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2024
Russia for the first time occupied more than a quarter of global wheat exports
For the first time in history, Russia occupied more than a quarter of the world wheat export market, reaching a record share of 26.1% in the 2023-2024 agricultural season. This became known in mid-July 2024.
According to RIA Novosti, citing data from the International Grain Council (MRZ), the volume of Russian wheat exports in the 2023-2024 agricultural year is 55.3 million tons, which is 15% higher than in 2021-2022. This figure was also higher than the organization's June forecast, which was 53.1 million tons.
The achieved result is the maximum in the entire modern history of Russia. The previous record was recorded in the 2017-2018 agricultural year, when the country's share in world wheat exports was 23.4%.
The total volume of global wheat exports in 2023-2024 reached 211.7 million tons, which is 3 million tons more than in 2021-2022. Against the background of the growth of Russian exports, the positions of other large wheat exporters have changed.
The European Union, which ranks second in terms of exports of this culture, increased supplies by 0.7% to 35.3 million tons. However, the EU's share in world exports has slightly decreased - from 16.8% to 16.7%. This is due to increased competition in the market and climate change. Canada, in third place, reduced exports by 3% to 25 million tons, and its share decreased from 12.3% to 11.8%.
The International Grain Council, which provided export data, is an intergovernmental organization aimed at deepening international cooperation in the field of grain trade, as well as ensuring the stability of the grain market and world food security. The organization regularly analyzes global trends in the grain industry. Russia is a member of this organization.[1]
The top 10 countries for grain production are named. Russia in 6th place
In the season 2023-2024. the supply volume on the world grain market reached 3.59 billion tons. This is 1% more than a year ago, when the figure was 3.55 billion tons. Data on the industry are given in the review of the audit and consulting group "Business Profile," presented on June 19, 2024.
The volume of supply in the grain market includes new production of 2.8 billion tons and reserves at the beginning of the season in the amount of 782 million tons. At the same time, reserves amounted to 21.8% of the world grain supply. It is noted that the key crop in the structure of the global market is corn: it accounts for about 43% of the world's production and reserves, or 1.53 billion tons in natural terms. Wheat is in second place with a share of 29%, which corresponds to 1.06 billion tons. Rice and barley account for 19% and 5% of the industry, respectively. All other crops combined account for about 4%.
In the season 2023-2024 The largest producer of grain is China with a share of 20.6% and a production volume of 578 million tons. In second place are the United States with 16.4% and 459 million tons. India closes the top three with a share of about 10.7% and 301 million tons. Russia in this rating is in sixth position with 4.8% and 135 million tons, behind the European Union (9.7%) and Brazil (5.1%). The top ten also includes Argentina (2.8%), Ukraine (2.2%), Canada (2.1%) and Pakistan (1.7%).
The study says that the first two largest manufacturers in China and the United States are unchanged since the 2008-2009 season, when the United States lost first place to China. The third position since the season 2022-2023. regained India, which lost it in 1999-2000, losing to the countries of the European Union. It is also noted that the volume of world grain exports in the season 2023-2024. increased by 2.4% and amounted to 507.6 million tons.[2]
2022
Increase in fertilizer use
China, Japan and the EU are leading in terms of state support for farmers
Grain Export Leaders
China, US lead cotton fluff production
Cotton fluff, a by-product and the main ingredient needed to make nitrocellulose, is used in artillery shells and other explosives.
European defense groups warn of dependence on Chinese cotton used in gunpowder.
The desire of Western countries to strengthen the armed forces of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in demand for ammunition.
2021
Largest Rice Supplying Countries
Rise in wheat prices
By January 15, 2021, wheat had risen in price to a six-year high in Chicago after Russia saying its new wheat export tax would rise even more than expected.
Russia, the biggest wheat exporter, is adding to measures announced late last year after President Vladimir Putin directed the government to freeze rising food prices due to soaring costs of staples such as bread and sunflower oil.
A grain export quota and a wheat export tax set to take effect on Feb. 15, coupled with declining supply elsewhere and rising demand from China, have sent global grain prices to multi-year highs.
2020: World's largest wheat producers in 20 years
Despite the fact that Russia is the largest exporter, the Russian Federation is not the leader in total wheat production.
The largest wheat producer in the world is China. 17% of all wheat was grown there between 2000 and 2020.
The second place remained for India - 12.5% of the total global wheat production.
Bronze was shared by Russia and the United States - 8.4% each.
2018: Map of land under potatoes and potato countries
1. Belarus - 631.3 kg per 1 person
2. Ukraine - 487.4 kg
3. Netherlands - 384.8 kg
4. Denmark - 343.3 kg
5. Belgium - 299.2 kg
6. Latvia - 251.3 kg
7. Kyrgyzstan - 230 kg
8. Poland - 229.8 kg
9. Russia - 216.8 kg
10. Kazakhstan - 208.5 kg
2016: Comparison of agriculture of leading countries
Agriculture accounts for 4.6% GDP Russia and plays a key role in the country's economy. According to estimates, J`son & Partners Consulting Russia it ranks 3rd in the world in terms of arable land area, grows 8.4% of the world wheat harvest and took 1st place in 2016 in terms of wheat exports (30 million tons). According to Rosstat, in 2016 a record 119.1 million tons of grain were harvested in Russia, which is 13.7% more than in 2015, including 73.3 million tons of wheat (+ 18.6%), 2.5 million tons of rye (+ 19%).
Agriculture's share of GDP is traditionally lower for more advanced economies. Among the economies included in this comparative analysis, the largest share of agriculture is characteristic of India (17%), China (8.9%). Developed economies such as the United States and Germany are characterized by a 1-3% share of agriculture in GDP. Russia occupies an intermediate position in comparison with the selected countries with 4.6% of agriculture in GDP. The actual gross cost of agricultural products in Russia is $60.9 billion.
As the analysis of J'son & Partners Consulting showed, India China has the largest number of employed agriculture in both absolute size and share of total employment. The population of agricultural China is twice the total population of Russia. In advanced economies, there is a decline in the agricultural population and an increase in the cost of agricultural products per worker as an indicator of high efficiency in the agricultural industry. In Russia, the gross cost of agricultural products per employee in 2015 amounted to $8,000, which is almost three times higher than China, but ten times lower than in the United States.
According to J'son & Partners Consulting, of the countries under consideration, Russia has the smallest share of agricultural land reduction and the third largest (after China and the United States, respectively) in terms of the actual value of this indicator.
The global trend of agricultural land loss sets the direction for development towards the development of land previously unsuitable for agriculture and increasing the efficiency of the agricultural sector in crop yield and productivity in animal husbandry.
Yield is an indicator dependent not only on climatic conditions, but increasingly tied to the technique of tillage, selection of new varieties and other criteria for the country's agrotechnical development. Russia shows the largest share of yield growth among the countries under study, while the actual yield of Russia is now 2.5-3 times lower than Germany and the United States.
Germany demonstrates the highest grain yield, while the dynamics of reducing arable land areas is the highest. Also in Russia there is an expansion of the area of arable land for grain crops, over 14 years the actual figure has grown by 1.1 million hectares.
Fertilizers in these statistics mean phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen substances. In the agriculture of the countries under consideration, more and more fertilizers are used to increase yields, the highest indicator belongs to China, where over 7 years the use of fertilizers has increased by 18.7% and in 2013 amounted to 557 kg per hectare. Only in Germany there is a decrease in the use of mineral fertilizers, during the given period this figure decreased by 8.3% and amounted to 203.5 kg per hectare. In Russia, the use of fertilizers is ten times lower than the countries under consideration, and the lowest growth dynamics in the use of fertilizers is 6.8%.
To measure the level of efficiency of agricultural activities in different countries, it is convenient to use the cost of agricultural products per employee.
The highest values of agricultural products per worker, according to J'son & Partners Consulting experts, belong to Canada, the United States and Australia. According to the growth rates for the specified period, the countries were distributed as follows: Russia (+ 42%), Belarus (+ 35%), Spain (+ 33 %), Kazakhstan (+ 29%), Canada (+ 27%), China (+ 26%), USA (+ 15%).
J'son & Partners Consulting experts identified the following regional trends in agricultural mechanization and automation:
- According to the results of the study, India and China are rapidly increasing the level of agricultural mechanization. In China, the agricultural machinery market has been growing at a 13.3% CAGR for the past 5 years. In India during the 2002-2014 period, tractor sales grew more than 3 times.
- In Europe, the fleet of equipment is gradually decreasing, while its complexity and capacity are growing. This is especially noticeable in the long term - over 50 years in Germany, the number of tractors purchased annually has fallen by 3 times. In Italy, tractor purchases fell 2.3 times from 1987 to 2015. At the same time, the average tractor power in Germany reached 155 hp, which is 2-3 times higher than in Asian markets.
- In the United States, the average annual market growth rate was 5% for 2010-2015. The main growth drivers were government subsidies, low interest rates and industry consolidation processes, during which large vertically integrated holdings were formed. Their development increased the demand for large powerful equipment necessary to process large areas. Now this dynamics has been exhausted and due to low world food prices and strengthening dollar in the next 5 years, stagnation is predicted. 4. In Russia, the number of agricultural equipment for 2005-2015. fell on average by more than 50%. This applies to almost all types of equipment: tractors -51%, plows -57%, cultivators -47%. Despite the availability of state support mechanisms, funding for the AGRARIAN AND INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX industry is insufficient. In 2015, investments in fixed assets decreased by 12.9%. At the same time, almost 3 times the amount of funds for the purchase of agricultural machinery at preferential prices (up to 5.2 billion rubles) was increased by 1.4 times. However, these rates are not yet enough: the plan has been fulfilled only for the supply of combine harvesters, and the plan for tractors and combine harvesters has not yet been achieved.
- In Russia, the number of agricultural equipment for 2005-2015. fell on average by more than 50%. This applies to almost all types of equipment: tractors -51%, plows -57%, cultivators -47%. Despite the availability of state support mechanisms for the agro-industrial complex, funding for the industry is insufficient. In 2015, investments in fixed assets decreased by 12.9%. At the same time, almost 3 times the amount of funds for the purchase of agricultural machinery at preferential prices (up to 5.2 billion rubles) was increased by 1.4 times. However, these rates are not yet enough: the plan has been fulfilled only for the supply of combine harvesters, and the plan for tractors and combine harvesters has not yet been achieved
Despite the fact that formally the mechanisms for supporting the agro-industrial complex continue to operate, real state financial assistance to the industry is being reduced. The level of state support for agriculture in Russia is 7-9 times lower than in the USA and the European Union. The largest investments in agriculture are observed in China.
According to consultants J'son & Partners Consulting, in 2017 the following negative factors will exert pressure on the agricultural industry:
- reduction in household income (-5.8% in 2016)
- falling food prices in the world
- risk of reducing the volume of lending to agricultural enterprises
- exhaustion of momentum from the implementation of the agriculture support program in 2009-2012.
A study by J'son & Partners Consulting shows that without significant government support measures, production growth in the agricultural industry will decline, especially amid a 0.5% fall in GDP in 2016.
See also
Notes
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