Main article: US stock market
2024
Bank forecasts have not come true for many years
The chart below shows the actual yield of the S&P 500 and the forecast from the leading banks for the beginning of each year since 2015. As you can see, the discrepancy between the forecast and the fact is extremely noticeable, this is especially noticeable over the past 3 years.
The index exceeded 5,000 points for the first time. The top ten account for a record 32%
On Feb. 9, 2024, the S&P 500 topped 5,000 amid a renewed rally in the tech sector and hopes that the Fed could soon cut rates, boosting the outlook for corporate profits.
The top ten holdings in the S&P 500 now account for more than 32% of the index - the highest concentration seen since 1980.
The top 5 stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon account for 25% of the S&P 500's market value.
2023: Growth in IT paper demand due to neural network boom
Most of the growth in the S & P500 for the first half of 2023 is the rise in the price of shares of IT companies. For the first half of 2023, the main American stock index - S & P500 - rose more than 16%. It would seem that the economy is growing and everything is fine? Not quite so, because if you throw tech companies out of the index, the growth will be a modest 3.7%.
And some (important) sectors are in the red: for example, healthcare and power lost 1.9% each. So this is rather not economic growth, but a boom around neural networks, which has switched to the stock market.
2022
Down 20% by early October
Index's biggest first-half drop since 1970
As of June 21, 2022, the S&P 500 did not have such a bad first half of the year since the era of US President Nixon.
The S&P 500 declined, taking its losses in the three months of 2022 to nearly 5%, its most significant since March 2020.
2021
P/E ratio of top 10 S&P 500 stocks at dot-com bubble
By the end of 2021, the P/E ratio (price/earnings) of the top 10 S&P 500 stocks is near what marked the collapse of the dot-com bubble two decades ago.
High valuations combined with potential bond yield gains and the risk of slowing growth make stocks more vulnerable to correction.
And with the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 accounting for nearly a third of the index's total weight, any retreat by those giants could send the entire market tumbling.
Stocks with the best performance in the S&P 500 in 30 years and a string of records
On August 30, 2021, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high for the 53rd time this year. It was reported that if this pace persists before the end of the year, it will surpass the 1995 record - 77 times.
By November 2021, the S&P 500 had risen 37% since Biden was elected president of the United States a year ago, setting a presidential record.
According to Charles Schwab UK, the growth in the index for the year was mainly due to the "rally of everything" after the spread of the COVID-19 vaccine than with any specific political decision.
2020: Collapse of capitalization by a third in 33 days amid the COVID-19 pandemic
February 2020 - March 2020 (33 days) - a rapid cutting of a third from capitalization, but 2020 had a very interesting feature. This is the fastest disposal in US history over 1/3 of capitalization amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the fastest recovery.
2019: Record-breaking bull market. S & P500 Index Dynamics
For December 2019, there is the longest bull market in history without a significant correction.
2009: Most crushing collapse since 1930 by 56.8% in 517 days
October 2007 - March 2009 (517 days, although the main trigger was from September 2008 and took six months) - the most crushing collapse since 1930 by 56.8%.
2002: Prolonged fall after dot-com bubble by 49.1%
March 2000 - September 2002 (929 days) - a protracted fall after the dot-com bubble by 49.1%.
1987: High-speed crash 33.5% in 101 days
August 1987 - December 1987 (101 days) - a high-speed crash by 33.5%.
1982: Down 27% in 622 days
November 1980 - August 1982 (622 days) - a decrease of 27%.
1974: 48.2% collapse
January 1973 - October 1974 (530 days) - a collapse of 48.2%.
See also
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) - stock index on the 30 largest companies USA
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