Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Gartner Technology Maturity Cycle

Methodology

Hype cycle is a graphical representation of the penetration, adaptation and social impact of specific technologies. The term was coined by Gartner. Since 1995, the latter has been using this technique to describe and assess the enthusiasm that brings new technological solutions to users.
Gartner researchers believe that the research they implement and the accompanying infographics help professionals separate "dreams" from reality. In particular, in this way, Chief information officer and CEOs of companies can make more accurate decisions about the use or not use of new products.

The S-curve depicted in the graph has five sections - the reference innovation runs through each over time.

"Launch of technology" - the emergence of technology and the beginning of discussion of its prospects in narrow circles of professionals and developers. Then the involvement of enthusiasts and lovers in the discussion to try everything new - with the growing popularity of innovation among such people, advertising hype and excitement are growing.

"Peak inflated expectations." There comes a point when everyone is already talking about technology. The first companies or followers appear who are trying to apply the technology to themselves in full, trying to get business advantages from it. At this stage, it is too early to take innovation under its wing, says Gartner.

"The abyss of disappointment." It turns out that the technology is full of weaknesses, shortcomings, restrictions. There is disappointment, often it comes to recognizing the technology as a failure on the part of both consumers and the media. The product may remain in this "abyss" forever, but Gartner researchers say that you should not forget about the innovation at this stage.

"Enlightenment Slope." Really good technologies, after some adaptation, find application. As a rule, if at least 5% of the potential audience accepted the innovation, the second, "corrected and supplemented" generation of the product is released. Critics in the media are getting much less, because other innovations have appeared and everyone is busy praising them ("peak of high expectations"). Developers fix their mistakes, the technology is becoming more convenient, its real audience is growing, and over time interest in the product again arises, albeit less than in the days of the "peak." After the middle of the "slope," it's too late to be interested in investments in technology: everyone who could has already invested.

"Productivity Plateau." The result of climbing the "slope of enlightenment," painstaking work on errors, turns out to be a "plateau of productivity." The technology has won its place in the market, has become a convenient tool or solution in a certain area, a given - it is used by at least 20% of the target audience. The media recall such a technology mainly in order to compare another innovation with it.

As of October 2011, Gartner releases hype cycles for more than 1.9 thousand developments and about 75 IT, business and consumer technology markets. Gartner has so abandoned its tool that no one decides to use something similar, everyone is only actively quoting the results of the research^[1] did the^[1].

How to apply hype cycles

Alexander Barinov, head of the analytical IBS department (formerly an employee of Market-Visio, representative office Gartner in), Russia spoke about the practical benefits and scale of the use of hype cycles:

"As with many analytical tools, everything is ambiguous here. Probably, intuitively, experts already understand at what stage of the life cycle this or that technology is, and the hype cycle is rather just a visual and beautiful marketing tool for technology developers. But the relative location of various adjacent or competing technologies, as well as feedback from analysts and experts about their viability and speed of adaptation, are a very useful tool for decision makers, especially from companies - potential users of this technology. "

History

2024:25 key emerging digital technologies in the world named

On August 21, 2024, Gartner named the 25 most significant emerging digital technologies in the world, the implementation of which can have a significant impact on a wide variety of industries. Many of the directions are somehow related to artificial intelligence.

Generative AI

GeneAI is able to have a significant impact on business processes in many areas. Such tools can create new content and ideas, including conversations, stories, images, videos and music. Genia algorithms make it possible to explore and analyze complex data in a new way. Thus, researchers can detect hidden trends and patterns that may not be apparent in other cases. With the help of Genia, you can optimize operations in all areas of business, including design, marketing, customer service, finance and sales. In addition, Genia models can complement employee workflows and act as effective assistants for organization employees at different levels. However, according to Gartner's research, the hype around GenAI is starting to subside, and companies are looking for use cases that will really benefit and recoup the investment.

GiI has experienced a peak of inflated expectations as the business continues to shift its focus from the excitement around underlying models to use cases that deliver ROI. This accelerates the development of autonomous AI. While the current generation of AI models lacks autonomy, research AI laboratories are accelerating the release of agents capable of dynamically interacting with the environment to achieve goals. However, this development process will be phased, "says Arun Chandrasekaran, Vice President Analyst at Gartner.

Multi-Agent Systems

AI platforms of this type consist of several independent (but interactive) agents, each of which is able to perceive the environment and take certain actions. Agents can be AI models, software, robots and other objects. Several agents are able to work towards a common goal beyond the capabilities of individual agents. Conventional AI focuses on creating individual agents for specific uses, which limits the potential business value of such systems. By using multiple standalone agents together, you can solve complex problems while creating more adaptable, scalable, and reliable solutions. Multi-agent systems can also succeed in environments that require decentralized decision-making.

AI TRiSM

AI Trust, Risk and Security Management (AI TRiSM) is one of the major emerging technologies on a global scale, according to Gartner. Analysts mean AI TRiSM a comprehensive program to proactively identify and mitigate risks. The AI TRiSM concept includes solutions and methods for model and application transparency, anomaly detection, data protection, monitoring, etc. In fact, AI TRiSM is a framework that includes a set of risk control, privacy and security tools, as well as trust tools that help enterprises manage AI models and application lifecycles. This helps to achieve business goals.

Digital Client Twin (DToC)

This is a dynamic virtual representation of a client that reflects their behavior and learns to model and predict the actions, desires and needs of a particular consumer. Gartner analysts believe the real value of DToC lies in its integration with the digital supply chain twin (DSCT). Sharing these twins will enable more efficient and faster decisions to improve business operations.

General AI

The concept is to develop software with intelligence similar to human intelligence. Such systems will be able to self-learn and perform tasks for which they were not originally intended. General AI will be able to solve various problems without human intervention, including those that arise in humans. In fact, we are talking about the creation of artificial intelligence systems with autonomous self-control, a sufficient degree of self-awareness and the ability to master new skills. General AI is a strong artificial intelligence that, despite a lack of basic knowledge, can perform tasks by applying cognitive abilities similar to human ones. Creating such AI requires a wider range of technologies, data and relationships than those underlying modern models.

Other emerging digital technologies on Gartner's list include:

· Large action models;

· Machine clients;

· Humanoid working robots;

· Autonomous agents;

· Reinforcement training;

· Software engineering with AI support;

· Native cloud;

· Gitops;

· Internal portals for developers;

· Engineering of tips;

· Webassembly;

· Spatial calculations;

· Superapplications;

· 6G Network ·;

· Cellular architecture; cyber security

· Digital immune system;

· Protection against disinformation;

· Federated Machine Learning;

· Homomorphic encryption;

· Supercomputer Computing with AI.^[1]

2019: Five technology trends

On September 2, 2019, Gartner released the 2019 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies study, which tracks 29 rapidly evolving technologies. In total, analysts highlight five technology trends that rely on artificial intelligence and a number of other concepts, will influence user experience and help organizations take advantage of digital ecosystems, according to the Information Age portal.

{{quote 'author
= noted "' Brian Burke, Gartner VP Research "'|" Technological innovation has become the key to competitive differentiation. The pace of change in technology continues to accelerate, forcing business and technology decision makers to stay ahead of the curve. To assess the potential of new technologies for business, technology leaders should maintain innovation profiles for which information can be gleaned from Hype Cycle, "}}

Sensor technology and mobility. Gartner believes that the combination of sensor technology and AI will allow machines to more realistically perceive the surrounding reality, mobility and interaction with objects will also come to the forefront. Sensor technology is a key component of the Internet of Things (IoT), responsible for collecting a huge amount of data. The AI-IoT clip promises new opportunities for finding new ideas that will significantly expand existing business scenarios, according to Gartner. For example, over the next decade, cloud-enhanced reality ( AR cloud) technology will declare itself, with the help of which a three-dimensional map of the world will be created. Its presence will allow creating new models of interaction and, in turn, new business models that can be monetized in the physical world. According to Gartner, enterprises that strive for mobility and want to adopt sensory developments should pay attention to the following technologies: 3D cameras for reading spatial information, depth and motion recognition of objects, augmented cloud reality, cargo delivery drones, flying autonomous vehicles and autonomous driving levels 4 (a human driver can take control) and 5 (a fully self-driving car).

"Augmented" person. Technology advances aimed at boosting people's cognitive and physical capabilities by making technology an integral part of the human body, analysts said. As an example, exoskeletons with electric drives or prosthetic limbs, which have characteristics that significantly enhance ordinary human capabilities, can be cited. Technologies focused on expanding human potential include biochips, personification, advanced intelligence, emotional AI, immersive workspaces, and biotechnology (cultured or artificial tissues).

Postclassical calculations and communications. Classical computing architectures are constantly being improved both through mathematical methods and through technical innovations - more efficient processors, memory compression and increased bandwidth. Following Moore's law, classical basic technologies of computing, communication and integration have made significant strides, but over time there will be entirely new approaches that could seriously affect them. For example, a few years later, a constellation of satellites is expected to be deployed in Earth orbit, which will cover the whole world with a high-speed Internet connection. This means that 48% of households will receive access to the Internet using small satellites - this will open up wide opportunities for economic growth in countries and regions where access to the network has been difficult. Businesses shouldn't lose sight of technologies like 5G, next-generation memory, satellite internet and nanoscale 3D printing.

Digital ecosystems are an interdependent group of entities (organizations, people and objects) that share digital platforms to achieve mutually beneficial goals. Digitalization has led to the reconstruction of classical value chains in favor of stronger, more flexible and more sustainable value networks that consistently generate new products and services. In this technology category, Gartner advises taking a closer look at DigitalOps, knowledge graphs, synthetic data, decentralized Internet and decentralized autonomous organizations.

Advanced AI and analytics. Advanced analytics includes offline or semi-autonomous validation of data or content using sophisticated methods and tools beyond traditional business intelligence (BI).

{{quote 'author
= noted "' Brian Burke, Gartner VP Research "'|" Advanced AI is increasingly being used in applications that are sensitive to delay (e.g. autonomous navigation), subject to network disruption (remote monitoring, natural language processing, facial recognition), or heavily use data (video analytics),}}

Gartner advises to pay attention to adaptive machine learning, advanced AI, edge analytics, AI capable of making decisions (explainable AI), AI platform as a service, transfer training, generative and adversarial networks and graph analytics.^[2]

2017

2016: NFC payments at their peak

2013: Analysts predict close interaction between machines and people

In August 2013, Gartner ^[3] another Hype Cycle, which focuses on the interaction of machines and people, which was reflected in the growing expectations of users from technologies such as smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of Things. Researchers believe that the relationship between people and technology will deepen, closing the gap between them.

Gartner, August 2013

Vice President GartnerJackie Fenn, commenting on the conclusions of the next Hype Cycle, however, warned against a lopsided and fairly common view of the future of interaction between people and machines, when it is assumed that electronic systems will be able to completely replace a person. In fact, this trend manifests itself in different ways: an increase in the number of people using electronic devices in work, virtual human assistants also appear, or when, for example, a robot works together with a warehouse employee in areas where maximum physical effort is needed.

Enterprises will increasingly use all three of these schemes of collaboration between people and machines, according to Gartner, to increase productivity and create competitive advantages. At the same time, the quality of relations between people and machines deepens: "Machines, for example, learn to recognize the shades of a person's voice, and people learn to better understand machines through the Internet of things, and they all become more intelligent by working together," Fenn believes.

In Hype Cycle, our reflection is a lot of relevant technologies:

• Technologies complement people: bioacoustic sensing, 3D bioprinting, brain-computer interfaces, speech-to-speech translations, "nosebleed" user interfaces, augmented reality, gesture control and others.

• Technology replaces humans: volume and holographic displays, autonomous vehicles, mobile robots and virtual assistants.

• Machines and people work together: autonomous vehicles, mobile robots, natural query language, virtual assistants with powerful intelligence like IBM Watson (now being tested in the field of medicine).

• Machines better understand people and the environment: bioacoustic sensing, smart dust, brain-computer interfaces, affective computing, biochips, 3D scanners, natural query and response language (NLQA), content analysis, mobile health monitoring, gesture management, methods, biometric authentications location intelligence, speech recognition.

• People better understand machines: the Internet of Things, M2M communications, mesh networks based on sensors and activity streams.

• People and machines boost intelligence: quantum computing, prescribing analytics, NLQA, big data, in-RAM computing systems, cloud solutions, in-RAM analytics and predictive analysis.

2012

Gartner named the key technologies influencing the global IT market in 2012 (as part of the annual Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies study). Among them are named NFC payments, cloud computing and media tablets. Analysts believe that it is these technologies that have advanced greatly since 2011, so that now a plateau of 2 to 5 years is predicted for them, and not 5-10 years, as expected a year ago.

Gartner, August 2012

At the peak of high expectations in 2012 were bring your own device (BYOD, implies the ability to use its devices in the workplace), 3D printing and social analytics, as well as private clouds.

At the first stage, the stage of strong interest in the new products that have just appeared, for example, there are technologies such as 3D scanning, quantum computers, holographic displays. The border position between "novelties" and technologies at the peak of high expectations is occupied by crowdsourcing, big data, gamification, HTML5, hybrid cloud systems.

Meanwhile, in 2012, the global IT market was already thoroughly disappointed in cloud computing, M2M, in-memory analytics, virtual reality and other recent "new products."

At the peak of popularity were:

• crowdsourcing - data collection by users
• Big Data is a topic related to data mining, that is, the search for patterns in large amounts of data
• gamification - turning routine activities into games (we published a detailed article on this topic)
• HTML5
• hybrid cloud computing
• wireless power
• 3D printing (the first home 3D printer saw the light this year)
• BYOD - Bring Your Own Device, using your own computers at work. This is also called "consumerization of IT"
• processing complex events - extracting patterns from a large number of events
• social analytics
• private cloud computing
• app stores
• augmented reality
• databases running in RAM

Compared to last year, Internet television has slipped from the peak of popularity, tablets have advanced to the "slope of enlightenment," passing the "abyss of disappointment," activity streams (streams of user actions like the Facebook feed) have disappeared from view altogether, as well as group purchases - last year's hype around services in the spirit of Groupon ended in nothing.

2011

Let's try to get acquainted with some notable technologies, the media reaction to which is visible from the 2011 hype cycles.

Three-dimensional bioprinting. It is contemplated that human organs suitable for implantation can be created by 3D printing. The 3D printer lays thin layers of tissue cells on top of each other, guided by detailed scanning data of the printed organ. Today, in practice, pieces of skin and bone fragments are already obtained, successfully engrafted in laboratory mice. Experts from Gartner believe that the future, in which you can easily print the missing kidney or even the heart, will come very soon. Certainly not in the next ten years - this is evidenced by the very restrained, if not sluggish, reaction of the media to the new product.

Mobile robots. Robotics has existed for a long time, but in recent years, publications about mobile robots are more and more common, by the way, there are much more of them than publications about three-dimensional bioprinting. Many companies are making notable strides in developing prototypical robots that can move - for example, the American robot MABEL can run at a speed of almost 11 km/h. True, he needs to "rely" on a special bar for this, so he can only run in a circle (see Science in detail, N 6). "Now the excitement is gaining momentum, but according to Gartner, many, many years will pass before mobile robots become ubiquitous, appear in commercial use," said Mister Barinov.

Training gamification - the use of game elements to stimulate interest in the learning process. Now gaming is approaching the "peak of inflated expectations." One example of this idealistic attitude is the domestic project LinguaLeo, which won the 2011 Business Innovative Technologies competition (you can read about other contestants in Science, N 4-5). The developers believe that they managed to make learning English extremely exciting and exciting by using gaming mechanisms that resemble those that run the most addictive (that is, addictive), which means popular and profitable online RPGs.

Konstantin Podstreshny, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Navigator of the game world": "People exaggerate the addictiveness of video games. Often, in the view of people not familiar with the topic, any video game is almost a digital drug. Meanwhile, 90% of games are quite boring and cannot keep the audience for long. Creating a really exciting game is incredibly difficult. There are only a few such games. And if someone is going to make a training game of the level of "World of Warcraft," let him first make just a competitor to "World of Warcraft." So far, no one has succeeded. "

By the way, in the game of training there are also specific areas, for example, simulators for the military. "Some video game studios are also developing simulators for the military. There are few of them, they are quite schematic, but they really exist. Usually such projects are ordered in order to reduce the cost of real training (in no case can it be replaced). Regardless of whether they are controlled by an airplane or a platoon of soldiers, they can hardly be called a game in the usual sense of the word. The principle of "learning through pleasure" does not work there, and it is unlikely that you will be able to relax in such games, "says Mr. Podstorshny.

Judging by the Gartner estimates of the entire field of gamification, which is another five to ten years before the "plateau of productivity," "LinguaLeo" is waiting for a rapid fall in the near future. If those working on the project do not reveal all its shortcomings and correct them, the project will face the fate of the digitization of libraries.

Global digitization of libraries. The idea died without ever getting out of the "abyss of disappointment." You can not dream of uniting all the significant libraries of the world into one that is widely available via the Internet. The main obstacle to the digitization of library collections was copyright. Libraries can freely digitize materials that are in the public domain - in other cases, it is necessary to conclude contracts with holders of rights. Copyrights for texts in different countries expire 50-70 years after the death of the author, and in the West these terms are growing. In Russia, amendments to the Civil Code were adopted, designed to allow libraries to digitize materials without the consent of the authors, as well as exchange such digitizations among themselves. However, the state does not allocate money for digitization to everyone, and if it does, then less than necessary. Libraries do not have enough of their own funds. So if we have digitization and move (in particular, we digitize almost all dissertations that fall into Leninka), then, as elsewhere in the world, this happens locally, too slowly and in too small volumes in order to talk about globality.

Mobile app stores were rapidly gaining popularity along with the active spread of mobile platforms. "The company's App Store Apple appeared in 2008 (the first such store appeared a little earlier - GetJar), in 2011, developers selling their applications on the App Store received a total of more than $1.5 billion. Since then, the Google Android Market, Nokia Ovi Store (now just Nokia Store), Research In Motion BlackBerry App World, Microsoft Windows Marketplace for Mobile, Palm Software Store have appeared. Even large operators have launched their own stores - App Orange Shop, 360. Vodafone Thus, from 2008 to the present, the technology has run almost the entire curve and in less than two years it will be at the stage of the generally accepted standard, "said Mr. Barinov.

Location-aware applications. Due to a slight decrease in revenues from the sale of voice traffic, mobile operators were interested in expanding the range of services provided. By 2009, many cellular phones with built-in GPS receivers appeared, the use of cellular network protocols (GPRS) made it possible to increase the accuracy of these devices and provide two-way communication with navigation satellites. Then applications using user location data were at the very bottom of the "enlightenment slope" - they almost began to be used not only in highly specialized areas, such as security car systems, and Gartner believed that this technology was only two to five years away from being called the standard. Today, every second taxi driver has car navigators. Almost all modern smartphones are also equipped with navigators, so every owner of such a device can use the navigation function.

• Hype Cycle Gartner for 2011

2006

Notes