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2024: Up to 21%
On October 25, 2024, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 200 bp. - up to 21%. The Bank of Russia admits the possibility of raising the key rate at the next meeting.
On September 13, 2024, the Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 100 bp to 19%.
On July 26, 2024, the Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 18% per annum. The decision is aimed at reducing high inflation caused by high government spending on security.
2023: Rate increase to 16%
On December 15, 2022, the Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 100 bp to 16%.
The rate became the maximum from May 3, 2022, and before that the equal or higher rate was for 48 calendar days from December 16, 2014 to February 1, 2015 (17%).
Current inflationary pressures remain high. At the end of 2023, annual inflation is expected near the upper limit of the forecast range of 7.0-7.5%. At the same time, GDP growth in 2023, according to the Bank of Russia, will be higher than the October forecast and exceed 3%. This means that the upward deviation of the Russian economy from the balanced growth trajectory in the second half of 2023 turned out to be more significant than the Bank of Russia estimated in October.
The return of inflation to the target in 2024 and its further stabilization near 4% suggest a long period of maintaining tough monetary conditions in the economy.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will decrease to 4.0-4.5% in 2024 and will be near 4% in the future.
Earlier on October 27, 2023, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate by 200 bp, to 15% from 13% per annum.
The current inflationary pressure in Russia has significantly increased and is developing above the expectations of the Central Bank, the Bank of Russia noted. The Central Bank raised its inflation forecast in Russia for 2023 from 6-7% to 7-7.5%.
Economic activity is growing faster than the Bank of Russia expected in September. This increases the steady inflationary pressure in the economy.
The return of inflation to the target implies a long period of maintaining tough monetary conditions in the economy.
The Central Bank is laying a rate increase to 15.5% in December. The forecast for the average rate in 2024 was raised to 12.5-14.5% from 11.5-12.5%. The forecast for the average rate in 2026 was raised to 6.0-7.0% from 5.5-6.5%.
Earlier on September 15, 2023, the Bank of Russia decided to raise the key rate by 100 bp, to 13.00% per annum.
On August 15, 2023, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate to 12% from 8.5%. The decision is aimed at providing conditions for the return of inflation to 4% in 2024 and stabilization in the future - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation allows a further increase in the key rate in the event of increased proinflationary risks.
However, an emergency rate increase in Russia could not raise the ruble after the collapse.
"The recent acceleration of the weakening of the ruble may indicate that cracks have appeared in the capital control system, and therefore capital can leave Russia faster and faster," said Ulrich Leichtmann, head of foreign exchange strategy at Commerzbank AG. "Raising the rate is unlikely to convince those who have a choice whether to keep their capital in Russia."
Earlier on July 21, 2023, the Bank of Russia decided to raise the key rate by 100 bp, to 8.50% per annum. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation allows a rate increase at the next meetings.
2022
Rate cut to 7.5%
On September 16, 2022, the Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate for the sixth time in a row. This time by 50 base points, up to 7.5 percent per annum.
Rate cut to 8%
On July 22, 2022, the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate immediately by 150 bp, to 8% per annum.
The current growth rate of consumer prices remains low, contributing to a further slowdown in annual inflation. In June, annual inflation fell to 15.9% (after 17.1% in May) and, according to estimates as of July 15, decreased to 15.5%.
The Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of reducing the key rate in the second half of 2022. According to our forecast, annual inflation will decrease to 12.0-15.0% in 2022, 5.0-7.0% in 2023 and will return to 4% in 2024.
Rate cut to 9.5%
On June 10, 2022, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduced the key rate to 9.5% per annum.
Rate cut to 11%
On May 26, 2022, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at an extraordinary meeting decided to reduce the key rate by 300 basis points (bp) - up to 11% per annum.
Bank of Russia noted a significant slowdown in current price growth. "The weakening of inflationary pressure is facilitated by the dynamics of the exchange rate ruble , along with a noticeable decrease in inflation expectations of the population and business," the Central Bank emphasizes.
Proinflationary risks also limit the continued inflow of funds on term ruble deposits and the maintenance of credit activity at a low level.
Rate cut to 14%
On April 29, 2022, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduced the key rate immediately to 14% from 17% per annum.
External conditions for the economy remain difficult, but the risks to price and financial stability have ceased to grow. When the situation develops in accordance with the basic forecast, the Central Bank sees space to reduce the key rate in 2022.
The key rate on average for the year in 2022 is expected to be in the range of 12.5-14%.
Rate cut to 17%
On April 8, 2022, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate from April 11, 2022 by 300 bp, to 17.00% per annum.
"External conditions for the Russian economy remain difficult and significantly limit economic activity. The risks to financial stability remain, but to date they have ceased to grow, including thanks to the measures taken to control the movement of capital. There is a steady inflow of funds for term deposits. Annual inflation growth will continue due to the base effect, but recent weekly data indicate a significant slowdown in current price growth, including due to exchange rate dynamics. ruble The tightening of monetary conditions has occurred partially compensated by lending support programs from the Government and the Bank of Russia, but in general will continue to limit proinflationary risks, "the bank said.
Increase in the rate to 20% against the background of a special operation in Ukraine
On February 28, 2022, the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia was increased to a record 20% amid a special operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine.
External conditions for the Russian economy have changed dramatically. The increase in the key rate will ensure an increase in deposit rates to the levels necessary to compensate for increased devaluation and inflation risks. This will support financial and price stability and protect citizens' savings from impairment.
Rate increase to 9.5%
On February 11, 2022, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as expected, raised the key rate by 1 pp to 9.5%. Admits the possibility of its further increase at the next meetings. The Central Bank raised expectations for the average key rate in 2022 to 9-11% from 7.3-8.3%, from February 14 to the end of the year it will be 9.1-11.3%.
The Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2022 to 5-6% from 4-4.5%.
2021
Increase rate to 8.5%
On December 17, 2021, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate - by 1 percentage point, to 8.5% per annum.
The Central Bank allowed the possibility of further raising the key rate at the next meetings.
Increase rate to 7.5%
On October 22, 2021, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate to 7.5% and kept the signal on new steps unchanged: it still allows for the possibility of further increases in the key rate at the next meetings.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation expects inflation at the end of 2021 7.4-7.9% (the previous forecast is 5.7-6.2%). In 2022, inflation is still expected at the level of 4-4.5%.
The dollar fell below 70 rubles for the first time since the summer of 2020.
Rate increase to 6.75%
Following a meeting of the Board of Directors on September 10, 2021, the Bank of Russia decided to raise the key rate by 0.25% to 6.75% per annum.
Rate increase to 6.5%
On July 23, 2021, the Bank of Russia decided to raise the key rate by 100 bp, to 6.50% per annum. The most aggressive rate hike since the 2014 crisis.
According to the Bank of Russia, in the second quarter of 2021, the Russian economy reached a pre-pandemic level.
In the baseline scenario, annual inflation will be 5.7-6.2% in 2021. Taking into account high inflation expectations, the balance of risks for inflation has shifted towards pro-inflationary ones and may lead to a longer deviation of inflation up from the target. The decision on the key rate is aimed at limiting this risk and returning inflation to 4%.
Rate increase to 5.5%
Following its meeting on June 11, 2021, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 50 bp to a level of 5.50% per annum.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate to 5%
In April 2021 CENTRAL BANK OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION , he raised the key rate to 5%. The Bank of Russia's forecast for inflations 2021 was raised to 4.7-5.2%. Bank of Russia will evaluate the feasibility of further raising the key rate at the next meetings.
Russia's twin countries at key rate: Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia
Over the past 7 years, the Central of banks these five countries have changed the rate the maximum number of times and in the maximum range.
Increase to 4.50%
On March 19, 2021, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the first time since the end of 2018 decided to raise the key rate by 25 bp, to 4.50% per annum.
2020
In July 2020, the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 0.25 percentage points - to 4.25% per annum.
In June 2020, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduced the key rate to 4.5%.
In April 2020, the Bank of Russia reduced the rate by 50 percentage points to 5.5%. At this level, the cost of borrowing was last in 2014.
2015
2014: Rate rise from 10.5% to 17%
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