Main article: Russian Foreign Trade
2023
Worsening trade balance in Q2 due to lower energy prices
In the second quarter of 2023, the deterioration of Russia's trade balance to $ 15.6 billion was caused by a decrease in export volumes, as well as falling prices, mainly for energy exports.
Exports of goods and services in aggregate decreased by 32% from 162.9 to $110.7 billion
Imports of goods and services rose 33% from 71.5 to $95.1 billion.
Surplus of $41.5 billion for January-April
The trade balance amounted to $12.7 billion for April and $41.5 billion for January-April 2023. Much or little? In 2022, for the same period, it was 113.7 billion, but the coincidence in 2022 was, to put it mildly, non-standard and very rare (record prices for raw materials and not yet blocked supplies).
In 2021, the trade balance for January-April was 39.1 billion, in 2020 - 40.7 billion, in 2019 - 61.8 billion.
Even with all the restrictions from unfriendly countries, the trade balance in 2023 remains at a relatively high level and only 12% lower than the average trade balance for January-April from 2015 to 2021.
2.8-fold decrease in surplus to $15.3 billion in the first two months
The foreign trade surplus Russia in January-February 2023 amounted to $15.3 billion - 2.8 times less than in the same period last year ($43.5 billion), follows from the preliminary assessment of the Bank of Russia.
Shrinking trade surplus to $9bn in January
The surplus of foreign trade in goods and services of Russia in January decreased to $9 billion - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
9 billion trade surplus - the levels of January-February 2021, about three times lower than in mid-2022, 1.5 times lower than in 2018-2019 in a comparable period.
2022
With which countries Russia has the largest trade surplus. Schedules
In May 2023, the list of countries to which Russia supplies more goods and services than it receives from them became known. At the end of 2022, it included the EU, Turkey, India, China and other states.
The surplus with the European Union, which topped the list, reached $137.8 billion in 2022, and $38 billion in China. Indicators for Turkey, China and India amounted to $49.5 billion, $38 billion and $31.8 billion, respectively. With the United States, Russia has a surplus of $13.3 billion.
The surplus with India is "abnormal," writes RBC. Compared to the pre-sanction year 2021, the figure increased 6.4 times. In 2023, this plot continues: in the first quarter of 2023, supplies from Russia to India reached $14.9 billion, while supplies from India reached less than $1 billion.
 | Russian-Indian trade showed a certain anomaly last year, the nature of which is quite understandable: Russian oil exports were significantly redirected to this country, "said Alexander Knobel, director of the RANEPA Center for International Trade Research. |  |
No anomalies were recorded for the rest of the countries. Sofya Donets, economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital, admitted that the surplus situation will change significantly based on the results of 2023. She believes that the surplus with Europe will be significantly reduced by reducing exports, which is reorienting to the Asian direction.
In 2022, the share of settlements for exports from Russia in US dollars and euros decreased, according to the Central Bank, almost halved - from 87% in January 2022 to 48% in December. The share of the ruble in export calculations increased over the same period from 12 to 34%, the yuan - from 0.5 to 16%. Settlements with countries EEU are carried out mainly in. rubles So, according to the investment consultant of FG "" Finam Timur Nigmatullina, at the beginning of 2022, about 80% of mutual trade Kazakhstan Russia with was carried out in rubles.[1]
Balance of payments surplus reaches record $227.4 billion
The surplus of the current account of the balance of payments of Russia in 2022 almost doubled compared to the previous year, follows from the assessment of the Bank of Russia. It amounted to $227.4 billion. In 2021, this figure was $122.3 billion.
The regulator attributed the increase in the current account surplus to a significant increase in the surplus balance of goods and services.
| | The significant expansion of the positive balance of the financial account of the balance of payments was formed both by a decrease in obligations to non-residents and by a proportionate increase in foreign assets of the Russian economy, the Central Bank said. | |
According to the Bank of Russia, the surplus of foreign trade in Russia in goods and services in 2022 increased by 66% in annual terms and amounted to $282.3 billion. The positive balance of Russia's foreign trade in goods and services in 2021 amounted to $170.1 billion. The significant expansion of the surplus balance of the financial account of the balance of payments was formed both by a decrease in obligations to non-residents and by a proportionate increase in foreign assets of the Russian economy, the Central Bank specified.
In general, in 2022, the volume of imports of goods and services decreased, while the decrease in imports observed in the first half of 2022 compared to the corresponding indicator of the previous year was replaced by a gradual recovery, the Central Bank added.
The volume of Russian exports of goods and services in 2022 amounted to $628.1 billion, which is 14% more than the volume of exports in 2021 ($550.0 billion). Thus, last year its previous absolute maximum of 2013 ($592.0 billion) was exceeded. The volume of imports in 2022 decreased by 9% compared to 2021 - to $345.8 billion from $379.9 billion.[2]
Record surplus in trade in goods up to $333 billion
Russian commodity exports in 2022 set a historical record - $591.5 billion, the surplus of trade in goods also turned out to be a record - $332.4 billion, follows from the data published on March 13, 2023 by the Federal Customs Service (FCS) on foreign trade for 2022 and the historical data of Rosstat.
Russia's trade surplus with the EU remains at record levels
The trade surplus of Russia and the YeS-27 countries continues to decline for the seventh month in a row, but still remains at very high levels by historical standards.
In October 2022, Russia had a surplus of 8.8 billion euros with the EU countries, which is less than in October 2021 (9.4 billion euros), but should be compared with the average values.
The average monthly surplus in 2021 between Russia and the EU was 6.1 billion euros, in 2020 - 1.3 billion, in 2019 - 4.8 billion, in 2018 - 6.5 billion, in 2017 - 4.6 billion, and from 2012 to 2014 an average of 6.8 billion.
From 2013 to September 2021, the trade surplus did not exceed 8 billion euros, so the current 8.8 billion is very good, but significantly less in comparison with the anomaly after the SVO against the background of a record release of gas and oil prices.
In March 2022, the trade surplus was 19.6 billion euros, but has been continuously shrinking since April. From January to October 2022, the surplus amounted to a record 134 billion euros, compared with 53 billion in 2021.
This happens with the rapid compression of Russia's exports to the EU (the graph shows how imports from Russia to the EU-27). The maximum volume of exports from Russia to the EU was in March 2022 - 23.6 billion euros, and now - 13.1, but this is above the average 12 billion euros, which was considered a good pre-crisis level in the period before the pandemic in 2018-2019.
Imports from the EU to Russia stabilized by 4-4.3 billion euros, finding a balance under sanctions restrictions, but this is at least from 2009, 2015 and comparable to 2005. In general, imports almost halved from 7.6 billion euros between March and October 2021 to 4 billion in 2022.
Foreign trade surplus $238 billion over 9 months
Central Bank of Russia: the surplus of foreign trade in goods and services in January-September 2022 amounted to $238 billion against $107.8 billion a year earlier.
The surplus of foreign trade in the Russian Federation in goods and services for 7 months amounted to $192.4 billion
The surplus of foreign trade in the Russian Federation in goods and services in January-July 2022 amounted to $192.4 billion against $75.7 billion a year earlier.
The surplus of the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January-July amounted to $166.6 billion against $50.2 billion a year earlier - the Central Bank.
The surplus of the balance of payments in the first half of the year increased 3.5 times to $138 billion
The surplus of the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in the first half of the year increased 3.5 times, to $138.5 billion.
The surplus of the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January-April increased 3.5 times to $95.8 billion
For the same period in 2021, the balance amounted to + $27.5 billion. This is the assessment of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation on the Bank of Russia website.
The dynamics of the current account of the balance of payments was determined by the expansion of the positive balance of goods and services against the background of lower imports.
The surplus of foreign trade in goods and services of the Russian Federation in the first four months of 2022 increased 3 times, to $106.5 billion compared to $35.2 billion for the same period in 2021.
The total deficit of the remaining components of the current account of the balance of payments increased due to the paid investment income by other sectors. In the financial balance of payments account, asset growth exceeded liability growth.
The negative balance of the balance of primary and secondary income in January-April 2022 increased to $10.7 billion, which is 1.4 times more than in the same period in 2021, when it amounted to $7.6 billion.
2021: Russia's foreign trade surplus grew 1.9 times, to $197.3 billion
The surplus of foreign trade Russia in 2021 increased 1.9 times compared to 2020 and amounted to $197.3 billion. We are talking about the so-called trade surplus, the Federal Customs Service reported on February 7, 2022. FCS
According to published statistics, in January-December 2021, Russia's foreign trade turnover amounted to $789.4 billion, which is 37.9% higher than a year ago, while in 2020 there was a 15.2% decline. Exports, more than half of which (54.3%) fell on energy resources, in 2021 amounted to $493.3 billion (+ 45.7% by 2020), imports of goods - $296.1 billion (+ 26.5%).
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the foreign trade surplus in 2021 almost doubled, amounting to $185.9 billion against $93.7 billion in 2020.
Imports Russia in January-December 2021 amounted to $296.1 billion USA and increased by 26.5% compared to January-December 2020. The share of non-CIS countries accounted for 89.3%, the CIS countries - 10.7%.
The record growth in exports is almost entirely due to the greatly increased prices for raw materials. According to the FCS, despite the fact that in dollars the volume of exported fuel and energy goods increased by 59.5%, their physical volume remained at the level of 2020.
In the commodity structure of imports, the largest share was in 2021 for machinery and equipment - 49.2% (in 2020 - 47.6%). The cost of importing these products compared to 2020 increased by 30.8%, including mechanical equipment - by 25.9%, electrical equipment - by 21.8%, instruments and optical devices - by 6.9%. The physical volume of imports of cars and trucks increased by 1.4 times.[3]
2020: Trade surplus shrinks 41.4% to $104.5 billion
According to customs statistics, in January-December 2020, Russia's foreign trade turnover amounted to $571.9 billion and decreased by 15.2% compared to January-December 2019.
The volume of exports decreased by 20.7% to $338.2 billion, imports - by 5.7% to $233.7 billion.
The trade balance was positive in the amount of $104.5 billion, which is $73.9 billion less (-41.4%) than in January-December 2019.
Russia's exports in January-December 2020 amounted to $338.2 billion and decreased by 20.7% compared to January-December 2019. To share non-CIS countries accounted for 85.6%, the CIS countries - 14.4%.
The basis of Russian exports in January-December 2020 was traditionally fuel and energy goods, the share of which in the commodity structure of exports amounted to 49.6% (in January-December 2019 - 62.1%). In the commodity structure of exports to non-CIS countries, the share of these goods amounted to 53.8% (in January-December 2019 - 66.9%), to the CIS countries - 24.8% (28.8%). Compared to January-December 2019, the value of exports of fuel and energy goods decreased by 36.6%, and physical - by 6%.
In the commodity structure of imports, the largest share was accounted for by machinery and equipment - 47.6% (in January-December 2019 - 46.1%).
The decrease in the volume of import of medicines is the result of the successful replacement of imported drugs with domestic analogues and an increase in production at factories opened by international pharmaceutical companies in Russia.
2015: $145.6 billion (-23%) surplus
In 2015, according to preliminary data (January 2016), Russia's foreign trade surplus decreased by 23.2% to $145.6 billion against $189.7 billion in 2014, the Bank of Russia reports.
Exports from Russia amounted to $339.6 billion (-31.8%) in 2015 against $497.8 billion in 2014, imports - $194 billion (-37%) against $308 billion in 2014[4]
In general, the volume of foreign trade in Russia decreased in 2015 by 33.8% to $533.6 billion (in 2014 - $805.8 billion, in 2013 - $864.6 billion).
Exports in the IV quarter of 2015 increased by 2.6% (sq./Sq.) To $80.4 billion against $78.4 billion in the III quarter, imports - by 1.8% to $51 billion ($50.1 billion). As a result, the foreign trade surplus reached $29.5 billion (+ 4.2%) in the IV quarter against $28.3 billion in the III quarter.
"The contraction of the trade balance occurred under the influence of falling energy prices against the background of a significant narrowing of domestic demand for imports," the Central Bank emphasizes.
Notes
- ↑ With which countries Russia has the largest trade surplus. Infographics
- ↑ Central Bank: the surplus of the balance of payments account reached a record $227.4 billion in 2022
- ↑ Russia's foreign trade surplus in 2021 increased 1.9 times
- ↑ The foreign trade surplus of the Russian Federation fell in 2015 by 23.2%.
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