Fermented milk products (Russian market)

Cheese and cottage cheese

Main article: Cheese and cottage cheese (Russian market)

Milk production in Russia

Main article: Milk production and sales in Russia

Export and import of dairy products in Russia

Main article: Export and import of dairy products in Russia

Chronicle

2024: Kefir production in Russia decreased by 1.2% over the year to 927.1 thousand tons

Kefir production in Russia in 2024 amounted to 927.1 thousand tons. This is 1.2% lower than the level of 2023. This is evidenced by data from the analytical company Alto Consulting Group, published in 2025.

The kefir market remains one of the largest segments of dairy products in the country. It plays an important role in shaping the diet of the population and ensuring food security in Russia.

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Фото: Freepik

The Central Federal District remains the main production region. It accounts for about 26.4% of total output. This is due to the high concentration of processing enterprises in the region. Developed logistics contribute to the efficient distribution of products.

Stable demand for kefir in the largest cities of the country supports production in the Central Federal District. Moscow and the Moscow region are the largest markets for dairy products.

A number of factors influenced the decline in kefir production in 2024:

• Fluctuations in the production of raw milk used for processing
• Increase logistics and transportation costs
• Rising energy costs
• Competition with other milk drinks
• Distribution of plant-based dairy analogues
• Changing consumer habits towards new food formats

Fluctuations in raw milk production volumes directly affect kefir output. The lack of raw materials limits the production capabilities of processors. The seasonality of milk production also creates difficulties for stable production.

The increase in logistics costs affects the cost of kefir. The rise in fuel prices increases the cost of delivering raw materials and finished products. Energy costs increase overall production costs.^[1]

2023

Cream market growth by 18.9% to 320 thousand tons

According to the results of 2023, the volume of the cream market in Russia amounted to 320.0 thousand tons, which is 18.9% more compared to 2022. In monetary terms, the market has tripled over the past five years, reaching 58.9 billion rubles at the end of 2023, according to data from the analytical company GuideMarket, published in December 2024.

Positive dynamics in value terms also confirms the stable demand for this product, experts say. In their opinion, the market growth potential can be up to 350% of the volumes of 2023, if 80% of Russians over three years old use 35 ml of cream per day. However, this forecast is conditional and depends on changes in consumer preferences.

Yoghurt production in Russia for the year increased by 4.5% to 722 thousand tons

The production of yogurt in Russia in 2023 reached 722 thousand tons, which is 4.5% more than a year earlier. This is evidenced by the data of the analytical company TK Solutions, which were released in November 2024.

According to the study, the Central Federal District is the leader in the production of yogurt, which accounted for 70.4% of the market in 2017-2023. Next comes the Volga Federal District with an indicator of 7.9%, calculated in TK Solutions.

Growth in the production of fermented milk products in Russia by 3.1% to 2.67 million tons

In 2023, the production of fermented milk products in Russia increased by 3.1%, amounting to approximately 2.67 million tons. Thus, growth was recorded for the first time since 2019. This is stated in the review of BusinesStat, presented in early February 2024.

Statistics take into account the release of such products as ayran, acidophilin, yogurt, kefir, kumys, prostokvash, ryazhenka, varenets, sour cream, etc. Significant players in the industry are JSC, Wimm-Bill-Dunn JSC, AH End En JSC Firm, Agrocomplex named after N.I. Tkachev JSC "Milcom" and PJSC Dairy Plant. "Voronezh

In 2019, according to estimates, manufacturers in the Russian Federation produced 2.86 million tons of fermented milk products: a drop in relation to the previous year - 1.2%. In 2020 and 2021, a decrease in output was recorded by 1.6% and 0.2%, respectively, with a final result of approximately 2.81 million tons in both cases. In 2022, a decline of another 7.8% followed - up to 2.59 million tons.

It is said that manufacturers, in addition to declining demand, faced a number of other difficulties associated with the geopolitical situation and sanctions. In particular, there were interruptions in the supply of foreign starters, which are the basis for the preparation of sour cream, cottage cheese, kefir and other fermented milk products. The fact is that imported sourdough accounts for 90% of the Russian market, while the total production of sourdough at domestic enterprises meets no more than 10% of the need.

In addition, the supply of foreign equipment and spare parts for it has become more complicated. Plus, the European Commission has limited shipments to Russia of paints (pigments), solvents, bases for the production of stickers and adhesives. Because of this, as noted in the study, there were significant problems with the release of the main types of packaging.^[2]

2022

Growth of sour cream output by 10% to 535 thousand tons

In 2022, 535,396 tons of sour cream were produced in Russia, which is 9.9% more than a year earlier. This is evidenced by the data of TK Solutions analysts released in August 2023.

According to the study, the volume of the market under consideration in 2017-2022 grew by about 1%. The Volga Federal District is the leader in the production of sour cream, which in 2017-2022. accounted for 23.5% of the supply of these fermented milk products. In second place is the Central Federal District with a share of 21.4%.

535,396 tons of sour cream were made in 2022

According to researchers, trends in dairy consumption in 2022 shifted towards more affordable categories under the influence of a decrease in household income against the background of rising prices and increased inflation rates. Thus, there was a weakening of demand for modern dairy categories, including from the dessert group (yogurts, curds) while maintaining/increasing demand for traditional categories of dairy products and milk-containing products with ZMJ. In 2022, the most pronounced trend was the substitution in the diet of certain expensive categories of fermented milk products (including yogurt, sour cream), as well as cottage cheese with more affordable drinking milk.

Sour cream producers managed to cope with the packaging and equipment problems that arose in the spring of 2022 due to Western sanctions, but Sergey Bachin, founder of the AgriVolga agricultural holding, creates a serious problem for the dairy industry.

Consumers, probably, do not even fully understand that if suddenly Europe imposes sanctions on dairy starters, then we will not have sour cream in Russia. We will not be able to produce it, because the dependence here is total. I believe that this is a strategic level problem, "he said.[3]

Sales cut by 6.9% to 2.65 million tonnes

At the end of 2022, 2.65 million tons of fermented milk products were sold in Russia, which is 6.9% less than a year earlier. Moreover, this decline turned out to be the strongest in five years. Compared to 2018, in 2022, the market volume decreased by 9.9%, according to data from BusinesStat analysts, published in early May 2023.

Sales of fermented milk products in Russia continue to decline

According to experts, in 2022, sales of all types of fermented milk products decreased in the Russian Federation, except for kumys and sour cream. Negative dynamics was the result of several factors, including:

• reduction in the number of buyers - both due to the continuing decline in the population and due to migration processes that began after the announcement of partial mobilization;
• as a result of a decrease in real income, Russians began to strive for savings, and certain expensive categories of fermented milk products, for example, yogurts, began to be replaced in the consumption structure with cheaper drinking milk;
• prices for fermented milk products increased significantly. Among the factors of rising prices, the deficit and the rapid rise in packaging prices should be emphasized. In 2022, Western countries limited the supply of paints, solvents and other printing products to Russia. This has created significant challenges for the release of major packaging types. In addition, the Norwegian company Elopak, specializing in the production of packaging for perishable products, has left the Russian market. The multinational packaging manufacturer Tetra Pak also left Russia. The situation was somewhat smoothed out by the decision of both mentioned companies to transfer their Russian divisions to local management.

The volume of exports of fermented milk products from Russia in 2022 amounted to $102.5 million, which is 27.5% higher than in 2018. Over the course of the five-year period, export revenue mainly grew, the reduction was observed only in 2020 (by 2.2%), due to a decrease in the export price of fermented milk products.^[4]

Notes