Cellular (mobile) communication (global market)

Evolution of mobile networks. Fifth generation mobile networks are the new infrastructure of transport and access networks, universal availability, high network capacity and data transfer speed

2021: Artificial intelligence will develop networks and learn how to earn

On November 17, 2021, Rostelecom, together with Huawei, presented the study "Autonomous Networks: Analysis of Technologies, Efficiency and Applications," prepared jointly with the analytical company J'son & Partners Consulting. The study confirms that in the long term there is no alternative to fully automating the development and management of networks at all levels, which involves the total replacement of key processes with autonomous and intelligent ones. The consumer will play a decisive role in the production and business processes of operators, who will himself manage the parameters and price of the service. And artificial intelligence (AI) will begin to offer personalized services and tariffs for the needs of the client, and at a specific time and in a specific place. More details here.

2019: World's first 5G network launched in South Korea

The first 5G network was launched in South Korea on April 3, 2019, the 46th anniversary of Martin Cooper's first call (see below 1973).

2017: Cisco predicts a seven-fold growth in mobile data over a period of 2016-2021.

By 2021, more residents of our planet will use mobile phones (5.5 billion) than bank accounts (5.4 billion), centralized water supply (5.3 billion), and wired communications (2.9 billion). This information is included in the next issue of the Cisco Network Development Visual Index: Global Mobile Traffic Forecast 2016-2021 "(Cisco Visual Networking Index ( VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2016 to 2021) ^[1] Factors such as the steady growth in the number of mobile users,, smartphones mobile video, connections Internet of Things (, Internet of Things IoT), as well as the increase in data rates and consumption of mobile video in the next five years will lead to a seven-fold increase in mobile traffic.

Cisco predicts that mobile data traffic will reach the following targets by 2021:

• The share of mobile data traffic will be 20% of all IP traffic (in 2016 this figure was only 8%);
• 1.5 mobile devices per capita, about 12 billion devices connected to mobile networks, including inter-machine communication modules (2016 figures - 8 billion devices and 1.1 usters. per capita);
• The speed of mobile connections will triple and by 2021 will reach 20.4 Mbps (2016 figure - 6.8 Mbps);
• M2M connections will represent 29% (3.3 billion) of all mobile connections (2016 indicator - 5% (780 million)). With the proliferation of IoT applications in consumer and business segments, M2M will become the fastest growing type of mobile connection;
• 4G will account for 58% of all mobile connections by 2021 (26% in 2016) and 79% of all mobile data traffic;
• The total number of smartphones, including smartphones, will reach 6.2 billion and exceed half of all devices and connections (2016 figure - 3.6 billion).

The avalanche growth of mobile applications and the spread of mobile communications stimulate the growth of 4G technologies, which will soon be followed by 5G technologies. Cisco and others in the industry believe that a large-scale deployment of 5G infrastructures can be expected by 2020. The new speeds, low latency and dynamic configuration features that are expected in 5G networks are needed by mobile operators not only to meet increased user demands, but also to meet new service trends in the mobile, residential and business sectors. Cisco predicts that 5G services will account for 1.5% of total mobile data traffic by 2021, with an average 5G connection generating 4.7 times more traffic than 4G and 10.7 times more than 3G.

Key mobile traffic forecasts and trends

1. Global Data Center Traffic Growth

• By 2021, global mobile data traffic will reach 49 exabytes per month, or 587 exabytes per year.
• Equivalent of projected annual growth (587 exabytes per year):
• This is 122 times more than all global mobile traffic generated just 10 years ago in 2011.
• This is 131 trillion images (for example, MMS).

2. Faster growth of mobile video streaming

• Mobile video transmission for the period 2016-2021 will grow 8.7 times and achieve the highest growth rates among all mobile applications. By 2021, mobile video will account for 78% of all mobile traffic.
• The volume of mobile video broadcasts will grow 39 times over the specified period. By 2021, they will account for 5% of all mobile traffic.

3. Growth of virtual and augmented reality

• Virtual Reality (VR) is the immersion of users in a simulated environment, Augmented Reality (AR) is a technological overlay in the real world.
• VR applications help spread wearables such as helmets (VR headset). During the period under review, their number will increase fivefold, from 18 to almost 100 million.
• Global VR traffic will increase 11-fold, from 13.3 petabytes (PB) per month in 2016 to 140 PB per month in 2021.
• Global AR traffic will increase by 7 times, from 3 PB per month in 2016 to 21 PB per month in 2021.

4. Connected wearables stimulate the growth of machine-to-machine connections

• Cisco estimates that the number of wearables in the world will almost triple and reach 929 million (in 2016 - 325 million).
• The number of wearable devices with built-in cellular support by 2021 will reach 69 million (2016 - 11 million).

5. Unloading of mobile data traffic in Wi-Fi network-unloading (unloading) traffic. ^[2]

• In 2016, 60% of total mobile data traffic was unloaded, by 2021 this figure will reach 63%.
• In 2016, monthly traffic uploaded (10.7 exabytes) exceeded monthly mobile/cellular traffic (7.2 exabytes).
• The number of public Wi-Fi access points (including home) will grow by 6 times and reach 541.6 million (in 2016 there were 94.0 million).
• By 2020, the share of total Wi-Fi traffic of mobile and Wi-Fi devices will reach almost half (49%) of all IP traffic (in 2015 - 42%).

6. Mobile Data Traffic Growth Forecasts by Region (2016 - 2021)

• Middle East and Africa: growth by 12 times (2016 - 7.3 exabytes/year, 2021 - 88.4 exabytes/year).
• Asia-Pacific region: 7 times growth (2016 - 37.3 exabytes/year, 2021 - 274.2 exabytes/year).
• Latin America: growth by 6 times (2016 - 5.4 exabytes/year, 2021 - 34.8 exabytes/year).
• Central and Eastern Europe: growth by 6 times (2016 - 11.1 exabytes/year, 2021 - 63.0 exabytes/year).
• Western Europe: growth by 6 times (2016 - 8.8 exabytes/year, 2021 - 50.3 exabytes/year).
• North America: growth by 5 times (2016 - 16.9 exabytes/year, 2021 - 76.8 exabytes/year).

2012: Sensational traffic growth

The number of mobile subscribers is 3.2 billion people, while mobile communications use about half of the world's population. Such data are published in the new report of the GSM Association "Mobile Economy 2013," which provides a comprehensive overview of the modern mobile communication industry, as well as identify the key capabilities and tasks of the industry for the next five years.

The report notes that at the end of 2012, there were 6.8 billion mobile connections in the world, and by the end of 2017, their number should increase to 9.7 billion 1.6 billion of these connections were accounted for by broadband mobile networks in 2012, the number of which will grow until 2017 to 5.1 billion, including 920 million LTE connections. The spread of the mobile broadband network caused a sensational increase in traffic in 2012, as a result of which mobile networks transmitted 0.9 exabytes of data each month. In 2017, this figure will increase by 66% and will be 11.2 exabytes per month. It is also noted that the total volume of traffic in 2012 was more than the volumes of all previous years combined^[3].

By 2017, the number of subscribers is expected to grow by another 700 million people and in 2018 it will exceed the mark of 4 billion.

The total income of the mobile ecosystem is $1.6 trillion, which is 2.2% of global GDP. In the period until 2017, the mobile communications industry will invest $1.1 trillion in capital investments and will bring $2.6 trillion to the global economy. Experts of the association also predict that in 2017 about 10 million people around the world will work in ecosystem companies.

2011

Fourth quarter: Number of mobile broadband access users soared by 60%

According to an updated Ericsson report on the development of the communications market and the growth of traffic, the global coverage of mobile communications by the fourth quarter of 2011 year was 85%. Today, there are about 6 billion cellular subscribers in the world.

Despite the fact that the formal number of mobile users in the world is about 6 billion, their actual number is about 4.1 billion, since many of them are subscribers of several operators. Thus, 60% of the world's population are cellular subscribers.

India and China accounted for 35% of the 180 million new mobile users registered in the fourth quarter of 2011 . Next in terms of the number of new subscribers are Brazil, Indonesia and Bangladesh.

According to statistics from past years, the average number of mobile users for the year grows by 13% and by about 3% in one quarter. About 75% of subscribers use GSM, for 15% of users in the world 3G/HSPA communication is available.

Over the year, the number of mobile broadband access users has grown by about 60%, now their number has approached 1 billion. In all regions, the popularity of smartophones is growing. About 30% of all handsets sold in 2011 were smartophones, while in 2010 the share of smartphones in sales was only 20%. Globally, only 10% of mobile users own smartphones, which indicates the serious potential of the mobile broadband market.

According to Ericsson, mobile data traffic continues to grow actively. Data transmission doubled between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2011. Growth between the second and third quarters of last year amounted to 18%.

Mobile voice traffic has doubled over the past four years and continues to grow at a steady pace. These indicators are particularly relevant in regions where there has been a significant increase in the number of new subscribers, such as developing countries in Asia.

The volume of data traffic of mobile users varies greatly depending on the preferences of subscribers and countries. According to Ericsson, one such user on average downloads about 2 GB of data per month.

Q3: India and China - New Connection Drivers

As of October 2011, global mobile penetration is 82%, and the total number of subscribers is about 5.8 billion. About 75% of all subscribers, or 4.4 billion, come from the GSM standard and only 14% are users of the third generation WCDM ]/HSPA networks. Year-on-year growth was about 13%.

India and China accounted for up to 40% of net growth. Of the approximately 135 million new connections in the third quarter of 2011 (estimated), these two countries provided about 20 and 30 million, respectively. For India, this is a decrease compared to previous quarters. Indonesia, Brazil and Bangladesh followed the net increase. There is a steady trend towards the popularity of smartphones in all regions, and we expect that approximately 30% of the total number of phones sold in the third quarter will come from smartphones (compared to 20% in 2010). However, in the whole world, only about 10% of mobile devices are smartphones, which means that there is great potential for further growth.

Differentiated pricing for mobile broadband has become a reality, as many operators have outgrown the model of unlimited access at a fixed rate and introduced segmented tariff plans, for example, in terms of volume, time or speed of access. Segmented tariff plans are designed to attract a wide range of users and differentiate offers in order to maximize revenues from data transmission and increase total income from the provision of services.

The volume and nature of traffic varies greatly between networks and countries; traffic consumption exceeds the average level, for example, in North America. In North America, the volume of voice traffic per user is significantly higher than in other regions, due to the difference in tariffs. On average, a user of a personal computer downloads 1-2 GB per month, and this figure has recently increased significantly. In the network of a mobile operator, a smartphone user consumes up to 10 times more data than a user of a regular mobile phone. The same figure for a PC user with a mobile modem is 100 times higher than for a user of a conventional mobile phone. Thus, the growing popularity of tablets will contribute to the further growth of traffic. According to the company, browsers and video applications generate the most traffic in all devices. The amount of data transmitted over the WiFi varies depending on the type of device.

As of October 2011, GSM networks cover more than 85% of the world's population; more than 40% have access to WCDMA/HSPA networks. Both technologies will continue to expand their presence in the market, and in five years WCDMA/HSPA will reach the same level of penetration as GSM today. The subsequent increase in the penetration of HSPA networks will be associated with the spread of inexpensive smartphones, as well as the emergence of a huge number of new devices and applications for mobile broadband access and increased speeds. Several large operators have begun to implement LTE networks, but only a few percent have access to LTE today. In five years, LTE will reach about the same level of coverage that WCDMA/HSPA is at today. In terms of global operator investment, WCDMA/HSPA will remain the leading mobile access technology for many years to come.

The total annual investment in WCDMA/HSPA radio access networks exceeded the investment in GSM networks in 2009 - eight years after the launch of 3G in Western Europe. The task of ensuring the coexistence of GSM, WCDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000 and 4G/LTE, as well as the increasing number of available frequency channels form the basis for investment in multi-standard solutions and further network modernization.

In addition to investments in radio access, the high growth rates of mobile and fixed broadband access lead to the need to increase capacity in areas such as traffic skipping, aggregation, transport, and IP and Ethernet routing.

When operators focus on improving the quality and efficiency of networks, the ability to process large amounts of data while maintaining a high level of service becomes a key success factor. This need forces operators to create differentiated offers to end users and ensure the highest quality of services. Recognizing that the quality of services is becoming increasingly important, some operators are now differentiating them by deploying high-tech networks that prioritize user interests and demands. Such trends stimulate demand for consulting services to optimize operator business processes, including network optimization, system integration, and network management services.

2009: TeliaSonera launches the world's first 4G network

The first launch of the 4G network took place in 2009 - simultaneously in Norway and Sweden by TeliaSonera. The main feature of 4G was fully digital communication - the voice in it began to be transmitted over the IP network.

2001: World's first 3G commercial network launched in Japan

In 2001, the first commercial 3G network was launched - on October 1, 2001, Japanese NTT DoCoMo did this. 3G networks for the first time gave subscribers the opportunity to enjoy broadband (over 1 Mbps) mobile Internet.

1991: First GSM Cellular Call

The first call using GSM cellular technology (second generation, 2G) took place on July 1, 1991. And since then, a new generation of mobile communications has appeared about every 10 years.

1981: The first commercial network in the world launched in Sweden

The first commercial network was launched on October 1, 1981 in Sweden - a first-generation network, still analog, of the NMT standard.

1973: First Mobile Call

The first mobile call was made on April 3, 1973. Martin Cooper of Motorola called a competitor from Bell Labs.