Import substitution - guarantee of security for the Russian vendors

Course drivers for domestic manufacturer

According to the forecasts of IDC read in November, 2014 in the market of cybersecurity in Russia segments of the equipment and software for data protection in dollar expression at the end of year will show recession. Only the segment of services cybersecurity will be able to provide positive dynamics. One of the key reasons – decrease in trust of customers to foreign vendors.

IDC does not provide complete statistics at the end of 2014, but notes several factors. The Segment of services cybersecurity will show growth approximately for 4.8%, to $540 million. Such dynamics of analytics of the agency is explained with complication of nature of threats. It, in turn, leads to increase in demand for consulting and implementations in the field of cybersecurity. IDC submitted the forecast and for segments of information security. So, the Volume of a segment of the software of cybersecurity will be $396 million. Lead to it increase in demand for software of network security, control of vulnerabilities, scannings of mail (grew by 30% in 2013). Analysts predict sales increase of complete solutions of security (UTM) for 9%.

More complete statistics was submitted by analysts of J'son & Partners Consulting. In March, 2015 the agency estimated the volume of the Russian market of means and services in the field of information security at 51 billion rubles (annual increment of 13%). In the report of J'son it is specified that this indicator is slightly higher than the general nominal growth rates of IT market in Russia (10% according to Rosstat). If to resign in the comparable ruble prices, then the market of cybersecurity in Russia showed close to zero growth.

Analysts note that the main segments of the Russian market of cybersecurity remained the same: means of network security and means of antivirus protection (jointly occupy more than 70% of the market). In a total amount of the Russian IT market, the market of means and services of information security occupies about 7%. Market estimates at the end of 2014 which provided TAdviser representatives of supplier companies of solutions in the field of cybersecurity, considerably differ.

For example, Andrey Golov, the CEO of Code of Security company, estimated the domestic market of 80 billion rubles. "The size of the market of cybersecurity in 2014 by our estimates approximately was $1 million or 50-55 billion rubles", - Alexander Kovalyov, the deputy CEO of Zecurion tells. Stagnation is announced by the assistant department head of information security of LANIT-Integration company Alexander Hegay: "The size of the market of information security in Russia for 2014 showed so insignificant growth that it is possible to speak safely about its stagnation in comparison with average growth by 8-15% in previous years".

Experts agree in opinion that economic factors had the greatest impact on the volume of the Russian market.

Sergey Zemkov, the managing director of Kaspersky Lab in Russia, the countries of Transcaucasia and Central Asia, considers that negative factors were noticeable already in the second half of 2013: slowing down of sales, reduction of budgets (and first of all at state customers), etc. "In 2014 influence of all these factors amplified, at the same time additional difficulties against the background of a difficult macroeconomic and political situation were added", - he says.

So, sharp decline of ruble played a double role. According to Andrey Golov, on the one hand the cost of the completing elements many times increased, the prices of foreign means of protecting, services in their technical support and updating grew. In such conditions the commercial sector sequestered cybersecurity budgets and froze projects. According to Sergey Zemkov, decrease in budgets on the cybersecurity projects for most the companies averaged from 15 to 20%.

On the other hand, because of sanctions and a course towards import substitution of state company were forced to strengthen cybersecurity, creating new infrastructures. According to Alexander Kovalyov, sanctions seriously changed structure of the cybersecurity market and strengthened positions of serious producers. As a result the cybersecurity market – one of the few IT directions which shows positive dynamics. The incidents caused by forced economy can lead to even more expensive effects, having affected primary activity of the company. Sergey Zemkov adds that cybersecurity – strongly regulated industry where many protective products need to be implemented for compliance to requirements of the legislation. Partly it provides market growth.

The Russian vendors in a pursuit of foreign analogs

Respondents of TAdviser representatives of the companies vendors at the end of 2015 expect either stagnation of the market of cybersecurity, or growth in terms of money, the currency rate caused partly, at the level of 15-20%. The market of information security tools, according to forecasts of IDC, in a ruble equivalent will show zero dynamics.

Analysts of J'son & Partners Consulting in the spring of 2015 made the forecast for market development of cybersecurity till 2018. In 2015 the main effect from the ruble of rise in price of import products cybersecurity caused by devaluation will be noticeable. It will cause falling of the Russian market of cybersecurity in the comparable prices. The expected steadily negative macroeconomic background will become one of the main drivers of structural changes of IT market in general, and the market of means and services of information security in particular.

Senior analyst of IDC Sergey Yakovlev. expects redistribution of shares in the market of cybersecurity between the main participants. However and at this time the market has drivers of growth: so, the Russian companies in this situation locate powerful benefits.

About 50% of the market of software products and about 30% of sales in a segment of hardware solutions fall to the share of the Russian companies already now. The course towards import substitution and currency rate can obviously weaken positions of foreign vendors. Legislators are also ready to support domestic manufacturer. For example, Vladimir Putin signed on July 1 the law which provides creation of the register of domestic programs and a possibility of restrictions of use of foreign software in the presence of the corresponding domestic analog.

Situation in economy and a course towards import substitution – here pacing factors which need to be considered in the forecast for dynamics of the market of cybersecurity during the period up to three years. If to take the minimum development cycle of corporate cybersecurity products in attention, then the main gain of "domestic analogs" is necessary for 2015. Andrey Gorlov notes that the profit of the company at the end of 2014 was reinvested generally in development and production of new products. The peak of emergence of import-substituting products should be expected at the end of 2015 - the beginning of 2016, experts are sure. Customers can expect start of new products and emergence of new niches in cybersecurity (the same an APCS, QUO, etc.).

According to Sergey Zemkov customers, and especially it concerns public sector, think of more effective use of the remaining means. Long-playing projects are winded down, audit of the existing resources and their optimization for the solution of the same tasks without new too large-scale investments is conducted. "Many companies begin to consider the existing domestic analogs which they did not take into account earlier. Customers begin to select more attentively producers and suppliers, and the competition among them amplifies. In general in the market there is a redistribution towards more professional services and services now that will do the market good", - he adds.

The state order for development of first-priority IT solutions will be able to come to the rescue of domestic manufacturer, Sergey Zemkov considers: "It will give the new chance for development of the industry of domestic development. It is not only about deliveries of software, but also about services in migration, adaptation and setup, personnel training, etc. that will also allow the Russian integrators to use this trend for maintenance of the business".

Import substitution will lead to what a key trend, and can be, the real fact, there will be a reduction of technology lag of Russia from the countries of the West. "As paradoxically sounds, but growth of the Russian market of cybersecurity is just put in the most technology lag from the West. Anyway we try to increase the technology advantages to the maximum. It is necessary to look for new niches, to master the new markets, including foreign and to do it successfully, competitive technologies are necessary", - Andrey Gorlov adds.