Assets of Russians

Main article: Russian economy

Deposits

Main item: Deposits of individuals in Russia

• Bank accounts of Russians abroad

Investments in the stock market

Main article: Stock market of Russia

Collective investment

Main item: Collective investments (Russian market): mutual funds, bonds, ILI

History

2024: Russian liquid assets reach RUB 102 trillion The lion's share of savings goes to ruble deposits

Liquid assets of Russians in May 2024 reached 102 trillion rubles. Over the year, an increase of an incredible 19.3 trillion rubles, over two years - almost 36 trillion, and from the minimum after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine (June 24 - 64 trillion) an increase of 38 trillion. Liquid assets are formed through the distribution of savings plus exchange rate and currency revaluation on the trajectory of changes in the ruble and securities quotations.

The structure of liquid assets is dominated by deposits that reached 58.9 trillion rubles (hereinafter all indicators in rubles), of which rubles - 47.9 trillion, cash accounts for 24.4 trillion, their cash in rubles - 15.9 trillion.

Source: Spydell Finance

Investments in the debt market are extremely insignificant - only 4 trillion, of which over 3.4 trillion have been invested in resident bonds.

14.2 trillion was invested in shares and shares at market valuation, where 7.5 trillion directly, and 6.8 trillion through funds and mutual funds, a significant part of which are closed mutual funds. Among 14.2 trillion, 12.7 trillion were invested in securities of residents.

As for the currency part, liquid ruble assets are estimated at 78.5 trillion and, accordingly, foreign exchange assets of about 23.4 trillion in ruble terms.

The share of foreign currency assets decreased to 23% vs 26.6% at the peak in Sep. 23. Until 2022, the share of foreign exchange assets for almost 1.5 years was in the range of 28-29%. The decrease to 23% is due to the effect of the strengthening of the ruble and the high intensity of the distribution of savings in ruble deposits.

The total volume of foreign currency assets is $260 billion, which is almost comparable to the highs in Sen.21-Feb.22, but the main contribution to the increase was provided by deposits in foreign banks, then, excluding deposits in foreign banks, foreign currency assets decreased to $183 billion - at least from Oct.23 and the level of the beginning of 2020.

Aggressive devaluation occurs exclusively in the Russian circuit due to unacceptable storage conditions for savings, and liquidity flows into the outer circuit at a rate of about $10-12 billion per year, as in the 2nd half of 2020.

2023: The number of customers with accounts from 100 million rubles in Russian banks for the year increased by 50%

By the end of 2023, 21.8 thousand bank customers in Russia had capital in the amount of 100 million rubles, which is 50% more than a year earlier. Such data in May 2024 led to the analytical company Frank RG.

This is the HNWI (High-net-worth individual) segment, whose liquid assets exceed $1 million. Until 2022, the number of this group was 18.5 thousand people. The total capital of Russian consumers of the HNWI segment at the end of 2023 was estimated at 13.1 trillion rubles. Compared to the end of 2022, the figure increased by 62%, or more than 5 trillion rubles, and over two years the growth was 19.5% (2.1 trillion rubles). About three quarters of 13.1 trillion rubles (9.4 trillion rubles) fall on the savings of the super-rich, RBC reports with reference to Frank RG materials.

𝓲

Frank RG

According to the study, every fifth (18.8%) bank VIP client in the Russian Federation is super-rich - with a capital of 500 million rubles or more. For 2023, the number of such Russians increased by 60% or 1.6 thousand people.

In the total number of private banking clients, the share of very wealthy clients is insignificant, but their assets occupy 72%. The study says that private banking clients save about 30% of the portfolio in foreign currency. Assets in dollars are 53%, in euros - 12%, in yuan - 31%, in dirhams - 0.6%.

According to the researchers, the key catalysts for the growth of private banking clients' assets were the inflow of new money, deposits with banks, currency revaluation and changes in the value of exchange-traded assets. It is also noted that the growth of the client base of banks was influenced by the flow of depositors from small and private credit institutions to large ones after macroeconomic and geopolitical changes.

The distribution of capital of HNWI clients by country, despite the sanctions, has changed slightly: at the end of 2023, wealthy Russians still did not hold 60-65% of their assets in Russia.^[1]

2022: Growth of ruble assets to 58.3 trillion rubles, 85% in deposits and cash

The increase in ruble assets among Russian households amounted to a record 3.6 trillion rubles for December 2022 (foreign currency assets are not taken into account, see Bank accounts of Russians abroad), in 2021 the increase was 2 trillion, as well as in 2020, and in 2019 - 1.7 trillion. December is always the peak of the distribution of ruble assets, the basis of which is bonus payments, 13 salaries and budget distribution.

Liquid ruble assets are estimated at 58.3 trillion rubles compared to 50.8 trillion rubles in December 2021, including:

• 34.4 trillion in ruble deposits,
• 14.8 trillion cash ruble currency,
• 7.3 trillion in Russian shares and shares (4.3 trillion directly in shares without intermediaries),
• about 1.6 trillion in debt securities.

Cash assets (cash + deposits) amount to 49.2 trillion rubles - a very high share in total liquid assets (almost 85%) compared to 82% before the conflict in Ukraine. In Russia, a strong tilt towards monetary assets. For example, in the United States, the typical share of monetary assets is about 20%, in Europe it balances from 25 to 60% depending on the country. The more developed the country's economy, the lower the share of monetary assets.

In Russia, at the beginning of 2023, about 75-80% of the turnover structure on the stock market is made up of individuals after the departure of non-residents. In theory, this indicates a huge potential for the distribution of liquidity from monetary assets to the stock and bond market, but with one condition - as confidence in the economy, business and social and political stability grows. It's not there yet.

In general, the prospect of private investment outside the market is well manifested in terms of activity in the stock market. Typically, these trends correlate with each other. Investment macroeconomic momentum is synchronized with investment activity in the capital market. In this sense, a depressed market is highly likely to indicate suppressed private investment in the economy.

Another point, the Spydell Finance channel noted, is the risk of inflationary pressure. The Russians have a lot of liquid assets, and if part of these funds goes into consumption, it will spin the flywheel of inflation.

Notes