Investment position of Russia

Main article: Russian economy

2022: $1.2 trillion positive investment position

As of July 2022, Russia has a huge positive investment position (over $1.2 trillion), if you evaluate the slice on foreign currency. This analysis is relevant in the context of sanctions restrictions during the conflict in Ukraine, since assets in foreign currency are closed to foreign jurisdiction, i.e. this is the amount of assets that potentially fall under blocking.

There is data so far only as of July 1, 2022, but they cover 4 months of "new Russian normality."

The first thing that should be noted is the growth of external assets denominated in foreign currency. As of January 1, 2022, assets were 1.53 trillion, decreased to 1.49 trillion as of April 1, 2022 and rose sharply to 1.56 trillion by July 1, 2022.

Source: Spydell Finance

Assessing the structure, other investments stand out, which have grown by an incredible 30% since January 1, 2022 (in just six months) - this is the most powerful breakthrough in the modern history of Russia for this category in such a short period of time.

Apparently, the entire distribution of external assets (and this, by the way, plus 108 billion in 6 months) was concentrated in the cache/cash assets. The Bank of Russia does not disclose the currency structure and is not going to disclose, but this time, at least 40% settled in the currencies of neutral countries.

Of the 1.56 trillion external assets, almost $1 trillion is the private sector, the rest is the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. The Central Bank is extremely reluctant to disclose the structure of assets, but according to indirect signs, the private sector, before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, held about 98% of the external position in the currencies of unfriendly countries. Since April 2022, this proportion has been changing towards the yuan, which accounts for about 75-80% of the distribution of assets. The main channels of asset distribution are China, Hong Kong, the UAE, Turkey and very little to India, but 60% still goes to the currencies of unfriendly countries.

Positioning hasn't changed much. The foreign exchange position continues to increase, despite the risks of blocking.

The West holds in check almost 1 trillion bucks of assets of Russian individuals. Several times more than a possible Russian response to the blockages. This is the lever of Western control over the Russian elite, they hold trump cards, the Spydell Finance channel noted.