analysts quoted by the Global Times, a newspaper owned by the Chinese Communist Party (CPC), say it is wise for China to continue to increase its defense budget, which looks modest to GDP (just over 1%). They said strong national defense is needed to protect "the fruits and prospects of economic development both from traditional security threats such as war and from unconventional security threats such as terrorism, natural disasters and the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.^[2]

2019: Military budget 1.9% of GDP or $266 billion

US, China and Russia military spending since 1992 ($ billion)

2018: Defence budget 1.9%

Military budget in% of GDP in 2018 according to SIPRI:

• 8.8% Saudi Arabia
• 4.3% Israel
• 3.9% Russia
• 3.2% USA
• 2.5% Turkey
• 2.4% India
• 2.3% France
• 1.9% Australia
• 1.9% China
• 1.8% Britain
• 1.3% Canada
• 1.2% Germany

Nuclear weapons

Main article: China's nuclear weapons

Chinese Navy

Main article: Chinese Navy

History

2024

China introduced the world's first virtual commander

In early July 2024, the world's first virtual commander was introduced in China. This AI was developed by the laboratory of the University of National Defense in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, and reflects the behavior of human commanders in all respects. When modeling military operations involving all branches of the military, the AI commander was given the opportunity to quickly train and grow in endlessly developing virtual wars.

Military simulations often require the participation of human commanders to make decisions on the ground in response to unexpected events. But China's senior army commanders are constantly busy and unable to participate in long-term modeling. An AI commander can replace human commanders in a large-scale virtual battle, and within the laboratory he can freely manipulate the situation without human intervention.

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SCMP

The researchers said the AI commander's initial settings reflected the skills of an experienced brilliant strategist, "possessing developed mental abilities and a balanced character, able to calmly analyze and assess situations, not making emotional or impulsive decisions, and able to respond quickly in an unexpected situation using memory-loaded similar decision-making scenarios." However, the identity of the virtual commander can be adjusted if necessary by changing individual parameters.

It is believed that the AI commander, like living generals, relies on empirical knowledge when making combat decisions, seeks satisfactory solutions, extracts similar scenarios from memory and quickly formulates a viable plan. However, people are forgetful, and in order to mimic this important weakness, scientists also set a limit on the size of the AI commander's knowledge base. When memory reaches the limit, some units of knowledge are removed.^[3]

China unveils electromagnetic rail gun to launch cruise missiles

The Chinese Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) has developed an electromagnetic rail gun to launch cruise missiles and other hypersonic projectiles. The testing of such weapons became known in mid-May 2024. Read more here.

China has created laser weapons to destroy hypersonic missiles

At the end of March 2024, it became known that Chinese scientists and the military developed laser weapons to destroy hypersonic missiles. Moreover, as established in the course of research, an increase in beam power does not lead to a proportional increase in missile damage.

Hypersonic missiles have a special shell that protects them from overheating, destabilization and destruction directly during flight. Experts from the PRC have found that a laser beam with a power of 1 kW per square centimeter can cause significant damage to the skin of a rocket that moves at a speed of 6 Mach. At the same time, with an increase in beam power by half, the area of ​ ​ damage to the missile shell actually decreases.

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Under the influence of hypersonic air flow, the coating receives more damage when exposed to a laser of lower power, according to a report by researchers who worked under the guidance of senior engineer Lin Jian from the Chinese Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics.

Meanwhile, controversy continues over the effectiveness of laser weapons as a means of countering hypersonic missiles. On the one hand, lasers have a relatively low operating cost and can operate at high speed. However, on the other hand, critics say current laser installations have insufficient power and have limited range, making it harder to combat missiles moving at high speeds.

Chinese scientists note that under the influence of a 2 kW laser per square centimeter, the rocket coating can burn out in one second, and then damage to the underlying metal material begins. At twice the power, the laser's capabilities are not enough to damage the base metal, but the skin is affected more effectively.^[4]

2023

Former British pilots trained China pilots for generous salary

In September 2023, the new British Secretary of Defense Grant Shapps said that former British army personnel training colleagues from competing countries would be brought to justice.

The warning comes after it emerged a number of former British military pilots have trained pilots in China's People's Liberation Army for a generous salary of around £240,000.

In October 2022, 30 retired British pilots went to train members of the Chinese army. After the release of this information, a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense said that the training and recruitment of pilots did not violate the current legislation, but the authorities would make attempts to contain such activities.

Such statements are made against the background of difficulties in organizing the process of combat training of British pilots. One of the most important factors influencing training is the lack of qualified instructors as pilots seek to leave for higher-paying jobs instead of training their mates.

Against this background, the gender scandal that occurred in the air force looks comical. In August, the department suspended the recruitment of white men in order to fulfill the goals of gender and ethnic diversity in the troops.

Chinese comedian fined $2 million for insulting army with Xi Jinping quote

On May 17, 2023, it became known that the Chinese authorities fined the local comedy troupe Shanghai Xiaoguo Culture Media about $2 million. The reason was the joke of one of the participants in this Shanghai stand-up platform - comedian Li Haoshi, known by his stage name House. Read more here.

Simulating invasion of Taiwan with artificial intelligence

On January 15, 2023, it became known that the Chinese army was starting to model the invasion of Taiwan using artificial intelligence. According to the South China Morning Post, the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) will conduct a blockade exercise around Taiwan in 2023. For this, it is planned to use information technologies. In particular, the AI will simulate the situation of deterrence of US forces in Taiwan.

Using his skills in AI, cloud computing, big data, cyber attacks and defense, and unmanned equipment, the PLA could become a world leader in future smart wars, according to Ni Yongjie, deputy director of the Shanghai Institute for the Study of Taiwan. The PLA uses AI to simulate war games for invasion operations in Taiwan, as well as to identify underwater vehicles. Yongjie called on the PLA to normalize military exercises that cross the Taiwan Strait midline, the de facto maritime border separating mainland China and Taiwan, and approach the island's territorial waters, cutting off transport. The idea of "smart deterrence" is being studied at the PLA, and China has made great strides since 2013 despite the tense world environment, Yongjie said.

Chinese army begins simulating Taiwan invasion

Simulators track U.S. Navy ships and use electronic countermeasures, according to a report released in 2022 by Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technologies. Beijing is unlikely to succeed in seizing Taiwan in a hypothetical invasion of the island in 2026, according to an American think tank. However, the think tank warned in its report that such a conflict would wreak havoc on both sides of the strait, as well as in the United States and Japan, and the total number of victims would be in the tens of thousands. As an example, he cited the regulation of trade through the strait, the ban on the import of agricultural products from areas governed by these forces, and the suspension of the free trade framework between the two sides of the strait.

The idea of ​ ​ using AI in the development of a military strategy against the United States originated back in August 2022. The PLA held unprecedented live-fire drills, encircling the autonomous island amid rising tensions following a visit to Taiwan by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. After US President Joe Biden signed the latest law on national defense powers, providing for the financing of weapons for Taiwan, the PLA also strengthened exercises on the island.

The use of AI in military strategy is the subject of heated debate, many scientists express alarm about the possible consequences of the use of AI in conflicts. According to the South China Morning Post, Beijing does not exclude the use of force to annex Taiwan, since it considers it part of its territory. The United States and most other countries do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. However, Washington opposes any attempts to annex the island by force.^[5]

2022

FBI double agent reveals Chinese intelligence actions

In October 2022, it became known that two Chinese intelligence officers paid a bribe in bitcoins worth about $61 thousand to an FBI officer to obtain information related to the US federal investigation into a telecommunications company from China. According to the United States Department of Justice, a criminal case has been opened against Chinese citizens Gochong He and Zheng Wang, they are charged with trying to obstruct criminal prosecution.

According to court documents, the defendants, starting in 2019, instructed a US civil service officer, whom they believe they recruited as an agent, to steal confidential information. But in fact, he worked as a double agent of the FBI.

China introduced a gyrocopter with guided anti-tank missiles on board

In August 2022, Chinese TV channel CCTV-7 aired a story about the use of gyrocopters armed with guided anti-tank missiles in the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA). The footage shows a two-seater gyrocopter with four anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), two on each side of the aircraft. Read more here.

Dynamics of Chinese aircraft entering the air defense zone of Taiwan

2021: Advances in the Chinese military's use of AI have become known. They spend billions on it

At the end of October 2021, it became known that the People's Liberation Army China (PLA) spends about the same amount as the military USA on (artificial intelligence AI), and has made "extraordinary progress" in purchasing smart systems for combat and support operations.

The Center for Security and New Technologies (CSET) at Georgetown University reviewed tens of thousands of PLA procurement records and outlined what it found in a new report titled "Curbed Lightning: How the Chinese Military Is Implementing Artificial Intelligence." Their conclusion: China is rapidly moving to make AI an integral part of its military modernization.

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) spends about as much as the US military on artificial intelligence

Chinese leaders see AI as key to making the PLA a "world-class competitive military force," the report's authors write. "The PLA hopes to use AI to create asymmetric advantages over the United States, which it considers a'strong adversary' but also a role model in AI development.

The researchers analyzed 343 AI-related contracts awarded by PLA units and state defense companies to gain insight into the Chinese military's AI strategy. Among other things, the analysis of their spending priorities suggests that the PLA is focusing on developing autonomous vehicles, using artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve the accuracy of intelligence analysis, information warfare and target recognition.

CSET reviewed more than 66,000 procurement records - everything from requests for proposals to concluded contracts - released between March 30 and December 1, 2020.

The study found that the PLA implements AI in seven separate areas:

• intelligent and autonomous vehicles (in particular, aircraft and underwater vehicles)
• preventive maintenance and logistics
• reconnaissance, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR)
• information and electronic warfare
• simulation and training
• command and control
• automatic target recognition

The report said about 120 autonomous vehicle contracts had been awarded, compared with just over 60 for ISRs. China is particularly interested in swarms of drones. In 2020, China awarded contracts to develop clusters of unmanned aerial vehicles and purchased most of the technologies necessary for their operation, such as self-organizing UAV communication systems and collision prevention sensors. (These swarms of drones first appeared in the public consciousness during the opening ceremony of the 2018 South Korean Winter Olympics, when illuminated drones flew in formation like obedient constellations across the night sky.)

Although the exact amount of PLA spending on AI is difficult to determine (since many of their AI purchases are most likely classified), $1.6 to $2.7 billion a year on AI-related technologies would put their AI spending on par with that of the US military.

Even the upper limit of that range is far from the number that has spread across Washington for years. It was planned that the Chinese government will spend about $70 billion on AI by 2020. That figure was taken from a 2018 speech by a senior U.S. Air Force general, but the numbers were never confirmed. Instead, the speech ended with fears that the US was falling behind in an AI arms race with China.

As the Record edition writes with reference to the CSET document, at least six large Chinese universities associated with government hacker groups are studying the intersection of cybersecurity and machine learning. The paper, titled Scientists, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Permanent Serious Threat (APT), warned that research being carried out at these Chinese universities today could find its way into methods used by Chinese state-sponsored hackers (APTs).^[6]

2019: Report: Chinese military forces

"China Military Power 2019" Report, Eng

2017: Third place in the ranking of countries in terms of military potential

Notes