Cellular (Mobile) Communications (Global Market)

Evolution of mobile networks. Fifth generation mobile networks are a new infrastructure of transport and access networks, ubiquitous availability, high network capacity and data transfer rate

2024: Global Cellular Market Size Reaches $219.38 Billion for the Year

At the end of 2024, the costs of the global cellular market amounted to $219.38 billion. The sector is showing steady positive dynamics, which is due to a number of factors, including the development of 5G networks, the expansion of coverage areas, the growing popularity of mobile data services, etc. Industry trends are addressed in a review by The Business Research Company, which TAdviser reviewed at the end of June 2025.

One of the drivers of the analytics market is the increase in the number of mobile subscribers. According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), by the end of 2024, four out of five people over the age of ten owned a mobile phone. At the same time, there are significant differences between countries. In particular, in high-income states, more than 95% of people over ten have a cellular device, while in low-income areas this figure is 56%. Thus, the overall increase in the number of mobile subscribers occurs primarily in these regions.

The rapid development of 5G networks is also having a positive impact on the global cellular market. Such networks provide the ability to connect a large number of devices that can communicate at high speeds with minimal delays. There has been an acceleration in the adoption of 5G Advanced technology, or 5.5G, which is an intermediate stage between 5G and 6G standards. In addition, the direction of 5G RedCap, or Reduced Capability, is developing: such networks provide basic connection functions adapted for less powerful and productive equipment Internet of things (). IoT All these factors contribute to the expansion of the mobile industry as a whole.

According to available estimates, the share of the population covered by 5G networks in 2024 reached 51% of the total number of inhabitants of the planet. At the same time, there are significant inequalities between high and low-income countries. So, if in high-income states 5G coverage is up to 84% of the population, then in low-income countries this figure is only 4%. Thus, there is significant potential for further development.

The changing behavior of subscribers has an impact on the industry. In particular, there is a rapid growth in the volume of mobile Internet traffic. According to estimates from the World Advertising Research Center (WARC), approximately 2 billion users access the Internet exclusively through their smartphones. In addition, virtual mobile operators (MVNO) are actively developing. The authors of the study call the evolution of mobile devices themselves another market driver.

Geographically, the largest cellular market in 2024 was Asia Pacific, followed by North America. Globally, significant industry players are named:

• Verizon Communications;
• China Mobile;
• AT&T;
• Deutsche Telekom AG;
• Nippon Telegraph and Telephone;
• T-Mobile;
• SoftBank;
• Vodafone Group;
• Nokia;
• Telus;
• Rogers Communications;
• Juniper Networks;
• United States Cellular Corporation;
• Freedom Mobile;
• Saskatchewan Telecommunications;
• Koodo Mobile;
• Virgin Plus;
• Cityfone Telecommunications.

In 2025, the global cellular market is expected to reach $231.55 billion. Analysts at The Business Research Company believe that in the future, the average annual growth rate in complex percentages (CAGR) will be 5.1%. Thus, by 2029, expenses may increase to $282.58 billion.^[1]

2021: Artificial intelligence will develop networks and learn to earn money

On November 17, 2021, Rostelecom, together with Huawei, presented the study "Autonomous Networks: Analysis of Technologies, Efficiency and Applications," prepared in conjunction with the analytical company J'son & Partners Consulting. The study confirms that in the long term there is no alternative to fully automating the development and management of networks at all levels, which involves the total replacement of key processes with autonomous and intelligent ones. The decisive role in the production and business processes of operators will be played by the consumer, who himself will manage the parameters and price of the service. And artificial intelligence (AI) will begin to offer personalized services and tariffs for the needs of the client, and at a specific time and place. Read more here.

2019: World's first 5G network launched in South Korea

The first 5G network was launched in South Korea on April 3, 2019 exactly, the 46th anniversary of Martin Cooper's first call (see below 1973).

2017: Cisco predicts sevenfold growth in mobile data over 2016-2021

By 2021, more inhabitants of our planet will use mobile phones (5.5 billion) than bank accounts (5.4 billion), centralized water supply (5.3 billion), and wired communication (2.9 billion). Such data are provided in the next issue of the Cisco report "Visual Index of the Development of Network Technologies: the global forecast for mobile traffic for 2016-2021". ([1] Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2016 to 2021) ^[2] Factors such as a steady increase in the number of users of mobile communications, smartphones, mobile video, Internet of Things (IoT) connections, as well as an increase in data transfer rates and mobile video consumption in the next five years will lead to a sevenfold increase in mobile traffic.

According to Cisco forecasts, mobile data traffic will reach the following indicators by 2021:

• The share of mobile data traffic will be 20% of all IP traffic (in 2016 this figure was only 8%);
• per capita will account for 1.5 mobile devices, about 12 billion devices connected to mobile networks, including inter-machine communication modules (2016 indicators - 8 billion devices and 1.1 devices. per capita);
• mobile connection speed will triple and reach 20.4 Mbps by 2021 (2016 figure - 6.8 Mbps);
• M2M connections will represent 29% (3.3 billion) of all mobile connections (2016 indicator - 5% (780 million)). With the proliferation of IoT applications in the consumer and business segments, M2M will become the fastest growing type of mobile connection;
• 4G will account for 58% of all mobile connections by 2021 (26% in 2016) and 79% of all mobile data traffic;
• The total number of smartphones, including smartphones, will reach 6.2 billion and exceed half of all devices and connections (2016 figure - 3.6 billion).

The avalanche-like growth of mobile applications and the proliferation of mobile communications are driving the growth of 4G technologies, which will soon be followed by 5G generation technologies. Cisco and others in the industry believe that large-scale deployment of 5G infrastructures can be expected by 2020. The new speeds, low latency and dynamic configuration features expected in 5G networks are needed by mobile operators not only to meet increased user demands, but also to meet new service trends in the mobile, residential and business sectors. According to Cisco forecasts, by 2021 5G services will account for 1.5% of the total mobile data traffic, on average, one 5G connection will generate 4.7 times more traffic than a 4G connection, and 10.7 times more than a 3G connection.

Key Mobile Traffic Forecasts and Trends

1. Global Data Center Traffic Growth

• By 2021, global mobile data traffic will reach 49 exabytes per month, or 587 exabytes per year.
• Equivalent of projected annual growth (587 exabytes per year):
• 122 times more than all global mobile traffic generated just 10 years ago, in 2011;
• this is 131 trillion images (for example, MMS).

2. Accelerated growth of mobile video broadcasts

• Mobile video transmission for the period 2016-2021 will grow 8.7 times and achieve the highest growth rates of all mobile applications. By 2021, mobile video will account for 78% of all mobile traffic.
• The volume of mobile video broadcasts over the specified period will increase by 39 times. By 2021, they will account for 5% of all mobile traffic.

3. The rise of virtual and augmented reality

• Virtual Reality (VR) this immersion of users in a simulated environment, Augmented Reality (AR) is a technological overlay in the real picture of the world.
• VR applications contribute to the spread of wearable devices such as helmets (VR headset). During the period under review, their number will grow fivefold, from 18 to almost 100 million.
• Global VR traffic will increase 11-fold, from 13.3 petabytes (PB) per month in 2016 to 140 PB per month in 2021.
• Global AR traffic will increase 7-fold, from 3 PB per month in 2016 to 21 PB per month in 2021.

4. Connected wearables drive the growth of machine-to-machine connections

• Cisco estimates that the number of wearable devices in the world will almost triple to 929 million (325 million in 2016).
• The number of wearable devices with built-in cellular support by 2021 will reach 69 million (2016 - 11 million).

5. Uploading mobile data traffic to a Wi-Fi ^[3] (offload) traffic ^[4]

• In 2016, 60% of the total mobile data traffic was unloaded, by 2021 this figure will reach 63%.
• In 2016, monthly offloaded traffic (10.7 exabytes) exceeded monthly mobile/cellular traffic (7.2 exabytes).
• The number of public Wi-Fi access points (including home ones) will grow 6 times to reach 541.6 million (in 2016 there were 94.0 million).
• By 2020, the share of total Wi-Fi traffic of mobile and Wi-Fi devices will reach almost half (49%) of all IP traffic (in 2015 - 42%).

6. Mobile Data Traffic Growth Forecasts by Region (2016 - 2021)

• Middle East and Africa: 12-fold increase (2016 - 7.3 exabytes/year, 2021 - 88.4 exabytes/year).
• Asia-Pacific: 7-fold growth (2016 - 37.3 exabytes/year, 2021 - 274.2 exabytes/year).
• Latin America: 6 times growth (2016 - 5.4 exabytes/year, 2021 - 34.8 exabytes/year).
• Central and Eastern Europe: 6-fold growth (2016 - 11.1 exabytes/year, 2021 - 63.0 exabytes/year).
• Western Europe: 6-fold growth (2016 - 8.8 exabytes/year, 2021 - 50.3 exabytes/year).
• North America: 5-fold increase (2016 - 16.9 exabytes/year, 2021 - 76.8 exabytes/year).

2012: Sensational traffic growth

The number of mobile subscribers is 3.2 billion people, while about half of the world's population uses mobile communications. Such data are published in the new GSM Association report "Mobile Economy-2013," which presents a comprehensive overview of the modern mobile communications industry, as well as defines the key opportunities and objectives of the industry for the next five years.

The report notes that as of the end of 2012, there were 6.8 billion mobile connections in the world, and by the end of 2017, their number should increase to 9.7 billion 1.6 billion of these connections accounted for the share of broadband mobile networks in 2012, the number of which will grow to 5.1 billion until 2017, including 920 million LTE connections. The spread of the mobile broadband network led to a sensational increase in traffic in 2012, as a result of which mobile networks transmitted 0.9 exabytes of data every month. In 2017, this figure will increase by 66% and will be 11.2 exabytes per month. It is also noted that the total traffic volume in 2012 was more than the volumes of all previous years combined^[5].

It is expected that by 2017 the number of subscribers will grow by another 700 million people and in 2018 will cross the 4 billion mark.

The total income of the mobile ecosystem is $1.6 trillion, which is equivalent to 2.2% of global GDP. Until 2017, the mobile industry will invest $1.1 trillion in capital investments and bring $2.6 trillion to the global economy. The association's experts also predict that in 2017, about 10 million people worldwide will work in ecosystem companies.

2011

Fourth quarter: Mobile broadband access users soar by 60%

According to Ericsson's updated Communication Market Development and Traffic Growth Report, global mobile coverage was 85% by the fourth quarter of 2011. Today there are about 6 billion cellular subscribers in the world.

Despite the fact that the formal number of mobile users in the world is about 6 billion, their actual number is about 4.1 billion, since many of them are subscribers of several operators. Thus, 60% of the world's population are cellular subscribers.

35% of the 180 million new mobile users registered in the fourth quarter of 2011 are in India and. China Indonesia and Brazil Bangladesh follow in terms of the number of new subscribers.

According to statistics from the past years, on average, the number of cellular users per year grows by 13% and by about 3% in one quarter. About 75% of subscribers use GSM, 3G/HSPA communication is available for 15% of users in the world.

Over the year, the number of mobile broadband access users has grown by about 60%, now their number is close to 1 billion. In all regions, the popularity of smart phones is growing. About 30% of all handsets sold in 2011 were smartphones, while in 2010 the share of smartphones in sales was only 20%. Globally, only 10% of mobile users own smartphones, which indicates the serious potential of the mobile broadband market.

According to Ericsson, mobile data traffic continues to grow actively. In the period from the third quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2011, the volume of data transfer doubled. The growth between the second and third quarters of last year was 18%.

Mobile voice traffic has doubled over the past four years and continues to grow at a steady pace. These indicators are especially relevant in those regions where there is a significant increase in the number of new subscribers, for example, in developing countries of Asia.

The volume of data traffic of mobile users varies greatly depending on the preferences of subscribers and countries. According to Ericsson, one such user downloads about 2GB of data per month on average.

Q3: India and China - drivers of new connections

As of October 2011, global mobile penetration is 82%, and the total number of subscribers is about 5.8 billion. About 75% of all subscribers, or 4.4 billion, fall on the GSM standard and only 14% are users of third generation WCDM ]/HSPA networks. Year-on-year growth was about 13%.

India and China accounted for up to 40% of net growth. Of approximately 135 million new connections in the third quarter of 2011 (estimated), these two countries provided about 20 and 30 million, respectively. For India, this is a decline from previous quarters. Indonesia, Brazil and Bangladesh follow in terms of net growth. There is a steady trend towards smartphone popularity in all regions, and we expect that approximately 30% of the total number of phones sold in the third quarter will be smartphones (compared to 20% for 2010). However, in the whole world, only about 10% of mobile devices are accounted for by smartphones, which means that there is great potential for further growth.

Differentiated pricing for mobile broadband has become a reality, as many operators have outgrown the model of unlimited access at a fixed rate and introduced segmented tariff plans, for example, by volume, time or speed of access. Segmented tariff plans are designed to attract a wide range of users and differentiate offers in order to maximize data revenues and increase total revenue from the provision of services.

The volume and nature of traffic vary greatly between networks and countries; traffic consumption exceeds the average level, for example, in North America. In North America, the volume of voice traffic per user is significantly higher than in other regions, due to the difference in tariffs. On average, a personal computer user downloads 1-2 GB per month, and this figure has grown significantly lately. On the mobile operator's network, a smartphone user consumes up to 10 times more data than a regular mobile phone user. A similar indicator for a PC user with a mobile modem is 100 times higher than for a user of a conventional mobile phone. Thus, the growing popularity of tablets will contribute to further traffic growth. Browsers and video apps generate the most traffic in all devices, according to the company. The amount of data transmitted over WiFi varies depending on the type of device.

As of October 2011, GSM networks cover more than 85% of the world's population; more than 40% have access to WCDMA/HSPA networks. Both technologies will continue to expand their market presence, and in five years WCDMA/HSPA will reach the same penetration level at which GSM is located today. The subsequent increase in the penetration of HSPA networks will be associated with the proliferation of low-cost smartphones, as well as the emergence of a huge number of new devices and applications for mobile broadband access and increased speeds. Several large operators have begun to introduce LTE networks, but in terms of population coverage, only a few percent have access to LTE today. In five years, LTE will reach about the same level of coverage as WCDMA/HSPA is today. In terms of carrier investments globally, WCDMA/HSPA will remain the leading mobile access technology for many years to come.

Total annual investments in WCDMA/HSPA radio access networks exceeded investments in GSM networks in 2009 - eight years after the start of 3G implementation in Western Europe. The task of ensuring the coexistence of GSM, WCDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000 and 4G/LTE, as well as the increasing number of available frequency channels form the basis for investment in multi-standard solutions and further modernization of networks.

In addition to investment in radio access, the high growth rates of mobile and fixed broadband access lead to the need to increase capacity in areas such as traffic skipping, aggregation, transport and routing based on IP and Ethernet technologies.

When operators focus on improving the quality and efficiency of networks, the key success factor is the ability to process a large amount of data while maintaining a high level of service. This need forces operators to form differentiated offers to end users and ensure the highest possible quality of services. Recognizing that the quality of services is becoming more important, some operators today differentiate them by deploying high-tech networks that prioritize the interests and needs of users. These trends drive demand for consulting services to optimize operators' business processes, including network optimization, system integration, and network management services.

2009: TeliaSonera launches world's first 4G network

The first launch of the 4G network took place in 2009 - simultaneously in Norway and Sweden by TeliaSonera. The main feature of 4G has become fully digital communication - voice in it began to be transmitted over the IP network.

2001: World's first commercial 3G network launched in Japan

In 2001, the first commercial 3G network was launched - on October 1, 2001, the Japanese NTT DoCoMo did it. For the first time, 3G networks gave subscribers the opportunity to enjoy broadband (over 1 Mbps) mobile Internet.

1991: GSM Cellular First Call

The first call using GSM cellular technology (second generation, 2G) took place on July 1, 1991. And since then, a new generation of mobile has popped up about every 10 years.

1981: World's first commercial network launched in Sweden

The first commercial network was launched on October 1, 1981 in Sweden - the first generation network, still analog, of the NMT standard.

1973: First Mobile Call

The first mobile call was made on April 3, 1973. Motorola's Martin Cooper called a competitor at Bell Labs.