Evolution of cloud computing will last till 2015

According to analysts of Gartner [1] (file), the market of cloud computing is on rise, however several years that technologies of cloud computing became a real basis of applied information systems are necessary. For designation of such "symbiosis" of technologies experts of Gartner use  the term Service-Enabled Application Platforms (SEAP). According to Mark Drayver (Mark Driver), the vice president of company Gartner, SEAP is the base for creation of solutions SaaS. It is possible to select three absolutely accurate, only a little crossed a stage of evolution cloud computing.

Stage 1. Pervoprokhodotsa and innovators (2007-2011). At this stage substantially there is market development. Till 2011 Gartner recommends to developers to focus on short-term, tactical targets and achievements.  Speed of creation and an output to the market of new products can even go  to damage to their long-term technology perspectives. Return from investments at this stage  should not exceed  18-24 months (though some exceptions are possible).

Meanwhile, a part of the companies having, long-term "vision" of the market will pay bigger attention to technology advantages of the solutions, but not speeds of return of investments. Such companies will manage to create  positive reputation among adherents of new technologies. Most likely, they  will focus attention  on creation of tools for bytry development and deployment of cloud applicaions that will make their solutions especially attractive to clients.

Stage 2.  Consolidation of the market (2010-2013).  By 2012 the market will be crowded, oversaturated. On it  the broad spectrum of solutions both from large, and from smaller developers will be provided. As a result fierce competition will force many weak players  out from  the market that will become a push for series of absorption  of small businesses by larger developers.

At this stage of technology of cloud computing will become  very attractive for a wide range of potential users. Rather powerful and conservative customer base for which reliability and stability of work will be not less important factor, than technical innovation will as a result be created. Such  investments are already beyond short-term, tactical, and are regarded as strategic projects. Terms of return of investments  will be expanded and will be from three to five years.

It is expected  that by 2013  many companies anxious with creation of architecturally simple solutions will give to SEAP technologies preference, and such projects will be regarded by them as  system.  

Stage 3.  Accumulation of critical mass (2012-2015). In 2013 in the market   a small amount of large suppliers whose solutions  "de facto" will become the conventional market standard will dominate. These developers will use the technologies developed by them within the previous five years  but also  will work on creation of the "intra cloud" interfaces allowing to connect their products with solutions of other vendors.

Among users of cloud computing the focus will even more be shifted from interest in innovation of solutions in estimates of their stability, reliability and payback.

The competition between commercial (proprietary) and open-cast cloud minings will amplify, and as a result by  2014 common efforts will create a complete stack of open SEAP technologies. By 2015 the share of public market of SEAP will begin to grow gradually. 

As for influence of cloud computing on the market of ERP, according to earlier forecasts of Gartner, by 2011 the cumulative share of the applications provided according to the SaaS model will make   only 16.7% of total market of ERP.