The analysis of threats of crisis situations in a state administration

As a rule, systems created for solving of tasks of monitoring, the analysis and forecasting of development of situations carry the name of information and analytical systems and provide activity of the Situational centers of the management of the region.

Purposes and tasks of the regional Situational centers

Main objective of creation of the Situational center in the region is increase in efficiency and quality of management decisions, prevention and elimination crisis and emergencies. On the basis of the Situational center information and analytical support of the procedures and processes allowing to analyze, model and predict quickly scenarios of development of the situation can be provided and to dynamically develop effective solutions.

The situational center represents a software and hardware complex which part are:

• hardware (workstations, servers, recording devices and information storages, display and interactive means, data protection hardware);
• telecommunication providing (local and global networks, communication channels);
• information support (standards, regulations, techniques, regulating documents; information sources which data are processed in the Situational center);
• software of support of management decisions (systems of collecting and information storage, structuring and processing, analysis and forecasting, preparation for visualization, software tools of data protection).

Within a complex of the Situational center creation of the information and analytical block intended for achievement of the following purposes is provided:

• timely complex informing the Russian President, Plenipotentiary of the Russian President in the federal district and the head of ROGV (further the Governor) about a situation in the region for the purpose of acceptance of operational management decisions;
• monitoring, the complex analysis and development evaluation of a situation in the region in the field of the social and economic and social and political processes represented by federal public authorities and regional authorities;
• information and analytical support of activity of the Governor and Administration of ROGV for the solution of operational and strategic tasks of management of social and economic, social and political, administrative and other processes;
• increase in efficiency of the made decisions ROGV;
• monitoring of an operational situation in the field of public security and emergencies in the region, including in terms of space information;
• monitoring of current status of the objects which are on control of the Government of the region and control of execution of plans of work;
• analysis of social and economic development of municipal entities of the region.

Brief summary of problems of monitoring and analysis

In general, in problems of monitoring and the analysis it is possible to select the following components:

• collecting of objective and subjective state-of-health data of objects, subjects, processes;
• determination of actual state in a complex;
• identification of trends and dynamics of changes;
• identification of problem spheres and pacing contributing factors.

At the same time methods of carrying out monitoring are various and their application depends on the studied field of activity or the analyzed direction (for example, the social and economic sphere or rates of accomplishment of construction works) and the accepted techniques of the subsequent analysis:

• obtaining primary data from information systems;
• obtaining statistical information;
• holding sociological polls;
• remote sensing of the earth;
• laser scanning, photographing;
• monitoring of media.

At the subsequent carrying out the analysis by controlled parameters different methods are also used, for example:

• comparison with target indicators (plan/fact);
• analysis of the direction and dynamics of changes;
• comparison with a retrospective status or dynamics;
• formation of the aggregated indicators and ranging of the calculated values.

Considering variety of fields of activity on which the management of the region should make the decision on the choice of managing directors and the adjusting influences, it is reasonable to operate for support of this management process with a single system of monitoring and the analysis which would provide the flexible mechanisms configured under the regional tasks changed during time.

The approaches applied to assessment of the situation in the region

Current situation in the region can be assessed from three parties: from a position of administration of the region, from a position of perception by its population of the region and from a position of actual state which, in turn, can be determined by at once several instruments of monitoring.

From each party of estimation of a situation the initial data and the methods of their assessment should be used, region status lights in certain spheres, for example, normal, pre-crisis and crisis state should become result of estimation. Discrepancies in estimates of a status of spheres in the region is a peculiar "litmus" piece of paper, revealing the most burning issues in the region.

Figure 1. The making assessments of the situation in the region

For assessment from each party the data sets, the sources and methods of obtaining information should be used. So, for assessment of "perception by the authorities" of a situation in the region the system of the state statistics and indicators collected in the different ministries and departments should be used. For assessment of perception of a situation by the population it is necessary to use methods of questioning and sociological polls. For assessment of the actual situation in the region registers of citizens' appeals in operational services, administrations, the multifunction centers, including for receiving non-financial services can be analyzed, and permanent monitoring of the prices of the main goods, services, utility tariffs (direct monitoring) can be also carried out.

In case of carrying out the complex analysis for assessment of actual state also such materials as the given remote sensing of Earth, space data (arrangement of objects, reliefs and so forth), online images of video cameras and so forth can be used.

Figure 2. Information sources for assessment of the situation in the region

The most widespread method of the analysis for region status assessment (areas / municipal entities) is the indicative analysis. The indicative analysis is carried out using the complex indicators which are under construction based on the indicators characterizing the specific sphere. The Complex Indicator (CI) represents the aggregation of primary indicators or other KI which is based based on one of mathematical models: polynomial, matrix, mark.

For the analysis of a situation in the region and evaluating a status of regions/areas / municipal entities measure values across territories with the subsequent calculation and submission of the accompanying information by areas are used.

Information and analytical block of the Situational center

For achievement of goals, put when implementing the information and analytical block of the Situational center, and also for ensuring required flexibility at the solution of regional tasks, creation and implementation of automated information system providing is supposed:

• strategic planning for ensuring sustainable development of the Russian Federation and ensuring national security;
• management of programs and projects due to monitoring of target parameters and indicators and their indicative representation;
• complex monitoring of a social and economic situation and forecasting of its options of development;

the analysis of social security of the population in the region;

• monitoring and analysis of a social and political situation;
• monitoring of an ecological situation and natural and technogenic security in the region;
• complex assessment of a status of the region, including efficiency analysis of activity of executive authorities of the subject of the Russian Federation and local government authorities, quality evaluation of providing public services;
• complex monitoring of actual state of territories/woods/arable lands/objects of capital construction and so forth;
• flexible configuration of monitors and the analysis for the collecting and data processing on other tasks and the directions which are relevant for the specific region.

In practice adaptivity of a system means a possibility of expansion of structure of the indicators and data sources which are subject to monitoring; setup of different mathematical models based on which processing of indicators is executed in the analysis and forecasting of provision in the region; a possibility of comparison of the received results of processing among themselves (for example, to compare results of processing of statistics and sociological polls); comparison of results of processing with the given the last periods and target indicators; representation of calculation results in a complex with the additional information (GIS, media, expert opinions, etc.).

In fact, the information and analytical system should represent the tool using which setup of a system under operational and strategic problems of the region is performed. The main users of such tool, in terms of data preparation for decision making, the specialists who are engaged in detection and the analysis of social and economic, social and political and technogenic threats and crisis situations are. For this user group a system should be the configured designer adapted for assigned tasks.

So-called end users of a system are the persons making decisions for which the clear interface allowing to create a dashboard on which various information is placed should be provided. To avoid overload of a panel information, means of detailing of information on a request, besides with the publication of data in intuitive representations should be provided.

Relying on the stated requirements, the NEOLANT company executes development of the complete solution for support of management of the region which part three components are:

• the software package of information and analytical support of management of the region (IAPUR PC) intended for analytical processing of primary data and complex submission of diverse information;
• geographic information system of decision support (GIS of the Party of Pensioners of Russia) providing an ability to manage with submission of analytical data in the environment of GIS;
• the regional geoportal providing exchange of space data between departments and citizens.

Figure 3. The scheme of the complete solution for support of management of the region

Information and analytical support of management of the region

The complex is intended for collecting, accumulation, storage and the analysis of the diverse materials arriving from different sources:

• Expert evaluations
• Sociological polls
• Materials of media
• Statistical data
• Data on citizens' appeals in the monitoring/dispatching centers and IOGV
• Space data
• The Earth/pictures given remote sensing, etc.

Processing of numeric data (statistics, aggregated data on sociological polls, citizens' appeals) is executed using the information model of monitoring of threats and crisis situations containing:

• the customized system of indicators and the frequency of their monitoring organized based on hierarchical qualifiers;

Figure 4. Example of structure of qualifiers

• information sources (databases, funds, information systems, including databases text and sociological information), necessary for use in a subsystem;

Figure 5. Example of communication of the qualifier of semantic information with information sources

• access facilities to information and their integration in the working database of a subsystem.

The system of indicators of threats and crisis situations in economy, social and political spheres, in turn, includes:

• the list of primary indicators for which characteristic "positive/negative" is defined;
• algorithms of calculations of the complex indicators configured using visual designers based on mathematical models using indicators;
• the scale of ranges of possible values on each complex indicator allowing to correlate the calculated value to expert evaluations of a situation (for example, satisfactory/intense / crisis);
• the list of external and internal threats in a triad "sources of threats – possible threats – possible effects", created by specialists experts.

Based on processing:

• development of crisis situations is predicted;
• possible effects of development of crisis situations are defined;
• options of permission of crisis situations (prevention, mitigation or impossibility of permission) form.

In the analysis of complex indicators, especially in case of identification of premises of development of a crisis situation, it is extremely important to understand what indicators most influence similar negative trends to undertake target, point influence in the specific direction. For the solution of this task tools using which dynamics of change of the separate monitoring characteristics which are a part and used when calculating the complex indicator, and identification of extent of influence of all characteristics on an indicator value is defined are used.

Figure 6. Transition from the complex indicator to the being indicators

In addition, in a system the possibility of imposing of the indicators received as a result of processing of statistical information, results of processing of answers of sociological researches and these monitoring systems of citizens' appeals is implemented. Similar comparison allows to reveal gaps between perception of a situation (the authorities, the population, the actual situation) which can become one more source of the analysis. For example, positive trends of the indicator constructed on statistics along with results of sociological polls of the population, can reveal need for holding the information campaigns for the region explaining strategic plans of the management of the region.

When developing the similar algorithms of calculation of the indicator (providing comparison of data on several directions – statistics/monitoring / sots. polls) it is necessary to consider need of reduction of results to proportional units.

The result of comparison of dynamics of change of indicators of the area and municipal entity or region and area which can reveal difference in rates or the directions of changes can be one more source of reflections.

As decision making process is based on the analysis of complex information which volume is rather big, in addition to aggregated (integrated data) in a system the different visualization tools allowing to inform of results of processing to the person making the decision in a graphic type are implemented.

Graphic representations, such, as:

• display of crisis situations on a cartographic background or skeleton maps;
• formation of the digital dashboards characterizing integrated assessment of threats and crisis situations;
• information representation in the form of cartograms and diagrammatic charts with the displayed problem information, diagrams, tables, texts.
• are supplemented with representation of directory materials in the different information cuts published on demand.

Figure 7. A skeleton map coloring according to the calculated indicator values

Figure 8. Complex information representation, comparison of indicators across the selected territories and distribution by a scale of ranges

Figure 9. Integration of a software package with a geographic information system

Conclusion

Need of an information and analytical component as a part of the Situational center does not raise doubts at most of the specialists providing data preparation for acceptance of management decisions now.

At the same time both at data preparation, and at decision making it is necessary to face a big information stream as the structure of the indicators arriving from different industry and departmental structures is big, being defined by different normative and organizational acts. And this flow constantly changes, and towards expansion as solvable tasks and reality change.

Considering a complexity threshold in the conclusions of the person according to whom an adequate assessment can be given to an event, in an information and analytical system the integrated (generalized) indicators should be used. However at the same time it is required to provide operational transition to interpretation of the received integrated indicator for identification of the key influencing primary indicators.

Integrated indicators can be used further as criteria of achievement of goals of management of the region and for determination of the key directions of improvement of a social and economic situation in the region (in an implementable complex the same ideology – collection of information and receiving indicators, calculation on their base of integrated indicators which already and are presented to the analyst for preparation solutions is put). The technique of assessment of integrated indicators should be developed taking into account specifics of the region and the industry and to be checked on the example of results for the set period. Development of similar indicators should be followed by determination of target values with which comparison of the received results will be executed. At the same time development of a technique of assessment should be followed by study of regulations of monitoring in the course of which collecting of indicators on different data sources will be executed. The regulations should determine the frequency of collection of information for different sources and preprocessing options.

Now in the majority of regions the Situational centers are already created, some – as the telecommunication centers, others – as complexes in which the information and analytical block is provided. But even those regions at which the analytics is already implemented in this or that type in the Situational center are constantly involved in process of upgrade of this component for solving of tasks, put the Government of the Russian Federation and regional administration. With respect thereto, creation of a system in which on the one hand requirements imposed at the moment from the federal and regional authorities are considered and with having work benches for setup of key parameters of other system (indicators, methods and models of assessment, the reporting, visualization methods), is a relevant task. Extremely important point is the possibility of application of the techniques approved top-level managements that will provide unity and unification of methodological approaches of level of the region, district, country.