Forecast.CCB

To participating banks of the deposit insurance system (DIS) - from the regulator, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, strict requirements on ensuring economic stability and financial stability are imposed. With respect thereto, for bank relevant are a permanent monitoring and control of own indicators of financial stability on compliance to criteria of admission in SSV.

Use of the Forecast.CCB software product will allow to solve this problem effectively. The product is created by Forecast on the basis of the similar system developed by the company for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Measure calculation of financial stability, determination of the generalizing result and classification group is made according to the techniques stated in the Instruction of the Bank of Russia No. 1379-U of 1/16/2004 "About assessment of financial stability of bank for the purpose of recognition its sufficient for participation in deposit insurance system", the Instruction of the Bank of Russia No. 2005-U of 4/30/2008 "About assessment of an economic situation of banks" and also the additional methodical recommendations of the Bank of Russia.

A system is full-function tools of automation of calculation, the analysis and forecasting of indicators of financial stability, assessment of an economic situation of bank, obligatory standards and some other indicators of activity of credit institution.

The main objectives solved by means of a system:

• monitoring of compliance of indicators of financial stability of bank to conditions of access to deposit insurance system and estimates of an economic situation of bank (according to instructions 1379-U i 2005-U)
• loading of initial data in forms of the obligatory bank reporting, in standard formats (KLIKO, PTK PSD)
• manual entry and adjustment of data on reporting forms
• measure calculation of the aggregated balance and the profit and loss statement of form 806, 807)
• measure calculation of financial stability of bank
• calculation of classification group of bank
• data entry and measure calculation of transparency of structure of property of bank and quality of management
• formation and viewing the analytical reports containing information on criteria of compliance of banks to conditions of admission in SSV and about classification group of bank
• forecasting of measure values of financial stability, assessment of an economic situation and accomplishment of obligatory standards of bank
• assessment of the main bank risks on the basis of the analysis of standards and their components
• formation of information on key indicators of activity of bank and submission of analytical information to the management
• stress testing: loss assessment and a financial status of bank after influence of macroeconomic stressful events

Advantages of a system:

• basis of a system is software, developed by the company for the Bank of Russia that provides identity of algorithms and results of calculation
• a system is timely updated with a release of new regulating documents and methodical instructions of the Bank of Russia
• effective tool of the analysis and forecasting of indicators of financial stability
• simplicity and convenience of the interface will allow to master work with a system in the shortest possible time
• means of the OLAP navigator allow to carry out operational data analysis in a tabular and graphic style
• interpretation and transparency of all algorithms allows to trace the sequence of calculation from initial data to result at any moment
• quality improvement of information support due to operational preparation of documents with the required detail level for specialists and the management
• the developed system of technical support helps to resolve quickly arising issues and to timely get access to updates of a System

The module "Stress testing" as a part of version 3.2.8 of the Forecast.CCB system

Due to the increased relevance of the analysis of effects of the crisis phenomena the central banks and world bank regulators pay close attention to questions of the organization and conducting stress testing both at the level of separate financial credit institutions, and at the level of a banking system in general. Bank of Russia, considering the recommendations of international financial institutions in the supervising activity, regularly collects reports on conducting internal stress testing of banks of the country. The solution of similar tasks is impossible without application of model and work benches which are provided by the Forecast.CCB system.

The module of stress testing allows to estimate losses and a financial condition of bank in case of influence of some stressful events. At the heart of new functionality – the simulation balance sheet model of bank intended for determination of capability of credit institution to resist to the set crisis events. When implementing the module experience of joint works of Prognoz company with the Bank of Russia in the field of stress testing of a banking system was used.

The detailed description and example of use of the module are provided in the reference which is built in a system. In plans of the company – significant development of functionality of the module of stress testing, including taking into account responses and wishes of users.

The Prognoz company released in the fall of 2013 version 3.3.8 of the Forecast.CCB system in it algorithms of calculation of indicator No. 8 according to annex 1 to the Letter of the Bank of Russia No. 69-T "About urgent measures of rapid supervising response" are updated. Besides, in program it is blown some more corrections and improvements are entered.