IT (world market)

What the IT market consists of

The world market of information technologies includes several main segments, in the knowledge base of TAdviser the separate article is devoted to each of which:

• IT services (world market)
• Software (world market)
• Computer equipment (world market)
• Communication equipment (world market)
• Trends of world IT market

Often IT include in wider concept - infocommunication technologies (ICT) which integrates in itself information technologies and communication services.

Here is how the Forrester Research company considers structure of the world market of ICT.

The forecast (2016) of sales in the world market of ICT in 2017 on segments, one billion dollars.

2018

the Largest IT budgets of the world: top-10 business customers

On January 17, 2019 the companies with the greatest expenses on information technologies (the equipment, the software, services) for previous year became known. Data provided to the The Wall Street Journal newspaper analysts of International Data Corp. (IDC).

The leader in IT budgets at the end of 2018 became Amazon with result in $13.6 billion. Entered into top three Alphabet holding, parent for Google, and retailer Walmart with close technology costs — at the level of $12 billion.

On the fourth place in the rating of the companies which more than others spend for IT the financial holding JPMorgan Chase with expenses in the amount of $9.2 billion in 2018 was located. Approximately the same indicator is registered at Microsoft. In Bank of America annual IT costs were measured by $8.4 billion, in Facebook — $7.9 billion, in AT&T — $7 billion, in Wells Fargo and Citigroup — for $6.6 billion.

According to the analyst of IDC David Lantsman, the most part of IT expenses of Amazon and Google as the companies sell cloud services to corporate clients who thanks to these products try to reduce the IT budgets fell on servers and other infrastructure for data centers.

The research IDC covered in total 4800 companies at which total expenses on IT in 2018 reached $1.1 trillion. The share of the top ten made 7%,

Walmart, the only retailer in top-10 the companies with the largest IT expenses, spends for technologies for improvement of the supply channel, e-commerce and logistics services much, the executive vice president and the technical director of the American retail network Jeremy King at the National Retail Federation conference in New York in January, 2019 told.

According to King, the IT budget of Walmart estimated by IDC includes in $11.7 billion expenses on manual technologies, registers and robots. The company intends to spend even more in 2019 as it expands implementation of robots in warehouses and in shops, integrates them with management systems for product inventories, etc.

Jeremy King reported that in 2018 Walmart increased the team of IT specialists by 1700 people and is going to add to it 2000 more employees in the 2019th.

We quickly increase investments into technologies — he told.

The growing cloud business of Amazon requires permanent increase in servers, David Lanzmann says.

They spend a lot of money for creation of these computing platforms worldwide — the expert added.

As it is possible to see higher in the chart, ten the companies leading on IT expenses at the end of 2018 included four banks. Lanzmann explains such situation with need of credit institutions to invest in cyber security and instruments of Internet banking.

According to preliminary estimates IDC, the volume of world IT market in 2018 reached $4 trillion, having increased by 4.2% in comparison with the 2017th. At the end of 2019 3 percent recession because of the problems in economy connected with increase in duties on commodity importation, the increase in interest rates of the U.S. Federal Reserve which is slowed down by growth of the Chinese market and end of a cycle of a capital expenditure in the companies is predicted.

By 2022 global IT expenses will exceed $4.5 trillion, and the highest growth will be shown by the services and the software concerning the so-called third platform (cloud computing, mobile technologies, Big Data, analytics and social services) and projects of digital transformation. Cloud providers and their investments into infrastructure of data centers will become the main drayer of a segment of the IT equipment.^[1]

Growth of IT market accelerates at the expense of the corporate software — Gartner

On October 17, 2018 the Gartner analytical company submitted the specified forecast for world IT market. Experts expect that expenses on information technologies on a global scale at the end of 2018 will reach $3.7 trillion, having increased by 4.5% concerning the 2017th. In January researchers predicted costs at the level of $3.68 trillion and the same growth by 4.5%. In 2017 the market added 3.9%.

Though volatility of currency and potential trade wars still affect the forecast for IT expenses, this alarm in expectations on each segment causes transition from model of ownership of IT solutions to gaining access to them in service quality — the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock says. — It means, for example, the fact that more and more companies use cloud services — instead of purchase of servers they prefer clouds. In the conditions of the continuing digital transformation of business migration on the model "pay for what you use" will remain. It allows the organizations to resist to continuous and fast changes on which the emphasis in their digital business is placed.

According to analysts, the corporate software which sales will grow approximately by 10% became the main driver of growth of world IT market in 2018. The SaaS model (providing software in service quality) stimulates growth almost in all software segments, especially in CRM as here attention is paid to improvement of work with clients. It is expected that in 2018 expenses on cloud services will rise by 22% whereas sales of the traditional software installed on computers of clients increase only by 6%.

The most part of demand in dollar expression in the market of corporate software is the share of the solutions ERP, CRM and products for supply chain management, however in 2018 a particular interest was attracted by technologies to information security support and confidentiality. 88% of the polled Gartner of Chief information officers unrolled or are going to implement cybersecurity solutions or other similar technologies within 12 months.

The second place on dynamics of growth after the corporate software will be taken by a segment of systems for data centers which volume in 2018 will rise by 6%, to $192 billion. Servers which sales will increase by 5.7% will become the main catalyst of such rise.^[2]

Annual global costs on IT services approach $1 trillion. In 2017 it was talked of the amount of $931 billion, and in the 2018th $987 billion, i.e. growth by 5.9% are expected. Against the background of macroeconomic recession and the general pressure upon budgets of the companies they optimize expenses on third-party business services, such as consulting. The research Gartner showed that for 46% of the organizations IT services and consolidation of service providers are included into the three of the most effective, according to them, optimization methods of expenses.

According to expectations of specialists, in 2018 $689 billion will be spent for acquisition of computers, tablets and mobile phones in the world in total that is 3.6% more, than the previous year. In 2018 in the corporate sector there was very strong demand for new computers in connection with transition of business to the Windows 10 operating system. This cycle should last till 2020, analysts are sure.

The PC, notebooks and tablets reached new equilibrium state. In these markets stable demand from consumers is observed and the enterprises. Producers have hardly distinguishable differentiation of technologies which induces them to offer the PC as service (PCaaS) to hold clients for receiving the long-term repeating income and to offer new convergent services — Lavlok told.

2017

Expenses of the companies on digital transformation in $958 billion are IDC

In 2017 expenses of the companies on the digital transformation (DT) on a global scale made $958 billion, counted in International Data Corporation (IDC) research company.

According to forecasts of analysts, in 2018 world costs for the technologies and services providing digital conversions of business practices, products and the organizations will exceed $1.1 trillion.

The most part of the considered investments are the share of a manufacturing sector which besides defines the ideas for many TsT-priorities, programs and scenarios of use.

The research manager at IDC Craig Simpson says that strategically priority areas of digital transformation with the small expense level creation of cognitive opportunities, services and advantages using data are among, trust to digital technologies and control.

It means that many companies still are at early stages of the way to digital transformation, at the same time they are concentrated on improvement of the internal existing processes and efficiency. In process of transition to new stages of development we expect to see such priorities and expenses, migration for digital information for further improvement of transactions and creation of new products and services — Simpson noted.

According to experts, each company should develop the programs representing the long-term plan on accomplishment of effective objectives for implementation of the strategic TsT-priorities. It is expected that in 2018 the greatest financing will be received by TsT-programs in the field of digital channels of deliveries and automation of logistic transactions ($93 billion), "smart" asset management ($91 billion) and production operations ($40 billion). The greatest expense dynamics during the period till 2021 is predicted in the market of construction works (growth approximately for 38.4% a year).^[3]

Market size in $3.5 trillion is Gartner

In January, 2018 from the report of Gartner analytical company it became known that world expenses on the information technologies (IT) in 2017 increased by 3.8% and exceeded $3.5 trillion.

Growth of world IT costs in 2017 was observed in all directions, but the greatest increase experts registered the corporate software where expenses increased by 8.9% in category, having reached $355 billion.

Devices where progress is recorded for the first time in the last two years became one more caused a stir segment. In the 2017th $667 billion were spent for purchase of computers, smartphones and other devices that is 5.7% more in comparison with the 2016th. As well as believed in Gartner, influence of the new iPhone 8 and iPhone X smartphones on global market of IT last year was minimum.

Traditionally, communication services of which in 2017 it was the share about $1.39 trillion were the most extensive IT category in terms of costs. IT services ($933 billion) were the second most important direction, and the most modest expenses are registered in a segment of the equipment for DPC ($178 billion)

In 2017 global IT investments began to be recovered, and we predict further growth in the following several years. At the same time, in the industry the atmosphere of uncertainty because of possible effects of an exit of Great Britain from the EU, currency fluctuations and global recession remains — the vice president of Gartner for researches John-David Lovelock warned.

Despite foggy perspectives in the market, specialists believe that to continue to invest the enterprises and the organization in IT. Among the directions acting as drivers of growth in Gartner listed the projects connected with digital business, blockchain technologies, Internet of Things, use of Big Data, machine learning and artificial intelligence.^[4]

Forecast of Forrester

In October, 2017 analysts of Forrester Research published the forecast for the world market of the information technologies (IT). To it predicted the accelerated growth thanks to software and services of IT consulting though dynamics in the industry will slightly increase.

Specialists of Forrester expect that in 2017 expenses of the companies and public institutions on acquisition program and the hardware and also services in a global masshatb will rise by 3.4%. In the 2018th rise for 4% and achievement of volume in $3 trillion is expected.

The most fast-growing segments researchers call software and services of IT consulting, in each of which revenue will increase by 4.3% and more than for 6% in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Sales of a computer hardware will grow by 2.6% in the 2017th and for 3% in the 2018th whereas world costs for the communication equipment increase by 3.1% and 1.5% respectively. At last, the volume of the sector of IT outsourcing will increase by 2.2% in 2017, the same growth rates will be in the market of telecommunication services, and the indicator will fall in the 2018th below, predict in Forrester.

Analysts called four main events which will take place in the technology industry:

• Improvement of economy will promote growth of IT market. In 2017 the situation in world economy was normalized after political and economic shocks of previous year. This relative stability will allow business and public sector to become more active regarding IT expenses in 2018.

• Sales of cloud services will promptly grow (two-digit rates), however it will negatively affect demand for traditional local IT solutions that, in turn, will contain growth of all market.

• Development of cloud computing favorably is reflected in some segments. For example, in the field of the corporate software where sale of cloud subscriptions by October, 2017 there is more proceeds from sales of licenses for the programs installed for computers, growth by 10% is predicted. However in other categories, like a middleware, services of system integration and IT outsourcing, only a small part of expenses which has not enough to compensate the weak growth of traditional segments are the share of clouds.

• In the USA, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Sweden and Denmark sales of the equipment, software and services in the field of IT will grow not less than by 4% in 2017. The Russian and Brazilian IT markets only leave recession therefore it is not necessary to expect high dynamics, said in the research Forrester here.

• Technologies of back offices will approach business technologies. Analysts predict that expenses on management systems of customer relation, e-commerce, means of client analytics and other solutions which help the company to attract and hold customers (Forrester calls it business technologies) in 2017 will grow to 28% in the total volume of IT market and will occupy more than a half of costs for new technology projects. However investments into such products stimulate expenses on technologies for bek-personnel for the purpose of support of these systems. Such trend will gain steam in 2018.

Analysts add that risks of weak economic growth remain in many countries therefore the companies need still to show a certain care in expenditure of the IT and other budgets. At the same time by the end of 2017 experts build more optimistic forecasts for the IT industry, than at the beginning of a year.^[5]

2016

Gartner: Recession for 0.6%

On January 12, 2017 the Gartner analytical company published results of a research of the world market of the information technologies (IT). Its volume was a little reduced in 2016, but in 2017 and 2018 positive dynamics is expected.

According to data of Gartner, in 2016 expenses on IT on a global scale made $3.375 trillion that is 0.6% less, than the previous year. At the end of 2017 experts predict rise for 2.7% (to $3.464 trillion) though they predicted before growth by 3%. The forecast for 2018 — growth by 2.6% to $3.553 trillion.

Rapprochement of some main trends, including cloud computing, a blockchain, digital business and artificial intelligence occurs. In a normal situation it had to promote increase in IT costs more than for 2.7%. However some political uncertainty in the world markets led to the fact that many companies took a waiting attitude in relation to investments into IT — the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock whose words are cited in the press release of analytical company considers.

According to the expert, gain of economic uncertainty generates stronger difference in IT expenses: some companies and users increase costs to seize the opportunities which are given by crisis and others, on the contrary, reduce or freeze IT budgets.

In the research Gartner it is also said that sales of systems for data centers in 2016 made $170 billion that is 0.6% less than an indicator of year prescription (see the table above). The volume of segments of the corporate software and IT services increased by 5.9% and 3.9%, having reached respectively 333 and 899 billion dollars. Sales of the PC, tablets, notebooks and mobile phones on a global scale decreased by 9% to $588 billion. In the sector of communication services 1 percent recession of income of suppliers — to $1.38 trillion^[6] is recorded]

2015

IDC: Growth of IT expenses in 2015 for 6% without currency fluctuations

On February 17, 2016 IDC analytical company published results of a research of the world market of information technologies. In the report it is announced strong falling of IT expenses in Russia and their slow recovery in the future.

According to data of experts, because of strong recession in the Russian economy the total costs of IT in the country at the end of 2015 were reduced by 8.5% in comparison with an indicator of year prescription. Absolute value is not given.

Specialists say that the Russian IT industry will be gradually recovered also by small rates: in 2016 growth only by 1% is expected. The same growth of IDC predicts in all BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China).

Global sales of IT solutions (the equipment, the software and services) in 2015 made about $2.25 trillion that without currency fluctuations is 6% more, than the previous year. These growth rates correspond to those that took place annually since 2010. However in 2016 analysts predict decrease in dynamics to 2% (to $2.3 trillion) because of demand saturation on smartphones and economic weakness of developing countries to which in IDC carry also Russia.

In a research it is said that despite volatility of global economy 2015 was issued rather stable for the IT industry thanks to the fact that the market of smartphones continued strong growth, having compensated the flat demand on personal computers. In 2015 smartphones provided a half of growth of IT expenses on a global scale.

If not to consider mobile phones, the total costs of technologies by consideration of permanent currency rates continue to grow for 3-4% a year from the moment of recovery after the collapse caused by financial crisis — the analyst of IDC Stephen Minton notes.

In addition to phones, IT market is helped by expenses on cloud infrastructure (in 2015 sales of servers and disk storages rose by 16% and 10% respectively) and the corporate software (growth by 7%), especially on software in the field of analytics, information security and joint work.

However high dollar exchange rate undermines business of the American IT companies. In 2015 the volume of world IT market in dollar expression was reduced by 2%, analysts note.^[7]

Gartner: Record falling of expenses on ICT because of growth of dollar exchange rate

On January 18, 2016 analysts of Gartner announced record falling of the global ICT industry. The reason — high dollar exchange rate.

According to the experts, in 2015 an ICT expenses on a global scale made $3.52 trillion that for $216 billion it is less, than the previous year. So strongly in dollar expression the market never fell during all the time during which Gartner watches it, said in a research.

At the same time specialists consider that the information technology industry will not be able to return to volumes of 2014 to the 2019th though in the 2016th growth by 0.6% to $3.54 trillion is expected.

The growing US dollar exchange rate became the reason of bad results in 2015 — the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock says. — Revenues of the American international companies restrained currency problems. However in 2016 these difficulties will disappear, and the companies will be able to expect 5 percent growth.

According to data of researchers, 2015 total sales of computers, notebooks, mobile phones, tablets and printers dropped by 5.8% and made $653 billion. Economic instability in Russia, Japan, Brazil and other countries and also the shift of accent of users of mobile phones for benefit of cheaper devices in emerging markets also weak sales of tablets in regions where the reverse situation was expected prevent to return to growth to this market.

Data centers were the only growing ICT industry segment in 2015. Here equipment expenses reached $170 billion that is 1.8% more, than the previous year, thanks to preserving of high demand on hyper scalable server solutions.

In 2015 the size of the market of the corporate software dropped by 1.4% to $310 billion. World costs on IT services were reduced by 4.5% to $913 billion, and in 2016 they will return to growth as analysts, due to widespread introduction of cloud computing predict.

Also follows from the report of Gartner that in 2015 was spent for telecommunication services in total by $1.47 trillion. This market suffers because of canceling of a payment for roaming in the European Union countries and some regions of North America.^[8]

Review of the forecast of Gartner:-5.5% at the end of year

At the beginning of July, 2015 the Gartner analytical company lowered the forecast for global IT market, having explained it with a negative impact of strong dollar.

According to the specified data, in 2015 experts expect universal expenses on information technologies at the level of $3.5 trillion that is 5.5% less, than the previous year. If not to consider currency fluctuations, the volume of the industry will rise by 2.5%. Before specialists predicted decrease in IT costs for 1.3% taking into account strong dollar and growth by 3.1% without this factor.

"We want to emphasize that it does not mean a market collapse at all. Big changes in the cost of U.S. dollar in relation to other currencies can create this wrong perception — the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock says. — However there are ghost effects from the growing dollar. Producers are forced to raise the prices to constrain expenses and a sales profit of the products. The companies and consumers should make decisions on purchase adjusted for the new prices".

The largest and at the same time the most strongly falling IT industry segment analysts call telecommunication services. Their volume in 2015 will decrease by 7.2% to $1.5 trillion, predict in Gartner.

Sales of computer devices (desktop PCs, notebooks, tablets, mobile phones and printers) — to $654 billion will drop by 5.5%. In a segment of the equipment for data centers 3.8 percent recession — from $142 billion to $136 billion is expected. This regress is connected with the weakening demand for disk storages and network solutions which the growing sales of servers will not be able to compensate.

According to forecasts of Gartner, in 2015 universal expenses on purchase of the corporate software will reach $310 billion, having reduced by 1.2% in comparison with 2014. Analysts believe that many software vendors will abstain from increase in prices for the products to hold clients, let and to the detriment of income. In the market of IT services in 2015 decrease by 4.3%, to $914 billion^[9] is predicted]

Gartner: Because of Russia the world market of IT will not grow, and will fall

On April 9, 2015 the Gartner research company published the specified forecast for the world IT industry. Instead of increase in its volume analysts expect recession in what there is a wine of the Russian market.^[10]

According to analysts, devaluation of ruble led to sales reduction of computers in Russia. The similar situation is observed in Western Europe and Japan. Because of adverse economic climate in these regions the staff of Gartner predicts 1.2 percent decrease in volume of global market of computer devices (desktop and tablet PCs, notebooks, smartphones, printers, etc.) in 2015 concerning the 2014th. Before specialists predicted rise for 5.1%.

Instead of increase in volume of IT market analysts expect recession in what there is a wine of the Russian market

All IT industry of analytics predict decline by 1.3%, to $3.66 trillion in 2015 while the indicator before $ was called in 3.8 trillion. In 2014 universal IT expenses were measured by $3.71 trillion.

Despite noticeably reduced forecast the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock is sure that there is no accident in it as high dollar exchange rate is the main reason of falling of IT market. If not to consider a currency factor, then costs for information technologies on a global scale as predict in Gartner, will rise by 3.1% in 2015 that on 0.6 percent points there is less former forecast.

Expensive American currency undermines demand for disk storages, corporate network equipment and servers. However sales of these products nevertheless will be able to grow in 2015, let and by small value — 0.4%. At the same time producers of servers more suffer not because of rate fluctuations of currencies, and price pressure which reduces profitability of business of vendors.

According to forecasts of Gartner, in 2015 the size of the market of the corporate software will reach $320 billion that for 2.3% exceeds an indicator of year prescription. In a segment of IT services expenses in $942 billion against $948 billion in 2014 are expected.

In the market of telecommunication services analysts predict 2.6 percent decrease in 2015 — to $1.57 trillion. This recession is caused by decrease in subscriber audience at operators in the developed countries. At the same time the sales increase of the devices raising traffic of mobile data transmission and also use of several SIM cards by one subscriber were not so high, predictably earlier, specialists report.

Gartner: Expensive dollar will slow down growth rates

At the beginning of 2015 the Gartner research company reviewed the forecast for the annual volume of the global IT industry towards reduction. Analysts connected the solution with growth of dollar exchange rate in world foreign exchange market.^[11]

Gartner predicts that at the end of 2015 for information technologies it will be spent in total by $3.8 trillion worldwide that is 2.4% more year on year. Before experts expected raising of IT expenses on 3.9%, but lowered assessment in connection with strengthening of dollar in relation to world currencies.

As of January 5, 2015 euro exchange rate fell rather American currency to a minimum of 2006. The dollar rises in price also to other currencies, including yen and ruble.

Expensive dollar will slow down growth of world IT market

According to the vice president for the researches Gartner John-David Lovelock, the lowered forecast for IT market is not so critical as can seem at first sight as it reflects only a situation with exchange rate fluctuation. Without their accounting global costs for IT in 2015 will grow by 3.7% that on only 0.1 percent points there is less earlier expected indicator, Lavlok noted.

According to the forecast of specialists, in 2015 universal sales of computer devices (desktop and tablet PCs, notebooks, phones, printers, etc.) will rise by 5.1% to $732 billion. Before the staff of Gartner expected 6.4 percent raising of this segment of the IT industry.

In a research it is also said that expenses on data centers in the 2015th will rise by 1.8% and will reach $143 billion. Here experts raised the forecast for costs for communication solutions and network equipment of the corporate level, but lowered assessment on servers and external disk storages.

To the world market of the corporate software predict increase in volume by 5.5% to $335 billion in 2015. Also here the further price erosion and consolidation of vendors caused by gain of the competition among suppliers of cloud services and the traditional software installed on computers is expected.

Growth of expenses on IT services in Gartner was reviewed from 4.1% to 2.5% (the predicted volume — $981 billion). Telecommunication services remain the biggest segment of the IT industry: here costs in 2015, according to the estimates of analysts, will increase by 0.7% rather last year's, having made $1.6 trillion.

2014

Gartner: Growth of business market of IT services by 1.2%

On September 23, 2015 the Gartner analytical company published results of a research of IT market in the different vertical industries. In 2014 insignificant growth, however in the 2015th as experts speak was observed, not to avoid recession.

In 2014 IT costs in the vertical markets on a global scale made nearly $2.8 trillion that is 1.2% more in comparison with previous year. The greatest expenses — $490 billion — fell on the companies occupied in production and work with natural resources. At such enterprises IT budgets increased by 1%. About the same spent financial institutions and the companies specializing in security.

According to forecasts of analysts, by 2019 banks in the developed countries will double the IT budgets for the purpose of the development of digital business and other technology initiatives directed to sales increase of products, quality improvement of customer service and decrease in operating expenses.

The three of the largest consumers of information technologies includes state bodies whose IT expenses in 2014 were measured by $447.61 billion, having decreased by 1.2% concerning an indicator of year prescription. This vertical market was the only thing falling.

Most strongly the cost item considered by Gartner grew in health care — by 2.7% to $107.9 billion. About 40% of IT projects in the field of medicine in which more and more ICT companies is interested worldwide fall to the share of the United States.

Commenting on a situation with IT in the vertical industries in 2015, Anurag Gupta noted struck to the "double blow" market in the form of high dollar exchange rate (especially in relation to euro, yen and ruble) and decelerations of dynamics of growth of the developing states among which – Brazil, China and Russia. Many technology companies keeping the reporting in the American currency show financial recession, Gupta told. In 2015 IT expenses in the vertical markets will drop by 3.5%, predict in Gartner.^[12]

The forecast of IDC for 2014 is reduced from +4.6% to +4.1%

IDC published in May, 2014 the report according to which in 2014 world IT market will grow by 4.1% that is slightly lower, than it was expected earlier – 4.6% and 0.1% less in comparison with 2013. Among the factors which are slowing down market development, specialists of IDC select considerable reduction in demand for mobile devices, an unstable economic situation in a number of developing countries and also transition of the enterprises cloud computing.

IT market in developing countries shows an unstable trend already since the beginning of 2014. Especially crisis in Ukraine aggravated a situation. Due to heavy political country situation, in Russia costs for IT will be reduced practically by 1%, the expense and in 2013 was reduced by the same digit. Let's note that deceleration of development of the Russian IT market has negative effect on other countries of Europe.

In the developed countries the situation considerably improves. So, in Western Europe 2% growth of costs for the IT sector are predicted. Analysts connect this growth with stabilization of economy. Also in Europe for the first time for several years sales of servers and storage systems should grow that in turn "will warm up" demand for IT services which can increase more than by 2%. The similar situation develops in Canada today. IT expenses in the country increased since the beginning of year by 5%. In Japan the situation is slightly worse: last year IT market grew by 3.4%, but in 2014 deceleration of dynamics and even recession for 1% is expected.

Also the situation in the IT sector in China changes in 2014. If earlier Celestial Empire was the driver of world IT market, then this year it did not get this role. In 2014 in China deceleration of growth to level below 7% is expected. However, if the situation changes to the best, then IT expenses in the country can grow by 10%.

Analysts note that today considerable deceleration of growth in sales of mobile devices became one more weak point of IT market: smartphones and tablets. On the one hand it is connected with reduction of prices and also – strong market saturation.

Traditionally mobile segment made the significant contribution to growth of IT market. Without this sector IT expenses in 2014 will grow by 2.9-3.1%. These digits include costs for corporate products to a large extent: IT services and infrastructure solutions. Analysts of IDC note that at the enterprises demand connected with need of updating of "iron" collected: servers, storage systems and network equipment.

One more factor which "loosens" IT market is mass transition to cloud computing. According to forecasts of experts, about 10% of all expenses which the enterprises and the companies will spend for the software, and 15% of costs for servers and storage systems will be come to the end of 2014 on clouds. Similar changes in the market will concern first of all vendors which build the business according to the classical scheme of IT budgets, however for a number of the companies prospects of short-term growth will be offered.

Transition to cloud computing though has today mass character, however a number of the companies do not hurry to change the classical scheme of creation of IT infrastructure. Often it is connected with security issues, reliability of data storage and also with requests and requirements of regulators. However even such enterprises create the internal infrastructure constructed on private and hybrid clouds. All these processes, according to analysts of IDC, will become drivers of growth of IT market in the next several years.

The forecast of Gartner for 2014: +3.2%

Due to some signs of recovery which are given by world economy the Gartner company gave in April, 2014 the forecast for global expenses on IT in 2014 in the amount of 3.8 trillion dollars that is 3.2% more, than in 2013.

Analysts of Gartner consider that in 2014 consumers will buy a set of new devices; however in comparison with previous years demand for basic and cheaper goods will increase.

The iron market (including the PC, ultramobile devices, mobile phones and tablets) in 2014 will return to growth and will reach value of 689 billion dollars that 4.4% are more, than in 2013 (see the table). However, in top-line spending, shift in the product mix continues to be seen in the marketplace. At the same time demand for expensive premium phones will slow down, buyers in the developed countries prefer premium products of average price level, and preference is given to class low-end phones based on Android in developing countries.

The number of users of traditional PCs is reduced, there will be only most devoted of them. Consumers as the notebook will buy generally premium ultrabooks, and as the additional device – the tablet. Will be a pacing factor at the decision on purchase price.

World costs for IT of 2013-2014 (one billion dollars)

	Расходы в 2013 г.	Динамика в 2013 г., (%)	Расходы в 2014 г.	Динамика в 2014 г., (%) (%)2014
Компьютерные устройства	660	-1.4	689	4.4
Дата-центры	140	-0.2	143	2.3
Корпоративное ПО	299	4.9	320	6.9
ИТ-сервисы	922	1.8	964	4.6
Телеком-сервисы	1,633	-0.5	1,655	1.3
Расходы на ИТ, всего	3,654	0.4	3,771	3.2

Source: Gartner, April, 2014.

Regarding network equipment for the enterprises cloud and mobile solutions will be the main drivers of the market. Virtualization and also cloud solutions will become incentives of demand for Ethernet switches for data centers, and distribution of mobile access points continues to stimulate impressive demand for the wireless LAN equipment.

The biggest growth (6.9% relatively 2013) will show the market of the corporate software. Such software types as CRM, DBMS (DBMS), instruments of data integration and quality improvement of data (data quality tools) will be demanded. Costs for DBMS will even exceed costs for operating systems, analysts of Gartner claim, in 2014 it is (DBMS) there will be the biggest segment of the market of the corporate software on costs.

In the field of IT services of costs of buyers analysts of Gartner of steady growth of costs in this sphere switch from consulting (project planning) to their implementation (doing projects), and.

In the field of telecom services in 2014 small growth is expected. Partially it is connected with falling of costs for services of fixed connection and migration of corporate communication lines on VoIP and communication via the Internet.

2013

The forecast of IDC for 2014 of +5% and more

According to IDC of November, 2013^[13], world expenses on IT at last will go to growth in 2014 after in 2013 reached the worst dynamics from the moment of recent financial crisis. At the end of 2013, predict in IDC, universal expenses on technologies will grow by 4% to $2.04 trillion (growth in 2012 was 5%) because of decrease in the key markets, such as China and Russia.

In 2014, expect in IDC, recovery of the market in China and also strengthening of IT market in the USA and Europe will give to the industry an impulse to growth which will exceed 5% so world expenses on IT in the following for the 2013th can make to year $2.14 trillion.

Growth of world IT expenses (in permanent currency)

Growth of IT expenses depending on the region 2013/2014 (in permanent currency)

Actually, more than a half of growth of the IT industry in 2013 are provided with the proceeding agiotage in the market of smartphones and tablets. Corporate expenses on IT in many regions remained weak area because of decline in demand for the PC, servers and storage systems.

Nevertheless, good results which were shown by the computer market in the third quarter 2013 allow IDC to hope that we are waited by the next 12-18 monthly turnover cycle of the equipment. Including thanks to it expenses on servers, storage systems and corporate networks in 2014 will grow by 4% against 1% in 2013.

The forecast of IT costs of Forrester for 2013 of +4.5% or $2.06 trillion

According to the next forecast of Forrester Research of July, 2013, world expenses on information technologies in 2013 will make $2.06 trillion, including costs for software, the equipment and IT services from the corporate sector and the state organizations. Among the countries of the world most of all funds for IT will be spent in the USA. Among expense categories of the largest in 2013 will become as it is surprising, applications.

It is interesting that assessment of Forrester there are much less estimates of Gartner published according to the results of the first half of the year 2013: according to the last company, world IT expenses in 2013 will make $3.7 trillion.

Moreover, Forrester in January, 2013 predicted higher costs growth rates on IT: 5.4% in permanent currency and 3.3% in a dollar equivalent. Now it is about growth by 2.3% in dollars and for 4.5% in permanent currency whereas digits of Gartner assume growth by 2% in dollars and for 3.5% in permanent currency.

Forrester Research, 2013

Software, according to forecasts of Forrester, will become the main item of expenditure in IT budgets in 2013, all $542 billion will be spent for it. In 2013 investments of the organizations into the software will grow by 3.3%, and and in 2014 – already for 6.2%.

In an equipment segment on the expense level on rates tablets and specifically Apple company continue to be in the lead. Though the PC in terms of money remains the most volume item of expenditure among all categories hardware ($134.2 million in 2013), growth is only 3% here. Whereas growth of costs for tablets is 36% - to $21 billion, from them $14 billion is necessary on products of Apple. In 2014 it will be spent for the PC for only $1 billion more - $135 billion.

As for other large segments of the market, $411 billion will be spent in 2013 for IT outsourcing, $322 billion – for the communication equipment, $389 billion – for IT consulting and services in integration of systems.

As it was already told above, among the countries of the world most of all in 2013 will spend for IT of the USA: $819 billion, and in 2014 – already $875 billion that is comparable to expenses of Western Europe and Asia combined. The growth rate of expenses of the USA for 2013 is 5.9%, EMEA region – 6.9%, the highest growth rate by 2014 will be reached in Latin America – 10.7%. Separately expenses of Europe on IT in 2013 will make $487 billion.

The forecast of IDC for expenses on IT for 2013 of +4.9%

According to the research IDC of May, 2013^[14], world expenses on IT were slightly lower predicted in the second half of 2012 and the first quarter 2013. System problems in economy of the USA, the European debt crisis and decrease in GDP China created the negative pattern which had an impact on the majority of segments of IT market.

According to the updated forecast, growth of IT of expenses in the world in 2013 will be 4.9% in permanent currency. Earlier growth at the level of 5.6% whereas at the end of 2012 it was 5.5% was predicted. In terms of money world expenses on IT in 2013 will make $2.06 trillion, and including telecom services (i.e. in the sector of ICT in general) – will grow by 4.5% to $3.7 trillion.

Strong positions of U.S. dollar can have a positive impact specifically on IT of vendors from the USA. In 2012 IT the expenses expressed in U.S. dollars grew by only 2.9% that it is not enough in comparison with 2011 (9.5%). Based on exchange differences of the first quarter 2013, analysts on the end of the year predict growth of expenses on IT at the level of 4.2% in a dollar equivalent.

Decrease in the forecast of IT of expenses from IDC is in many respects caused by constantly decreasing deliveries of the PC, here decrease does not stop since 2012. In permanent currency in 2013, experts predict, costs on the PC will be reduced by 3%. On the contrary, mobile computers remain the main driver of growth of the industry. Having excluded them from the overall ranking, it is possible to see that growth of IT of expenses in 2012 will be equal only 2.8%, and in 2013 – 2.6%. World expenses on smartphones in 2013 will grow by 17%, by tablets – for 32%.

Similarly growth of cloud of services kannibalizirut growth in a segment of commercial software and IT services. For May, 2013 IDC predicts following the results growth of expenses on software at the level of 5.6% in permanent currency and at the level of 3.8% in a segment of IT services. As for the market of the equipment, costs both on servers, and on storage systems will be reduced here (the turnover cycle of 2011-2012 was fully completed). Revenue in an equipment segment in 2013 will grow by 2.4% in comparison with 6.1% in 2012. The stablest growth, in a segment of corporate networks, will be 6.8% in 2013.

Let's remind that in December, 2012 IDC predicted^[15]that in 2013 world IT expenses will reach $2.1 trillion that for 5.7% it is more than 2012. 90% of growth in world IT market is necessary on mobile, social, cloud and big data of technology. One more powerful driver of growth – further intellectualization of mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, readers), this segment of the market will grow by 20% in 2013, having generated 57% of growth of all industry.

As for regional distinctions, IT expenses in emerging markets will grow by 8.8% in 2013 to more than $730 billion, are 34% of universal expenses on information technologies, however, on them a half of a world gain of expenses is necessary at the same time.

The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will dominate as regards costs for high technologies, and for China 25% about above the called amount is necessary. It is interesting that due to this rapid growth Asian vendors will seriously strengthen positions in global ratings, for example, it already happens to smartphone manufacturer of ZTE who managed to be in the top three around the world.

The forecast of an ICT expenses of Gartner for 2013: $3.8 trillion

World expenses on ICT, according to forecasts of March, 2013 of Gartner Gartner Says Worldwide IT Spending on Pace to Reach company^[16] of March, 2013, in 2013 will reach $3.8 trillion that is 4.1% more in comparison with 2012. Exchange differences will not have too great influence on growth indicators, in particular, growth in permanent currency is predicted at the level of 4% for the same period.

Richard Gordon, the vice president of Gartner, said that though the USA experiences permanent financial difficulties, and the events in Cyprus on the effect are comparable to shock, these negative factors will have only short-term effect on IT expenses in the world and will not cause suspension of strategic projects and initiatives.

World expenses on devices (including the PC, tablets, mobile phones and printers), according to forecasts, will make $718 billion in 2013 that for 7.9% it is higher than 2012.

World expenses on ICT, $ one billion

	Expenses of 2012	Growth of 2012	Expenses of 2013	Growth of 2013	Expenses of 2014	Growth of 2014
Devices	665	9%	718	7,9%	758	5,7%
Data centers	141	1,9%	146	3,7%	152	4%
Corporate software	279	3,5%	297	6,4%	316	6,7%
IT services	878	1,5%	918	4,5%	963	4,9%
Telecom services	1655	-0,4%	1688	2%	1728	2,4%
In total	3618	2,1%	3766	4,1%	3917	4%

Gartner, March, 2013

Analysts note also the following trend: in spite of the fact that the volume of consumption of IT in general grows, its structure cardinally changes so among vendors in the next 3-5 years there will be a great number of "winners and losers". In particular, the significant shift of the user demand from personal computers to mobile, from servers to storage systems, from license software to cloud is observed, and transfer of voice and other data moves from the fixed broadband networks to mobile.

In 2013 expenses on systems for data centers will grow by 3.7% that is 0.7% lower than the previous forecast of Gartner, the forecast is lowered because of problems in the market of the region of EMEA. Expenses of the corporate sector on the software will make $297 billion in 2013 that for 6.4% it is higher than 2012.

The forecast of an ICT expenses of Gartner for 2013: $3.7 trillion

World expenses on ICT, according to the forecast of Gartner Gartner Says Worldwide IT Spending Forecast to Reach^[17] of January, 2013, in 2013 will reach $3.7 trillion that is 4.2% more than an indicator of 2012 ($3.6 trillion). Thus, in comparison with the forecast for 2013 of the third quarter 2012 in dollar expression the forecast is increased by 0.4%.

According to analysts of Gartner, the most part of a gain of expenses on IT in percentage expression is caused by exchange differences of dollar and other foreign currencies. Expressed in permanent currency (dollar), expenses on IT in 2013 will increase by 3.9%.

As for separate segments, world expenses on devices (including the PC, tablets, mobile phones and printers), according to forecasts, will reach $666 billion in 2013 that for 6.3% it is more than 2012. In the third quarter 2012 of Gartner, however, gave to this sector more positive forecast for 2013: growth by 7.9% to $706 billion.

The long-term forecast for the market of devices is also lowered as of January, 2013: from 2012 to 2016 it will make about 4.5% annually in dollar expression (the indicator in 6.4%) and about 5.1% annually in permanent currency (earlier - 7.4% was given earlier).

Forecast of world IT expenses 2012-2014, $ one billion

	Expenses of 2012	Growth of 2012	Expenses of 2013	Growth of 2013	Expenses of 2014	Growth of 2014
Devices	627	2,9%	666	6,3%	694	4,2%
Data centers	141	2,3%	147	4,5%	154	4,2%
Corporate software	278	3,3%	296	6,4%	316	6,8%
IT services	881	1,8%	927	5,2%	974	5,1%
Telecom services	1661	-0,1%	1701	2,4%	1742	2,4%
In total	3588	1,2%	3737	4,2%	3881	3,8%

Source: Gartner, January, 2013

Corporate expenses on the software, according to the updated data, will grow in 2013 in relation to 2012 by 6.4% to $296 billion. Such segments as security, software of management of storages and CRM will become key drivers, however, by 2014 focus in the market to be displaced for benefit of Big Data and technologies of information management, such as corporate content management, integration tools this and similar.

The world market of telecom services as regards expenses on IT will remain to the largest. Gartner predicts that here expenses on mobile technologies will actively increase: their share in the total amount of telecom costs will change from 22% in 2012 up to 33% in 2016.

The forecast of Gartner of IT expenses of the enterprises for 2013: +2.5% to $2.6 trillion

World IT expenses of the enterprises, according to forecasts of Gartner, will reach $2.679 trillion in 2013 that is 2.5% more than forecast expenses in 2012 - $2.603 trillion^[18]. The maximum growth of expenses on IT up to 2016 will be shown by the financial, communication companies, the companies of the sphere of media and services and also manufacturing enterprises.

In general analysts of Gartner estimate 2013 optimistically as the USA and Europe managed to avoid any global economic shocks. Moreover, as most the enterprises and organizations so reduced IT expenses in recent years, they did not have "stock" for further reduction of costs as they need to save certain budgets for maintenance of operating activities.

Among the vertical markets on the volume of IT expenses, according to Gartner, the sector of production and natural resources will be in the lead - on them $478 billion in 2013 is necessary that is 2.3% more, than in a year the 2012th ($467 billion). A considerable part of these means will be spent for automation and process optimization of sales and also cloud, social, mobile computing and big data.

Also significant growth of IT expenses will be shown by banks and the sector of security: in 2013 in these industries of costs for information technologies will make $460 billion that is 3.5% more, than in 2012 ($445 billion). These industries very intensively invest in IT, spending for technologies three times bigger in % of own revenue, than the enterprise of any other industries. Here area of the application of investments are automation of loans, payments, trading transactions and risk management.

Against the background of other essential growth of IT expenses is also expected in the industries of transport and insurance - more than for 4%. IT expenses in the transport sector will reach in 2013 $126 billion in comparison with $121 billion in the 2012th year. In the insurance industry for a comparable time frame they will increase from $179 billion to $187 billion.

In 2012 public sector costs on IT will be reduced by 2%, and this decrease will remain in 2013 - these years they will make $447 billion and $445 billion respectively.

2012

IDC: IT expenses in 2012 will grow by 6% to $2.1 trillion

In the third quarter 2012 IDC predicted that IT expenses will grow in 2012 by 6% in permanent currency to $2.1 trillion, it is 1% less, than growth of a similar indicator for 2011 (then it made 7%), according to IDC IDC Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow^[19]. Rather serious progress in the software market, storage systems, corporate networks and mobile devices is extinguished by simultaneous falling of the PC markets, servers, the periphery and telecommunication equipment.

Rather sure positions of U.S. dollar in the first half of the year 2012 mean that world expenses on IT will grow in 2012 by 4% in U.S. dollars though in 2011 in dollar expression they grew by 10.5%. Including telecom services, cumulative world ICT expenses will grow by 5% in 2012 to $3.6 trillion (for 2.5% in dollar expression).

In one of key world IT markets, in the USA, expenses on IT in 2012 will increase by 5.9% that below, than in 2011 (then growth was 8.5%). Still industry analysts hope that Windows 8 release in the fourth quarter will promote 2012 recovery of the local PC of the market in a year following.

Though in Western Europe rates of development of economy of essential slowed down that negatively affects IT expenses, in Northern Europe deliveries of software and also mobile devices rather seriously grew. Nevertheless, in the whole IT expenses in this region in 2012 will grow only by 1% in permanent currency and will decrease by 4.5% in a dollar equivalent.

In Japan expenses on IT in permanent currency will grow only by 2% in 2012, the forecast for 2013 for this country – reserved. In emerging markets rates of a gain of IT of expenses will be more essential. For example, in China in 2012 it will make 14% in permanent currency (in 2011 – 25%), in India – 14%, in Brazil – 14%, in Russia – 11%, in the Republic of South Africa – 8%.

Gartner: Expenses on ICT in 2012 will make $3.6 tlrn (+3%)

World expenses on ICT will reach in 2012 $3.6 tlrn that for 3% it is higher than 2011 when this indicator was $3.5 trillion. Such forecast gives Gartner as of July, 2012. Quarter before Gartner predicted only 2.5% increase in world expenses on information technologies.

The forecast of Gartner is based on data on key solutions in the field of high technologies more than 75% from the Global 500 list. According to Richard Gordon (Richard Gordon), the vice president for the researches Gartner, despite presence of adverse economic calls, such as crisis in the Eurozone, weak rates of recovery of the market to the USA, deceleration of growth rates in China, at the moment the short-term forecast is submitted more or less stable.

Nevertheless, some segments of IT market will grow much quicker than others. For example, according to forecasts of Garter, expenses of the corporate sector on public cloud services will grow with $91 billion around the world in 2011 to $109 billion in 2012. By 2016 this segment will make of $207 billion, i.e. will actually double in 5 years.

World expenses on IT services will increase to $864 billion in 2012 that for 2.3% it is more than 2011. Demand for consulting services, as expected, will remain high. Telecom services will remain the largest segments of the market – in 2012 it will grow in volume by 1.4% to $1686 billion.

Forecast of world expenses on IT, one million dollars

Gartner, July, 2012

Expenses on a computer hardware in 2012, according to forecasts of Gartner, will increase in volume by 3.4% to $420 billion, and by telecommunication equipment – for 10.8% to $377 billion. Expenses on the corporate software will increase by 4.3% to $281 billion.

Gartner: Expenses on the corporate software will reach $120.4 billion in 2012 (+4.5%)

World expenses on corporate software applications will reach $120.4 billion in 2012 that is 4.5% more than similar costs in 2011 when they made $115.2 billion, according to Gartner. In comparison with the previous such forecast it is lowered for 0.5% as of June, 2012.

Tom Eid, the vice president of Gartner, said that global market still is under the influence of a number of political conflicts and the depressing economic news. So in 2012 expenses of the enterprises on IT will be concentrated around generally customized industry applications, updating of the existing systems, software, crucial for business, integration and protection of systems and infrastructure. Besides, the large role will be played by the further growth of use of SaaS as alternatives to old solutions and implementation of new.

(On the volume and growth rates) segments of the market of the corporate software in 2012 segments of a business intelligence (BI), communications and joint work, automation of customer relation (CRM), systems for creation of digital content, ERP systems, office suites and means of personal work, project management and a portfolio and also a segment of the solution for supply chain management (SCM) will be key.

On volume the large segments will remain a segment of ERP, it will reach $24.9 billion in 2012, on the second place there will be office applications - $16.5 billion, then BI - $13 billion and CRM - also $13 billion.

Analysts of Gartner predict that in 2012 alternative models of acquisition of software will continue to develop actively. In this regard not only SaaS, but also virtualization and also managements of IT assets will be in great demand. As a result use of SaaS and cloud services will grow from 11% in 2010 to 16% in 2015 in a total amount of consumption in the market of corporate applications.

The forecast of JP Morgan for 2012 of +2.2%

The JP Morgan company reviewed the forecast of rather world IT expenses for 2012, having stated that deceleration of world production rates and also macroeconomic instability in Europe negatively affect opportunities of the companies to invest in information technologies. If before analytics predicted growth of IT expenses in the world in 2012 for 3.8%, then now they were limited to 2.2%.

Besides, in JP Morgan "are concerned by the fact that China can become a source of the growing uncertainty for the majority of technology segments", said in an analytical note of the company extended among clients.

Analysts of JP Morgan lowered the forecast of global costs practically for all segments of the market of the equipment, except for tablets. Growth of expenses on software solutions will be, according to new estimates, 2.5% in 2012 (the number of 5.5% was given earlier).

In a note it is said that about 35-40% of growth in a software segment are exposed to serious risk because of expense reduction on IT of the European companies, government organizations of the USA and the companies of the industry of financial services now.

The forecast is lowered as well for a segment of IT services: it is supposed that in 2012 it will increase in volume by 1.3%, but not for 3.1%, according to the previous forecast.

Poll of directors and top managers - June, 2012.

In April, 2012 Gartner published survey results of directors and top managers. On everything leaves that the market is waited by shocks, at least, 85% of respondents announced the forthcoming impact of economic downturn on activity of their companies. Special concern is shown by heads of the companies located in Europe and Africa, to a lesser extent – in the Pacific Rim and North America. Nevertheless, one and all participants give the negative outlook.

According to Mark Raskino (Mark Raskino), the vice president of Gartner, number No. 1 for heads of the companies is a priority preserving of a trend of growth of business. However the second most important task, since 2009, – search of ways of cost reduction.

Despite the growing concern in an economic situation, two thirds of respondents intend to increase expenses on IT in 2012. Jorge Lopez, the vice president and the leading analyst of Gartner, considers desire of customers to invest in technologies sign of improvement of a situation in the market. "Current trends, such as mobile technologies and cloud computing, gradually become subject to close attention from heads", – he noted. Traditionally advantageous position is held the CRM system which play a role of the main marketing tool of customer retention.

In the conclusions of analytics of Gartner drawn based on the conducted research highlight that for achievement of strategic objectives investment into IT shall be followed by upgrade of a management system for the companies. Many heads with an experience in the 1990th – managed to get the 2000th years negative experience when equipment costs and technologies did not bring the expected effect. Along with implementation of hi-tech IT projects it is necessary to carry out systematic changes in politicians, processes, an organization structure, roles and corporate culture.

Gartner: An ICT expenses will reach $3.7 trillion in 2012

According to the forecast of Gartner (April, 2012), the total amount of IT budgets in 2012 will reach $3.7 trillion – it is 2.5% more, than in 2011, however there is less growth predicted earlier at the level of 3.7%. Analysts of Gartner explain deceleration of growth rates not with real reducing costs of IT, and strengthening of dollar in relation to some world currencies. Costs only in dollars in 2012 should grow by 5.2% in comparison with the forecast made earlier at the level of 4.6% at all.

The forecast of Gartner of distribution of IT budgets in $ one billion (April, 2012)

	Costs 2011	Growth 2011, %	Costs 2012	Growth 2012, %
Hardware	404	7.7	421	4.3
Corporate software	267	9.2	280	5.0
IT services	845	6.5	856	1.3
Telecommunication equipment	442	7.2	472	6.9
Telecommunication services	1704	6.3	1721	1.0
All ICT industry	3661	6.8	3751	2.5

Richard Gordon, the vice president for the researches Gartner, gave a number of factors which force to look with care at perspectives of recovery of world economy. First of all, it is debt crisis of a number of the European countries, a potentiality of collapse of a bubble in the real estate market in China, effects of what can be pernicious for global economy, increase in prices for oil. At the same time, the preliminary estimates made by Gartner install some share of optimism.

Where it is definitely not necessary to expect large IT budgets in 2012-2013, so it in a public sector. A basic reason – introduction of tight restrictions on many items of expenditure in the eurozone because of debt crisis. In the market of the USA the similar situation will remain, at least, till 2013.

In a segment of SMB of which about a quarter of volume of the global IT budget is the share in 2012 costs for IT will reach $874 billion and will grow to $1 trillion by 2016. Approximately every five years expenses on IT in a segment of medium business appear more, than in the others. The recurrence of updating of the park of the corporate software is the reason of it.

The highest rates of growth will be shown by the world market of telecommunication equipment, costs for which in 2012 presumably will make $472 billion, – it is 6.9% more than indicators of last year. Among premises of preserving of a trend there are an increase in demand for mobile devices and corporate network equipment, first of all, wireless and traditional Ethernet switches, devices for security of networks, performance improvements and scalabilities.

The forecast of Gartner for developing countries for 2012

Emerging markets will generate $1.22 trillion IT expenses in 2012 that will make about 31% of global costs for IT. It is said in another research Gartner.

The research company carries the countries of the Pacific Rim to number of like those (excepting the markets of Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Tayvani) and also Latin America, the Middle East and Africa (except Israel) and also Central and Eastern Europe. They manage to save positive dynamics even despite economic instability in general around the world.

According to Luís Anavitarte (Luis Anavitarte), the vice president of Gartner, more than a half of a gain of IT expenses among developing countries in 2012 is necessary on BRIMK (Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and China). In general from IT expenses in the world on these five countries in 2012 17% is necessary that corresponds to $658 billion.

As for a regional reality that Latin America will generate about $326 billion IT expenses in 2012 from which 48.4% is necessary on corporate the sector. Respectively expenses of business market will make $157.7 billion, and user - $168 billion.

IT expenses in the Middle East and in Africa as expects Gartner, will reach $244 billion in 2012 from which 35% is necessary on three countries – Saudi Arabia, Turkey and South Africa. 38% of IT expenses of the region will make business segment expenses, these are about $93 billion.

Central and Eastern Europe, as expected, will generate about $158 billion IT expenses in 2012, them which 48.2% is necessary on the corporate sector it is $76 billion. Expenses on IT in mass market will make $81.7 billion. At the same time the share of Russia in IT expenses of the region will make 45%, on the second place Poland – 11.8%, further the Czech Republic – 7.7% and Hungary – 3.7%.

Expenses on IT among developing countries of the Pacific Rim in 2012 can make up to $496 billion, from them 42% is necessary on the business sector whereas the user segment spends for IT 58% or $288 billion.

The forecast of PAC for 2012

Analysts of PAC demonstrate that world IT expenses are recovered, however, this statement fairly not for all sectors and the countries. For example, though segments of software and IT services in 2011 were recovered practically in all markets, in respect of the specific countries there is a big difference in their development, and in 2012 for the IT industry a number of last year's calls, said in the research PAC will remain.

Forecast of growth rates of IT market for regions of 2009-2013

Source: PAC, 2012

In general 2012 will remain to IT, difficult for the industry, experts of PAC consider. According to the company, growth of IT market in EMEA region in 2011 in comparison by 2010 was about 4%. Further it will accelerate, having reached already by the end 2012 more than 6%, and to the end of 2013 – about 7%.

Forecast of growth of world IT market for segments 2009-2013

Source: PAC, 2012

Growth rates of a segment of the software during the period from 2009 to 2013 will exceed growth rates of a segment of IT services. In 2011/2012 the ratio of these indicators will make 4.2% to 3.4%, and in 2012/2013 – 5% to 4.5%.

The climate in IT market depends in the most serious way on an economic situation in the region. For example, in a number of the countries experiencing economic difficulties, such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, business and organizations are more focused on short-term reduction of IT expenses. Whereas in other regions, for example, of Australia, the USA and the BRIC countries, they are more aimed at increase in revenue and efficiency that quite often leads to creation of new IT concepts.

The financial industry (and most of all investment banking) and the agencies of the public sector remain under the serious pressure of debt obligations and deficit of means. For comparison, the situation in the industry of production remains comparably positive. But even in the same industry IT expenses are influenced first of all by economic country situation. For example, in Germany car makers are much more optimistic, than their colleagues in France whereas because of decisions on closing of the NPP in Germany the German nuclear scientists are more depressively configured, than French.

However, even if the companies are aimed at development of the innovative solutions and models, it does not prevent them to pursue the aims on reduction of operating budgets. They aim to receive "more for the same money" from the IT suppliers, said in the research PAC.

At the same time most the organizations still are in process of consolidation of the IT infrastructure belonging to them and applications. "Only the few from them already see the final of long process of creation of flexible and strong IT base", - Christophe Châlons, the leading analyst of PAC said.

According to analysts of PAC, industrialization, separation service centers and offshore offers still are at the peak of relevance, both on the party of users, and on the party of suppliers. At the same time the number of suppliers of IT products proceeds to be laid off as clients prefer to work with a limited intimate circle of suppliers in all regions of presence. Also high demand on outsourcing services remains.

Such IT projects which they consider necessary 100% and also costs allowing to reduce in the short term are in the first place among the companies or provide fast ROI. Only the companies with a large supply of cash can devote at the time of crisis themselves to deep conversion of business processes due to new technologies. The main difference from crisis of 2008-2009 consists that still there is a lot of such companies.

Mobile technologies and tablets will become the main innovation areas in 2012, according to PAC; analytics in respect of the analysis in real time and processings of large volumes of data, data visualizations; new concepts and technologies of integration and stimulations of the innovation projects.

Also the companies will continue to invest in M2M, means of joint work, CRM, risk management and other solutions. Taking into account industry specifics integration of PLM (both with ERP, and with MES), integration after merges, electronic medicine and a body medicine, smart grid will be "hot" areas.

2011

IDC: In 2011 world expenses on IT grew by 5% in permanent currency

According to data of the research IDC Worldwide Black Book, in 2011 world IT expenses grew by 5% in permanent currency, despite economic problems in Western Europe and some other regions. According to forecasts of analysts of the company, in 2012 in permanent currency world IT expenses can grow by 5%. At the same time segments of the equipment and the software – for 6% in permanent currency, and costs for IT services – for 4%.

The steadiest demand in 2011 was noted in a segment of smartphones (+46%), software (+6%) and the systems of disk storage (+6%). Business continued to invest in updating of infrastructure and also new applications and mobile devices, including tablets. These positive trends will remain in 2012 when expenses industrial expenses on network equipment also grow. Moreover, by the end of 2012 the world market of the PC will also recover positive dynamics, consider in IDC.

Stephen Minton, the vice president of IDC, points as well to a number of risks which will have an impact on development of world IT market in 2012. First of all it is macroeconomic problems in Europe where IT expenses remain at a low level. At the negative scenario this crisis can be aggravated and create effect of a wave concerning other regions. But, according to the expert, positive status lights of the markets of the USA and developing countries do not give yet a reason to speak about deceleration.

The most quickly growing there is IT market of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) which not the first year shows two-digit growth. IT expenses of Brazil, Russia, India and China will grow by 9%, 11%, 16% and 15% respectively in 2012.

Economic problems of Europe already had the most serious impact on IT expenses in this region. Already the consumer activity in such segments as the PC, servers, storage systems, peripheral and network the equipment decreased. The way to recovery of the European IT market will be long: growth in 2012 will be no more than 1%, and in 2013 – 3%.

In the USA in 2011 expenses on IT grew by 7%, in 2012 steady growth of IT expenses, approximately for 5%, at the expense of first of all mobile devices, the software and network equipment is also expected. Japan will return to positive growth rate of IT market after the lowering caused by an earthquake of 2011 and serious economic problems which followed it.

Gartner: World expenses of the enterprises on IT of 2012 will grow by 3.9%

According to the new forecast of Gartner company (October, 2011), world expenses of the enterprises on IT in 2012 should make $2.7 trillion^[20].

It is 2011 forecasts 3.9% higher year in the amount of $2.6 trillion, however below, than growth in 2011 which should make 5.9%. According to analysts of Gartner, only in 2011 350 companies from around the world will invest on average more than $1 billion in IT.

In the fourth quarter 2011 Gartner conducted the world survey of 2335 IT heads (2012 CIO Agenda) representing IT byuzhety the enterprises with a total amount more than $321 billion in 37 industries in the territory of 45 countries.

10 highest business priorities	Rating	10 highest business priorities	Rating
Intensification of growth of the enterprise	1	Analysis and business analysis	1
Attraction and deduction of new clients	2	Mobile technologies	2
Cost reduction of the enterprise	3	Cloud computing (SaaS, IaaS, PaaS)	3
Creation of new products and services (innovation)	4	Technologies of joint work (document flow)	4
Delivering operational results	5	Virtualization	5
Improvement of efficiency	6	Upgrade	6
Increase in profitability (margin)	7	IT management	7
Attraction and deduction of labor power	8	CRM	8
Improvement of marketing and efficiency of sales	9	ERP applications	9
Entry into the new markets and new territories	10	Security	10

Source: Gartner (January, 2012)

According to its results, 61% of the polled enterprises answered that within the next three years they will increase use of opportunities of mobile technologies.

46% of IT heads reported that their IT budget within 2011 - 2012 will correspond to actual expenses. This year the average enterprise will go for insignificant increase in the budget at IT - from 2% to 3%.

According to the average world data for 2012, IT budgets, as expected, at most the enterprises will not rise. The largest IT investments will be made in Latin America (growth of IT budgets up to 12.7%) and the Pacific Rim (height of 3.4%).

While the weakest will be mentioned at the largest enterprises in North America (decrease by 0.6%) and Europe (decrease by 0.7%). Larger enterprises, with IT budgets more than $500 million, will continue cost reduction on IT, having reduced them to very modest growth.

Nevertheless, analysts note that the role of high technologies increases in life of the enterprises. The vice president of Gartner Mark McDonald noted that it, however, does not mean growth of the importance of IT departments.

According to him, against the background of the proceeding economic uncertainty and tough state economic policy, effective business strategy require a combination of growth of investments and efficiency of actions. "Modern economic conditions can tempt Chief information officers to return to the cost reduction mode, but heads of business expect growth from technologies, including information", - McDonald emphasized.

Chief information officers even more often consider technologies of analytics / business-analiza, mobile solutions, "clouds" and social networks in a combination, but not separately, for achievement of the maximum effect. Change of consumer experience of clients demands from the enterprises of changes in external interaction with them.

In 2012 BI will remain to some of principal directions of IT investments. At the same time Chief information officers for creation of new opportunities in business combine analytics with other technologies. For example: technologies of analytics plus a supply chain - for process management at the enterprise and their improvements, Analytics Plus mobile technologies - for actions in the field and sales, Analytics Plus social networks - for customer acquisition.

The countries on the level of development of IT: Sweden and Singapore are called leaders

The Global Information Technology Report 2010-2011 Complete text

On April 12, 2011 the World Economic Forum (WEF) published the rating of the countries on information technology development in 2010 - 2011. Leaders continue to remain Sweden and Singapore. The third place was taken by Finland, Switzerland and the USA close the five.

The top ten of the leaders of the rating includes almost all Scandinavian countries, including Denmark (7) and Norway (9), but except for Iceland (the 16th place). Economies of "Asian tigers" follow Singapore and continue to grow in rating: Taiwan and Korea improve the positions on 5 places everyone (up to 6 and 10, respectively), is close to leaders there is also Hong Kong (12). China, after several consecutive years of fast development, took the 36th place in rating.

China develops ICT most successfully than other BRIC countries, and advances India (48), Brazil (56) and Russia (77), according to the report of the WEF.

Russia, according to the report, rose in rating by 3 positions. The favorable environment for development of ICT infrastructure (the 42nd place) and also rather high level of readiness of the population for use of ICT (the 59th place) and direct use of ICT by the population (the 55th place) belongs to strengths of the country.

At the same time, a number of problems interfere with distribution of ICT: including the undeveloped market (the 118th place), legislative regulation (the 111th place), the low levels of readiness for use of ICT and direct use of ICT from business and a public sector. The president Dmitry Medvedev was surprised to low positions of Russia in world IT ratings two years ago.

The index of development of ICT is based on a combination of public statistical data and survey results of heads of the companies. In total in WEF rating 138 countries are explored.

2010

IDC: In 2010 the record growth of costs for IT to $1.5 trillion (+8%) is recorded

World expenses on information technologies (computers, servers, software, services and other) without rate fluctuations of currencies in 2010 grew by 8% in comparison with 2009 to more than $1.5 trillion, IDC reports. According to analysts, since 2007 it is the greatest gain year on year. Besides, the volume of expenses appeared above the expected values. Taking into account the sphere of telecommunications expenses grew by 6% almost to $3 trillion.

Most of all expenses on the hardware (personal computers, servers, storage systems, peripheral equipment, etc.) - grew by 16% to more than $661 billion. Last time so high growth rate showed a segment of the hardware more than 10 years ago, in 1996. Expenses on DWH grew by 14%, the PC - for 11%, servers - for 9%.

Growth of software costs and service was not so considerable as growth of equipment costs, - only 4% and 2% respectively. It is connected with intentions of many companies to pass to more active implementation of cloud computing in 2011 that forced to postpone project implementation, especially in the end of the year, experts explain.

On the first places on expenses on IT such areas as cloud, social computing, data storage and mobile services. As stated in the report of Gartner (October, 2011), in 2010 $74 billion were spent by the companies for public cloud services that made only about 3% of the general indicators of expenses.

See Also

• IT market of Europe
• IT market of Russia
• Trends of world IT market
• ICT (world market)

Notes