Fermented milk products (Russian market)

Cheese and cottage cheese

Main article: Cheese and cottage cheese (Russian market)

Milk production in Russia

Main article: Milk production and sales in Russia

Export and import of dairy products in Russia

Main article: Export and import of dairy products in Russia

Chronicle

2023: Growth in production of fermented milk products in Russia by 3.1% to 2.67 million tons

In 2023, the production of fermented milk products in Russia increased by 3.1%, amounting to approximately 2.67 million tons. Thus, growth was recorded for the first time since 2019. This is stated in the review of BusinesStat, presented in early February 2024.

Statistics take into account the release of such products as ayran, acidophilin, yogurt, kefir, kumys, prostokvash, ryazhenka, varenets, sour cream, etc. Significant players in the industry are JSC, Wimm-Bill-Dunn JSC, AH End En JSC Firm, Agrocomplex named after N.I. Tkachev JSC "Milcom" and PJSC Dairy Plant. "Voronezh

In 2019, according to estimates, manufacturers in the Russian Federation produced 2.86 million tons of fermented milk products: a drop in relation to the previous year - 1.2%. In 2020 and 2021, a decrease in output was recorded by 1.6% and 0.2%, respectively, with a final result of approximately 2.81 million tons in both cases. In 2022, a decline of another 7.8% followed - up to 2.59 million tons.

It is said that manufacturers, in addition to declining demand, faced a number of other difficulties associated with the geopolitical situation and sanctions. In particular, there were interruptions in the supply of foreign starters, which are the basis for the preparation of sour cream, cottage cheese, kefir and other fermented milk products. The fact is that imported sourdough accounts for 90% of the Russian market, while the total production of sourdough at domestic enterprises meets no more than 10% of the need.

In addition, the supply of foreign equipment and spare parts for it has become more complicated. Plus, the European Commission has limited shipments to Russia of paints (pigments), solvents, bases for the production of stickers and adhesives. Because of this, as noted in the study, there were significant problems with the release of the main types of packaging.^[1]

2022

Growth of sour cream output by 10% to 535 thousand tons

In 2022, 535,396 tons of sour cream were produced in Russia, which is 9.9% more than a year earlier. This is evidenced by the data of TK Solutions analysts released in August 2023.

According to the study, the volume of the market under consideration in 2017-2022 grew by about 1%. The Volga Federal District is the leader in the production of sour cream, which in 2017-2022. accounted for 23.5% of the supply of these fermented milk products. In second place is the Central Federal District with a share of 21.4%.

535,396 tons of sour cream were made in 2022

According to researchers, trends in dairy consumption in 2022 shifted towards more affordable categories under the influence of a decrease in household income against the background of rising prices and increased inflation rates. Thus, there was a weakening of demand for modern dairy categories, including from the dessert group (yogurts, curds) while maintaining/increasing demand for traditional categories of dairy products and milk-containing products with ZMJ. In 2022, the most pronounced trend was the substitution in the diet of certain expensive categories of fermented milk products (including yogurt, sour cream), as well as cottage cheese with more affordable drinking milk.

Sour cream producers managed to cope with the packaging and equipment problems that arose in the spring of 2022 due to Western sanctions, but Sergey Bachin, founder of the AgriVolga agricultural holding, creates a serious problem for the dairy industry.

Consumers, probably, do not even fully understand that if suddenly Europe imposes sanctions on dairy starters, then we will not have sour cream in Russia. We will not be able to produce it, because the dependence here is total. I believe that this is a strategic level problem, "he said.[2]

Sales cut by 6.9% to 2.65 million tonnes

At the end of 2022, 2.65 million tons of fermented milk products were sold in Russia, which is 6.9% less than a year earlier. Moreover, this decline turned out to be the strongest in five years. Compared to 2018, in 2022, the market volume decreased by 9.9%, according to data from BusinesStat analysts, published in early May 2023.

Sales of fermented milk products in Russia continue to decline

According to experts, in 2022, sales of all types of fermented milk products decreased in the Russian Federation, except for kumys and sour cream. Negative dynamics was the result of several factors, including:

• reduction in the number of buyers - both due to the continuing decline in the population and due to migration processes that began after the announcement of partial mobilization;
• as a result of a decrease in real income, Russians began to strive for savings, and certain expensive categories of fermented milk products, for example, yogurts, began to be replaced in the consumption structure with cheaper drinking milk;
• prices for fermented milk products increased significantly. Among the factors of rising prices, the deficit and the rapid rise in packaging prices should be emphasized. In 2022, Western countries limited the supply of paints, solvents and other printing products to Russia. This has created significant challenges for the release of major packaging types. In addition, the Norwegian company Elopak, specializing in the production of packaging for perishable products, has left the Russian market. The multinational packaging manufacturer Tetra Pak also left Russia. The situation was somewhat smoothed out by the decision of both mentioned companies to transfer their Russian divisions to local management.

The volume of exports of fermented milk products from Russia in 2022 amounted to $102.5 million, which is 27.5% higher than in 2018. Over the course of the five-year period, export revenue mainly grew, the reduction was observed only in 2020 (by 2.2%), due to a decrease in the export price of fermented milk products.^[3]

Notes