GoodsForecast.Promo

The solution GoodsForecast.Promo allows to analyze efficiency of promo-activities and marketing actions of a similar type in the history and to create effect assessment for the planned promotion action. A system estimates effect of an action (scope change of sales at an action in relation to what sales would be if the action was not) by identification of correlations between different parameters of an action and dynamics of demand.

2020: Functionality of a system for efficiency evaluation of marketing actions

• Calculations of the recommended and actual effects
  • The algorithm of the GoodsForecast.Promo system is intended for calculation of basic level of the sales (expected without activation) both for last, and for the forthcoming promotion actions. The algorithm works in different cuts (SKU, the client, geography, a format). Input parameters are the history of secondary sales, the period of shipments for calculation of basic level, history of all actions held, a marking of an exception of days of shipments by the user, seasonal coefficients for pair SKU Geography. At the exit a system provides to the user data on the actual / planned shift in demand owing to a promotion action.

• Settings of calculations of the recommended effects and basic levels
  • The algorithm of a system calculates the expected efficiency of a promotion action on the basis of the analysis of similar actions in the past. Input parameters: the period and mechanics of the analyzed action, the calculated planned basic level of the analyzed action, history of all actions held, their basic levels and gains, seasonal coefficients for pair SKU Geography. Output parameters: the calculated activation gain in piece and percent, the list of the found analogs and their weight.

• An opportunity to set the planned effect for an action in general and for separate combinations the Location – Goods
  • The user of a system can set the aggregated planned effect for an action in general (for the operating and planned aktivation) and also to set the three (Geography, SKU, the Client) for the analysis and correction of history by means of the filter by parameters: activation, goods, geography, client. Besides, in a system an opportunity to set any level of a location for a specific action is implemented.

• An opportunity to set daily profiles of the planned actions
  • The user of a system automatically receives detailing of secondary sales (the producer or the distributor to retail chain stores) under an action on days, taking into account characteristic dynamics of sales under an action and week seasonality. The received detailing can be adjusted as by separate activation, and analyzing and adjusting the expected daily sales for a set of SKU, clients, regions and the set period.

• Tools of the analysis and correction of the recommended effects
  • The form of editing an action intended for the analysis of automatic calculation of an action and introduction of expert evaluation, creation of the draft copy of an action for the purpose of an experiment and the analysis of calculations of a system and also creation of the diagram of shipments is available to the user of a system. A system calculates the recommended effect for the three (Geography, SKU, the Client) in promotional period. On the created three the user can calculate the actual and planned basic levels. Besides, the possibility of viewing different types of effect is implemented: absolute (the total volume of secondary sales in promotional period), additive (sales increase in promotional period, in gave), multiplicative (sales increase in promotional period, in %).

• Tools of the analysis and correction of basic level
  • In the system interface the user can manage all parameters of calculation of effects of actions: calculation of the actual and future basic levels and forecast of gains. Management of settings is available as it is point (for certain clients, regions, SKU and mechanics), and using flexible group transactions (determining uniform parameters of calculation for a great number of clients, SKU, regions and mechanics).

• Reporting under accuracy and timeliness of forecasting
  • In the magazine of actions the user has an opportunity to timely obtain up-to-date information about forecasting accuracy at once after the end of action of an action. Forecasting accuracy reflects compliance percent between the predicted and actual effect of an action.