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2023: World's eleventh largest PPP GDP
2022
Mexico's share of global PPP GDP falls to 1.8%
Main article: World Economy
GDP estimate - $1.4 trillion
GDP size forecast - $1.3 trillion
2021: GDP size - $1.29 trillion
2020: The impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the economy
The COVID-19 epidemic, according to Coface experts, has significantly worsened the already bleak prospects for the Mexican market for 2020. Analysts at the company predict that Mexico will suffer from the coronavirus more than most other Latin American countries.
Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2020 indicate a decrease in national GDP by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, or by 1.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Both industry and the services sector were equally hard hit. In the second quarter, Coface economists predict, the Mexican market will suffer significantly more than in the first, since quarantine measures were introduced only at the end of March.
The country's GDP, according to the company's experts, will decrease by 8% in 2020 - significantly stronger than in the crisis 1995 (-6.3%) and 2009 (-5.3%). Such a sharp decline in GDP will be due to a number of negative factors:
- Due to the budget deficit, the authorities have taken an extremely limited number of measures to support businesses suffering from quarantine restrictions and interruptions in supply chains. Small and medium-sized enterprises will be hardest hit, which, it is worth noting, account for approximately 40% of the country's total jobs.
- A sharp decrease in tourist flow will also have an extremely negative effect on the Mexican market. According to the OECD, the tourism sector generates about 8% of Mexico's GDP and accounts for about 77% of the country's total service exports.
- Separately, it's worth mentioning the role of overseas remittances from individuals in the Mexican economy - many Mexicans work in the United States to support a family living in Mexico. Remittances of individuals from abroad (mainly from the United States) in 2019 accounted for about 3% of the country's GDP. Given the explosive rise in unemployment in the United States, remittances to Mexico can be expected to decline, which will negatively affect the already low purchasing power of the population. As a result, sectors that are especially heavily dependent on domestic consumer demand - primarily retail - will suffer .
- Mexican industry is extremely vulnerable to recession in neighboring countries, especially the United States, with the industrial manufacturing sector accounting for about 90% of the country's total export portfolio. Given the increase in unemployment and a decrease in incomes of the population both in Mexico itself and in neighboring countries, it is possible to predict a sharp decline in sales of products that are not classified as essential goods. The Mexican auto industry, which accounts for 20% of the country's GDP and about 16% of jobs, will suffer more than other production sectors, according to Coface analysts.
2019: Recession - 0.1%
In 2019, Mexico's GDP contracted by 0.1%.
2018: 1.43% of global GDP, 15th in the world
See also