Internet devices

The forecast for 2013-2017: tablets will overtake the PC on deliveries

The world market of intelligent Internet devices, according to IDC Worldwide Smart Connected Device Market Crossed 1 Billion Shipments in 2012, Pulls Near Samsung in Fourth Quarter Apple^[1], in 2012 in annual comparison grew by 29.1%, having overcome important border in 1 billion devices, in volume it reached $576.9 billion. Growth of the market in 2012 was in many respects caused by increase in deliveries of tablet computers by 78.4% in a year, they reached 128 million pieces of equipment in 2012.

IDC predicts that in 2013 deliveries of tablets will exceed in delivery scope of desktop PCs, and in 2014 – deliveries of portable computers. In 2013 world deliveries of desktop computers, as expected, will decrease by 4.3%, and deliveries of portable computers will grow by 0.9%.

On the contrary, the world market of tablets will reach of 190 million pieces of equipment and by 2012 will grow by 48.7%, and the market of smartphones for a similar period (from 2012 to 2013) will increase by 27.2% to 918.5 million units.

The forecast of deliveries of Internet devices till 2017, one million units

IDC, 2013

As for regional features, in emerging markets in 2012 the market of intelligent Internet devices grew by 41.3%, separately a segment of tablets for 111.3% and smartphones for 69.7% in comparison with 2011.

In mature markets growth in general was 15.6%. By 2017, according to forecasts of IDC, the markets of tablets and smartphones will have the maximum potential in developing countries. By this moment the segment of tablets will reach of $125 billion, and smartphones - $462 billion. Growth of a segment of portable PCs will be expressed by an unambiguous indicator, and desktop PCs will become negative at all by 2017.

The forecast of growth of deliveries of Internet devices for categories till 2017, one million units

IDC, 2013

In general by 2017, according to the estimates of IDC, the world market of intelligent Internet devices can make of 2.2 billion pieces of equipment and in terms of money $814.3 billion.

The forecast for 2012-2016

In 2012 world deliveries of intelligent Internet devices will exceed 1.1 billion pieces, and by 2016 IDC expects that supply rate will reach 1.84 billion pieces, more than having doubled in comparison with 2011. The annual average growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% during the five-year forecast period will be result of it.

As for platforms, IDC expects quite considerable shift during the period from 2011 to 2016, and the share of once dominating Windows on x86 platform (provided by computers from Windows OS on any x86 CPU - compatible architecture) will decrease from 35.9% in 2011 (the biggest in the market) to 25.1% in 2016.

At the same time Android devices share on ARM processors will increase a little: from 29.4% in 2011 up to 31.1% in 2016 (the biggest in the market).

The share of devices based on iOS will also increase: from 14.6% in 2011 up to 17.3% in 2016.

"Growth of Android is directly tied to distribution of inexpensive devices, - Tom Mainelli, the director of a research, Mobile Connected Devices writes. - Therefore though we expect that tens of vendors of devices will receive this or that share in the Android market, will maintain by much difficult steadily profitability. In the same way, we expect that the big percent of application developers will be still aimed at iOS despite a smaller general market share of this platform as users of IOS proved more readiness to pay for high-quality applications".

"Growth of smartphones the countries of the Pacific Rim, especially will move China where mobile operators subsidize purchase of 3G-smartphones, thereby increasing the total potential market. In many if not in all, cases the smartphone is the main channel of connection to the Internet, - Will Stofega, the director of the program, Mobile Phone Technologies and Trends writes. - In the countries where [purchase] of devices is not subsidized with operators, the competitive, based on selection of components prices will help to increase volume".

2011

The total volume of deliveries of intelligent Internet devices according to IDC in 2011 exceeded 916 million pieces, and total income exceeded 489 bln. dollars, IDC reports. These digits reflect summary data^[2]

The conducted IDC research prompts that many people have and regularly use several intelligent Internet devices.

"We live during an era of diversification of devices, - O'Donnell, the vice president of a research, Clients and Displays, IDC writes, - and we believe that the number of the people using several different devices will only grow. All focus in that, moving further to integrate all these devices into a whole on the basis of use of personal cloud applicaions and services. In it main (and difficult) a problem of an era which we often called an era of PK-plus".

Notes